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US Closes 2010 With $14,025,215,218,708 And 52 Cents In Debt, A $154 Billion Increase Overnight

Tyler Durden's picture


When we predicted a few weeks ago that the US would end 2010 with $13.8 trillion in debt we miscalculated the settlement dates on all the last round of bond auctions . As a result, we are happy to announce that as of December 31, 2010, the US now has $14,025,215,218,708 and 52 cents in debt (incidentally this is an increase of $154 billion in debt on the US balance sheet overnight). As a reminder the debt ceiling is 14,294,000,000,000. Which means at a run rate of $125 billion in net monthly issuance, the US may not even get to the end of March at the current burn rate. Which also means Congress better start the discussion on raising the debt ceiling as soon as February. Which means someone is about to [win/lose] some serious cash on the Feb 28 debt ceiling hike InTrade contracts.

h/t Bryan


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Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:52 | 845033 Flapjackmaka
Flapjackmaka's picture

WOOOHOOO. Bet stocks will celebrate! S/

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:08 | 845091 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

hey hey - let me pick up that pesky $0.52

i'm sure the rest will take care of itself...


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:18 | 845123 TruthInSunshine
Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:22 | 845130 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Food stamp recipients nearing 46 million--currently 45 1/2 million---

I smell burnt toast .......

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:13 | 845449 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture's at 42.9 million (latest data)....a 2.5 million jump would be huge maybe for December it will be that high since data is released some 3 months behind....or you have secret knowledge that the rest of us don't get....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:33 | 845547 Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

According to the number is 44.6 million.

Either way, the number is at depression levels.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:48 | 845772 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Corrected papa should be as latter post says at 44,5 million--snap info is 30-60 days old and this month saw many 99rs fall into the needier category.

As for the debt

The never ending flush continues as the turd will not go down.

National debt is running at 850k per minute or 51 million per hour

GDP is running at 260k per minute

This country is in the negative 590k every minute the doors stay open

Now flip those hotcakes they are burning.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:52 | 845309 Econolingus
Econolingus's picture

This won't be news until it is, and at that point it won't matter

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:51 | 845035 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

We're gonna need a bigger hat

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:10 | 845107 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:13 | 845112 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:54 | 845420 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...and I'm bettin' we mofos out here ain't never gonna' pay that number off ever. They got my shirt, they ain't gettin' my pajamas. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:56 | 845051 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Hey now

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:55 | 845052 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

For all Tea Party supporters out there (myself included), please keep a watchful eye on how the debt ceiling debate and voting unfolds.  There is no excuse for a Tea Party member to vote for raising the debt ceiling, if they do they are clearly Neo-cons and part of the problem. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:08 | 845093 flattrader
flattrader's picture

They will fall in line and vote to raise.

Boehner et al is already hip and working to counteract their intransigence.

They majority of them will fold like a cheap suit.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:10 | 845105 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Unfortunately I agree. Oh well, the Fed will just have to print more and I will stay the hell out of their way.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:19 | 845129 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And if they don't vote to raise the limit, the Squid tanks the market (a la the first TARP vote), blaming all of the disaster on Congress's inability to "Do something!" thanks to those vile obstructionist Tea Partiers.

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:33 | 845167 flattrader
flattrader's picture

I think you're right about the Squid.  So, watch DeMint carefully.  Bachman too.

It may be an opportunity to do a good short..but, not full on retard.

I want to see them play "brinksmen", not just "chicken".



Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:39 | 845300 KickIce
KickIce's picture

I agree.  Just watch the displeasure if the gravy train gets the axe.

It's like the old Fram oil filter ads, pay me now or pay me later.  I'm afraid the time for voluntary austerity, ie the oil change, has come and gone.  We are in need of a major overhaul.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:16 | 845713 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And if they don't vote to raise the limit, the Squid tanks the market (a la the first TARP vote), blaming all of the disaster on Congress's inability to "Do something!" thanks to those vile obstructionist Tea Partiers.


Damn straight. The Giant Rapacious Vampire Squid will hold 401(k) and pensions hostage.

It was so brilliant a move back in 2008, with Hank Paulson in on the scam, that they've put it into their official 'playbook.'

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:18 | 845121 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

The tea party started as something great, much like our American government.  It will become infiltrated, neutured and used by those looking to sell us all down the river for their cut...much like our American government.

