This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the market "completely ignoring" the total chaos and complete cacophony out of the tragicomic DC soap opera which is transitioning into less of a comedy and into more of a tragedy with each passing day. For everyone still wearing rose-colored glasses here's a refresher: stocks dropped, the S&P expressed in dollar terms, or adjusted for loss in dollar purchasing power is now negative for the year, bonds tumbled despite a "strong" auction driven almost entirely by Direct Bidders on the margin, and, the kicker, US CDS is now at 56 bps: US default risk is now the highest since February 2010.

US CDS:

The S&P priced in dollars:

Here is one attempt at an explanation from the media, always so eager to assign plotlines to an otherwise irrational market:

Vigorous bidding for this week's entire $66 billion worth of government debt supply was expected to rekindle a bond market rally that had sent benchmark yields to their lowest more than seven months on Tuesday.

Instead the afternoon market sell-off left traders and analysts scratching heads, looking for answers.

"We were surprised by the resilience of the market going into this week's supply. It's quite ironic that we ended up lower after a strong auction," said Rich Bryant, head of Treasury trading at MF Global in New York.

Traders and analysts blamed the day's perplexing market action on a combination of factors.

Those included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks that the U.S. central bank is "not prepared at this point" to take action on more stimulus, competition from a $1.75 billion 30-year bond deal from J.P. Morgan, and a news report Washington has reached a budget deal but the size of cuts was smaller-than-expected.

Shortly after the 30-year auction that briefly helped pare losses, Dow Jones Newswires reported the White House and Congressional leaders could agree to about $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts and might be able to agree to an additional $200 billion in cuts.

"The market is telling you that the cuts are not deep enough," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.

Here's another: the ponzi is starting to unravel, as evidenced by the unprecedented amount of micromanagement in every single aspect of the market - in the US (the Chairman's every word, out of context, can now move the market up and down by 20 S&P points), in Europe (the ECB - nuff said), in China (Japan 's BOJ JPY intervention last night, China's interbank markets locked up for a third week in a row needing PBOC intervention at each step), and virtually everywhere else where non-centrally planned money still flows.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:10 | 1457751 mynhair
mynhair's picture

They are worried the ceiling will be raised.

Anyone else see that dump in the long bond at 1:34 when the Oweblahma blahhed about a deal?

There will be no sell out by the House.  Bank it.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:25 | 1457953 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

The BANKS want the US to "fail."  "They" (the market makers) will demand more interest.  Both parties want a "default" or stressed economy.  How else can Bill Gross get the 10 year  yield above 5-10%?

What is going on is no different than what happens to all those "3rd world" countries that borrow World Bank money to build infrastructure, miss payments, the IMF comes in and does a workout for DIP financing to JPM, GS, C, etc. and now there is more debt that can't be serviced.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:09 | 1458026 Girl Trader
Girl Trader's picture

For a detailed exposition, see The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:00 | 1458132 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

For a steaming pile of crap, see The Shock Doctrine, by Red Jewess. I'm still waiting for her book on Disaster Socialism.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:23 | 1458188 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You are a witless cretin.

 

But, I won't hold that against you.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:38 | 1458461 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

'Debt ceiling' drama is just 'create crisis-introduce solution' tactic by the elite. The facade of rivalry is to secure the dual party paradigm. Democrats, Repblicans all play for the same team. Know which one?

"We must keep the people busy with political antagonisms. We'll therefore speed up the question of reform for the democratic party, and protection for the republican party.

By divinding the electorate this way, we'll be able to have them spend their energies at struggling amongst themselves on questions that have no importance to us."

United States Bankers Magazine, 1892.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 02:29 | 1458553 Maxter
Maxter's picture

I hope more people could understand that.  Even here on zerohedge people still blames democrates for this or republicans for that, but while doing so, they forget to see the real ennemies.

 

Edit: see some posts below for a sad exemple of this..

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:53 | 1458334 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Junked; unreadable format.

 

Remediation: Ditch the italics.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:11 | 1458158 alagon
alagon's picture

pftt....Read Rothbard....

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:16 | 1458217 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

++ I also like the guy following in his footsteps, Thomas Woods.

Here is a good video of TW offering some good insites relevant to the current topic of the debt thingymagikdud

Gold and the Good Guys

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:47 | 1458321 zeusman
zeusman's picture

I guess after running up huge debt/deficits under Reagan and Bush administrations these righteous god loving, science hating republicans have found religion.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:22 | 1458383 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> these righteous god loving, science hating republicans have found religion

 

Hey, a lot of that was pissed away on the military so that makes it ok.  Take out of social security what they spend on war.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 06:39 | 1458708 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Question: what has a larger unfunded liability - defense or social security?

...waiting...

If you don't like deficits, why do you support social security?  (Note: this is a really tough question for progressive-Marxists)

And the capstone question: What is it that you find so unfair?  (Uh oh...deep stab into the heart of the Marxist's envy gene)

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1459171 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> what has a larger unfunded liability - defense or social security?

The military was never funded in the first place so your question is an irrevelant straw man.

