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US Default Risk Jumps To Highest Since February 2010 On Debt Ceiling Worries
So much for the market "completely ignoring" the total chaos and complete cacophony out of the tragicomic DC soap opera which is transitioning into less of a comedy and into more of a tragedy with each passing day. For everyone still wearing rose-colored glasses here's a refresher: stocks dropped, the S&P expressed in dollar terms, or adjusted for loss in dollar purchasing power is now negative for the year, bonds tumbled despite a "strong" auction driven almost entirely by Direct Bidders on the margin, and, the kicker, US CDS is now at 56 bps: US default risk is now the highest since February 2010.
US CDS:
The S&P priced in dollars:
Here is one attempt at an explanation from the media, always so eager to assign plotlines to an otherwise irrational market:
Vigorous bidding for this week's entire $66 billion worth of government debt supply was expected to rekindle a bond market rally that had sent benchmark yields to their lowest more than seven months on Tuesday.
Instead the afternoon market sell-off left traders and analysts scratching heads, looking for answers.
"We were surprised by the resilience of the market going into this week's supply. It's quite ironic that we ended up lower after a strong auction," said Rich Bryant, head of Treasury trading at MF Global in New York.
Traders and analysts blamed the day's perplexing market action on a combination of factors.
Those included Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks that the U.S. central bank is "not prepared at this point" to take action on more stimulus, competition from a $1.75 billion 30-year bond deal from J.P. Morgan, and a news report Washington has reached a budget deal but the size of cuts was smaller-than-expected.
Shortly after the 30-year auction that briefly helped pare losses, Dow Jones Newswires reported the White House and Congressional leaders could agree to about $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts and might be able to agree to an additional $200 billion in cuts.
"The market is telling you that the cuts are not deep enough," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.
Here's another: the ponzi is starting to unravel, as evidenced by the unprecedented amount of micromanagement in every single aspect of the market - in the US (the Chairman's every word, out of context, can now move the market up and down by 20 S&P points), in Europe (the ECB - nuff said), in China (Japan 's BOJ JPY intervention last night, China's interbank markets locked up for a third week in a row needing PBOC intervention at each step), and virtually everywhere else where non-centrally planned money still flows.
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>> I really start to believe that the Republicans are serious about not raising the debt ceiling.
They are deadly serious about the system defaulting so they can welch on the obligations of social security and pensions. To the winners go the spoils and the wealthy will get wealthier. The two bit right wing supporters will get shit on just as bad as the two bit left wing folks. Did you think the tea baggers were going to somehow miraculously be welcomed into the ranks of the uber rich just because they were stupid enough to do exactly as they were told?
Re: Did you think the tea baggers were going to somehow miraculously be welcomed into the ranks of the uber rich just because they were stupid enough to do exactly as they were told?
So true. For 50+ years the political scam has been: Blue Team makes the government bigger concentrating the power in DC, the Red Team moved the benefits from the bottom to the top. Same trick over and over. The (R)etard and (D)umbass true-believers haven't figure out the trick yet. Doubt they ever will.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ infinity "+'s"
grey7beard take a hike, political moron.
Sheepdog, just because you can't cobble together a complete sentence doesn't mean you can't contribute. Go ahead, express some opinions on current events in your pigeon english. No need to lash out.
The Democrat Left wing had full control of congress and the presidency for 2.5 years and did not ONCE put forward a tax increase bill to pass and have signed.
The dirty little secret of the argument is that the Democrat caucus would not get majority votes within itself for a tax increase then, Or Now.
Senate Democrats - the majority caucus since 2007, including the entire meltdown - haven't voted in favor of, much less proposed, a budget for the Fed.Gov in over 2-years.
Leadership.
No, they are serious about getting 4 trillion in (fake) spending cutz. Then back to Ponzai as usual. Social Sec outgo is still funded by incoming FICA $$$, and other gov't real receipts are 10x monthly debt payments. Banksters, pols, Jew MSM howling about "default" 'cause they want another 3 trillion in play money - for speculation, vote buying, wars, etc.
Junked; unreadable format.
