It
would appear that we are just a few hours away from some form of Irish
bailout. Portugal is a sideshow, but in worse shape than Ireland. So two
fixes are due by Friday. While not a total surprise this is happening
at lightening speed. I want to make an obvious but very important point:
A week ago spreads on Irish debt got pushed to levels where a bailout is
required. On paper they do not need a bailout this week. They have
minimal borrowing requirements and technically could just ride out the
storm. But Irish yields could not stay at 9% for long. It just adds to
the cost of the next guy in line. The next up in the domino chain is
Spain, behind that is (incredibly) Italy and should those tiles fall
even France becomes suspect.
That chain of events simply can’t be allowed to happen. I will make a prediction: Should Italy fall prey to the markets in a similar fashion as Ireland the dominoes will be falling on every continent.
Italy does not deserve a loss of confidence, but that is irrelevant.
Once money starts moving it is very hard to stop. I think every finance
minister is aware of this. But I see a big speed bump in the process
ahead. That bump is the USA.
When Greece went tapioca last May the EU responded with a $145B
(equivalent) support package. Of that, $40 came from the IMF. The US is
17% of the IMF but because there are dirt bags like Venezuela who don’t
pony up their share the US is on the hook for ~20% of the Greek deal.
Back in May this was sort of a ho-hummer. Some minor opposition:
"It is
simply unfair—as a matter of principle—to force American taxpayers to
use their hard-earned money to prop up failed policies in relatively
wealthy nations," Rep. Todd Tiahrt, a Kansas Republican.
A lot has changed since last May. The opposition to US involvement will
not be muted in November. Geithner and Obama are well aware of that
fact.
The talk is for a EUR ~100b deal for Ireland. Throw in Portugal and you
get EUR 120b or a total deal not so far from that for Greece
(total=$160b). The US share of the deal could come as high as $15b if
the IMF plays a similar role as in Greece.
This is a rounding error and should not be considered. But it will. The
IMF involvement in an Ireland/Portugal bailout will not go over so well
with the Tea Party set. But I fear it will get much worse. I
think there is a case for the Fed to get involved at some point. They
may be forced to open up swap lines to EU Central Banks as part of a
broader restructuring of EU debt. Consider this info from the CIA on
total external debt.
Note that Ireland has a mountain of external debt that is not Public
Sector debt. This is largely the domestic banks. There are cross border
assets on the books of these banks. Therefore on a net basis the
external debt is not as large as it appears. However in order to address
the Irish problem this mountain of assets has to be reshuffled. That
will prove to be far more difficult than a narrow bailout of the Irish
government bond market. For it to be accomplished in an orderly fashion
it will require that large amounts of liquidity be made available. In the past that has always brought the US Fed into the picture.
If a US role is required it will come at a great cost to the
Administration. If the Fed gets involved there will be hell to pay. If
the USA balks at a critical moment, the EU effort will fail in the
market eyes. At that point the market will go into full predator mode. A
lot is riding on what should not be such a big deal. But that is the
way of things.
good bank vs bad bank
Amen!
Timmah!
You beat me to it!
'Bout fucking time!
I'm over in Europe constantly (in Nuernberg on Saturday for 3 days). I'm so sick and tired of Eurotrash hammering me on the 'ills' of the US and how superior they are.
In summary: Fuck 'em.
Why are you there so often? Nuernberg has the world's largest toy fair. If you want superior quality and design you shop "made in europe" plain and simple.
The US financial elite fucked the world over and over again.
I'm making deals pretty much everywhere except the US. Nobody wants to deal with the US, nobody wants the US banking system or the US financial industrial military complex messing in their backyard.
Best you avoid Europe.
I actually like Nuernberg. The alt stadt is great. I'm there for a supplier conference with an automotive company there.
Best you stop the bullshit also; the entire world still wants to do business with the US. Like it or not we are still the big-bad-mother-fucker in the neighborhood.
I love the 'made in europe' is uber-quality though...that was great theater.
Take away the nuclear arsenal and you've got nothing.
Absolutely fucking nothing.
A turd pile of debt, a bunch of IOUs to the rest of the world that actually matters.
Unfortunately the rest of the world got sucked into the quagmire based on American lipservice and US bullies.
You have no idea what is going on behind the scenes, where the new alliances will be and that you cannot fight the rest of the world >alone<.
they do have things better. americans just scream liberal commie scum everytime there is a problem, are ignorant and wrap themselves up in the flag.
Oh fucking please...
