US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for the market "completely ignoring" the total chaos and complete cacophony out of the tragicomic DC soap opera which is transitioning into less of a comedy and into more of a tragedy with each passing day. For everyone still wearing rose-colored glasses here's a refresher: stocks dropped, the S&P expressed in dollar terms, or adjusted for loss in dollar purchasing power is now negative for the year, bonds tumbled despite a "strong" auction driven almost entirely by Direct Bidders on the margin, and, the kicker, US CDS is now at 56 bps: US default risk is now the highest since February 2010.


The S&P priced in dollars:

Here is one attempt at an explanation from the media, always so eager to assign plotlines to an otherwise irrational market:

Vigorous bidding for this week's entire $66 billion worth of government debt supply was expected to rekindle a bond market rally that had sent benchmark yields to their lowest more than seven months on Tuesday.

Instead the afternoon market sell-off left traders and analysts scratching heads, looking for answers.

"We were surprised by the resilience of the market going into this week's supply. It's quite ironic that we ended up lower after a strong auction," said Rich Bryant, head of Treasury trading at MF Global in New York.

Traders and analysts blamed the day's perplexing market action on a combination of factors.

Those included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks that the U.S. central bank is "not prepared at this point" to take action on more stimulus, competition from a $1.75 billion 30-year bond deal from J.P. Morgan, and a news report Washington has reached a budget deal but the size of cuts was smaller-than-expected.

Shortly after the 30-year auction that briefly helped pare losses, Dow Jones Newswires reported the White House and Congressional leaders could agree to about $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts and might be able to agree to an additional $200 billion in cuts.

"The market is telling you that the cuts are not deep enough," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.

Here's another: the ponzi is starting to unravel, as evidenced by the unprecedented amount of micromanagement in every single aspect of the market - in the US (the Chairman's every word, out of context, can now move the market up and down by 20 S&P points), in Europe (the ECB - nuff said), in China (Japan 's BOJ JPY intervention last night, China's interbank markets locked up for a third week in a row needing PBOC intervention at each step), and virtually everywhere else where non-centrally planned money still flows.

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mynhair's picture

They are worried the ceiling will be raised.

Anyone else see that dump in the long bond at 1:34 when the Oweblahma blahhed about a deal?

There will be no sell out by the House.  Bank it.

bankonzhongguo's picture

The BANKS want the US to "fail."  "They" (the market makers) will demand more interest.  Both parties want a "default" or stressed economy.  How else can Bill Gross get the 10 year  yield above 5-10%?

What is going on is no different than what happens to all those "3rd world" countries that borrow World Bank money to build infrastructure, miss payments, the IMF comes in and does a workout for DIP financing to JPM, GS, C, etc. and now there is more debt that can't be serviced.


Girl Trader's picture

For a detailed exposition, see The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein.

CompassionateFascist's picture

For a steaming pile of crap, see The Shock Doctrine, by Red Jewess. I'm still waiting for her book on Disaster Socialism.

Crisismode's picture

You are a witless cretin.


But, I won't hold that against you.

66Sexy's picture

'Debt ceiling' drama is just 'create crisis-introduce solution' tactic by the elite. The facade of rivalry is to secure the dual party paradigm. Democrats, Repblicans all play for the same team. Know which one?

"We must keep the people busy with political antagonisms. We'll therefore speed up the question of reform for the democratic party, and protection for the republican party.

By divinding the electorate this way, we'll be able to have them spend their energies at struggling amongst themselves on questions that have no importance to us."

United States Bankers Magazine, 1892.

Maxter's picture

I hope more people could understand that.  Even here on zerohedge people still blames democrates for this or republicans for that, but while doing so, they forget to see the real ennemies.


Edit: see some posts below for a sad exemple of this..

Ident 7777 economy's picture

Junked; unreadable format.


Remediation: Ditch the italics.

alagon's picture

pftt....Read Rothbard....

Drag Racer's picture

++ I also like the guy following in his footsteps, Thomas Woods.

Here is a good video of TW offering some good insites relevant to the current topic of the debt thingymagikdud

Gold and the Good Guys

zeusman's picture

I guess after running up huge debt/deficits under Reagan and Bush administrations these righteous god loving, science hating republicans have found religion.

grey7beard's picture

>> these righteous god loving, science hating republicans have found religion


Hey, a lot of that was pissed away on the military so that makes it ok.  Take out of social security what they spend on war.

mayhem_korner's picture

Question: what has a larger unfunded liability - defense or social security?


If you don't like deficits, why do you support social security?  (Note: this is a really tough question for progressive-Marxists)

And the capstone question: What is it that you find so unfair?  (Uh oh...deep stab into the heart of the Marxist's envy gene)

grey7beard's picture

>> what has a larger unfunded liability - defense or social security?

The military was never funded in the first place so your question is an irrevelant straw man.


You expect an instintanious answer?  You don't understand how the internet works, do you?

>> why do you support social security?

Because it was paid for on a weekly basis by the folks who were promised a payback.  Because social security helps the old folks feed themselves.  I'm more into life and living rather than killing civilians.  What don't you under stand about that?


>> progressive-Marxists

My, aren't you a well trained wingnut. Beck/Rush would be proud.  Learn to think for yourself, stooge.

>>What is it that you find so unfair?

How about working class people aren't getting what they paid for in order to fund the militiary industrial complex and give tax breaks to the most well off segment of society?

>>  (Uh oh...deep stab into the heart of the Marxist's envy gene)

Well trained parrot.

mayhem_korner's picture

Nicely arranged empty statements. 

