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US Begins Massive Military Build Up Around Iran, Sending Up To 4 New Carrier Groups In Region
As if uncontrollable economic contagion was not enough for the administration, Obama is now willing to add geopolitical risk to the current extremely precarious economic and financial situation. Over at Debkafile we read that the president has decided to "boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants." With just one aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran, the Nobel peace prize winner has decided to send a clear message that peace will no longer be tolerated, and has decided to increase the US aircraft carrier presence in the region by a 400-500% CAGR.
From Debka:
Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.
It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.
The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)
Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
We can't wait for Iran to feel completely unthreatened by this escalation and to decide to take no action whatsoever as the Nobelists push it even more into a corner from which the only escape, to a rational player, would be outright aggression... Which begs the question just how an irrational player would react.
h/t Mark
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An escalation of geopolitical tensions at this moment is the very worst thing that can happen to the fragile world economy.
The 9-fingers President of my country (you know who) reached an acceptable agreement with the persian leader about uranium enrichment. But the Obama administration insists on the escalation of geopolitical tensions... Or Obama is very stupid, or he's doing it purposefully, with some unconfessable hidden objective...
Voce acha que Obama e o real "rei" dos Estados Unidos? Ele somente sabe pregar as palavras como os "Elite" querem.
Ele nao sabe nada. Ele e um aparelho.
I think escalation is a good call. Things are a bit "squirrelly" right now. Sometimes when the family squabbles around the kitchen table, Dad has to "tink" a glass to get everyone's attention and ask everyone to say grace and give thanks.
I think that is all that is happening now. It's good the see the Germans there. That sends good vibes.
LOL,
yes, I can see how escalating a tense and fragile political situation that could potentially result in nuclear war is alike to 'tinking a glass'... great analogy! /scm off/
Well, I guess they are about to take the UN resolution allowing to search Iran's shipping seriously. Four carrier groups is definite overkill though.
Anyone wants a bet, there will be unrest in Iran this summer? Just wait till Oil hits 60.
For the rational player, aggresion would be the wrong choice. We'll see about the rationality.
Debka file... please. I'm consistently amazed how this junk news source is taken as some kind of reliable fountain of truth. This is a normal deployment - nothing more. The real issue is what's happening on the Korean peninsula. No way is the USA going to do anyting w/the Iranians and jeopardize the (very) fragile detente in Iraq
And buying USO in a contango market with unprecedented volatility in the front spread... genius move LongJohn... LOL! .....CLN0: I'm $58 bid
Maybe, but in that particular case, such a move is to be expected by semi-rational government. They passed UN resolution, now they are supporting it by a very firm commitment without realizing they are playing a game of chicken. (those often do end up deadly.)
The ironic part, suddenly all is on the same ship. We all know why Russians go along (cancellation of anti-missile defense in the EU, the only reasonable step by the current administration-huge costs). I wonder, what did it take to get the Chinese on board. (hm, suddenly we don't hear the O team making statements on the devaluation of their currency.)
This is all very simple.
Pump the economy until your friends steal as much as they can.
When the pump fails, start a war to distract Boobus Americanus.
Put your friends into the munitions business.
Blow everything to hell.
Rinse, repeat.
The Arabian (Persian) Gulf has only enough room for two carriers to fly aircraft at one time. The others would just circle around and try to stay out of the way.
The author here must never have been in a CATCC.
+ 100
This show of force is just to make sure that Athens pays its bills.
European banks have little faith that the ECB will get their required pledged Euro QE funds to bail European banks holding tons of crap sovereign bonds ! So LIBOR sky rockets and banks no longer do nightly repos with each other and here we are now. Credit markets freezing up and counter party risk going into panic mode. We now have Lehman 2.0 but world central banks spent all their ammo in QE 1 after the Lehman 1.0 failure and panic!
In a nut shell this is very bad and how it all eventually ends, who knows! War with Iran??
Roughly every six months, the US 5th fleet rotates carrier groups. Since about the middle of Dubya's first term, Debka, Rense and others have gone nuts every six months when the rotation takes place. Will they headline the returning carrier group? "US cuts presence in Persian Gulf in half" I bet not, they never do.
Perhaps we should have a contest to help military have code name for the conflict. My entry. . . Operation Sand to Glass.
+1000
I propose: Operation If Two Wrongs Don't Make a Right, Let's Try Three"
It's much too long to fit on a flight suit patch, though, and I don't see a viable acronym there, so no way it gets used. Still, I like the sound of it.
MP
Having carefully selected the mother (or father?) of all morons as my avatar, I'm ordinarily a humorous sort of fellow. So, I usually choose to forgo entering into pointless arguments, because my mother always told me that arguing with idiots is futile; first, they drag you down to their levels, then beat you up with their superior experience.