There will be no shortage of politicians who will pander to their cause, though.

Ron Paul or bust.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:29 | 845144's picture

Aye on Ron Paul.

As for the Tea Party, the media gets it all wrong. I'll believe that Sarah Palin is a Tea Party leader when I see her scale the side of a tall ship in full Indian regalia and begin tossing the ill-gotten gains of Empire over the side.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:31 | 845161 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Ron Paul or bust indeed.  I hope he declares his candidacy soon and raise more money online in one day than any other in US history.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:40 | 845180's picture

Ron Paul ...raise more money online in one day than any other in US history.

And that was known as the Tea Party if I recall the sequence of money bombs correctly.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:38 | 845177 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Over a long enough time line, ALL institutionalized collectives are corrupted, as they provide irresistible levers of power for unscrupulous individuals who use them to game society to their own advantage.

Step 1: Observe a grass-roots movement rising in opposition to your criminal enterprise.

Step 2a: Co-opt the movement by positioning agents with common views.

Step 2b: Agents give credence to the movement, while infiltrating/creating its chain-of-command

Step 2c: Once the agent corrals the movement, they self-destruct in a burst of foot-in-mouth incoherence. People outside of the movement will associate it with the incoherence. People inside will either become incoherent themselves (blinder wearing, dyed-in-the-wool apologists), or will lose faith and drop their support of the movement.

Step 3: Profit from the destruction.

Of course, this is just another way to say divide and conquer, the oldest trick in the book. Just as Hucksterbee kept up the noise to drown out the signal of Dr. Paul last election, so shall the Palins of the next.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:44 | 845409 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

So true.  Depressingly so.

Yet, Dr. Paul is willing to do what others can't.  He is willing to uphold the constitution and only uphold the constitution.  Regardless of his own beliefs, even.  He believes in sound money and giving the states the rights they are guaranteed in the constitution.

All it takes for my vote is a true love of this country and the will to live up to the constitution.  No more and no less.

I know I am in a super-minority with this viewpoint.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:57 | 845058 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

That's only the half of it.  Not even.  It will never be paid, and we may as well own up to it now, before things get really frisky out there.



Mon, 01/03/2011 - 16:57 | 845063 BlackSea
BlackSea's picture

Bang Dae Hoe. That's all.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:00 | 845067 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Shit!!! I was keeping track and I had $14,025,215,218,708.55!! Now I gotta figure out where that f'n .03 went!!!


Tue, 01/04/2011 - 01:14 | 845888 mochoajr
mochoajr's picture

You might have to go back a few years to figure it out.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:02 | 845068 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Raise the debt ceiling Austan! Repeat after me: the deficit doesn't matter, the deficit doesn't matter, the deficit doesn't matter...

Cheney for President! Oh wait, he already was.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:02 | 845075 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

They'll raise the debt ceiling as they always do. And, as a poster, I believe cynically stated above, the deficit doesn't matter. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:05 | 845083 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

...until it does

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:08 | 845092 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, no.  Until its TOO LATE.  Which is already is.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:09 | 845102 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That's right, because historically, no nation with an out-of-control deficit has ever hit the skids.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:18 | 845126 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

apparently, some believe that an increasing deficit during a period of increasing rates is somehow positive.  and, the only way to keep rates in check is to print money, destroy the dollar...and inflate the middle class into poverty.

nevermind.  harry has a 14 person operation in Minnesota that says the economy is surging.  LMFAO!!!


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:13 | 845116 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They'll raise it for sure.

But I've heard they actually hired a Broadway producer to make it look more dramatic this time.

Rumor has it that there will even be real tears.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:16 | 845120 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Yes.  Real tears.

Boehner is gearing up to go on a crying jag.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:49 | 845205 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

He'll also mention "body armor" and "jobs".


The Foxheads will begrudgingly shake their heads in agreement, yes, it's  "for the troops" and keep on keepin on.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:23 | 845128 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

They will raise it to help American families and small businesses!

In politics it's not what you say, but how you say it.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 01:53 | 845928 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I've heard of realtears. Isn't it 10 percent real tears and 90 percent salty water?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:44 | 845164 P Rankmug
P Rankmug's picture

Just think of the debt ceiling as Mr. Creosote.

"Finally Monsieur, a wafer thin mint."


"Sir, it's only a tiny little thin one."