Remediation: Ditch the italics.
Re: What if the unbelievable is getting true?
The end of the empire, and the beginning of our Big-PoliceState fascism period. Won't be pleasant.
Uh, how do you exit a ponzi scheme?
Pretty sure they all end in one day.
What's this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UUNIeOB0whI
What do you mean 'whats this'? Duh?
Actually, as bad as it might be short term, maybe, just maybe other countries might think that if we do not raise the ceiling we are actually going to pay the piper, get our house in order and start over. It would be the prudent and responsible thing to do.
Sorry, another dumb post. What was I thinking.
Funeral dirge.
https://libertyrevival.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/milton-friedman-pay-off-...
Arf.
https://libertyrevival.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/milton-friedman-pay-off-...
Arf.
"The market is telling you that the cuts are not deep enough," said Mark Pawlak, market strategist with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York...
He must be clairvoyant because "the market" has been dead for a very long time. There is no market, there is only the bernank.
Yea Buzz I had to chuckle at that line too....'The market is telling us'? LOL what market?
It's so nice to see you continuously litter every thread with 50+ inane comments.
Every day, every article.
Is there any chance you could just STFU for a day or two? Maybe count your hams or something?
Don't be picking on the voice of reason dude or I'll have to, I'll, I'll junk you man.....I swear I will!
.
OT:
Anchors Cracks Up Over Man Arrested for Passing GasJuvenile news anchors can’t hold in their laughter about a man charged with assault after passing “odorous” gas in the presence of a police officer.
The more important story lies in plain site– how could a natural and uncontrollable function of the body be against the law?
All Libertarians.
Why are you all brain dead?
I equate you to the moron running MarketTicker, that blames his idiocy on everyone else.
Get off off Ron Paul and Keiser and InfoWars, and wake up!
You voted for Oblahma! You fukked up!
Now man up and examine your distorted vision of the world.
Most of the Libertarians I know didn't vote for Obama because he's a fucking Marxist.
We voted the party line.
But what have you done to better the world? It's easy to just bitch and moan but have you attempted to educate anyone about the bankster cartel and its death grip on the populace at large? Have you protested? Have you prepared your G.O.O.D. supplies?
Piss off you mouthy little twat.
What party line, you vegetable? You have no party. Name a local Libertarian you voted for. Name one you campaigned for. I'm out daily for true Conservatives, you?
Geez, another WTC type.
Another example of why an IQ test before voting should be required, as in what is your name?
True conservatives? Running in the US? You are as big a dope as anyone. Good God, are you serious? Yeah, just elect a couple conservative Republicans and they'll get DC fixed. Only a retard would believe that at this point.
Don't bring God into it. As a "true conservative" he's likely to go bat shit nuts if you bring his mythological master into this.
In all seriousness, let's set that shit aside and focus on the problem - the corrupt system. We can bitch about whether republicans or libertarians or whoever is right later. It's a false division meant to keep us from gaining any real power.
Like your posts mostly - but "true" conservatives don't exist - even if you think they're the real deal, once they've been ordained they turn on you. I'm a libertarian, if a gun was put to my head. Otherwise, they are all crooks after a few months in office. Its no different than prison - where even innocents learn how to really learn how to be criminal. Yeah, nearly everyone on this site is a repub when vote time comes, if they vote, but either way the elites are humping the gold out the back door as we speak. Anyway, rage against the machine and all...good talk, see ya around mynhair. (what does mynhair mean anyway?)
as in..."Mein Heer". Now goose step over that one.
"now goose step over that one" - I don't get it, advise.
He's fighting the good fight by posting hyperventilated screams about libtards here 100 times a day. The world's going to be a better place thanks to his efforts on the front lines of the innertoobz.
You must be the change you want to see in the world. Everything would be just fine if more assholes spent all day on their PCs rather than fucking things up in real-life.