However, I want to call out the junker who thinks that there is anything wrong with my statement. Who is the internet hero, the brave electronic warrior, the courageous commando of the remote control that DOESN'T think provocative military action in yet another far-flung theater is a bad idea?
Show yourself if you dare. Offer a thoughtful rebuttal to whatever it is about my comment with which you took issue. After we're finished with our war of words, I'll then encourage you to crawl back to whatever job it is that you have, promptly resign, and then go down to your local recruitment office. Order them to put you in the position most likely to get you assigned to the Persian Gulf, serve at least as long as I did (hint: you'll need to make a career of it), and THEN come back here and junk my comment.
I've reached my limit with war-mongers. I've had enough of Karl Rove, GWB, Cheney, et. al. And yes, I've had enough of Obama as well.
Hello! My name is Herr Suns(sch)tein. And yes, IAm an internet hero, best junker zu Dienste.
Guten tag! Will you be having the Prawn Goebbels or the Hermann Goering?
MP
Operation OMG WTF
Perfect for the "know nothing", acronym military culture. Can I please have a shoulder patch for that! Next best thing to "Birther", "Truther", or "Tenther", "Three Percent".
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_k07pirzBU34/Sss4tDDWN1I/AAAAAAAACuE/3_UOE7CXts...
Damn racists. When will they learn to get along? Current univeristy life would straigthen them out. Don't they know it's not cool to have an opinion au contraire daily MSM?
actually its Operataion OMG WTFBoom!
Operation Mass Distraction
Operation Leggo My Oil-O
Operation Ur A Dinnerjacket
Operation Desert Steal
Operation Spanish Civil War: Part Deux
?
Operation Sand In Eyes
Tin Foil Hat on:
Evacuation drills conducted in Tampa Bay area banks.
Georgia National Guard and Reserves receive mobilization orders.
Large numbers of North Korean troops massing on border with South Korea. (marching south for something to eat?)
Tin Foil Hat off.
No way dude. This is some serious shit. Toxic fumes threaten local communties - this is very worthy of serious mobilization plans but the current administration is more worried about saving face - until it's too late.
FL is probably going to start burning approaching slicks. Major evacuation moves are in order for that. It's totally ******.
It's my family WW. Grew up there. Was a kid in New Orleans too. If only killing something would help...[she said vaguely so as to not be seen as inciting anything specific].
Where is Chumba?
MsCreant - Once I lived in the mountains out West where the green grass grew all around and the silent black helicopters murmurred overhead. I learned a lot from the locals, my friends and neighbors. Plausible deniability became an art form.
Now it's all medical/medicinal and the Wild West is over ... for now.
bringin it, i had a summer job growing pot in oregon in the mountains. Alone for weeks at a time, had 500 plants chest high when the helicopters came. Could not hear it till it was on top of us. it was a fun summer. The girl and i got away.
Ah the good ole days.
I once told my relatives back East about dodging black, almost silent, gun toting CAMP helicopters. That's when they all agreed I was certifiable.
Yes, Debka is a little shaky at times. Remember they had the whole Saddam family hiding in Syria in March 2003. They're kind of the Israeli Drudge Report. Still, I tend to believe this one. Just as O-Man opposed the Arizona bill because he needs the electoral votes in New Mexico, Colorado and Florida in 2012, Barry knows he's in trouble with a certain South Florida constituency, both because of his dissing of Israel and because he screwed up the Gulf of Mexico response, which is now going to foul up a lot of Boca real estate. Guy can't catch a break. So showing some muscle vs. Iran could regain some cred. Like Jr. and Clinton before him (remember how Bubba used to launch a cruise missile attack vs. Saddam whenever the heat got too hot re: Monica), Obama has figured out nothing sells like a good hostile action against the Muslim world. It's all domestic politics, all the time, and nothing has anything to do, ever, with the "merits," cause they ain't any.
Pop open a cold one and enjoy gang. Got gold?
John,
Sometimes I'm con-fuzed by your posts here, in regards to your blog - you definitely don't fit a mold.
BTW - your blog is f'ing awesome.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGvlNufdeL8
Us Technology for sure...and then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTINGadWfs
when all else fails break out the tried and true bush tactics. a good war to divert us from how the elites are stealing from us, polluting our water, etc. thsi has been predicted by this site.
I have to agree with the "rotation" people... This is just an incredibly shortsighted attempt at misdirection if the escalation is legit.
Pay no attention to the mollusc behind the curtain...
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2010/05/18/not-another-war-mr-president/
Let the folks at Anti-war.com help you out.