"Fuck off, I'm full."

"It's only wafer thin."




Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:44 | 845317 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Good thing you know everything

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:43 | 845658 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"the deficit doesn't matter." Thank you Dick Cheney. Now that's a man to emulate. You're right Harry, it just like re-entering the atmosphere, math doesn't matter.  

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:03 | 845077 cossack55
cossack55's picture

My ceilings got a hole in it and I might drown

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:07 | 845094 Bearster
Bearster's picture


I had someone call me a Know-Nothing, Klansman, John Bircher, McCarthyite "extremist" today over this issue.  It doesn't bother me (and I've been called worse).  Hopefully the incoming Tea Partiers also don't care about such names and stand firm: balance the #$*! budget (by cutting spending!)

Somehow I am not holding my breath.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:08 | 845096 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Eurozone and US figures - sources: CIA, Eurostats, AP, ECB, US Treasury, US BEA, Wiki. All in US$, year 2009:

US 14 Trillion
Eurozone 9 Trillion

Gov. Debt
US 12,9 Trillion*
Eurozone 9 Trillion

Gov Deficit
US 1,4 Trillion
Eurozone 0,7 Trillion

Current Account Deficit
US -420 Billion
Eurozone -70 Billion

*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac obligations excluded. On- or off-balance sheet obligations of those two independent GSEs was $5 trillion at the time the conservatorship was put in place


The EU might be going down the shitters, but so is the US boys.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:22 | 845131 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The official GDP of the Eurozone is actually about 9 trillion Euros, so in Dollars terms about $13 trillion at 2009 exchange rate.  I'm not sure if I believe any of the GDP numbers though - you can easily cut about $3 trillion of bullshit fudges from the US numbers, and I've never trusted what comes out of France or Italy...

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:10 | 845101 6 String
6 String's picture

This is the great paradox of today: everyone in America ignoring the real economy: printed money that will never get repaid. And the trading in the markets today will be the course for the year, a lot of stupidity with large unfathomable moves while precious metals ultimately take yet another round in the ponzi scheme.

It's still too hard to figure if stocks will go up or down as hyperinflation continues to arrive, but it doesn't really matter except to make the ignorant feel better if just for a little while longer.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:12 | 845110 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Might as well be 14 quadrillion. It won't be paid back. We may be the most corrupt nation there ever was. We are such hypocrites that we won't even acknowlege how bad we are trapped. We keep pretending we'll get out of this debt trap. There is no escape! Period. No escape! Keep the endgame (which is default or hyperinflation) in your thoughts and buy gold/silver with your extra dollars...if not for you then for your kids.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:24 | 845135 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

they could sell the kids. I've heard you can get 50 $ for a boy in the silver mines of Bolivia and 20$ in the red light districts of Rio for a girl. And the Chinese also seem to be willing to buy organs of the 18 year olds.

Better start crunching numbers.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:39 | 845304 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I'll take Girl From Rio for $20 Alex

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:14 | 845113 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Our government urinates excellence all over its citizens.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:20 | 845115 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

As if not already, this will have major implications if Ben starts to raise interest rates. (Note: Hazius on CNBS says wont happen untill 2013)

For every 100bps increase in rates, an extra $140 Billion (Incorrectly assuming stagnant debt)must be found to service this $14 Trillion of debt.

Above,in combination with the fact that the housing market would be destroyed if rates go up, means one thing - Ben will print.

Buy PM's!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:26 | 845141 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I think you're right, but there has been a fundamental "problem" with Ben switching on the presses this time.....rates have gone up WITHOUT his blessing! Oh what a predicament the Bernank finds himself in:

1) Print, and run the risk of interest rates/commodites exploding higher

2) Don't print (and thus defy the very nature from which he was spawned) and let deflation take hold, so that we may have "real" prices and "real" markets again.


I'll take Option 2 thanks Ben!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:31 | 845159 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Ben Bernanke will never raise real interest rates.  If he raises rates to 1%, it's because inflation is running 10%.  Real interest rates will be kept permanently negative because that is how banks make money.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:19 | 845453 youngman
youngman's picture

You are right..they will soon be making a 7-10% spread....highway all the fees they charge.....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:19 | 845124 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

If they raise the deficit, the new debt will be added to the pile, which already is unpayable as it is. The can is kicked down the road, interest payments increase, and everyone keeps taking their Xanax, pretending the debt crisis has been solved, once and for all.