In my experience, libertarians tend to blame themselves before anyone else being that individual liberty and responsibility are two sides of the same coin when it comes to the philosophy. Obama and Ron Paul are about as opposite as they come, so your comment that an individual would support both makes no sense. If you believe libertarianism provides a distorted vision of the world, could you bother to explain WHY that might be by providing an example or two? In what way are libertarians brain dead? What do people such as Ron Paul, Max Keiser, or Alex Jones say that you disagree with? Other than name calling for no particular reason, there is no argument here. On thing libertarian tend to appreciate is a reasonable argument. It would appear whatever philosophy you follow does not overly value reason or debate. So you are a statist democrat then? Who is unhappy that your president turned out to be a chocolate dipped version of Bush? Any real libertarian could have predicted that one for you, so who has better facts?
Run tell dat, homeboy!
AJ gets a little hot under the collar, and Ron Paul has failed to gain "mainstream acceptability," but an intelligent listener should be capable of sifting the truth from the propaganda to find the truth. It's a huge win if the establishment can brand everything that comes out of their mouths as "conspiracy theories" in order to discredit them. Check the facts, people.
If you have the courage please listen to Alex Jones for two weeks and see if you feel differently? We will gladly welcome you into the world of the enlightened. But, if you wish to continue to wallow in your own mediocrity and self-delusion so be it. Good luck!
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
P. S. Are you one of the sock puppets I have been hearing about?
Your correct, when a govt. has to micromanage everything in a market then the market is a goner. They are running around tryign to put out little brushfires and they can't see the whole forest is burning down around them.
Figures that fox would dis a vet. I expect nothing less from a Hollywierd wannabe.
Fox dis a Vet? Those guys don't let up on the salute to the soldiers thing. And thats great - I think it sucks that Fox is the best we can get, but shit, they sure suck ass from time to time - although they really have hotties with brains.
Off topic: All I want from Obama is a law requiring the tv volume of the commerical to match the volume of the show I'm watching. Fuck - Fox is the worst for that. Anyway, thats it. Theres my vote hanging like low hanging fruit.
Sad to see so much left versus right bullshit on these threads. Isn't it painfully obvious that both parties are equally corrupt and completely unprincipled? None of these fuckers care about the effects of their actions on the public at large. We are nothing but debt slaves feeding their machine. The politicians are bought and paid for by the banks and large corporations who exist by skimming a huge percentage of federal spending off the top. Neither party wants to limit the debt. It's all theater. Do you think Bernank, Geithner, Dimon, Moody's, the IMF and all the others are screaming that we need to raise the ceiling because they think it will benefit us or because they are really worried about America? Do you think Dimon is a liberal? The bankers who run the IMF? Did McConnell come out with his little plan to raise the ceiling because he's against it? Come on people, think a little. The left/right crap is a distraction designed to keep us fighting amongst ourselves while they plunder us. And I will remind everyone what they say about angry people. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBCnEp57YK8
Name someone on the left with a brain. They are all psychopaths.
Refers to the rest of your ramble.
Well reasoned response, Mynhair. I can't name one on either side of the aisle worthy of holding their office. By hey Mynhair, Rush is on. He's got your material for tomorrow. Go beat your head against the left/right wall while the top .1% laughs at your serf ass.
You are a case in point. So far behind reality. Rush was over 6 hours ago.
Please try and keep up. I know it hurts, but extend yourself.
Can't wait to hear what he had to say today in your next post.
I used to listen to Rush faithfully, but listening to Alex Jones at infowars.com I now know the truth. Rush is just a nice boy from Missouri who happens now to be a shill for the New World Order. I hope one day he and his buddy Dick Cheney repent!
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
I hope Dick takes Rush duck hunting.
PS, my side wants no debt limit increase. Why give away an immediate $1.6 trillion spending cut?
Dufus.
Your "side" wants the debt ceiling raised. But they know that their good little Rushies like you will keep voting for them so long as they wear a flag pin and tell you they are against more debt. Keep on ignoring what they do and focus on what they say. And I was wondering who actually buys this crap. I guess I have my answer.
Spot on, LTER....March '01 thru March '07, Repubes w Prez and both Houses....where was all this sudden Fiscal Responsibility then? Case closed.
Junked; unreadable format.
Remediation: Ditch the italics.