I may be dating myself but I recall a time when an economic crisis could be handled by a simple rate cut.
Fixed
As I recall that was back in the days before rates were permanently set at zero.
The Messiah 2.0 needs a multi-thousand point rally in the DOW. He knows that this ought to do it.
it's all Bush's fault
Someone was frantically flagging posts as junk in this discussion.
I think this plan was set in motion awhile ago and Iran went and undermined it by making a deal with Turkey.
I really wish Iran would just quiet down for a few months, stop its program and thumb their nose at the US.
The US does not need another front on this war on "Terror". What the hell are they thinking? The economy is fragile... idiots.
It's crap like this that creates conspiracy theories. Obama talks a good game but it's all talk apparently.
+10
The last thing we need to even give attention to right now.This economy is taking the standing 8 count and we have people mouthing off and poking chests out all over the globe..
The dictator's ploy:
oil spill, market down----
create a distraction
why not a war?
in time for mid-term elections, also
Not surprised.
And Iran has three big body guards in China and Russia and India too. They are not sweating. You know who should be sweating but probably are not? The politicians of the US. You guys messed up, and everybody knows it!
I don't think Iran has anybody, including their own citizens. If there was a move into Iran, I suspect they will fold like a house of cards. Their citizenry know they get a mega-funded democracy if the Americans win.
Cannuck with 2 passports - this is 2010. That movie played in 2003. After all the lies were exposed, it won't play now. You have to come up with a better sequel.
Besides, everyone but you knows the US is broke.
The Iranian population is pro-USA. They want democracy. The Iranians are looking over the fence at Iraq and at some point they will decide they want more of "that". The world is not perfect but Iraqis have a better life than Iranians.
There are players in this world, and there are spectators. The biggest "lie" to pass off is that spectators are made to feel they control the game. Players own the game.
After all is said and done, you can plug the spectators back in and let them vent as much as they want.
The bottom line Bringin It is you speak for a politically ineffective, naive constituency. Your concerns will be considered by the players when the time is right for them. That is how the world works. It may not be pretty but those are the cards you are dealt with.
Oh yeah, what Iranian wouldn't want some of "that" like Iraq got? I mean it's everyone's dream to see their family slaughtered, the nation razed, corruption, insurgencies, car bombs in markets, the power off, the infrastructure in ruins. How could they possibly NOT want us to invade?
Ain't that what they got now?
Trav, good on you for replying. Clearly, Canucklehead doesn't regard you, me, or anyone else here who's not war-mongering as "players," so I just quietly acquiesced without answering. After all, I'm sure he'll plug me back in after his war is over and he returns home.
Seriously, where do these people come from? Here I thought Canadians were a peace-loving bunch.
MP
I can see it now..We need Americans to send in all of your Gold/Silver/copper/Aluminum/steel etc. etc. So we can fight this war on terror and keep our families safe..
Gold going down again.
China has shown they would rather buy gold than save their equities....let us see if they changed their game plan....
Maybe it is all over?
I think the market is going to be flooded with all kinds of things because people are having to get cash to make margin calls. But that is only a guess.
That has been the story. Money runners must feel like they are juggling from a tight rope nowadays!
Imagine the pain of Au going down way below $1,000. It wouldn't be worth the effort to scare fly-over territory mom 'n pops holding physical, but it's scary either way. I wonder if they would go that far. We are on the precipice of complete and total collapse. I've always thought that GOLD $10,000!!! claims were supercilious in that general trade (electronic and street) would be completely skewed beyond sanity.
Agreed MsCreant - In November 2009, near the depths of the Lehman deleveraging, I manned-up and bought silver miners. In a little over a year, I was up 150%. Fundimentals will triumph ... at some point, IMHO.
Up now, and fast....silver too :)
Gold is down.
The clue is that the move is Less than stocks.
sounds like serious bs....
where are the carriers?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/where.htm
rt
Whats the Odds on the World Cup going off without bloodshed?
No attack on Iran until this is done
http://bostonwealth.blogspot.com/2010/05/no-attack-on-iran-until-this-is-done.html
Until what is done?
Making the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant with a new pipeline on line.
He did not say that! You must be clairvoyant!
Send BP over there to sink some deep sea wells, that should take care of Iran pretty quickly.
Call up Kim Jong: "Dewd, I know you won't believe it but we'll PAY YOU to do some dirty work over here in the Persian. Ya feel me?"
Oh there'll be no tip, but on your deathbed you will achieve total consciousness. That is kind of how this whole American Dream is working out!