If it isn't raised, either spending is curtailed, which would lead to almost instantaneous internal economic collapse, or the US outright defaults, which leads to instantaneous global collapse.

What a fucking great situation we're in.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:28 | 845148 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Didn't the voters confirm that their Great Great Grand children will be good for it?



Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:24 | 845136 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

"...And 52 Cents In Debt"


LOL!!! Laugh of the day.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:30 | 845388 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

I told them I would give them my "two cents" for free, but they counted it anyway.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:25 | 845138 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

You know, it's my understanding that the US is the only country that can "legally" print money since it's the reserve currency. And we are, to say the least. Europe is by definition, not printing, and they are experiencing austerity (except for the banks). I have this suspicion that the US will not visit austerity for a long time, if ever. There is no one with the balls to call us on this printing. If there was, they would have done it already. The whole deficit thing makes little difference right now. The US will print. The world will borrow and the game will go on, until something happens that cause it to stop. What that is, no clue. But debt and deficits in the medium term are not it and meaningless. If you don't believe it, look back the last two, three, 10 years. When have they mattered?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:26 | 845142 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'll cover the .52 cents if Bernanke is publicly flogged and removed from his position (I'll pick up a lot more of the tab if Bernanke is water-boarded and forced to disclose who he works for and all the glorious and specific details of the plan/mechanism).

I'll throw in some extra scratch to see Bernanke's beard removed, ala sticky tape method.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:29 | 845157 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'd pay the next six digits to see him hung, drawn, and quartered, with a bit sent to all of the major central banks of the world, and his head put on a pike on the Brooklyn Bridge.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:29 | 845152 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

But remember, $14,000,000,000 dollars is only 234 Swiss Francs.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:54 | 845210 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...or the combined listing price of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Iceland, Slovenia, and England.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:29 | 845154 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

So this is what happens...

Manufactured stock market crash so money flees to Treasury bonds, lowering rates,  and taking some of that buying pressure off the printing press.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:35 | 845169 Hansel
Hansel's picture

That may be the plan, but will it work?  The money could just as easily rush into gold, silver, oil, and the rest of commodities.  I think the PTB's plan was to get through christmas and the new year, and now they have no plan.  They are flying blind.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:42 | 845184 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm not sure how it would work but I won't put anything beyond the machinations of sycophantic psychopaths suffering from megalomania.

Rolls off the tongue.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:47 | 845195 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Of course it will work. Pumpmaster Hal will see to that.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:30 | 845156 ants88
ants88's picture

Everyone we know are buying dec 2011 Bernacke Puts. Beyond 100 Trillion US Debt, we are in the money!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:29 | 845158 Misean
Misean's picture

Disembodied Brain 1: $14,025,215,218,708 And 52 Cents?!?!

Disembodied Brain 2: And they have a problem with Quatloos?

Disembodied Brain 3: Any of you want to bet one Quatloo they don't default?

All:  Bwahahahahahahahahahhaahhahhahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaahha!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:53 | 845209's picture

Kirk: Now, Shana, let me tell you about this Earth emotion called "love."

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:34 | 845166 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Looks like some Federal employees went apeshit with their government credit cards for New Years.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:43 | 845188 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Won't eliminating Social Security and Medicare save gobs of money?

Old people need to fend for themselves.

Man up!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:57 | 845213 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

If I remember correctly, our Teleprompter-in-Chief said the savings from physicians implementing electronic health records will about make this whole national debt thing a wash.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:12 | 845252 Kina
Kina's picture

Tough call though.

Step one, globalise and export all manufacturing jobs overseas.

Create easy 'money' low rates and housing boom.

Short said housing boom and crash economy.

Put 46 million on food stamps.

Millions of jobs now missing from the economy, permanently (look in China and India).

Blame subsequent unemployed for being unemployed.


Vote Democrat or GOP it would have made no difference, either one is voting for the Banksters.







Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:42 | 845559 nate28jf
nate28jf's picture

your ideas are intriguing to me and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:42 | 845191 toros
toros's picture

The interest payment works out to be about $25000/tax payer/yr.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:43 | 845315 edwardscpa
edwardscpa's picture

raise your hand if that's more than you pay per year in income tax.  be honest.. lol.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:46 | 845194 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

The Fed will simply inflate the money supply untill that 14 trillion = 1 loaf of bread.