>>...waiting...

You expect an instintanious answer?  You don't understand how the internet works, do you?

>> why do you support social security?

Because it was paid for on a weekly basis by the folks who were promised a payback.  Because social security helps the old folks feed themselves.  I'm more into life and living rather than killing civilians.  What don't you under stand about that?

 

>> progressive-Marxists

My, aren't you a well trained wingnut. Beck/Rush would be proud.  Learn to think for yourself, stooge.

>>What is it that you find so unfair?

How about working class people aren't getting what they paid for in order to fund the militiary industrial complex and give tax breaks to the most well off segment of society?

>>  (Uh oh...deep stab into the heart of the Marxist's envy gene)

Well trained parrot.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 12:08 | 1459798 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Nicely arranged empty statements. 

The notion of "working class people" is a moniker of a Marxist.  We don't have classes here, and no one is irrevocably bound to be in any tax bracket indefinitely.  The notion of a "tax break" being "given" also supports your twisted view that the government is the originator of the funds.

You're thought that the unfunded liability of social security is irrelevant is evidence that you live in denial.  Social security was a ruse from its inception by your all-mighty FDR (who used the cover of war to launch into the great socialist society, I might add).  It was a linear transfer payment at the start, and now it is simply a transfer payment that goes through a brokerage house because of the inability to balance the budget.

I may not understand how the internet works, as you say (I'm not Al Gore, I didn't invent it), but I can spell instantaneous correctly.  (They don't teach spelling at Hahvahd?)

Tell you what, let's start by cutting corporate income taxes to zero.  In your view, that would level the playing field with all of the tax-evading corporations, anyway.  Then shift all of the tax burden onto consumption, with obvious exemptions for staple items & necessities.  Fairness as far as the eye can see, as those who can afford more pay more in taxes.  And then investment incentives for those really, really rich people (not you) to start up some new businesses and get more people working.  (Cuz we don't want them just hoarding it, right?).

Let me stop...sorry, I forgot I'm trying to educate an ideologue who has not read the Constitution nor understands free markets.  So dig deep and ask yourself what it is that makes you so mad about your plight and why it's everyone else's fault.

Cheers!  :D

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:46 | 1458411 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They never lost their religion. Listen closely, and you can hear them pray:

Tax Cuts! Tax Cuts! Tax Cuts!

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 06:34 | 1458707 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

As I've posted before, I love it when those that earn less than I pay in taxes make "fairness" statements about taxation and what it means to the economy.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 06:32 | 1458706 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Where two or more [earth-worshipping, constitution-undoing progressive-Marxists] are gathered in the name of socializing every output...reality will be scarce.

I love it when one progressive-Marxist musters up enough of a green-tea-and-tofu high to blurt out a (seemingly original) salvo against a non-Gaia worshipper - before scampering back under the bed - and a chorus of 'em latch right on with shallow attaboy snipes.

We look forward to y'all having something insightful to offer.  I know it might be a while...

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:13 | 1457763 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If you don't want to be exposed to what's likely to become a much more volatile market, just buy some physical gold, which is a traditional™ central banker's preference during such times, and wait for the storm to pass.

 


  Ben Bernanke stars in 'The Gold Tradition'
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:13 | 1457767 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Partial to silver, meeself.  Works better against bearded Libs, and is cheaper.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:16 | 1457778 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Cloves of garlic and a medallion of Graceland around the neck keeps them away too

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:18 | 1457781 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Doesn't work as well in a 12 gauge pump, tho.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:28 | 1457804 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

i would 2nd that

But add the LED bright light that flickers so you blind the bastered right before you blast him

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:36 | 1457826 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

I'd throw in a video of seizure bots playing on your smartphone..  http://www.frostbot.com/SR.htm

just to be sure.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:05 | 1458015 toady
toady's picture

Damn it!

Now my kid is flopping around like a fish out of water!

Thanks alot!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:39 | 1457839 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Plus a laser. Better for shooting from the hip.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:08 | 1458021 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

or a sawed-off/pistol gripped auto shotgun loaded with buck shot.. picture a hand grenade that explodes one directionally in your hand.. good for dark spaces and rounding corners.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:48 | 1458103 Truffle_Shuffle
Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Just got a saiga 12 myself outfitted with a pistol grip.  Picked up several 10-round clips and managed to secure some law enforcement issued 00 tactical buckshot.  Nothing like an AK style shotgun...real zombie killer.    

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:34 | 1458393 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you need a good gun smith.. to turn that gun into a gun that wont jam.. or just buy a benelli crio.. ??

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:20 | 1458437 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You have obviously never fired a Saiga.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:13 | 1458427 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Hey now! Violence is wrong, mmmkaaay . . . 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 06:41 | 1458709 Neoisolationist
Neoisolationist's picture

I've been told that #4 buckshot is preferred as a defense load. I think it's got 27 .25 caliber balls in it.

I bought a saiga-12 also. Just need to cycle about 250 rounds through it to break it in.