I've chased down these rumors from Debka before. I went as far as researching which carriers were leaving San Diego en route to the Gulf. Every time it was a rotation to relieve a carrier group that had been on patrol for six months. Nothing here to worry about - Debka is just trolling for eyes.
I have a feeling they have zeroed in on Osama's resting place in Iran. What a catch for the democrats if they can take him alive. Obama is probably about to give Iran a choice; the three kids held hostage and Osama, for the US not killing the clerics, the army, and the ruling political party leaders.
osama's been dead for 9 yrs u moron
bin Laden? Really
Probably. He hasn't produced any video, or audio, in that time. The only video that the CIA said was "definately" Osama, showed someone who was very clearly not him.
Usama bin Laden is still alive. Obama stated that he would invade Pakistan to get him, if necessary. Any military build up now around Iran must mean that UBL is hiding in Iran and Obama is carrying out his promise.
Joe Biden has been out of the news coverage lately. He has been on secret foreign missions of negotiating with the rational terrorists of the Taliban.
This was a planned deployment for the Truman. The carrier strike group was planned to disembark this spring.
Heck.. we can't even stop this!
The US administration, while urging foreign companies to cut business ties with Iran, has given contracts worth nearly $880 million to seven foreign firms involved in Iran's energy sector, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) said on Wednesday.
The seven companies were RepsolRepsol of Spain, TotalTotal of France, Daelim Industrial Company of South Korea, ENIENI of Italy, PTT Exploration and Production of Thailand, Hyundai Heavy Industries of South Korea, and GS Engineering and Construction of South Korea, Reuters reported.
It drew criticism from US legislatures in both parties who say the government should not be contracting with companies that help Iran's economy.
Foreign companies that invest in Iran's energy sector can be sanctioned under US law.
Still waiting.
Anyone legit source confirmation of anything interesting?
Didn't think so.
Don't get me wrong. Read, think and speculate. But never believe just one source, especially this one.
I have a good one.. just a minute and I will post a link!
Here.. who can figure out what is going on here and why this has to do with the Iran attack that is forthcoming!
http://bostonwealth.blogspot.com/2010/05/what-f-is-going-on-here.html
deleted
Bah, the US can't afford another war front... doesn't have the servicemen and women I mean. At least not without bringing back the draft. The Fed can always print the money, that's never been a problem, natch.
Have some DK's to cool you off:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A95yLXVgrn4&playnext_from=TL&videos=fXgEw5F1Zgc
"... the economy is looking bad let's start another war..."
or maybe you're old enough to appreciate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52scMVXF2mc&playnext_from=TL&videos=Coh-MtoYYqk
That's it for my mystical musical mystery interlude. Enjoy...hippy.
Regards
Boots on the ground is irrelevant at this point. Bomb the "Alloo Akbah" out of them and use Xe to clean up specific strategic necessities.
If the World Trade Center was such a target for the muzzies,
It does make one wonder why that black rock in Mecca has not been retaliated against. Or, if a suitcase nuke would be bad for NYC, how would the same thing affect the annual Pilgramage to Mecca? Would the muzzies still attend and expect to be protected by Muhammed (PBUH). Would the House of Saud get the message? Is a return to the 50 years ago palaces of mud really what they want?
re. World Trade Center- targeted by who? You better watch it Augustus dude. They were able to bring down Bldg7 without an airplane.
debka = zionist pravda.
They are nowhere near that together. I read em' daily, for comic relief.
If you want to see how algos cannot make money you may want to check out the trade of myself and Kid Dynamite had tonight:
http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/
Seems programs cannot trade stocks higher because they cannot sell to anyone. Sounds about right?
Off just a bit. US futures are Green on Bloomberg.
In levity, and as my second post, Little Big Man is on TCM right now. Pretty much sums it all up.
Hardly a shock - hyperinflation... then war. Time honoured shit.
well come on all you big strong men, uncle sam needs your help again, he's got himself in a terrible jam, way down yonder in old iran. put down your books and pick up a gun, gonna to be a whole lot of fun!! (c.j.fish@woodstock)
Country Joe! Good to have you back!
Did they threaten to sell light-sweet in Euros at the oil bourse again?
Don't forget to wag the dog...
Iranian stock market at 42 year high. The Fed just bought a load of puts.
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100509/BUSINESS/705099898/1005
Good call.
It's probably that simple, interpreting Fed to mean Goldman.
Looks pretty quiet out there.
http://www.navy.mil/view_single.asp?id=85531
USS Eisenhower...for some reason that name is familiar...didn't he make a speech once about something complex, military and industrial? Now what was it....
Eisenhower, he say
I commanded the military supplied by US industrialists to kick some complex German ass. Job Done.
Sounds like a prelude to a blockade to me...