That's the only possible course of action.

Deflation won't be allowed to happen. It would bankrupt the entire financial sector. No, it won't be allowed to happen.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:48 | 845201 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Of course, there's always Plan B; reduce the categories of gov borrowing that are covered by the statutory limit.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:50 | 845204 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

We are America! History and the laws of Finance and Economics do not apply to us!

Sarcasm off.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:51 | 845206 smeagol
smeagol's picture

Anyone saving up to help pay that off?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:03 | 845231 Zoran
Zoran's picture

Don't the powers thatbe realize this debt can NEVER be paid back??? The USA will default on its debt, sure as night follows day!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:05 | 845236 Kina
Kina's picture

How can deficits not matter? If not why have a debt ceiling? Let them raise it to $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

then since it is of no consequence. Confetti can be the new currency.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:19 | 845268 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Now that Tea Party candidates are actually in, that makes all the difference. Now they worry about staying in. Surrounded by a constant barrage of lobbyists, PACs and special interest groups, they'll begin to reconsider some of their bolder views. One by one, bit by bit. American voters will start backing away from austerity soon enough once they figure out it means less Netflix. You can be sure some just talked the talk to get elected, and that's where it ends. 

The debt ceiling debate: will start off with a bang and end with a whimper as compromise will be reached. Just like the tax cut debate as each side gets their little blowjob

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:29 | 845290 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

You will wake up one morning to see all bank accounts fractionally lower, first we had fractional reserves, and now we have fractional collateral. Bury your money in the backyard bitchez..

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:38 | 845298 cjhowe
cjhowe's picture

This is not a miscalculation of bonds...this is a transfer "payment" to Social Security for the interest on those illiquid pieces of paper with I.O.U. written on them.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:27 | 845381 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Watch the video “Economy Stage 4 Cancer Patient ~ Stocks Rigged” at (

Anonymous –

It’s unbelievable that it has gotten to the stage where we actually know without a shadow of a doubt that the U.S. economy is RIGGED! I can’t wait for the PONZI scheme to continue!!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:05 | 845392 hambone
hambone's picture

2000 Fed Debt $5.5T - average interest paid on all debt outstanding...6.64% = $350B*

2010 Fed Debt $14T - average interest paid on all debt outstanding...3.01% = $414B*

2011 est. Fed Debt $15.5T @ 2000 6.64% interest rate = $1.03T...hmmmm, better keep those rates real low.  Why with stock market nearing '00 levels would yields be less than half of '00 yields w/ debt tripled from 2000???

*only half the interest is actually paid as half is owed to intragov debt and is simply added to the debt (I think) all SS surplus is forced to buy T's and along w/ BB offer a bid to hold T yields down.  This SS surplus will be a large deficit in '11 and '12 w/ the decreased SS taxes. Plus SS receipts are still well down (I believe).

This would seem to put BB and the Fed in even greater need to increase their QE activities???  Not sure why Hatzius would overlook something so basic because if the SS actually runs a deficit and isn't buying and the Fed doesn't buy and the Chinese continue cutting back significantly/ shortened maturity...the outcome would seem an epic yield increase...unless issuance was cut really dramatically (which seems really unlikely) or folks were scared enuf to go back to safety of T's (seems unlikely w/ stock market soaring under Jan's premise)???  That dude is making no sense...none.

BTW - Debt ceiling breach can be put off by months with some accounting gimmickry.  So don't get too excited if we start getting close and the two sides aren't close.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:22 | 845459 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh sure. Take the interest rate bullshit part of the equation out AFTER the debt is piled into a mountain. Isn't that generous of ya. LOL

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:18 | 845476 hambone
hambone's picture

Eh?  I don't seem to remember advocating or voting for more deficit spending.  My point is that short of a coup or sanity, QE3 and maybe 4 or 5 are a coming.  Either we die slow(er) from overspending, monetization, and inflation or we die quickly from interest rate shock. 