 

I undersatnd it doesn't handle light loads very well, so watch out.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:09 | 1458024 poopyjim
poopyjim's picture

but then you reveal your location... =/

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:00 | 1458123 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The Tm.

Adding a laser,or a mounted light on any weapon gives the attacker/intruder the upper hand, even night sights will give your position away.

Never allow the Intruder the upper hand,do not investigate, place yourself in a solid defensive position, and let it/him/them come to YOU.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:32 | 1458204 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Night-vision goggles.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:50 | 1458226 uneducated minion
uneducated minion's picture

+8 +1 in the chamber... BOOOM!  That pressure switch is the shizz...

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:36 | 1457828 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

T                                                                                                                      

   C

       B

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1457814 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ben Bernanke was appointed by Bush, who is a Republican.  Remember, we are all Keynesians.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:50 | 1457999 Pirate of the P...
Pirate of the Perineum's picture

I didn't know being a Lib and a Republican were mutually exclusive.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:11 | 1458029 toady
toady's picture

It can be confusing.

None of my republican friends are conservative...

Black is white, up is down, cats and dogs cohabitating.

I guess we aren't in Kansas anymore Toto.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:27 | 1458444 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Totolly astute observation.

ORI

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:23 | 1458059 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The problem is the terms have gotten all stretchy and queer. It's all double plus good now, I guess.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:31 | 1458072 V in PA
V in PA's picture

What does Bwaney Fwank have to do with this?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:12 | 1458165 UGrev
UGrev's picture

There's an asshole in the mix somewhere.. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:14 | 1458502 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Your avatar is solid.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:20 | 1458280 kito
kito's picture

youve taken quite an interest in queers lately spas

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:15 | 1458505 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Your mom has been taking an interest in queers lately.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 04:35 | 1458606 Popo
Popo's picture

Right,  because they'll never just tax gold transactions at 50% and drive the price through the floor.

Nor would they ever establish an export tarriff on gold to prevent you from selling it abroad.   

Gold is a fantastic hedge against inflation.  

But be cautious brother:  It is not and has never been, fantastic protection against tyranny.

Keep a few eggs in different baskets.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 08:31 | 1458929 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Am I on ZH or the "Guns & Ammo" website.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 08:32 | 1458930 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Oops - dup.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:13 | 1457768 Nate H
Nate H's picture

tyler can you graph US CDS vs SPX?  My guess is 2007-early 2009 it was pretty correlated but has diverged of late...? 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:14 | 1457769 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture
US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries

 

Yup, only in this bizarro world would raising the ceiling be considered a default 'de-risk' situation.   Why don't they just add a hundred trillion to the ceiling and boost the rating to AAA

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:38 | 1457834 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We're insolvent...so looks like we might be in trouble unless we take on more debt! Bizarro world.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:29 | 1458447 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

not really SD1. Rhetorically or other-wise, in this world, debt has only one way to go, higher or Bust. It is the very basis of the game.

Now the thing I wonder about, given that the cartel has detailed notes on history that many of us plebs lack... the out-come of this game is obvious. Given. Baked in the cake.

Timeline is almost a choice thing, so many ways to crash a drunken Elephaunt.

So, what is the trigger? Elenin? 

I'm starting to get "drawn" to the Elenin theory. 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/dublinmick-shared-this/

 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:04 | 1458492 Hapte
Hapte's picture

I was turned on to Elenin via a poster here asking you your thoughts on it. I'm finding it uncomfortably difficult to totally discount the possibility. Good thing is we don't have to wait very long to find out...

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:54 | 1458531 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hapte, good to know. Something of that magnitude, trackable and being tracked as we speak, should be common knowledge, eh?

And it's around the corner, so we'll find out soon enough.

ORI

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:53 | 1457835 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I believe we have been throwing money at the problems for many years now. But yeah your right, why dont we just raise the debt ceiling to umm 700 Trillion? That would at least give us a little breathing room.

A Default would just be another nail in the coffin for this economy. Nothing that has happen recently is to promote any type of growth or expansion.

Its just insane to really say the least     http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:35 | 1457971 jm
jm's picture

What is bizarre is that people pay premium on this scenario.  Who actually thinks the Fed will settle up these busted trades wiht no haircut?  What kind of determination will you get with uncle gorilla sitting in the room?

What is bizarre is that none of the actors wrapped up in this hubris are willing to give even an inch for their constituents.

What is bizarre is that people talk as if it is a trfile that the United States defaults. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:35 | 1458077 V in PA
V in PA's picture

Michelle has a lot of  determination

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:09 | 1458153 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Ur ignorant. Gub'mint has 10x the monthly debt service in real income ea. month. The crap about Default is TARP all over again...."give us another 3 trillion or we''ll crash this sucker now!" Same old.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:52 | 1458332 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Junked; unreadable format.

Remediation: Ditch the italics.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:05 | 1458141 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

No, then they couldn't do this periodic posturing and pretending to "fiscal responsibility". I'm still wondering how much the (fake) spending cutz are going to be; that's the only real excitement.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:15 | 1457771 spinone
spinone's picture

C'mon. .56, the largest and most liquid market in the world, grain exporter, worlds largest manufacturer, 7 CBG.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:15 | 1457774 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Vigilantes are gonna get burned.  Anyone betting on a deal will.  Buy GOV on the dips.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:15 | 1457775 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Can we just not toss a coin on this debt thing? Double or quits? Far more civil than this sick never-ending charade.