Blockade is an act of war. Only one thing worse than a nuclear war:
Losing a nuclear war.
The DEBKA theme song is "Wishing will make it so".
I have been reading Debka for years because I love their theories.
You have to be careful, though. Much of their reports have never panned out.
There is also a propaganda element built in, but it is often fascinating.
It's Debka. If they could expose Bat Boy preparing for war in the middle east, they would.
Heard the same rumblings back when friends of mine were refitting B-52s for conventionals before rotating to Diego Garcia. Next Desert Shield. Gotta build first... leverage up but sadly things go wrong when playing.
Endgame = oil $400 when Strait of Hormuz is plugged with sunk tankers.
How's that economy workin for ya US?
That's how I see it.
Economy not so good. Just better than everywhere else. Write home if you find work.
Yeah, I've been through so many of these naval movement scares (re: Iran) since about 2005 that I'm inured to them.
People will always say "war is right around the corner." It's not. If the US goes to war with Iran, there will be massive casualties, and whomever does it will have ridiculous levels of social unrest to deal with at home.
And yeah, that shitty blue water navy will get sent to the sea floor. I think it would play in Peoria like...
"What the fuck? My house is in foreclosure, my daughter is pimping herself out on Craigslist so she can buy a new pair of shoes, and Barry just sank a bajillion dollars of worthless hardware to wag the dog?"
Societies do change over generations.
However, people forget that the 1970s was a period of severe domestic terrorism from ethnic communities, academics (Weather Underground, SLA, etc.), and the government. Those conflicts can best be understood as conquests for welfare.
The academic terrorists shook down the state to create a massive network of training camps (it's insulting to refer to them as "universities"). Both faces of the ruling classes consented, because it was in their interests to slow the pace of social growth and ensure obedience. The terrorists were never a serious threat. They were useful idiots.
To think that anyone really controls these terrorists is rather fallacious. They're the natural consequence of insane ideologies.
State-supported corporations are easily taxed and controlled. "Small businesses" can be brought to heel by local bureaucrats through byzantine codes that make even the simplest business vulnerable to closure for various violations.
Ethnic/religious terrorists attacked for guarantees of housing and a certain number of make-work jobs to allow for a power bloc in the government.
I imagine that Barry - academic that he is - really believes that these old wars were settled decisively.
Like the Petraeus doctrine (just re-hashed American political pseudo-science), the 20th century counter-insurgency only remains viable so long as the dollar retains credibility.
It's been unraveling for decades.
The United States is split into many bloodthirsty factions that are only mollified by the lobbying culture in DC.
Pagan terrorists are kept as pets so long as the regime supports their apocalyptic beliefs (global cooling, global warming, the magical value of whales, ozone holes, mass extinctions, desertification, insoluable environmental damage).
Now, those guys just aren't a very large demographic. They appear larger than they really are because it's like a religion. They have priests that managed to convert many celebrities (which are best understood as demigods).
Once you stop enriching the priests, their violence-based religions should fade away quickly.
That's just one example. The CIA is a highly successful terrorist organization that has managed to escape widespread scrutiny for two generations now.
But all tyrannies end, eventually... they collapse.
Apostate,
Very well summarized and written.
Given that most posts must be written as streams of consciousness, I'm constantly amazed at what I read here.
I like dipping my toes in these streams. Keeps me sane here in India, where the consciousness of the larger picture is all but lost in Bollywood/TV/Hinglish/Indian Idolatory chatter.
Awesome.
Normally, I have an editor to clean up my messes.
My landlords are Indian!
I hope you folks manage to hang on to all the progress you've eked out over the years.
More regress than progress here Apostate. Don't count black tar roads, huge aircon buildings or mindless call center jobs for the young and restless as much pro-gress at all.
Funny, the Indian land-lords! Hope they are good folk.
Most folk are good folk.
It's them sociopaths, the plutocracy.
Let's send them to Pluto, where they come from.
For several days I warned of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators - and this has been confirmed by the recent Euro break out.
The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
You misunderstand the Great Bama, Tyler.
He's gathering the troops there to do one of two things:
1.) Surrender to Iran enmasse
or
2.) Attack Israel
OBangya will be attacking and conquering Kenya to recover the home of his birth before he does anything in Pakistan or Iran. His Kenyan brother needs work. Maybe he should apply for US citizenship because he fears persecution resulting from his relationship with Obangya. No real Muslim would launch a bullet against Iran to prevent an attack on Israel. Muhammed's (PBUH) man in Washington has both hands gripping his nuts with Axelrod watching and is enjoying every minute.
