This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
US Military Warns Of Oil Shortages By 2015 With Significant Economic And Political Impact, Especially On Weak Countries, India And China
A report issued by the US Joint Forces Command has a rather bleak view on US oil production, and on peak oil in general. In a foreword to the report issued by General James Mattis, he warns that "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day." Does this mean that oil, just like in the Bush administration, is about to become a "strategic interest", which coupled with the upcoming discoveries of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, would result in some additional geopoltical tensions particularly in the middle east? With nuclear tensions between Iran and Israel already at boiling hot levels, will Uncle Sam decide to make landfall in the Persian Gulg once again? More from the General: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India." Well, Mr. Chanos, there's your catalyst. We just hope that the negative carry of a five year short position is palatable to your LPs.
Some additional perspectives from The Guardian:
Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the debate on.
"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information is based on," he said.
"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"
The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. "One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest," it points out.
Full report by the Joint Operating Environment
h/t Mike
»
- 15282 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I have an uncle and a brother going at it still, full steam.I'll be going out to the farm next month, for the summer and fall.
Couldn't wait to get out of Appalachia, now I can't wait to get back!
Check out:http://www.polyfacefarms.com/
Joel Salatin is the guru and he has a book section there that is the best.
http://www.foxfire.org/thefoxfirebooks.aspx
These are good~
Yes, I have that collection of books and they are excellent....
thanks for the links gentlemen.
I'm plannin to just GTFO and move someplace warm that's an energy exporter and has hot babes.
Like Brazil or something.
Would just hate to own a compound here and be on the wrong end of a 30mm Apache cannon or else be downwind of an industrial accident.
Better to head somewhere people are used to walking around. Like Orlov says, the US has very far to fall whereas collapse to a 3rd worlder is like fallin out of a window on the ground floor.
While I agree on things getting ugly here, I would not want to be the different-skinned, heavily accented foreigner someplace when the world starts falling apart, my previously kryptonite passport becomes almost useless, and people the world over start seeing a certain large northern nation as the destroyer of the world.
But, enjoy the trip!
If I were looking in SA I would pay attention to Uruguay.
I hope you don't go from the pan into the fire.
Our farm is well hidden, down 3 miles of dirt roads in the middle of nowhere. Our first plan is just stay hidden, but we are defensively capable. Have also built strong community over the past year.We view urban survival dimly......
Forget the stone: http://countrylivinggrainmills.com/
Make sure to order the "Power Bar" and cancel your gym membership.
Another great by product of farming, no wasted energy spent in the gym.muscle produces useful work....and outside where its enjoyable...
Have one! Actually met Jack Jenkins too!
But, don't confuse "power bar" as making things easy. If you want to grind hard red winter wheat to a nice fine flour consistency then be prepared to do work! I'm still keeping my eyes open for a proper old exercise bike so I can hook one up: legs have a LOT more power than arms! What's kept me from doing so up until now is that I'm still holding out on making something that I can use a regular bike on and FACE the mill! Basically I'm looking for a general purpose bike platform.
<dup>
seperating the chaff
There's no cliff, just an inflection point. That's enough. The sign goes from positive to negative and suddenly you have two lines going in opposite directions. Not good.
Yeah...heh.
The best-case depletion rates in the peak analyses were assuming fairly "benign" decreases in production.
I used to tell Douchinger to google Cantarell if you want to see the apocalypse case. Went from the 2nd biggest oilfield in the world to now a minor producer in the span of just a few years. Down 80% in production now, had 34% YoY decline rates. Just horrible.
I have a world oil forecast showing shorter average time-to-peak and steeper decline rates with respect to recentness of discovery. All the recent finds peak sooner and decline much faster than the old wells. With the old surface fields, we could see the even 3% LA Basin-style decline assuming they haven't fluffed them up already with 2nd- and tertiary extraction techniques. Burgan, last I saw was 8% YoY...
But, either way, the more recent discoveries tended toward double-digit decline rates. It may be that we're about to fall off of a production cliff. If so, world war will be at hand.
Puplava's been warning of this for a while. There's been two reputable studies recently, one from Kuwait, and one from UK (including Richard Branson) that backs it up. This is just the latest bit of info. 2014-2015 seems to be consensus for when it should get interesting.
Oil is money.
Far more productive than gold.
Don't last as long though!
Sunlight is money; you grow things for free and sell them.
Oil is stored sunlight. Just as useful too, but you get one shot at it then it is gone.
And there you have it. Now riddle me this; how many people can the planet sustain on regular sunlight alone? Hint: most of the people who have ever lived on earth are alive right now, due to oil. They are oil-flesh.
Tune in next week for the stunning answer!
The dream was to replace with subatomic energy but 50 years of tinkering with fission and fusion hasn't gotten us there yet. There will be intense efforts to find alt.energy, meanwhile, buy a small farm and make friends with the local mob.
or pull out the OUIJA board and conjure up the ghost of tesla
Finding a replacement for oil will be the greatest challenge ever faced by humankind. Ain't going to happen. Oil will have to procurred by force...
Make friends with the local mob?
Or be the local mob?
so get you a couple of 10,000 gal trucks,,
sell some off and on.. but you cant drink/eat oil lol
or a small stash of gold ditto ,,,
Actually, oil is work. And work represents power/control. Money is just a portable note having a claim against future work.
Could this be the beginning of some good old fasioned honesty ?
Meh, the Pentagon has issued reports on peak oil as early as '05. It is the MSM that chooses to ignore them.
Absolutely, yes.
