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US Consumers At Crossroads As Spread Between Visions Of Present And Future At Record Divergence

Tyler Durden's picture




Yesterday's most recent data from the Conference Board's Confidence Index recapitulates very well the Economic Inquisition purgatory that living in America has become: pain and suffering now, coupled with the promise of salvation and financial bliss at some point in the future. Of course, on a long enough timeline we are all dead, so it is only fitting that the administration, whose slogan had something to do with tangible change, is gradually encroaching on the Catholic Church's turf in an all out war for the souls of America's taxpayers as tangible becomes increasingly ephemeral and, well, intangible (save for unemployment and the wads of electronic cash deposited in Goldman Sachs' employees bank accounts - both of those are all too real). While the CBCC number came in at about the expected reading of 52.9 (from 50.6 in November), all of the "improvement" in confidence came from rosy future expectations, which rose to a two year high of 75.6 (from 70.3 previously). As for the present: current conditions plunged to another record low of 18.8. Never before has the differential between present pain and future hope been so wide.

The impact of this divergence politically is all too obvious. The voting population, which has been extremely patient, and keeps hoping that the future will finally bring something better and in line with oh so many promises, may very soon change their mood and realize that the present is here to stay, regardless of what the Fed manipulated capital markets demonstrate. When that happens watch for some interesting election fireworks on this side of the Potomac river.

Reading between the lines of the CBCC indicates that Obama and CNBC's grand plan to get consumers to spend, spend, spend again has fizzled. Autobuying intentions dropped to 3.8 from 4.5 in November, the lowest read in over a year, when the SAAR was 10.5 million. The double dip in the auto sales will soon be upon us. Furthermore, buying intentions of major household appliances held at a weak 23.7: Cash for Bidets can't come fast enough. Most troubling, however, homebuying intentions have plunged to a near-thirty year low: at 1.9, the percentage of Americans planning on buying a house is the lowest since 1982.

And just in case you thought that shellshocked US citizens will look to get the hell out of Dodge, at least temporarily, to take advantage of that strong, strong dollar and travel abroad, think again. The percentage of Americans planning a vacation in the next six months fell to 35.7, the lowest since April. The David Rosenberg-penned "frugal consumer" is here to stay, which can only mean that both the Fed and the US Government will become buyers of first, last and everything inbetween resort, as the traditional component of US GDP (sorry David Bianco, you are unabashedly wrong in your "consumer is irrelevant" propaganda). Maybe it is time to dust off all those Russian Politics 101 manuals, in our search of how to defeat Soviet Style Communist fiscal and monetary policy, which have so thoroughly penetrated the United States of America itself.




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Wed, 12/30/2009 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 09:35 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Thanks for the in depth on this report TD.  I read the internals yesterday via b'berg and, once again, the headlines certainly don't tell the story. I'm glad that you got this info out to the readership.

Expecting a further financial sector "overweight" reiteration from David Bianco's team in 5...4...3...

oh, what the hell, how about a David Bianco upgrade of the SPX to 1400 in 2010?

 

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

The out of hours (reported yesterday after US close) consumer confidence figures were not so confident either....

USD ABC Consumer Confidence (DEC 27) fell to -44 from -42

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 09:40 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Thanks Racer.....the MSM doesn't report the ABC numbers.

Actually, ZH typically reports ABC numbers and it would make sense that they would have been incorporated in this article.  Get off your ass Tyler, you're slacking off again.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Daedal
Daedal's picture

The percentage of Americans planning a vacation in the next six months fell to 35.7, the lowest since April.

Meanwhile, Priceline making all-time highs and car rental companies going through the roof.

Can someone please riddle me how DTG will be paying off its $400 million debt payment in June? More equity issues, perhaps? I like how their execs get paid in 100% Cash compensation. What about the $600 mil due in 2011 and $500 mil due in 2012? Hello?! Who is buying this at $27/share?!? I'm amazed.