Exactly! Right vs. left, republicans vs. democracts is a "false paradigm". I listen to some talk shows and I get ill. Thank you for a great post!
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
Agreed Rand. Creating supposed differences between the pseudo-right and the pseudo-left is the grand ponzi scheme designed to divert the attention of the righteous masses. Pathos in the truest form.
'Zactly. We may have disagreements, but TBTB use those differences to drive a wedge between us. Look, people, left, right, whatever - we're all getting fucked by the oligarchy. We can bitch about solutions later. Right now it's about bringing down the existing oppressive system. United we stand, divided we fall. Get over the false dichotomy.
US Default Risk - yawn. Don't wait up. Not while the Fed has a printing press. The current farce is being played to tighten down the control of the the top 1%, and make sure their exquisite monetary reverie is not disturbed.
DEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRP
Shit was SO cra$h.
I have a feeling that this will turn out as it has for the last 50 years - get elected, keep the show running, get unelected or retire, get cushy lobbyist job or congressional pension. Seriously, what can we expect from these folks? They's da puppets on a string...
You are exactly right!!!!!!
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
Meanwhile, S & P joins the circle jerk...
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/07/14/sp-places-us-ratings-on-credit-watch-negative/
I voted for Bush and Obama. I think I'll take a bath now and slit my wrists.
S&P places U.S. sovereign ratings on watch for possible downgrade
Moved.
Big EUR/USD dive tonight.....back under 1.40 quickly GUARANTEED!!!!!!!!!!
yeah i am looking at that, S&P news mixed with EZ going down the toilet (Italy bond yields blowout as rest of PIIGS) sell on EUR and USD. Gold bugs rejoice
Regarding Murdock and the Hackerloo situation. This is an obvious takedown by TPTB. They resent his increasingly progressive stance with such speakers as Napolitano and Formerly Glenn Beck. They want to take him down.
S&P just dropped the neg on US debt. ZH you getting this?
Chaos now, Obama dares go all presidential mandate/order/constitution. Total Chaos. Trumped bernake, forget QE3 if the debt ceiling is increased. China will NOT allow USD slaughter
1in 2? I like those odds...stops on PMs just in case...lookin fo point F fuck it
yeah either way save haven buys. If Obama sinks the USD, Bernanke will have to sit tight, for a long time.
Agreed
Who wins with a quick defaut with all the trimings and then the fix?
Both parties (D/R). They can both say they went to mats for thier base, and then sheep get the gratification of seeing the make up cuddling between the two parties on the forst budget in 2.5 years.
But thats not how it is going to happen. The Pubs are going to play the Sun Tzu game. And they are going to win big. They will use the McConnel plan to let the president raise it on his own, without any conditions, but make him do it 3 times before 2012. The economy will still be in the crapper regardless of this "Crisis" the MSM is making it out to be.
Then the pubs take all three houses of the government back in a landslide.
EDIT: And this is what I think Obama secretly wants. I think he wants to be the Jimmy "I was right the whole time" Carter for the democratic base. A second term is going to be torture for him and he knows it.
the bears...
Shorts/puts on Asia indexes... They should get hammered by the neg rating watch on US
this picture of gary gensler overseeing the cftc "while rome burns" is pretty funny
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A1Btqf-0GEY/Th5sh9i9TOI/AAAAAAAARQc/Tpef8yrjE1k/s1600/GenslerCFTC.jpg
NBA lays off 11% of staff. That's a tell.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/15/sports/basketball/nba-lays-off-11-percent-of-staff.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto/p>
They also took bailout mula...
Too many balls in the air (not a Bawnee Fwank pun). When will the shit hit the fan people? These fuckers have more rabbits to pull outta hats than a coke addict has veins to stick.
Everytime its on the one yard line they come up with an illusion the crowd believes! AAAAHHHHHGGG!
So now the Republicans, who were happy to raise the debt ceiling 7 times for Bush's wars (and tax cuts), are holding the entire US economy to ransom when Obama is trying to deal with the financial clusterfuck left by Bush - and all to protect their uber-rich bankster buddies from paying one more cent in tax.