BTW - pretty sure whether in '11, '12, or by '15 at latest debt payment will exceed what Ferguson called out as the deathknell or every empire, military spending.  I think his point is that once you are perceived as vulnerable is when you are really in trouble and will be challenged.  Had we cut spending voluntarily it likely wouldn't have been bad (actually very good) but once it is forced upon us...that is blood in the water.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:22 | 845952 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You're not understanding how it works. The interest is bullshit. If you simply look at the money creation process you see that it's bullshit. It's all underpinned by gold. And it's all one big pool of gang violence central bankers.

If I have a gold pool and I loan you 10 ounces and you have to pay me back 11 ounces with interest. You have to go outside the gold pool to get that 11th ounce becasue it doesn't exist anywhere else. The money changers actually killed rome this way as well. They had the same sort of system where they started controlling publishing and books became drab horrible meaningless bullshit in a world of extremely smart people. Then they started charging interest. Since rome ran the whole world there was no OUTSIDE source of gold to pay the interest. So people actually began cutting down coins. You can find late roman coins that were big fat coins with a lot of material outside of the rulers face all cut down to show just his face. The outside source of gold was the mines in italy. They were literally yanking tons of the stuff out of the italian mountainside. Once the mines ran dry the money changers cashed in their receipts and left a bunch of bagholders.

Which is why the banks control all the miners today one way or another.

And yes you are right about the vulnerability. Amercians who want to attack thier own government will wait for a foreign government to attack. Foreign governments will wait for internal strife before being embolded. Right now it's catch 22. Everbody is sitting and patiently waiting for impetus actions to begin. Sooner or later someone somwhere is going to twitch. And the slow boiler turns into an erupting volcano. Which is why america want's all these external dangers dead or under control. Because empires break with that internal external forces impinging together. Which is why facism always spikes during war. Just research montana sedition during world war 1. People were fully fooled during world war 2. Right now we are at the stage where english forces are invading war protesters homes. America and europe will clamp it's citizens hard this year. 

Lies and bullshit aren't working. So they'll fall back to old fashioned facism and it'll go from 40 cops arresting or abusing people without any retribution to 40 cops arresting or abusing people with people taking pot shots at them from windows. To people running out in the street and destroying big chunks of police forces. Cops will entrench to their police stations and national guards will roll out. Then it will get ugly. I'm talking scare the fucking crap out of steven speilberg ugly.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:31 | 845393 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Yes, they will raise the debt ceiling after Obama and the democrats blink on cutting SS and Medicare and curtailing the Obama Health plan.  This was all a plan from the start if they got back into power.  They want Obama to undo everything and blame it on him.  They also want to chance law to make it easier for whole states to file bankruptcy in order to re-negotiate with the public unions.  This way the states can reduce benefits and such and then destroy them and make it hard for them to support the democrats.  The republicans are wanting to mess things up so much that when it comes time for the next election for the presidency and both houses, people will want to get rid of any democrat.


I do believe though that the republicans are crossing one bridge to far.  They may get that victory, but it will be a Pyrrhic one and it could take down everybody.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:20 | 845522 Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

Obama comes out and says we have a choice of the two wars and we have to now decrease the Military budget in half or every old person who votes in droves gets no social security and stops sending payments for a month.


GOP fold harder and faster than a house of cards as old white racist beg the President for their money back.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:56 | 845423 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

I want those 52 cents back...!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:23 | 845726 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So that's how Bernanke is doing it!

Superman III scam.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:11 | 845507 David99
David99's picture

Yaah, treasury transferred $ 154 billion in my account, made me much richer

Lucky me

(Richest person on earth)

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:21 | 845510 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Wow, Thats alot of money. Too bad i dont make alot. I hope i dont have resort to selling my nude Ernest Borgnine photos if they raise my taxes. Anything but that.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:19 | 845515 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I heard an inteview with Rand Paul today in which he said that there really IS an alternative to raising the debt ceiling. He said the government could spend ONLY what it takes in instead of borrowing 50 cents of every dollar we spend. Now wouldn't that be a change for once!

Personally, I would LOVE to see a debt showdown between the permaspending progressives and the new fiscal hawks that have just been elected. This would force Americans to wake up and recognize that most government is not "essential government", and that borrowing half the budget must end -- either by choice or by the force of the laws of economics. In fact, I expect it of them if they are to keep their campaign promises and protecd the Constitution! We are going to hold their feet to the fire.