I am reminded of a time when I thought Crox was overvalued at $50, and it went up an additional 50% before crashing to $2.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

Hopee-one-canobe says use the force luke.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:10 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

1.9% plan to buy a new home.....lowest since 1982.....  What were mortgage rates in 1982?  What are they now????  Yeah...exactly...  We are so fucked!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:39 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

When there's despair there's good opportunity. I know someone who just got a *fixed* 5.0% 30 year mortgage with an option to make early payments, no penalty. That's a great deal: if inflation kicks in the house will cost peanuts, if not the guy plans to pay in full in 15 years. Having a save, reasonably high salary helps...

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Daedal
Daedal's picture

Yes, but salaries have a funny property to them. They tend to be "sticky" and are often adjusted after cost of living goes up. It is a relatively good rate, but we can get inflated oil prices as well as increase in the price of many imports without without any adjusted increases in salaries. In fact, we may get increased unemployment if costs of business go up. Theoretically speaking, inflation is good for the borrower of a fixed rate and bad for the lender, but in practice we may indeed have inflation and your friend might not necessarily reap the benefits.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Keep It Simple ...
Keep It Simple Stupid's picture

Exactly! Interest rates were 18-20% back in '82, now they are 5% or less and still no one (other than hedge funds) wants to borrow. It's totally understandable that no one wanted to borrow at 20% for 30 years but why don't people want to borrow at 5%? Simple, the general public is either stuffed to the gills with debt already or afraid to take on new debt because they aren't confident enough in their future economic prospects to believe they can repay it.  It doesn't matter how "cheap" new debt is, it's still more debt and most people don't want it.

This is exactly why I don't buy the argument that the fed can just print money and inflate assets to infinity. They can print all the money they want but someone still has to be willing to borrow it. People seem to always forget about that side of the equation. The fed is powerless if no one wants their fiat money.

It's not just housing where this is an issue either. My wife and I own a business. At the end of 2008 we made the decision to become 100% debt free in 2009. I can happily report that I wrote the final checks last night and we now own everything (cars, equipment, residence, etc.) and have zero debt. My personal feeling is that 2010 & 2011 are going to be the ugliest years US businesses have ever seen and the best way to prepare for that scenario was to become debt free.

My point is that I know I'm not alone in my views. I have a lot of friends that also own businesses and they're doing the same thing to various degrees. It doesn't matter what you offer me at this point, if it involves me taking on debt, I'm not interested. If my view becomes the majority view, which I feel it will if it hasn't already, then the logical path in the future for all asset prices is down not up.

So where does it end? How far we have to fall before we hit bottom is the big question. The even bigger question is what will the US look like once deflation has run it's course. We all know that what our government is doing is lunacy. Any "recovery" when we do hit bottom is going to be crushed by the weight of the federal debt we (ironically) accumulated creating the very bubble that we are now adding even more debt to in order to try and reproduce it. (Blank checkbook for Fannie & Freddie, yeah, that's going to end well...) What will happen when deflation ends? Hyper-inflation? US default? Revolution? Who knows?

While I haven't gone so far as to dig a bunker in the backyard and load up on guns and food it's starting to look more and more like a "rational" idea every day.

Oh yeah, happy new year!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

You are absolutely correct about the New Normal being anchored with debt avoidance.

Every one of my acquaintances who have gone under in the past year were overly leveraged. The stiff wind of credit contraction blew them right off the fence. 

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 14:06 | Link to Comment geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Fantastic summary! It's a shame that we are the 1% of the population that have knowledge of this. In Canada, people are even more oblivious here about real estate. People (especially realtors) think that real estate will just keep going up for ever. I think people are in for some big surprises. Just a matter of when.....which has been the frustrating issue for a lot of readers on zerohedge.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 00:24 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

2010 looks like it is going to be a rough year.  I'm going to need a lot to drink...

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:31 | Link to Comment crosey
crosey's picture

The current administration can score a victory if we (the people) are allowed to print our own money too.

Reality....their strategy is on a crash-and-burn glide slope, and none of the pilots have the will to make the hard decisions that will save the plane.

Bright spot?.....mainstreet is finally willing to see the bullshit they've been blissfully ignoring for years.  Will this lead to the "right" change that needs to happen?  Or just more sensational bandaids?

I hold out hope that there is a solid leader steadily moving from the wings to center stage.  If I'm wrong, then we're in for decades of malaise.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This headline "improvement" is a wonderful example of Cognitive Dissonance combined with wishful thinking brought on by external repetitive conditioning.