War between North and South Korea is more likely than any attack on Iran. If the South doesn't retaliate for the attack on their ship, the government will be routed at the next election, and the North will just become that much more brazen in it's dealings with the South.
Maybe he can throw his nobel peace prize at them...along with his purse. What a loser.
When the going gets tough, the tough start a distractive war. OBumma is so enraptured with the revisionist history of FDR and Keynesian tactics, he just thinks thats a playbook to go by this go round
I was anti-Taliban, pro-Afghanistan invasion. However, I think we've made our point since 9-11. Time to pick up our toys and go home.
Iraq? A good geo-political move, Iraq is quite the handy location for projecting power. Now just give it back to the Iraqis and keep some really big bases.
Iran? Can't invade Iran without full scale war, which no one wants. I hate Iran's Governement but don't want to have a war with them. Maybe a blockade a al Cuba to get them to give up the nukes. Something like that.
Instant [bad] karma - Why do you hate Iran's Governement? If you say you hate all or even most or maybe many governments I can understand. Serious question. Thanks
Serious answer. I'm Jewish and the Government of Iran has made it their top priorty to kill me, my people, and destroy my homeland.
I second this question. I don't know of ANY worthy governments on this planet. Iran has not acted as a bad country since the homeni years, all this bs about Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan is about strategy, about creating chaos in these areas to better help ourselves with their natural resources, and unjustly fomenting hate in western countries towards islamic countries.
We've been working the ground in Iran (and funding) for 20 years. Much easier that N Korea. Now, nearly half the population is "ripe" for doing deals with other powers believing they were robbed in the election. It's ripe. This includes most under 40, your prime force. That's why I'm inclined to believe something's brewing in Iran, more on the order of "civil strife".
I don't think we outright attack, invade, or pull bay of pigs. If it's real strife....who knows. People talk about paradigm shifts, this would be one of the two choices, really. How many else are there if you're looking objectively.
Were you anti-Taliban in the '80's?
The US has bases in KSA, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar (one of the largest you've never seen), among others. We didn't need Iraq as a "handy location."
Is it honestly your contention that the massive human death and injury toll, worsening destabilization of the region, inordinate financial costs, and squandered political goodwill can all be boiled down to "a good geo-political move?"
This isn't a theoretical exercise. It's not a water-cooler discussion, it's not a graduate thesis project, it's not some abstract philosophical construct. Those things that the US military is using are only "toys" to the defense contractors that make billions selling them. They are, in fact, weapons that are used on a daily basis to end people's lives. That you don't know those people, and apparently therefore don't care about them, doesn't provide you the license to be so flippant about war.
And if you're so unhappy with Iran's government, perhaps a bit of research about how it came to be is in order? While you're at the library, perhaps you could also familiarize yourself with the Bay of Pigs and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty?
Will we EVER learn that these little foreign adventures almost never end on a positive note?
No water cooler discussion here. Their words are deadly serious. Iran wants nuclear weapons to attack Israel, the US, and, other Western targets. They are on a mission from G-d. Their words.
Good news! You and I agree on something: words can be serious. Hence my earlier suggestion for us to all take a step or two back from the war drum ceremony.
Would you please be more specific? Who, exactly, is on a mission from God? Their entire population, or some hawks in power? If it's the latter, then they have more in common with the US than anyone is acknowledging.
You're pimping the same tripe that was trolled through the waters during the build up to the Iraq invasion. It makes me weary. I'm tired of demonizing others, especially when they've yet to do a damn thing to me or to anyone I know.
Please present proof of your assertion. If all you've got is more assertions, then we should just cease this discussion, as it won't get us anything other than he-said, he-said. I think, I THINK, that if we're planning to preemptively invade yet another country, we need more than some UN theatrics as justification.
Well, actually, Iraq demonstrated that that's all we need, which is why I throw up in my mouth a little bit every time this kind of talk crops up again.
I too am weary of reading about wars past, discussing current wars, and contemplating future wars. Most likely, like with North Korea, the world will do nothing while Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons.
The inevitable proliferation of nuclear weapons may make civilization as we have known it impossible. All it takes is a couple of people with a gripe to wipe out a city. How does the world live with that?
Frankly, I don't know.
Hey, look at that! We agree again. Thanks for a bit of insight into your thoughts; that helps.
You touched on the crux of the whole shebang in your last paragraph. The expansion of nuclear technology is inevitable. As long as we have it, others will want it. We're trying to deal with a new problem using old tactics (war). It's not working well. We need to try something, anything, else.
And you're also right: the world will likely not do much. It can't. Some things, this being one of them, are beyond our collective control. Even if actions were attempted, at best the inevitable might be postponed. At worst...?