Either way, your jewish overlords will win. You are slaves, you are owned.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:42 | 1457850 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The overlords dont even care about 95% of the people, they serve no purpose theyre called 'useless eaters' and the plan to exterminate them all is already in motion.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:00 | 1457892 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

WTF you do? Overlords? grow up.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:52 | 1458114 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Jewish overlords

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodostein.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 00:31 | 1458453 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

WTF? Overlords? Such a kind term he used.

Perhaps you need a peek into the dark side? 

Pay a visit to Wideawakeistaan. ;-)

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/05/20/hey-america/

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:00 | 1458248 sentient
sentient's picture

so why do we bother dealing with them.....  during the movie gangs of new york at the end the right solution was come to.....

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1457886 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Must be nice have enemy to blame so don't have to look at self, old stinky finger.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:21 | 1457939 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Youre an idiot. Take a hike, or an English class.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:38 | 1458084 V in PA
V in PA's picture

hukd on fonics werks 4 u

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:05 | 1457900 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Really?  Are we still riding this whole ideology that these people are "Jews"?

Judaism is a belief system and an ethnic group.  These "overlords" are no more Jewish than I am a table cloth.  They are corrupt, evil, and powerful assholes yes, but Jews, no. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:15 | 1458175 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Greenspan; Rothschild; Warburg; Strauss-Kahn; Bernanke; Fuld; Madoff; Schapiro; Rubin; J. Paulson...etc.....Netanyahu addresses "US" Congress, gets 29 standing O's.....etc...etc.   Must make memo: "not Jews". OK. Got it.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:51 | 1458330 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Junked; unreadable format.

 

Remediation: Ditch the italics.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:16 | 1457779 Rainman
Rainman's picture

More better news, all the insolvent Euro banks will pass their piss test

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-14/stress-test-magic-makes-greece-s-bust-disappear-jonathan-weil.html

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:20 | 1457780 Debt Rolling
Debt Rolling's picture

The problem in pricing the bankruptcy of the US is that we cannot know what the Federal Reserve is doing behind closed doors. Are they still monetizing some coupons without saying it? Everything is possible, after the mountain of lies and "kick-the-can" episodes we've witnessed since 2007. What's for sure is that secrecy would achieve better results than transparency in this case. 

Will the 10yr rate finally cross 4% during our lifetime? Or will Ben monetize before that? Impossible to know. That's why there's only one trade: gold. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:38 | 1458085 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

actually i just recieved this secret video of "what's going on behind the scenes" vis a vis default and "global negotiations" to prevent said catastrophe. See if you can guess which is the American:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enJwYaeolXc&feature=player_detailpage

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:18 | 1457783 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Superb reporting as always ZH.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:20 | 1457789 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Lets be honest, the odds of a default are zero.

 

They are not going to let their debt empire crumble... the elite are obviously doubling back and re-thinking their game plan.

 

They are going to preserve the economy in its current form because of the way that the Euro Experiment is falling apart... they wanted it to collapse, but not that quickly, they don't have the infrustructure in place to maintain control and power with a collapse this soon.

Social Security checks? not going out? doesn't effect me I never get one, never think I am ever going to get one.

If they don't send the checks out, then I guess we can all just stop taking SS deductions on our checks no? seems logical to me, when the remedy of SS is taken away, then they have no authority to collect what they don't intend to pay out.

This is all just a "show", they are manipulating the minds of the public trying to make the dependants fear that they will lose their hand-outs... they are trying to get the dependent class angry and insight rage to vote for the party that promisses the most inter class theft.

Capitalism didn't fail, trickle down economics failed because all the money left the country and went abroad.

Poor business policices completely slaughtered mainstreet... mainstreet has been... EVISCERATED AND GOUGED AND RAPED AND BEATEN AND STEPPED ON, and Wallstreet has eseentially been propped up artificially by the government and fed to "portray" a healthy economic level, while realisticly the cash cow is dead, banks aren't really solvent, they are just "zombie banks" going through the "act and spirit" of banking, but in reality the music has stopped and there are no chairs, everyone falls down, ashes to ashes dust to dust.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:40 | 1457843 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> make the dependants fear that they will lose their hand-outs.

 

I beg to differ.  SS is not hand outs.  These folks paid out of every check for what they are getting.  If you made your mortgage payments faithfully for 30 years, wouldn't you feel like you owned your house?  I think you'd be a little sensitigve to folks saying it was a hand out.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:06 | 1457905 oldman
oldman's picture

Hey grey7,

I don't think people understand that those of us already getting a return of our SS contributions is going to be paid; we will be because there's enough for us to get back what we paid in.

The ones who will be shorted are the ones who are still paying in minus 15million without work. you are correct; it is not an entltlement but a return on investment for 40 years of labor that was never funded by the same dudes will not honor a nation's promise.