After nine to twelve months of media saturation showing leaders and talking heads exclaiming good times are just around the corner, a concept carefully supported by an engineered stock market climb, people are being conditioned to believe things will get better at some point. After all, the stock market is up, right? Perception is reality.

However, they are face to face with the Cognitive Dissonance of higher food and other essential product prices, massive un/underemployment, real or imagined fears of losing their own job, their house is now worth less than they owe, bills up the yin yang, 0.1% received on their savings account, etc etc etc. 

Since the average Joe has ceded nearly all control of his or her life decades ago (most stimuli is now artificially induced, mostly through the TV) they once again will suspend disbelief and go with the flow.

When I ask people why they feel things are getting better, I get blank stares and open mouths. Careful (and gentle) questioning reveals that this so called independently arrived at conclusion was actually externally planted through repetitive TV conditioning. "I don't know, it just will" is a common answer, usually spit out in frustration because they genuinely don't know why they think this way.

The masters of the universe are brilliant in their use of psychological controls to manage and move the herd.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Daedal
Daedal's picture

wishful thinking brought on by external repetitive conditioning...Perception is reality...conclusion was actually externally planted through repetitive TV conditioning...masters of the universe are brilliant in their use of psychological controls to manage and move the herd.

The appearance of control is the biggest source of propaganda that drives the cogs of the insane contraption. I ask you, would people believe the same drivel if the politicians and experts wore jeans and sweat pants instead of suits? Would the weight of their conclusions have the perceived substance if those people did not discuss issues while sitting in leather chairs behind polished red wood tables?

And in the end, the only content conveyed to the people are blanket statements. My perennial favorite is, "We must do the right thing." Brilliant! Why didn't I think of that?!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:31 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

CD....magnificently stated. standing applause!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Danz Gambit
Danz Gambit's picture

Even Bernays would be astonished by the fruits of his labor.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:05 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

"Improvement" is less confusing than the tiresome "better than expected."  The propaganda must be simple:  You can't say "Dial nine-eleven for emergency" because there's no eleven on the phone.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Agree. Also, many if not most reports of these "improvements" are always reported in percentages, never in raw numbers.  Up 10% sounds great, until you find out the what used to be 10, is now 1, and that's up 10%, to a fantastic 1.1.  Never, ever, ever do you hear comparisons of the raw numbers.  Must be a chapter in "Controlling The Herd Through Propaganda For Dummies."

I called the guys at the Philadelphia Fed to offer to be a data source for housing, and inquired how they generate their "manufacturing index" and such. The answer seemed to be that this is done by collecting unverified opinions by telephone.  Just saying, these "indexes" are not necessarily data, unless you mean data of "opinions held." Otherwise, they mean nothing.  Show me sales tax receipts and employment tax records year over year, in gross numbers, and categorized by as many criteria as you can.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Miyagi_san
Miyagi_san's picture

I didn't make 2009 returns so I cut my insurance bills in half for 2010... BTW In an act of war (civil or otherwise) declared or not, Your HO insurance is null and void and liability has pages of exclusions. MORE koolaid please

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Not just war but riot, insurrection, nuclear bombs, military or civilian coups and so on. So called "acts of God" include acts by man.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

What's a small difference in scale between friends?

For what nuclear bombs are, you might as well consider anything within a 30-60 mile radius a write-off.

 

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:04 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

This will sound stupid after 0.01 seconds but wouldn't it be kool if you could collect on HO insurance because of foreclosure! We're going to Bermuda with our Winnebago! I wonder if in-habitability because of nuclear fallout counts?

I read that a lot of bankster contracts were technically null and void once the level 6 pandemic was declared, force majeure clause. Trump tried 'recession' as an act of God:

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/05/trump-sees-act-of-god-in-re...


Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:39 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

I wonder if in-habitability because of nuclear fallout counts?

I'd like to see that argued out in court just for the Wind/Water damage type of battle.  Would it be the nuclear fallout that made it inhabitable, or did a non-covered event precede that such as war cause the damage?

If you thought the insurance court battles from Katrina were interesting, this one would have me bringing out the popcorn.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 14:17 | Link to Comment geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I wouldn't worry about ground detonations. It is the high altitude detonations that are the more worrisome. A 400km atmospheric detonation would kill every integrated circuit in North America and throw us all back to the pre-industrial era. 