They don't have things better at all. I find it odd that every ex-pat we have working in our US offices tries to find a way to stay. Furthermore, 90% of people that come to work in the US NEVER LEAVE.
My wife is a German immigrant and wouldn't go back unless she had a luger to her head. Get real.
I freely accept that the US isn't what it once was and isn't living to it's potential. But the EU is circling the drain faster than we are and has been for some time. Aside from how bad the US is, it's still better than the EU.
But if you feel great paying $140 for a pair of Levi's, more power to you.
Levis's cheaper in the US? But I agree with Jim Grant on "no more lowest prices everyday" at Walmart country. With cotton and commodity prices where they are and Ben's relentless printing making the greenback the most hated piece of toilet paper around, plus a useful nudge from time to time from US politicians (and the voters who voted for them), the US is creating a mirror image of its former colonial masters across the pond - into a high-cost socialist (ie socialising bankers toxic assets) economy hooked on bailouts. The key question is whether the US of A will become Britain or Spain.
Yep, 90% of people that come to work in the US NEVER LEAVE,
because they get so poor so fast, they cant even afford an air ticket to leave.
Lets not forget, the crisis startet in wallstreet and was created by wallstreet....
Europeans think differently, they save more... just look at the gas prizes. Higher Gas prizes make you waste less.
Dude, the Tiefgarage in my complex is full of SUVs and Porsches. Those who can afford it drive every bit as much as Americans.
If Congress' creatures Fannie and Freddie were "wallstreet" and the Fed is also "wallstreet' then yeah, the crisis "startet in wallstreet".
Riiigggghhhhtttt....They 'think differently' meaning they can't afford it and need to soothe the envy. This is the same as black guys 'preferring' ugly white chicks with huges asses.
Got it. Roger that. That's a BIG 10-4 good buddy.
By the way, I'm all in favor of burning Wall Street the ground. I wouldn't mind tossing in the douche bags in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Tokyo, Seoul, et al. If you want to start with Wall Street...hell, I'm behind you with the pitchfork.
there ARE many europeans who really like the US. there are also lots of americans who want to live in europe. the EU has its problems as well. but just to counter your $140 dollar levi example....while living in europe i occaissionally needed a doctor. in england it cost nothing, in austria a bit, but not much. maybe $40-50 for a doctor visit, $400 for an overnight at a hospital. i went to a skin doctor in the US recently to have something looked at. the woman said it was nothing after thirty seconds and charged me $300.
Well, it doesn't 'cost nothing' in England. The taxes are already taken at an absolutely exhorbitant rate along with the VAT.
I've been to London several times. Terrific place, honestly, if you make about a million pounds per year. I actually paid $24 for a cheeseburger at a sports bar...because the hot dog was $18. No shit. I'll never forget it.
As I said, I actually enjoyed some parts of England...to visit. I would not be interested in actually living there, mostly because of the cost of living.
Man, you went to the wrong sports bar ... you can get good burgers at quite a few places for £7 ... oh wait, I guess after Blackhawk Ben has his way that will still be around $24. Next time go to Tesco and get the £2 egg-salad sandwich.
I wish I could remember the name of it. I was there and the US NCAA basketball tourney was going on and I wanted to watch it. I was staying at the Holiday Inn at Oxford Circus (not cheap either). But, anyway, I went to a fairly big sports bar that also had a dance floor and plenty of sluts (I didn't complain about that being 28 at the time)....
But, no shit, it was 14 pounds for a cheeseburger. What was even worse was that it sucked. However, I did comb the crowd and find a fairly fugly butterhead that went back the hotel with me....
So, yea, I should really shut up about the hamburger, I guess. On second thought...I had a great time...cost me an arm and leg...but was fun nonetheless.
Quality of life is measured by many differing variables and unsurprisingly, may Yanks like living in Europe and many Europeans, in the US.
Nonetheless, it can become particularly irksome being treated as a demented, fascist, impolite, closed-minded, child-eating, porcine numb-skull whilst in Europe simply because I am an American.
I thus when there now, carry a blind person's cane, tin cup, monkey and organ with a book of J.P. Satre tucked under my arm, make gurgling sounds, weep intermittently, drool prodigiously and make loud hacking sounds mumbling something about ; "Ach, meine TBC."
Amazing how they treat one absolutely the same, regardless.
i am sure it is annoying. but america does need to stop patting itself on the back and waving the flag as so many things are declining. there is nothing wrong with saying..."things are shit. lets change it."
Wow, you really haven't been paying attention to things 'over the pond', I guess.