MSM and the internet have propagandized this 'entitlement' idea until these fools are brain-washed.

Sorry, but there is not a thing-to-do with such material

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:07 | 1458018 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You paid what everyone paid, a tax. There is no suit case full of Social Security funds. It has already been spent. It is pay as you go. I'm sorry to break this to you but you were lied to and you are perpetuating that lie.

Here is what the SS trust fund looks like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSXbgfKFWg

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:37 | 1458299 Bob
Bob's picture

Here is, in fact, what the SSTF looks like:

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/specialissues.html

What part of assets and government debt payment is so hard to understand?

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 08:18 | 1458889 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

IOUs from a government which is running trillion dollar annual deficits and has a 14+ trillion dollar debt. Oh, yeah, that is totally different from a suitcase full of IOUs from two broke and unemployed dummies. Thanks for proving my point, nitwit.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 09:07 | 1459007 Bob
Bob's picture

No more an "IOU" than any other Treasury debt.  Just the fact of the matter . . . sorry to piss on your Stupid Day Parade. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 09:49 | 1459112 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I'd say the difference is that those IOUs are not payable without printing money unlike previous Treasury debt during times of Social Security surpluses. That might be a slight difference.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 12:03 | 1459766 Bob
Bob's picture

They're no different wrt government obligation than Treasuries held by foreign sovereigns, pension funds, banks, hedge funds, etc. 

Either the gov pays its debts, or it defaults.  By definition.  

The problem with SS is that there is an army of proudly stupid propagana tools out there spreading indefensible lies about the matter. 

They don't want the truth.  They are passionately committed to spreading lies, pure and simple. 

There's nothing complicated about the financial issue.  But this has nothing to do with fiances for those people, much as they posture being "serious adults" on the matter. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 14:23 | 1460319 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

So there is no difference between debts the government owes to itself to pay for future liabilities, which are not counted in the total 14+ trillion debt, it says it will pay to its citizens and direct obligations owed to investors who bought Treasuries? Okey dokey.

"The problem with SS is that there is an army of proudly stupid propagana tools out there spreading indefensible lies about the matter. 

They don't want the truth.  They are passionately committed to spreading lies, pure and simple. "

Project much?

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1462191 Bob
Bob's picture

Well, when you put it like that . . .

My apologies, by the way. 

My perspective and your analysis both address the SSTF and its stakeholders as "investors."  Clearly this is legitimate, since the SSTF has purchased Treasury debt rather than holding unproductive cash balances, just as any "investors" who have purchased Treasury securities in any form do. 

The sticking point between us appears to be creditor priority.  Thank you for so clearly delineating the argument. 

You view the SSTF's "Special Issue" securities as subordinate to open market treasuries.  And, from a standard business accounting and legal perspective, that does make sense. It would make a strong argument in bankruptcy court. 

But it becomes an issue only when government insolvency/bankruptcy is reached.  Until that time, the debt--like marketable treauries--are simply debts/liabilities.  We could arguably include them with the light bill--as long as Treasury makes its payments, it remains solvent.  When it stops paying its bills, whether by choice or necessity, it is in default.  By definition. 

How we view the various debts, including securities held by SSTF, becomes relevant only when we approach BK.  Obviously the case can be made that we are presently at just that point.  Yet nobody is talking about default in any credible way.  And writing off the treasuries held by SSTF would constitute a default . . . even the ratings agencies would surely have to regard it as a "technical default," yes?

No, I suppose that in reality they would cheerlead it.  But that's the ratings agencies.  The reasoning favoring recognition of a write off as a default is legit.   Of course, default would be subject to political forces, which would favor protection of the SS debts, if anything.  Like it or not, nobody knows what the majority would actually decide in that position and how that might affect the outcome.  Why not nationalize the banking system instead, say? 

Until then, however, it's an absolutely unanswered question of whether we are going to write it off.  And that is a conversation that nobody has had.  At this point, in the reality we all now inhabit, the SSTF is both robustly solvent and not "empty", holding "IOU's," or the sad voice of "the money is gone." 

That's an alternative universe . . . one existing only in the minds of the propagandists. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:23 | 1457946 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

These people paid in $10 a month and are getting $900 a month back, dont tell me they paid, liberal dumbass.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:44 | 1457993 oldman
oldman's picture

put out a single piece of fact and the trolls deny it without a thought

your facts are WRONG

I know I paid in so much that the first twenty years were not even counted in determination of what I recieve

and even if you had any basis for you comment think about what $10 per month bought in 1939 against now

Com'on, brother do the math  a new ford was only $700 when our grandfathers were kicking in $10/mo and also the employer kicked an equal(a bit more) share in order not to have to pay higher wages.