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:10 | Link to Comment fiasco
fiasco's picture

the goebbels children escaped to the US and today every major US media outlet contains descendents of the children

it's a goebbels empire if i can say a pun

this story is big and i intend to keep on top of it

but i would like to propose, like an idiot, the conclusion before the facts

that goebbels propaganda techniques are in full force today in america

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 17:33 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Fiasco is like an Italian e. e. cummings that makes a lot of interesting points - and he doesn't even speak Italian, haha! Ma va bene amico. Capisco le cose che dice. Questi sono maggiormente la verita.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/02/2010 - 03:24 | Link to Comment steveo
steveo's picture

But the party is over, and the piper needs to be paid. 

 

this is a multi hundred year event we are in, it is not ordinary.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Psquared
Psquared's picture

I don't find this kind of information very helpful. The underlying question is not whether people believe things are getting better but whether they really are getting better.

If a true scientific poll were taken I wonder what percentage of people would say their personal situation is better today than 12 months ago?

Here is how I would ask it:

Are you currently employed?

Were you employed 12 months ago?

Were you employed 24 months ago?

Is your income lower, higher or the same as 12 months ago? 24 months ago?

Are you more or less confident of the next 12 months than you were 12 months ago? 24 months ago?

You could also break it out by confidence in the economy and government.

My answers: Yes. Yes. Lower. Lower. Less. Less.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:55 | Link to Comment impending doom
impending doom's picture

Don't foget our frenemy inflation. I actually get paid a good bit more than I did 24 months ago, but somehow have less cash at the end of the day. Funny how that works out.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/01/2010 - 21:59 | Link to Comment impending doom
impending doom's picture

Sure... Would you like my name and address as well, spook?

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Argos
Argos's picture

Come on, really, who can believe a poll?  Most Americans don't know it takes a year for the Earth to revolve around the sun.  Most Americans believe in Heaven, but NOT Hell.  I could go on, but my blood pressure is going up!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 01/01/2010 - 22:01 | Link to Comment impending doom
impending doom's picture

No shit. Every time I get a message from him I reply: I'll donate as soon as you do, you rich fuck. Ding, Ding, Ding!!! THE MONEY IS THE PROBLEM!!!!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:52 | Link to Comment ggnore
ggnore's picture

Rationality is beginning to take over again, to a degree. People will naturally become thrifty and begin saving money when times get tough. Of course, the government is working tirelessly to undermine that behavior. They look at spending and think "Hmm, in a growing economy, spending should go up. Spending is going down, and savings are going up. Therefore, we should do whatever necessary to make spending go back up." They treat the symptom rather than the disease.

The unfortunate thing about this is that those who are acting responsibly and prudently will be punished by these government policies just as harshly as those that recklessly accumulated massive amounts of debt.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Brian Griffin
Brian Griffin's picture

As for the present: current conditions plunged to another record low of 18.8. Never before has the differential between present pain and future hope been so wide.

Obviously you have never met my ex-wife...

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Hands down the best laugh-out-loud comment this week. And probably this month.

Bravo!

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Miyagi_san
Miyagi_san's picture

Hell hath no fury like an x-wife's lawyer

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:00 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

Bankers Get $4 Trillion Gift From Barney Frank

H.R. 4173, the financial-reform legislation passed earlier this month by the House of Representatives

-- For all its heft, the bill doesn’t once mention the words “too-big-to-fail,” the main issue confronting the financial system. Admitting you have a problem, as any 12- stepper knows, is the crucial first step toward recovery.

-- Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule.

-- Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well.

More Bailouts

-- The bill also allows the government, in a crisis, to back financial firms’ debts. Bondholders can sleep easy -- there are more bailouts to come.

-- The legislation does create a council of regulators to spot risks to the financial system and big financial firms. Unfortunately this group is made up of folks who missed the problems that led to the current crisis.

-- Don’t worry, this time regulators will have better tools. Six months after being created, the council will report to Congress on “whether setting up an electronic database” would be a help. Maybe they’ll even get to use that Internet thingy.