This debt figure appears to put us on a fast track toward that debt impasse sooner rather than later. I can't wait!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:53 | 845572 nate28jf
nate28jf's picture

in a democratic government it is political suicide to make cuts that are going to negatively affect the voters.  If you cut the spending, that money is going to negatively affect someone.  This is why we need term limits.  Nobody can make the tough choices...and the politicians have to cave to lobbyists to keep the money coming in to their re-election campaigns.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:03 | 845585 Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

Well if it isn't raised that is where the real debate and fun begins.

I can guarantee you with the choice between blowing up muslims and eating the over 65 crowd that votes in quite large numbers are going to chose to eat.  

Frankly, if liberals really want to end the war, they would be smart to jump onboard with this.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:01 | 845583 Quantitative Bu...
Quantitative Buttrape's picture

WOW, 154 billion overnight!! The bulge in my trousers went up that fast once---- But that was a long long time ago.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:32 | 845638 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

The 14T to date does not include the 1.7T needed for the 10/11 federal budget, so its really at 15.725T once they get around to finalizing, or just deem and pass the blank paper.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:42 | 845656 Nutsac
Nutsac's picture

Pop the confetti everybody!? The good ol' USA just achieve the unachievable!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:51 | 845670 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Schiff with an r-tard chick on FBN talking about the debt ceiling:

This is an official announcement from our government, that we're running a Ponzi scheme... Think about what he is saying: "If we can't borrow more money... if we can't go deeper into debt, then we are going to default. We are not going to pay back the money that we have already borrowed." That is exactly what Bernie Madoff did.

Love it.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:24 | 845731 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

I've got four more years till my Roth basis can be pulled out. The way this is going I don't think by 1/1/2015 these dollar-denominated "investments" are going to be worth the paper they are printed on. Did I just get scammed into paying the taxes in 2012/2013 while the dollar is still worth a darn only to be hosed when I yank it out? If only you could move a Roth into PM's now! BB = SOB

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:32 | 845745 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm really starting to think The Bernank is living on borrowed time, metaphorically speaking.


He has big problems.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 04:37 | 846030 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture


Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:21 | 845820 alexwest
alexwest's picture

## run rate of $125 billion in net monthly issuance

actaully, its abit more, 140b per motnh,, so its even worse,,

i guess we gonna have at least 1000s for sp500 in the spring...


Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:58 | 845866 mochoajr
mochoajr's picture

What's $14,025,215,218,708.52 divided by 308,745,538? My abacus is broken.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 03:32 | 845990 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just shake it. That's what I always do when my abacus goes all bluescreen like :)

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 04:46 | 846028 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

My calculator was over stressed. This was the total... 1.7088777+eeeeeeeeeeeeee+6549

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 05:00 | 846034 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

I make it $45,389 ea.

So, somewehere just above $92,000 per taxpayer.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 04:31 | 846025 tom
tom's picture

Actually, of that $154b year-end surge in debt, "only" the $63 billion that falls in the "debt held by the public" column went through the auction process. 

The main thing that happened here was simply a regular payment of interest on intragovernmental debt. Treasury generally pays most interest on intragovernmental debt semi-annually and does so by issuing more intragovernmental debt. Hence that $91b surge in intragovernmental debt on Dec 31.

I still say intragovernmental debt is meaningless, and what really matters are the unfunded obligations of off-budget programs, the biggest being Medicare. But Congress has given intragovernmental debt a sort of technical importance by counting it towards the debt ceiling.

On a related note, remember that the administration has a $200b "debt ceiling buffer" stuffed in Treasury's supplementary account at the Fed.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 08:10 | 846085 Incubus
Incubus's picture

spider sense is tingling, what's that?




Count on "Osama bin laden" to make an appearance once the sea of pitchforks start to form, and if not Osama "Tim Osman" Bin Laden, one of his dirty henchmen will miraculously 'strike' and spring The "War on Terror" into the forefront of the collective consciousness.

I'm betting maybe the "penis bomber," or something like that this time around. 


At any rate, there won't be a happy ending for any of this.  There won't be some great revolution in our lifetime.  Just get used to the "increases in the chocolate rations" and learn to deal with it.  Maybe there'll be some 'great revolution' a few generations down the road, or maybe in a few hundred years--just don't fool yourself, or hold any amount of hope in these docile sheep-masses to do anything. 


Under the spreading chestnut tree
I sold you and you sold me
There lie they, and here lie we
Under the spreading chestnut tree


People are the worst.

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