And if you want to fight an oldman name the time  it is not you, 'bro, but you'll do as an excuse for me to get rid of the frustration of being with so many rednecks

Actually, I feel better for having written the above so--------sail on sailor, it's a big sea

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:11 | 1458032 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

'bro? What letters have been replaced by the apostrophe? Just curious, American dog... |-(

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:50 | 1458414 markam
markam's picture

Gee, lets see a few years for example

year  tax rate

1954  2.25

1970  6.9

1980  8.1

1984 14.0

1990 15.3

I would say anyone paying in over the last 25 years is getting screwed compared to earlier generations.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:18 | 1458049 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

You are the an ignorant dumbass.  Consider, too, that the dollars we paid in are being paid in highly inflated my dollars, some worth 10 percent of the dollars we paid in. 

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 08:22 | 1458907 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeah, so have the government 'pay you back' with printed dollars, because there is no other way to pay the liabilities, which causes more inflation. You're some kind of genius.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1457844 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not even 1% of the public could tell you anything about the 'debt ceiling' drama, even less could tell you within 5 trillion dollars what the reported debt is. Youre overthinking everything, one morning soon youll see an event that makes 9-11 look small, and it will just be over.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:11 | 1458159 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...yeah, it's called ''sudden destruction'', and like a thief it robs a person, but, now it robs the people of every nation. 9, 11, 2011, ten years to the day, Iran as the new Iraq scapegoat combined with a global market that can't handle anything like it!!!

The strong delusion is surely upon the leaders of the nations, to say the least. The fact of just how evil it is defines the banks and the war machines behind the religious dogma and national claims of dominion. It's all bullshit and easy to discern the contempt at this point, no one can hide at this point. People just do not want to know, kinda like what the Germans did as Hitler was put on the stage. Now it's going to be ''Obama'' to the rescue, after the slaughter and the new global security system ''mark of the beast'' reality will seal the deal.

It's prophetic, so you can count on what ever slaughter being soon and it will announce the ensuing peace plan. Watch, this has got to be the time where the whole ''Nobel Prize'' for nuclear nonproliferation comes into play for the American President, which nobody can deny, which nobody can deny. It's just too perfect and ridiculous not to happen.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:56 | 1458417 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

my guess is Pakistan.. with the Gay Rights Fight that we (America, Oops the Government of America) started a few days a go.. considering the fragmentation within Pakistan's Government since then.. and the Osama (sighting) was found there (says the Corporate Owned News).. and the fact that Pakistan is making nice with China..

 

that whole land bridge from Iran to China, sour / heavy crude pipeline thing.. wowie! they look ripe for some 9-11 drama!

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 03:16 | 1458564 Maxter
Maxter's picture

Pakistan might be a good guess.  China moved 10 000 troups into Pakistan last year: http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2010/08/china-deploys-troops-in-pakistan...

 

But hey! why wage war only in one country when you can start WWIII?  I have seen too much propaganda against Iran to not think they will get attacked at the first chance we get.

 

I think what we are witnessing since the last 10 years are the big players positoning their troups around the world for the start of something big.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:46 | 1457860 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Let's be honest, I see a deduction for SS, and so do my employees.  That is paid for fucknut.  So long as we are being honest, when you are borrowing money to pay interest, then you have already defaulted.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:24 | 1457949 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly right, all the emotional twisting and turning aside, when you have to borrow money just to pay the interest on your debt youre already defaulted. And BTW everyone dont forget we are NOT borrowing anymore.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:36 | 1458517 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

And BTW everyone don't forget we are NOT borrowing anymore.

Well put SheepDog. It is, after all, impossible to really borrow from yourself. You get to keep your wool this season!

The shearing will commence upon the multitudes without your presence. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:21 | 1457942 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

SS is actually fine if there's no other government spending.  A more logical approach would be to stop paying income taxes and keep paying FICA. 

You could reasonably insist the SS checks must roll, just demand a cut of the rest of the Federal budget to zero.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:24 | 1457796 mynhair
mynhair's picture

I used to think people with money were smart.  I have since learned they are stupid Lib morons that have been sucking the lifeblood out of the world, with the help of dumber gnats in the LameStream Media.  It stops here and now.  You Libs need to find safe corners in which to cower and soil yourselves.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:34 | 1457820 Debt Rolling
Debt Rolling's picture

It has always been easier to become rich through monopolies, intellectual scams, porn, entertainment and casinos than from free market innovation. 

Why? Blame those who get sucked into buying. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:42 | 1457849 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> You Libs need to find safe corners in which to cower

 

Here I am.  Come and get me, bitch.  I dare you.  You blow hards are going to get a real awakening if things go down.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:43 | 1457851 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We dont want you, fend for yourself.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:47 | 1457978 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Things have already gone down. It just hasn't come to you, yet. It's coming for almost everyone, you included. How do I know?

You have enough food in your house for a maximum of 3 days, at most.

You are completely invested in US Dollars.

You have no guns or any other form of self protection.

In short you are sheep.

Not only will you starve what little you have will be taken from you.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:46 | 1458220 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>>  You have enough food in your house for a maximum of 3 days, at most.

>> You are completely invested in US Dollars.

>> You have no guns or any other form of self protection.

>> In short you are sheep.

>> Not only will you starve what little you have will be taken from you.

I love it when you ignorant morons spew your hateful bile out of ignorance and show your hand.