-- This group, among its many powers, can restrict the ability of a financial firm to trade for its own account. Perhaps this section should be entitled, “Yes, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., we’re looking at you.”

Managing Bonuses

-- The bill also allows regulators to “prohibit any incentive-based payment arrangement.” In other words, banker bonuses are still in play. Maybe Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. shouldn’t have rushed to pay back Troubled Asset Relief Program funds.

-- The bill kills the Office of Thrift Supervision, a toothless watchdog. Well, kill may be too strong a word. That agency and its employees will be folded into the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Further proof that government never really disappears.

-- Since Congress isn’t cutting jobs, why not add a few more. The bill calls for more than a dozen agencies to create a position called “Director of Minority and Women Inclusion.” People in these new posts will be presidential appointees. I thought too-big-to-fail banks were the pressing issue. Turns out it’s diversity, and patronage.

-- Not that the House is entirely sure of what the issues are, at least judging by the two dozen or so studies the bill authorizes. About a quarter of them relate to credit-rating companies, an area in which the legislation falls short of meaningful change. Sadly, these studies don’t tackle tough questions like whether we should just do away with ratings altogether. Here’s a tip: Do the studies, then write the legislation.

 

Full PDF of H.R. 4173

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a48c8UpUMxKQ

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:08 | Link to Comment slovester
slovester's picture

The floggings will continue until morale improves

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

God forbid the congress critters would agree to any of these laws during the 2010 election season. By the summer of 2010, either this will all be forgotten or they'll be thanking God they were "proactive" back in Dec of 2009 when they authorized this open ended theft by edict. Best to sign those blank checks when most people are distracted and occupied.

The oldest tricks in the books are still the best tricks.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Wang

Thread high-jacking!  Anyway, loved this:


 

-- Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Yea glad they put that in. Now we are safe.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Clampit
Clampit's picture

Didn't Oblama promise hope for America?

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 16:07 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Didn't Oblama promise hope for America?

And maybe "spread between visions of present and future" is exactly what it is, the worse things get, the more hope you need to bridge the gap between unpleasant reality and desirable future. Interestingly enough, but in Greek mythology hope was considered as rather dangerous thing, for example when Pandora opened Pandora's box:

According to the myth, Pandora opened a jar (pithos), in modern accounts referred to as "Pandora's box", releasing all the evils of mankind— although the particular evils, aside from plagues and diseases, are not specified in detail by Hesiod — leaving only Hope inside once she had closed it again.[4] She opened the jar out of simple curiosity and not as a malicious act.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Implosion Therapy
Implosion Therapy's picture

Im a paramedic and live on a single income with a family of three. My girlfriend and our 5 month old.I gotta say that it really feels like we are being pushed out of the middle class..slowly.You just cant make it on one income anymore.We are not spenders either..we live pretty simply but its not enough to live simply because the basics are getting harder to get month by month. I make what I believe to be the national avg a year...I feel for those making less...and I believe people all over have to be feeling the squeeze..There is the feeling of impending doom and I think more people than we might think know that they are teetering on the brink of poverty...its just going to take a nudge in the right direction

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Check out this vid and the website described therein.  Hey, you might as well get while the gettings good. 

 

Slither up inside Uncle Sugar's large intestine and clamp on!!!

 

We must starve the beast.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lveqjUaLDwI

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

 

 

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:37 | Link to Comment perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

 "Never before has the differential between present pain and future hope been so wide."

 

Well, as we get nearer the '10 midterm elections, hope will continue to spring more abundantly.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:40 | Link to Comment berlinjames02
berlinjames02's picture

Here's a good joke that I'm tailoring to the current situation: The last bastion of communism is the American [University / Government]

Lenin would be proud.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

an awesome note.  thank you Tyler, sir ! 

just awesome work / analysis.

and dust off those old copies of Kindleberger / recent printouts from Armstrong.

can't underscore either enough.  thanks again, TD.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:51 | Link to Comment jedwards
jedwards's picture

Where's the commentary on the Chicago PMI at 60?  Reporting one side of the story and not mentioning the others that don't confirm bias is not valuable.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Hansel
Hansel's picture

The non-seasonally adjusted number fell to 52.8. Seasonal "adjustments" boosted it to 60.0. Inventories were up sans seasonal adjustment, but down including it. Supplier deliveries were down, but with seasonal adjustment, improved. You're welcome.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Any "indicator" purporting to measure where we are in the American economic cycle by reporting a statistic on "consumer confidence" is Orwellian horse manure.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

Chicago PMI - where is our President from?  If I wanted to make the Chicago PMI look good so lazy economists would extrapolate the good results to the rest of the country, what would I do?  Rising PMI while manufacturing jobs continue to decline - hello!!!  Is anyone watching?