Still - at least we know the trickle-down philosophy of the last 25 years works. Which is why there are no more poor people in the US. Oh wait....
At the 11th hour they are going to give him the power to raise it without condition, 3 times before the election. And every time he does, and throughout the 2012 campaign, they are going to run the clip of him as a senator saying that "raising the debt ceiling is poor leadership"
These aren't the repubicunts you're looking for.
You must free yourself from the paradigm they have saddled you with. It soesn't matter who raises the debt ceiling, raising the ceiling has objective mathematical consequnces not tied to the bifactional ruling party kabuki theater.
It matters not who did what when before, only what happens now. Your petulance is not helpful.
They will raise it and keep raising it. If you know your going to default anyways take as much as the suckers will give.
''de fault is mine Boss''
''why do you say that Tatu?''
''because Boss I am too short''
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqeAh_IeSrQ&feature=related
Judgment day dunnnn dunnn dunnn...
For once I'm glad I live in fly-over country. Still, hopping a flight to south america might be better than waiting to see the cannibal holocaust come to fruition. Let's see what a night of lucid dreaming brings.
I'm starting to wonder if this is what Impending DOOM! actually feels like.
Be nice to know before it happens - it's never quite as interesting to look back when you're in the middle of the soup and say, "Yeah, that feeling I had 3-4 months ago? That was Impending DOOM! knocking on my window."
Nothing will happen folks. WAKE UP AMERICA! We will raise the debt ceiling and life goes on. YAWN!
The US Government cesspool is defecating from all orifice holes.
http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/07/wealth-gap-thursday-discrepancy-in.html
Tear down this Ponzi Scam.
http://www.historyplace.com/speeches/reagan-tear-down.htm
The table is set...the bears must feed...and I'm hungry as hell
The debt ceiling is an artifical construct. Every year it goes up and no one says a word. Then with Greece, Euro, bank foreclosures, fraudclosure, insolvency at the personal, state, and local level, the debt ceiling suddenly means something.
I smell bullshit. I wonder what is really going down behind the smokescreen.
the globalists will kick you out of the home you do not own, take away your foodstamps, and when you get sick, unable to afford medicaid. did you all wonder why there is a 1st world country and a third world country, but no 2nd world country? when 1st world are brought down to 3rd world status, the 2nd world would be born. we would all then bow to our new masters, that is the endgame.
Why INTF are any of you believing in this poorly scripted "S&P neg cred watch", "oooh, Repubs and/or Dems aren't backing down," bullshit?
This is a piss-poor Aaron Spelling like melodrama that is really a tragi-comedrama, because its a big show calculated to try to do as much as possible for each representative involved in the debate to load up on campaign material for commercials during the 2012 election cycle.
The debt ceiling will be raised at the last minute. There will be no tax increases. There will be some bullshit package of fake spending cuts.
The can will be kicked down the road for a few more years.
Expect a hyper-push of drama on the order of what we saw with Hank 'tanks in the street & martial law' Paulson in 2008, but don't be fooled twice in a row, or shame on you.
Lots of folks really enjoy self-stimulating with passion and rage about things they're totally uninvolved in. See the success of professional sports.
While I agree with you in principle about this all being political posturing, I'm not nearly as certain as you seem to be that the can will kicked for a few more years. I'm not sure there are a few more years LEFT. Things could literally seize up at any moment, and the government is really not "in control" of the situation.
They just want us to believe they are.
I wish the can could be kicked a few more years. 18 months is my outside guess to event horizon.
Word. I need some time to prep. 18 months would be great, but I'm not sure we've got that long.
until you see Ben Bernake..
in your back yard..
with an axe..
cutting down your tree's!
to print more paper..
we are NO where near the end.
"We the People" are to fucking ignorant or outright stupid to grasp the robbery that is on going.
Ignorance is Bliss!
Stupidity is Heaven!!
Lol! Best imagary in a while, if the Bernak come 's anywhere near my peach trees he's in for a fire-and-brimestone lecture, THEN a world of hurt.