I cashed out of the city a couple  of years ago.  No need to go to deep into  my preps, but I worked hard, saved, and when I saw trouble on the horizon, I was able to make my move and retire to the country. I way ahead of most of you.  I have a farm and I'm well established in farm and ranch country.  I'm looking forward to you young, lean, mean, city shit heads to come on out to take what we've got.  You'll be taken down long before you get anywhere near my neck of the woods, if you're lucky.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:22 | 1458181 Hapte
Hapte's picture

Lol, junked into oblivion, may I suggest changing your avatar to something less... Black power? btw, these "blowhards" think collecting gunz and gold is going to save them (I think that's the plan for most yes? I'm not trying to strawman and correct me if I am wrong plz). What I think, is that they are very, very soft (no offense, but that's what being an old, covetous, hypocritical white man, does to you). Sry boize, younger, stronger, tougher and much, MUCH hungrier men are out there that are much better suited for the coming transition. Can't wait till it's time to actually sack-the-fuck-up.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:42 | 1458199 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Oogedy boogedy I'm real scared....

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:38 | 1458212 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Just to be clear, the H. Rap Brown shtick is getting pretty old among Joe Sixpacks aka The Devil White Man, especially since the Devil White Man - to - Righteous Oppressed Person of Color ratio is getting pretty thin.  As we head towards Detroit/Baltimore levels of demographics, goodies such as EBT cards, cushy VeeP positions in Diversity Development at Fortune 500 Corporations, and the like will start to wear thin too, and there will be fewer white faces to blame for the troublez.  We can either can the cheap "white man" shots and join together to keep the eye on the ball, or logical conclusions will be drawn, and the ol' US vs. THEM dynamic will build and build....

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:15 | 1458273 Hapte
Hapte's picture

I'm sorry if the "blowhards" I was clearly addressing in my post are caucasian, that just happens to be the case. I wouldn't term them "the devil" because I don't use that kind of hyberbole. I would say they are ethically weak, or more likely, they read Ayn Rand novel and becasuse it gave them a convenient way to rationalize thier inhearent selffish, eogtistic, small nature, they latched on to it. Anyway, lets get back on topic (thanks for your inane racebaiting digression btw!) Are YOU are Egoist coward that makes his(her?lol) wealth off the very same system you so despise? Do you throw around (often racist) hyperbole on the web becasue you can't satisfy your lady? Do you do ANYTHING to fight the big bad Feds or the power or the system, or fuck, even the mexicans/immigrants/nigs/whatever you hate?

 

Logic? lolz. Netz=rhetoric, get wise kid. Eye on the ball? Friend you don't know about my laserfuckingfocus ok? Join together? I'm not the whiney blowhard, bigot boyo, and hey, if any one of these dummies came to my door, they'd welcome to an asswhoopin and a hot meal (in that order) Thanks for playing!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:21 | 1458283 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Charlie Sheen!  I knew it was you!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:36 | 1458302 Hapte
Hapte's picture

Thanks for the victory comment! I knew I was winning but it's nice to get comfirmation.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:57 | 1458240 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> I suggest changing your avatar to something less... Black power?

I was wondering if anyone in this drawer full of dull knives was going to pick up on that.  Good catch. I'd be willing to bet not a single person who junked me has a clue as to the flag, other than you, possibly.  Junked for not spewing the moronic right wing bullshit.  I'm good with that.  There's some reasoning behind it, but it's not really relevant to much.  Just my own personal statement.  The black power flag means as much to me as the US flag anymore, hypocracy.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:31 | 1458294 Hapte
Hapte's picture

Relevence? Neh, just bored, op was a troll (White bigots, trip just as hard as they perceive nigs do when racialzied) so I could follow up with some truth (many ZH posters are 100% pusss). Hopefully I elecited a few lols from the literate like-minded, L'chaim! (thats joo for cheers retads)

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 10:01 | 1459143 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

No return to Israel for you eh?  Better to be a pompous liberal douche in the U.S. and A. with your N.Y.U.-style baloney slicing, or should I say pastrami slicing?  Also, in Israel, there is a real danger of your having to do something non-kool like picking tomatoes, driving a bus, working in a dull white collar office, just another Average Jacob.  Get a clue, old sport, to quote one Robert Zimmerman, It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, or if you prefer, I ain't gonna work on Blankfein's farm no more.....

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1460091 Hapte
Hapte's picture

Lol, what a dumb sucker. Fuck Israel, where were you when operation Cast Lead was launched? Out in front of the Israeli embassy I bet, rabblerousing/vandalising Zionist propaganda/getting aressted? (I didn't see you, but that dosn't mean your weren't there *shrugs*), you ever been to Gaza? The West bank? Can you even define "liberal"? Please do, then apply it to anything I have said (fail much?((hint: yes you do))). I have you spun bucko, what is it that you think I do for a living? (I know you have NO idea) I am clueless because... I don't like all talk, egoist pussies? Keep trying to pegionhole me, and apologize for the enemy (YES all-talk paper trading pussies are the enemy too), it's all your kind is good for; MARXIST! STATIST! LIBTARD! Whatever guy, keep being mediocre? I'm going to contiune to actually fight/ not participate because I care less about personal wealth than I do bringing this system down (I'm in the wrong place I know). GJ once again NOT refuting my claim, I enjoyed you're obvious fallacies. Round 3 fight!?