The notion of "working class people" is a moniker of a Marxist.  We don't have classes here, and no one is irrevocably bound to be in any tax bracket indefinitely.  The notion of a "tax break" being "given" also supports your twisted view that the government is the originator of the funds.

You're thought that the unfunded liability of social security is irrelevant is evidence that you live in denial.  Social security was a ruse from its inception by your all-mighty FDR (who used the cover of war to launch into the great socialist society, I might add).  It was a linear transfer payment at the start, and now it is simply a transfer payment that goes through a brokerage house because of the inability to balance the budget.

I may not understand how the internet works, as you say (I'm not Al Gore, I didn't invent it), but I can spell instantaneous correctly.  (They don't teach spelling at Hahvahd?)

Tell you what, let's start by cutting corporate income taxes to zero.  In your view, that would level the playing field with all of the tax-evading corporations, anyway.  Then shift all of the tax burden onto consumption, with obvious exemptions for staple items & necessities.  Fairness as far as the eye can see, as those who can afford more pay more in taxes.  And then investment incentives for those really, really rich people (not you) to start up some new businesses and get more people working.  (Cuz we don't want them just hoarding it, right?).

Let me stop...sorry, I forgot I'm trying to educate an ideologue who has not read the Constitution nor understands free markets.  So dig deep and ask yourself what it is that makes you so mad about your plight and why it's everyone else's fault.

Cheers!  :D


snowball777's picture

They never lost their religion. Listen closely, and you can hear them pray:

Tax Cuts! Tax Cuts! Tax Cuts!

mayhem_korner's picture

As I've posted before, I love it when those that earn less than I pay in taxes make "fairness" statements about taxation and what it means to the economy.

mayhem_korner's picture

Where two or more [earth-worshipping, constitution-undoing progressive-Marxists] are gathered in the name of socializing every output...reality will be scarce.

I love it when one progressive-Marxist musters up enough of a green-tea-and-tofu high to blurt out a (seemingly original) salvo against a non-Gaia worshipper - before scampering back under the bed - and a chorus of 'em latch right on with shallow attaboy snipes.

We look forward to y'all having something insightful to offer.  I know it might be a while...

TruthInSunshine's picture

If you don't want to be exposed to what's likely to become a much more volatile market, just buy some physical gold, which is a traditional™ central banker's preference during such times, and wait for the storm to pass.


  Ben Bernanke stars in 'The Gold Tradition'
mynhair's picture

Partial to silver, meeself.  Works better against bearded Libs, and is cheaper.

Sophist Economicus's picture

Cloves of garlic and a medallion of Graceland around the neck keeps them away too

mynhair's picture

Doesn't work as well in a 12 gauge pump, tho.

camaro68ss's picture

i would 2nd that

But add the LED bright light that flickers so you blind the bastered right before you blast him

Calculated_Risk's picture

I'd throw in a video of seizure bots playing on your smartphone..

just to be sure.

toady's picture

Damn it!

Now my kid is flopping around like a fish out of water!

Thanks alot!

TheTmfreak's picture

Plus a laser. Better for shooting from the hip.

scatterbrains's picture

or a sawed-off/pistol gripped auto shotgun loaded with buck shot.. picture a hand grenade that explodes one directionally in your hand.. good for dark spaces and rounding corners.

Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Just got a saiga 12 myself outfitted with a pistol grip.  Picked up several 10-round clips and managed to secure some law enforcement issued 00 tactical buckshot.  Nothing like an AK style shotgun...real zombie killer.    

JW n FL's picture

you need a good gun smith.. to turn that gun into a gun that wont jam.. or just buy a benelli crio.. ??

Burnbright's picture

You have obviously never fired a Saiga.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Hey now! Violence is wrong, mmmkaaay . . . 

Neoisolationist's picture

I've been told that #4 buckshot is preferred as a defense load. I think it's got 27 .25 caliber balls in it.

I bought a saiga-12 also. Just need to cycle about 250 rounds through it to break it in.


I undersatnd it doesn't handle light loads very well, so watch out.

poopyjim's picture

but then you reveal your location... =/

DosZap's picture

The Tm.

Adding a laser,or a mounted light on any weapon gives the attacker/intruder the upper hand, even night sights will give your position away.

Never allow the Intruder the upper hand,do not investigate, place yourself in a solid defensive position, and let it/him/them come to YOU.

uneducated minion's picture

+8 +1 in the chamber... BOOOM!  That pressure switch is the shizz...

1100-TACTICAL-12's picture




Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ben Bernanke was appointed by Bush, who is a Republican.  Remember, we are all Keynesians.

Pirate of the Perineum's picture

I didn't know being a Lib and a Republican were mutually exclusive.

toady's picture

It can be confusing.

None of my republican friends are conservative...

Black is white, up is down, cats and dogs cohabitating.

I guess we aren't in Kansas anymore Toto.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Totolly astute observation.


Spastica Rex's picture

The problem is the terms have gotten all stretchy and queer. It's all double plus good now, I guess.

V in PA's picture

What does Bwaney Fwank have to do with this?

UGrev's picture

There's an asshole in the mix somewhere.. 

kito's picture

youve taken quite an interest in queers lately spas

Spastica Rex's picture

Your mom has been taking an interest in queers lately.

Popo's picture

Right,  because they'll never just tax gold transactions at 50% and drive the price through the floor.

Nor would they ever establish an export tarriff on gold to prevent you from selling it abroad.   

Gold is a fantastic hedge against inflation.  

But be cautious brother:  It is not and has never been, fantastic protection against tyranny.

Keep a few eggs in different baskets.

mmlevine's picture

Am I on ZH or the "Guns & Ammo" website.