Everyone..EVERYONE is screaming 'things are shit, lets change them'.
I see you've had your German "experience" already.
Of couse, they bring extra bags to the US to pack full of best buy goodies, shoes, jeans, vitamins (and aspirin...), and all other items that they smuggle back. When they actually work here, they live in the largest home possible, drive Cadillacs with V8 engines, and 'live the dream' while they can.
I can get along with the Brits, Scots, Irish and the Scandinavians...but the rest of them...not so much.
I like a whole lot of what they do over there. I like the way that quality food is redibly available at a decent price, for example and they do a better job of taking their time to enjoy things. Moreover, their tax euro seems to go much further than ours. I've heard it said that once you factor in healthcare costs, private vs. public, that Euros don't pay much more in taxes. My general feeling is that their system is less of a kleptocracy than ours. Of course they don't waist trillions of dollars on defense spending that can't identify a missile launched 35 miles off of their third most important city, so that helps.
The total tax grab (including social taxes and VAT/Sales Taxes) from me in Europe is actually lower than it was in New York, and I get to drive 120mph to work every day.
Bullshit. Pure bullshit.
There will be some VAT owed on those smuggled goods.....................................
OH yea, they claim them for sure.
They...they...THEY...yeht...
Meaningless...
Well, I'm glad I'm not them even if I'm not overly happy being part of us. I'll still take the US given the alternatives.
Amen brother!!
Common Tyler...just one stock market prediction from you...Please !?
Go see 'Fight Club'... you'll get the idea.
oh, "the picks come to him" eh? Does that include "the boogers," nonclaim?
wtfe, hoss.
hey orly,
if its risk off what do think we go big and short AUD/JPY at current price 81.35?........stop at 82.90.
looks like a pair in delay........took a short on the DAX today for the same reason earlier today.....nice trade.
If we go short @ 81.35m how is it possible to stop @ 82.9?
I am already short the pair as the weekly charts look very promising for a downside move. My initial downside target is 76.82, which is halfway between two long-term Fibonacci levels. Pairs tend to make decisions in those areas.
It doesn't look to trade much lower than that, though, according to my charts but a re-assessment is due when the target is reached. The Awesome Oscillator and the center of gravity indicators are also signalling a snake-like action, where the pair may trade in large, banding ranges, perhaps for a year or two. You know that's easy money.
It seems that the Ozzie dollar and the Japanese yen may engage in a long-term pissing contest for dominion in Asia. I say, let them do it!
But, like I said, we'll know much more when the target is reached.
:D
Addo:
A much better bet is against the Pound Sterling and towards the Japanese yen. Something is about to happen with the GBP, as it has been quietly "flying under the radar" for some time. It is due. A glance a the H4 chart clearly shows that the pair has ridden the Bollinger Band all the way out, perhaps to exhaustion.
On the Daily chart also, it has has two breaking days away from its Bollinger band and is headed for its Bollinger band moving average @~ 130.16.
I think that this is a much better bet.
Be careful, though, because we are coming to the extremes of the pair, as massive Japanese strength has just crushed the Pound and we are asking it to retrace lower. The snap-back from 130.16 could be pretty severe as we cannot exert too much downside pressure without the thing blowing up in our faces. The GBPJPY trade requires nimble eyes.
:D
Stop at 82.90 against short is a very safe bet just above recent Daily/Weekly high - also a major longer term pivot point........unless you have a lot more patience than moi.
Sorry, don't see what you are looking at on the weekly chart...maybe i just think too Short term...85.50 weeky R, 80 S
Are you meaning stop loss or take profit? I can't think in terms of stop-loss; first, because it insults my character and second, I use quite a different method of trading than I would imagine most people do.
I only think in terms of target area, which is a subjective range, really, of when to take (profit...) the trade and wait for a reversal. It is the "take a little out of the middle" theory. Not only that, but I can afford to be much more patient (in normal trading times, that is...) because I use algorithms to do my dirty work for me. If I see that they have taken a bad trade, I can kill it, so I don't post any defined stop-losses.
Notice now, on the Daily chart, the AUDJPY pair has broken below the upper Bollinger Band and has had several days of trading below it. This would indicate that a move toward the Bollinger Band moving average (BBma...) is most likely. The point at which the BBma would be contacted is...ta-dah!...at the 80 support level you described.
_______________
Also some technical crap that may or may not interest you:
It is important to have a target range for profit and not just a get-out-of-Dodge ticket handy. It works both ways and, hopefully, mostly on the profit side.