Salaam (that's A-raaab for peace, see what I did there? Am I a muslim now?)

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:47 | 1457863 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

That is right.  People with money are generally happy with the status quo, i.e. their status among the common quo.  They find the likelyhood of a collapse to be absurd. 

The down and out, on the other hand, don't have any trouble believing things are going to get much worse. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:35 | 1458210 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, you are a sock puppet, but I like you anyway my German friend.  Keep posting your silliness it is very entertaining.

 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:24 | 1457797 chump666
chump666's picture

partial default may occur.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:45 | 1457857 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Default is the plan. More to the point, AUSTERITY is the plan, as Max Keiser laid out a couple months ago when he was in Greece, he said 'Greece goes under, next the US right after'. The plan is not to keep limping along, the plan is to austerity the useless eaters. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:53 | 1457880 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

I hope so brother sheepdog, I really do.

Viva Apocalypse.  Lets get this party started.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:29 | 1457960 chump666
chump666's picture

partial default on China not interested in receiving interest in USD...possible. Point is, AAA going.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:16 | 1458046 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

so you are saying scrap your military and save $680 odd billion a year?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:32 | 1458201 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I don't believe Max said the U. S. would be "right after" Greece, but we are definitely in the queue.  I think some more Euro countries and then UK then our turn in the barrel.  You are right on SheepDog-One and I am humbly one Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:32 | 1458296 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Keiser clearly stated US is after Greece. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pJ_Lx9JEZU

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 01:37 | 1458518 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

When, as a nation you live beyond your means for decades, borrowing from posulated future income via debt, austerity is the only solution, the only means to a reset to equilibrium.  We have an unstable dynamical system that is at a critical point-a phase transition will occur.  Only the time frame is uncertain.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:27 | 1457803 chump666
chump666's picture

i am not a robot, weird triple posts

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1457812 mynhair
mynhair's picture

So edit them to blank, ya chump.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:24 | 1457950 chump666
chump666's picture

you do it for me pussy...just to busy

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 20:07 | 1458017 mynhair
mynhair's picture

It's 'too', moron.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 23:12 | 1458364 chump666
chump666's picture

oh a grammer checker...nice.  This guy probably only trades peanuts from his butnut...am I right?  Sad thing about forums is losarios

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:02 | 1458252 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

This guy is pretty much incomprehensible.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1457807 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Default is in the cards.....promise Notes (Dollars) backed by Debt...backed by ? the ability of taxpayers to pay the Debt?

Municipalities are insolvent across the country....real unemployment rates are over 20%...70% of our economy is consumer spending for things they don't need with money they don't have....25% is paperwork shuffling on Wall Street....only 5% of the GDP is actually productive....and to make matters worse....the "Job Czar" Immelt sent more jobs overseas then ANY other CEO in history....and so on.

My bet is on default....whther they word it that way or not, in reality we are already insolvent according to many economists.

Sad.....where is the Leadership?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:50 | 1457871 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, all things physical continue to detach further from all things paper.  Ergo, keep dumping paper to acquire, well anything physical and of survival/bartering value.  Empty heating oil tanks?  Fill them up, gonna be a long winter.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1457811 chet
chet's picture

That's actually not that high, is it?  Considering the circumstances.  What was happening in Feb of 2010?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1457836 Debt Rolling
Debt Rolling's picture

It is high considering the fact that US bonds have been ridiculously flat and overpriced for 1 year now, with rates not even in phase with inflation, and free market participation banned. 

The FED seems to have really stopped intervening since the end of QE2, and the results are beginning to appear. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:40 | 1457841 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Its a good thing no one can remember back that far

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:37 | 1457830 kito
kito's picture

sorry to digress, but did tyler cover the latest on the remaining silver sliver?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/07/silver-dealer-inventory-continues-to.html

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:44 | 1457852 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Hasn't really moved much recently. Registered is at 27.3 MM, total moved back up to over 100 MM.

By now we expect most readers will have the link and can check on their own.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 22:21 | 1458284 kito
kito's picture

sorry tyler, the dog ate my link....

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:43 | 1457831 swissinv
swissinv's picture

I really start to believe that the Republicans are serious about not raising the debt ceiling. Ron Paul is a honest man with ethical principals and he seems dead serious about not giving Obama a free ride. What if the unbelievable is getting true? They have good intention doing the right things but they seem not be aware what the consequences really are. You can't exit a Ponzi in one day.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1457865 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its not even a 'will they or wont they', its not about the budget or the debt, the plan is its time to pull the rug out from millions of americans....'useless eaters' as the elite calls them. All they do now is receive a check so they can eat, and the world it is a changin. Time to offload the ballast, in the ruling elites eyes. Dont get mad at me, they let it happen.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!