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

Obviously ZH doesn't subscribe to 'The Secret'.  You know that nonsense that was on the best seller lists a couple of years ago about asking, believing, receiving.  C'mon everyone, get with the program.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

When a currency no longer retains any correlation to a fixed point or quantifiable and measurable basis, it's all about perception and belief.

People talk about being unable to push a string. But in reality, when enough leverage is applied to a fiat currency, that is precisely what you're doing. Quite successfully in fact if you can suspend disbelief and act as if all is well and no basic problems exist.

Of course, there is an end point to this game but that end point is not here and now. While people point to the exponetial debasement of the dollar since the Fed was created (over 90% depending on how you measure it) infinity is a long way off and that final 5-10% can be sliced and diced for many more years.

The key is to create a continuous illusion that (at the very least) things are not getting worse quickly. It's amazing the tolerance people have for pain and worsening conditions when they feel they are not alone in their misery, that others are no better or worse than they are.

That old saying, misery loves company, is apt in this case. All you need look towards for proof is the downward spiral of an alcoholic or drug addict. Just when you think they won't tolerate it any more, they plunge further into the pit. In addition, the worse thing get, the more desperate people will become for someone, anyone, to promise them things will get better.

The more desperate people become, the more irrational they become. Hope does not need to be quantifiable or even realistic. It just needs to be believable and the definition of believable becomes less and less exacting the worse conditions become.

Don't for a minute think things can't get worse without a revolution happening. People will gladly go down with the ship as long as they feel others are going with them. Keeping up with the Joneses also works in reverse.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

I believe that hope is actually a very admirable quality to have because when life looks bleak, what else is there but to hope and live to smile another day.  The alternative is to wallow in despair.  Having said that, hope coupled with inaction is a pathetic reliance on miracles.  I've read stories of people who have overcome what seemed to be certain death because they dared to hope, and so they carried on one gruelling step after the next until they somehow managed to overcome the insurmountable.  The key decision that saved them was the recognition that sitting in a fetal position hoping was a more certain end than plodding forward, however painful that was.

I would be more optimistic if we were making motions to move forward but I'm afraid you are correct in saying that we will likely continue to believe and hope in this illusion, waiting for a miracle, while the end draws nearer.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed. There is a world of difference between proactive hope, backed by positive action and honest intent, and irrational and mindless hope, which usually springs from the fetal position and is part of the denial process.

As I said in my last article and in many comments, false hope binds us to impossible conditions and situations. Authentic hope can often be the spark that builds towards a true recovery. Inauthentic hope simply numbs the brain and imprisons the body/mind in a closed loop of despair and depression. It is exactly this type of false hope that is endlessly peddled by our so called leaders.

Just enough hope to allow yourself to practice denial and victim hood. Not so much hope that you feel cheated enough to pick up arms and fight back when the promises don't materialize.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 17:15 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

I hope this crisis ends quickly. We will rebuild our economy.

I hope we return to honesty

I hope my children will see the recovery

I hope we rebuild our government with the constitution as basis.

I hope we jail those who caused this mess.

I hope greed dies and love and truth flourishes.

 

Now wheres that damn lamp i am supposed to rub.

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 13:42 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Good stuff Tyler & Co.

"The Future will be better tomorrow" - DQ

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/30/2009 - 17:21 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

No time to worry time to bodysurf in Hawaii.  Just as Hoover liked to fly fish in the last Great Depression.

 

Hoover registered a humorous protest against such modern distractions as "telephone bells, church bells, office boys, columnists, pieces of paper and the household chores." Fishing was a welcome alternative. Besides, wrote Hoover, no one ever went to jail while fishing "unless they forgot to buy a license."

Wed, 12/30/2009 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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