Oppenheimer figured this out shortly after his work concluded. It's just taking the rest of us a bit longer to sort through all this.
And finally, our last point of agreement: I don't know what in the world to do either. I just don't think war's the answer to this one.
Iran wants nuclear weapons to protect itself against that racist genocidal regime you call a homeland - the only state in the region with nukes, and not enough balls to declare them openly.
You are not looking in the right places. Iranian citizens do not whish you any harm. They do not wish me any harm. The same is true of israeli citizens. The people of every country have few problems, quirrels and struggles with each other. It's the governments that do and demand they drag everyone into a cooperative or enemy polarization. Israel and iran constantly attack each others citizens because it's the only way they can keep both sets of citizens from revolting against thier own governments. War between citizens of countries is an illusion. Peace between govrnments is an illusion. The power hungry are never satisfied no matter what. Once control over their own citizens is achieved. They instantly focus on how to use it to control other peoples citizens. They never seek equality. Always strive for advantages over each other.
by MaxPower
on Fri, 05/21/2010 - 12:04
#365230
Great post...thank you very much, I could'n have said better myself !
Thanks very much, but don't let that stop you from contributing! I need all the help I can get in trying to beat back this latest charge of the net brigade. Yet another pointless war is exactly the very last thing any of us, anywhere, need right now.
MP
Come on Tyler!
DEBKA?
Debka: predictor of 10 of the last 3 wars.
+ha
The two reasons that this doesn't add up for me are that there's no propaganda machine spinning the need for us to do this full-time (yet), and more importantly, the US just plain doesn't have the manpower available to carry out such an operation. We're already stretched thin with Afghanistan and Iraq; where would we get the troops to make such an incursion? Besides, as others have pointed out on here, this would be the worst possible time to make such a move, given the fragility of global equity, debt and currency markets.
At the first whiff of a US build-up, all Iran would have to do is fire up some of their insurgents in Iraq and ask a few of global cells in Hezbollah (which they fund) to make a ruckus. They could also mine the hell out of the Strait of Hormuz and make things extremely difficult for us there as well. Also, us broadcasting such a move would give Iran an opportunity to (further) hide/protect their nuclear assets, which would be counter-productive to our interests.
Given all of the above, I just don't see this happening at this time.
So CSG-10 is leaving for a float. And so what if it's the Persian Gulf. Of all routine Naval deployments is this deployment more material than the last?
I know the Debkafile very well. Debka started with some pretty good insight and material information that even Jane's wasn't aware of. Over time, Debka stretched itself to nothing more than a rumor mill, sometimes stating the obvious, and twisting it in a manner that's more controversial. Similarly I find ZH following the same path: providing some awesome, detailed and timely information, and in striving continuance, starts picking from the bottom of the barrel. Yesterday's link to Oilprice.com was scraping the depths where the supposed 'frozen' oil blob is.
Debka is no longer reliable, and when they do post facts, they (mis)present them in such a manner to sway opinion.
If you really want to know what's going on, check out Jane's, Geopolitics or Stratfor (for that matter, ZH's link to RanSquawk is decent). If it's material, they'll post it...and without misrepresentation.
Being a loyal reading of ZH, I only request TD keeps up the good work on materiality and filter out the BS.
Ooh-rah!
What a bunch of little girls. You may know something about money but your general ignorance about politics and the operations the US carries out overseas is astounding.
I have less confidence in this place now.
This post is absurd.
Obama isn't going to attack Iran.
He doesn't think the US should have borders, he won't let troops in Hatii fly the American flag, he's "uncomfortable" with the word "victory", he (Thursday) just backslapped a foreign leader on the floor of the Congress as he badmouthed American laws and policies, he also just (3 or 4 days ago) announced he's going to create a new military medal for not fighting the enemy. He also also just announced that N. Korea's sinking of a S. Korean ship was "unacceptable" while he accepted it and did/will do nothing about it even though he's probably obligated under treaty to retaliate...
I mean, what planet are you on Tyler?
He's probably moving a bunch of military hardware near Iran so he can sell it or just give it to them.
One post isn't enough to make me lose respect for Tyler.
But yeah, as I mentioned earlier, I've seen enough of these "US fleet moves a little bit... war with Iran obviously imminent" stories to be well-jaded about them by now.
I can understand how a geopolitics newbie could be snowed by Debka.
Who the hell would be dumb enough to buy our shitty boats, by the way? If he could pull a hustle that brazen, I'd be proud of the bastard.
Oh noes, those pesky Iranians pose a threat to the whole world. They're the ones behind the worlds financial (manufactured) disaster.... and if you believe that I've got a bridge to sell you across the Pacific.