:D
P.S. All these numbers are just buzzing in my head. What a couple of weeks! Fun but exhausting. So if my numbers seem contradictory or inconsistent, please let me know so I can clear up my position.
Hell, I don't even know what I said any more!
~/8
hey orly,
my worst enemy used to be overthinking all of my trades.....you called a top recently and we talked about being all in on an AUD/USD short, right.
so, your call was worth quite few hundred.......short Oil sunday night was better for about 600 large.
i thought about your commentary when i shorted the DAX today.......i closed for a nice day profit just as the press conference was about to start.........may have been too early or just right, who knows, but tomorrow is another trading day as long as you have capital.
trade price.........Joubert was an accomplished assasin........no religion, worked for both communists and capitalists, no ideology other than the accuracy of thought.
Thanks, Ro. I appreciate that.
Now, I am in the midst of over-thinking one of my own trades! I called a slight top in the USDJPY pair for a retrace before it took off higher. I wrote back on Bruce's post that the trade wasn't acting like I thought it would, so I said to get out with a thirty-three pip profit and see what happens.
Since then, it has just sat there. I can't figure it out, myself. Any thoughts on USDJPY would be appreciated.
Trying to figure it out can be emotionally and mentally taxing. BK has done a great job of pulling meaning from context.
Out of my long USD/JPY trade too early.........looking at that AUD/JPY as a lagging pair if risk is off which possibly means a large downside........it has not come off very much at all in the context of things European and POMO since the beginning of the week especially compared to other price drops.
If AUD/JPY maintains its rep as primary risk barometer then the narrow price range is telling
For price indicators ahead of the curve I tend to like to watch the DAX and Oil.........the Dax sold off ahead of other equity indexes and then led a rally.......the DAX was slower to come off the top so looked like a very easy short at noon today.
Oil was slow to catch up to the equity rally but once it broke 75 it was a very nice easy trade higher.......my take for OIL into the Sunday night open was the same. Technically it looked like a sell but behind the selling curve so a short with a tight stop looked not bad.......I have seen Oil do that before.
Another easy trade long was the Nikki on that authorization for the BOJ to buy whatever under the rising sun.
That is all water under the bridge and it is next as they say.
I am flat again as I look at 'no trade' as 1 of 3 trade options.
I still think Bruce is right; no one wants to go to the dark side. it is a long winding way down into depression and probably a lot harder climb back up.
Fear of the unknown thing but when we fall over the egdes of the flat earth we will probably not want to look back for the simple reason we usually find we are a lot stronger than we thought or knew.
Personally, I'd like to see a rationalization.
you are nice Orly,
love RoRo
ps.........closed the DAX short at 6664 just prior to the press confernce.......looked at the 4H GBP/JPY and looks shallow to me.......just my opinion........and has not broken the support uptrend line around 132.50........also the 8H has a buying wick from 131 (from Nov 12) which converges with a pivot S/R.
i like in and out, especially in this cheesehead thick kind of market
IF you have the time, the GBPJPY pair is a scalper short. I am not sure what you mean by shallow...
Keep in mind that this pair has been compressed down to nothing. Take a look at the Weekly chart and you can see the Average True Range is really quite small. Perhaps that is what you mean by shallow (or depth of volume...)? To me, that is the perfect time to scalp: when I know the general direction (down...) and a basic level to watch for significant reversals (the BBma...) on the H4.
Gotta be quick these days, though. Man! These past two days have been insane trading.
Swap lines are firmly in place, and as has been speculated previously here, are used as a key fulcrum by Blackhawk Ben to stop ECB from printing EUR.
Tyler,
It might be out of place here but what's you stand on the silver and gold market.
will it only go down from here? Or will it recover?
I am unfamiliar with your previous post on this matter however this is an interesting thought provided i understand it correctly. Needless to say "as an equity guy I say this in the name of informing the maximum number with all I have." There's never enough "information" as they say. "Ben as a currency trader." You seem to be inferring "he's trying to destoy the euro" via making "the bailout of Ireland if not impossible then prohibitively expensive." A "choice" as it were. "Not a very nice one" needless to say provided "he's in fact capable of doing it."
this is by design and will continue. http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/how-do-we-arrive-eve-our-collapse
You have hit the nail exactly on the head, george. The US is trying kill the euro because global economic expansion must take place, and this global economic expansion must expand the pool of dollar denominated debtors.
It is not personal, it's business. The ponzi scheme must expand or die...
EXACTLY.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/how-do-we-arrive-eve-our-collapse-1