I'm afraid you're right. I wish you were wrong - let this m-f'r BLOW. The suspense is killing me. . .
I'm sick of covering. I dont care what either side does. I don't care about politics. This is how I make a living. I'll watch the prices and if it looks right I'm shorting the shit out of this lie of a market.
Obama doesn't want debt ceiling agreement. He wants to step in at last minute declaring
emergency and raise ceiling without congress. It's a power grab and he will be seen as hero by
seniors and military families because without checks they would soon starve. All hail Emperor
Obama who saved us from cold-hearted Republican congress.
Which will be the case during the first time. That sentiment will wilt when he does it the second time this fall, where there is still no budget.
And under the current plan, he'll be doing the 3rd raise in the heat of the 2012 presidential campaign.
Very, Very risky. But it could play right into Ron Pauls hand, when he drops as a republican and goes for broke in his last campaign for public office ever as a 3rd party candidate.
Sounds a bit paranoid. Wasn't long ago a bunch of longhairs were posting the same kind of hysterical predictions about Dubya and Cheney marching protesters into FEMA camps--state of emergency, enemy non-combatants, etc.
Sure would be something to see, though.
DAYAM that'd be one uppity nigga!
All of this "bad news" and where is the market?
A percent or two off.
Think about it. The worst fucking thing to happen would be the U.S. defaulting?
And everybody is talking about it.
And where is the market.
A percent or two down!!!
gh
"Mr. Market" is smarter than everyone, I'm sure, so the world must be doing just fine.
Anyone rolling with a EUR short...Greece is down again, maybe now the partial default will be revealed to the market. Check you wires. No link. Sorry
Keep your powder dry...we'll have a chance to make some money on the bear side soon
100% Italy yields go up on an oversubscribed auction sends Europe down, US most probably will get a downgrade with UST's dumped on weak USD int payments, China black/gray money inflation wipe-out, Japan = finished.
wait for it...
Here's to tradition.
Central Banks' First-Half Gold Buying Surpasses 2010 Total
"Central banks have bought more gold in the first half of this year than in all of 2010 as a long-anticipated reversal in so-called "official sector" sales gathers pace, a gold group reported on
Thursday."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43763980?__source=RSS*tag*&par=RSS
If debt ceiling is raised you can kiss the US dollar goodbye.
If debt ceiling isn't raised you can kiss 401ks and pension funds goodbye.
Take your pick.
"The Times broke those numbers down by state and found there was quite a bit of variation in terms of how much of their personal incomes residents of various states derive from government payments. Conservative-leaning states like West Virginia (28 percent), Mississippi (26.2 percent), Kentucky (24.8 percent) and Arkansas (24.5 percent) lead the pack; among the dozen states that depend the most on federal payments for household income, only three – Maine, Michigan and New Mexico – are considered “blue.” "
Tea Party idiots are ruining their own party. :--)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/863864...
OMGosh who could possibly see THIS coming so fast darnit...
Will America default...This publicity stunt is sooo canned. The DC central planners who grew up on after school specials rehashed Fonzie jumping the shark, Marsha breaking her nose, JR being shot, etc,etc,etc,...Oh the suspense!
Aust cash rates cut called by aussie banks = China + Aust housing markets looking dire. Check crosses
and i just sold my 3mth AUD put
They allowed Wall Street to run rampant for ten years (88?), looked the other way, took bribes (oh sorry, 'campaign contributions'), then raped the American public to bail out the sons of serpent bankers and hedgies that gambled away bad money with good and got bonuses instead of a jail cell or good long hanging and drawn and quartering.
What more do you need to know?
Hedge funds are heavily invested
http://gmbpost.com/investment-news/charts-hedge-funds-are-back-and-ready...
charts
This is a ruse, and the market (i.e., CDS speculators) are going along with it.
The link between the debt ceiling and debt default is spurious at best. Default on some other so-called obligations (like the DOEd, EPA, etc.) would be a good thing.
That China supports a debt-ceiling raise means they've been schooled to go with the flow OR they simply want the U.S. to continue the dollar-devaluation march.