The whole Iran war is for a myriad of overlapping reasons:
1. Israel's perceived safety (not that the Iraq war made it any "safer").
2. Diversionary tactics now that the world is realising the world's economy is tanking, financial markets are gonna crash, Hyper-inflation/deflation will kick in and whole currencies will be wiped away. What better than an "enemy" and a war to blame it on. Watch in the coming year how Obama sells the lie to America that "higher gasoline prices is directly because and only because of the Iran war" - and nothing to do with the weakening dollar and petro-dollar hegemony collapsing.
3. With Iran removed (or at least that's what the US administration hopes, don't bet on it with all that's happened in the wider War on Terror), the US can carry on their march to global hegemonic empire, especially across the Middle East and Central Asia. Control of Central Asian oil and gas supplies will become much easier with Iran removed (and then they'll try to sort out the Russian and Chinese "problem"). When Superpowers fail folks, they tend to believe that absolute shows of strength will keep them alive, the most bloodiest events of history are the epoch defining "changing of batons", when an empire falls apart.
In the end, it is quite possibly the single most stupid and destructive war there will have been in living memory, and absolutely crippling to the US. The end of the Iran war will coincide with the end of US hegemony, even if the US "wins", the costs will have been so great, the financial damage of all that has been so enormous that it will be the most hollowest victory one could imagine. Ask yourself a simple question, are you prepared to destroy your nation to save your empire??
WAR
I usually ignore the saber-rattling. But, when this crash came everyone knew war was an option. Therefore, it can't just be ignored wholesale. Not because of this article either, just generally. Have you ever read national security memorandums from the 1950's and thought, "my God, if these were ever leaked at the time". They are about power and maintaining it. Bluntly. Period. "We have 5% of the worlds population and own 70% of the wealth. In order to maintain this...." Sounds like that.
When you're dealing from the center, the presidency/NSA, things change. You're no longer a 'member of a political party' when those meetings start. Most presidents will tell you that.
Can you imagine a more tense time than now? Can you imagine what these national security memos look like today? Oil, currency, central banks, war. Nothing would surprise me. Iran threatened to open Euro Bourse years ago. Did it happen? Not really. The week they announced, we sent aircraft carriers. Their cables snapped, delayed opening and it never really happened. Not much news after that for years. Now, they sell oil byproducts. The big goal of non US currency oil market.....gone. Poof. I think a deal was cut.
Two years later? Who knows.
Let's hope Reb Bull doesn't sponsor this little picknick. If you concentrate all that firepower and ad a few jumpy men to that, the shit will be bananas!
WARNING Debka often publishes WRONG information. Not always but often.
I'm sorry to see Zero Hedge use this source as it isnt always all that good a source.
ZeroHedge is critical and brilliant site. So you know where i'm coming from
That is 100% true. Debka is a good site, but I think it sources sometimes purposely mislead it. Still an intersting place to go... better than Fox or CNN anyday.
try haazetz...
This is The black swan event.
This President will not go to war and Russia is becoming very aware of how weak a nation we appear in allowing these nations to continue to make us look incapable of action and soon they will follow suit because they are looking to rebuild themselves into a superpower. I am in no way advocating war but this nation needs to choose it's global role and cannot have both.They can either:
1. Play world police and continue attempting to intervene in every conflict from a "peacekeeper" standpoint but that also requires that when a nation like North Korea attacks South Korea, Russia invades Georgia or there is genocide you must get involved otherwise you prove our nation not to be a detterent and the expenditure in attempted empire building further places unnecessary debt.
2. If the U.S. wishes to practice true peace withdraw from every base around the globe and concentrate those dollars domestically. The remainder of the world should be left to confront their own tensions since that is the only way they can alleviate old rivalries and make progress. Relative isolationism should be our foreign policy. If someone comes knocking on our coasts looking for a fight well that is a separate issue obviously. Short of another Hitler attempting to take an entire continent we have no place in these foreign nations. Lets bring those billions back home.
I like how US citizens love to picture themselves doing a favour on the rest of the world.
US foreign policy has grown very predictable as they are left with very little options on the table as they have turned so much dependent on the rest of the world to maintain their prosperity project.
The extortioner cant quit extorting until the extortion scheme no longer pays off by itself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=azoEuOspFDiU
Pentagon Plan to Beef Up Afghan Base Near Iran May Rile Regime
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By Tony Capaccio
May 21 (Bloomberg)
"The U.S. Navy is coordinating its ship-borne Aegis missile defense with Israel’s land-based systems, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other top U.S. military officials have encouraged Persian Gulf nations to strengthen and coordinate their individual defenses."
Connect some dots at your leisure.