In service of setting the right expectations. They want you to understand up front why they will need to triple the size of the military, and extend US reach onto every continent.
We will all be GI Joe before this is over.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg&feature=PlayList&p=C1B06538A32767DF&playnext_from=PL&index=132
$200 a Barrel.... tree hugging? naaaaaaaaaaaa.....
- good link JW.
Thanks Rusty Shorts !
Here is another that draws attention to the problem thru the Government approved, don't spook the sheepeople approach.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaF-fq2Zn7I&feature=PlayList&p=C1B06538A32767DF&playnext_from=PL&index=161
As well... this was part of a post here that Tyler wrote... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwNgNyiXPLk&feature=PlayList&p=C1B06538A32767DF&playnext_from=PL&index=160
Bottom line... no real recovery until such time that energy costs can be contained... Global trade stops Global war from getting started. But until affordable oil can be used for transportation, primarily... instead of for everything we all will be sucking wind. IMHO.. I should note Rusty I have been wrong before and very well may be wrong this go round.
My best to You and Yours Rusty, JW
Financial markets are gamed to prevent price discovery; oil markets are designed to prevent reserve discovery.
+
This is a well-documented reality. Everyone needs to understand that stated reserves are king, and the only thing worth lying about.
If you all knew how bad this is getting and how short the runway is you'd probably kill yourself.
My you're cheerful. While I'm in agreement with your other comments, is there something additional you know and would like to share?
Supply is getting ready to fall off a cliff. All these water and nitrogen injected fields produce at max level and then they don't . Very steep production falloffs. Ghawar is on edge.
There has been an exponential increase in the number of oil wells in the last 10 years to keep production roughly flat. That should scare the shit out of everyone.....
Heh. It's not my fault; Tyler had to go and remind me that we're doomed by reporting that the Pentagon now gets it.
We're in a fix. The past 100 years of growth were a total mirage. Maybe 150 years. Without abundant oil, we turn back the clock. Nothing that was built in the last 100 years will endure another 10 years without abundant sources of cheap oil to fuel it. Not mechanized agriculture, not motoring and "warehouses-on-wheels", not cheap imports from China, not communications, not jack. And I'm not the only one saying.
Total. Mirage.
100 years of dreaming does not a reality make.
Only if the YoY declines are severe.
But, yes, the inflection of the energy supply growth curve means a retracement of the entirety of the Industrial Revolution.
This is the biggest obstacle facing mankind, yet our last Presidential Election seemed to suggest that people thought that racism was.
The issue now is that our model of growth must change to one of contraction. This DOES NOT MEAN that everything that has run on oil can't keep running. It just means that there will be less things consuming less oil. It needn't be the end of the world. People walk everywhere else and get by on much less.
It ain't Indians that need to change; it's we who do.
Oil will STILL be abundant. 80mbpd or 70 is nothing to sneeze at. Supply just won't grow. Instead of more people driving more cars more miles there will be less. Kind of like reverting down the supply curve back towards the 50s.
World gets bigger, shit gets smaller. But hell man they have mobile internet in Afghanistan; you'll still be able to surf teh interwebs for pron
Good post. I agree that things could continue in a truly modern and nice fashion. The emphasis on "could." From the point at which peak oil effects become clear, it's all a matter of political and social forces. Unfortunately I think those forces will magnify the problem immensely and cause a problem to become a disaster.
Another thing to point out to people is that of reversing economies of scale. It should be clear to everyone now that global economic contraction is upon us (and, given that there really cannot be any growth, will likely be The direction for quite some time). And with contraction comes a deleveraging of economies of scale. In a world that's been used to running up debts on buying tons of cheap goods, think of what happens when the prices of these goods shoot up due to loss/decline of economies of scale. It will create less consumers, which in turn creates a further reduction in the number of units of goods sold, which further reduces economies of scale...
We've been huddling around a warm fire that has been maintained by constant fanning. The energy to fan the fire is running out. We'll soon learn how warming that fire has been.
Yes...google "Cantarell" for the apocalypse case.
Man, do you know how many times I've been banned from TF for trying to get people to accept this? LOL.
If I were going to stockpile something right now it'd be gold, not because it's realer, but because you can walk with it.
The US's posture into the face of PO will not be pretty and I'm not sure you really want to be here in any capacity during it.
ALL depends upon the steepness of the production decline. I maintain that we hit the C&C peak in 2005 for all time. If we collapse like Cantarell, the lights are literally going to go the fuck out.
The biggest issue is the opacity with respect to production from Aramco. How much water, nitrogen, and everything else have they been jacking into Ghawar?
...and a sailboat.
You can suit yourself or shoot yourself. It just makes for a different type of party or gathering.
The only way we are close to not being able to meet oil demand is: 1) We continue to ramp up worldwide usage (sounds plausible) 2) We continue our butt-stupid policy of not looking for oil (that's definite with the retarded gov't we have now--despite "plans" to open the OCS to drilling, that will never be allowed to happen.
If we would build nucs as fast as we can and plan on using hydrogen for vehicle fuel (only possible with enormous amounts of excess electricity--something the green idiots never mention when they talk about hydrogen cars) in 10-20 years we could have a hope of getting through the eventual lack of cheap oil. (We will have oil, it will just be expensive, which will help limit demand).
We have a gov't with a death wish (not for itself--for a free society) and a press and academic world full of human- hating socialists (how they doesn't cause cognitive dissonance is beyond me).
We will have adequate energy if we can get some grown-ups in charge of our country--don't ask me how to do that--I can't name enough sensible politicians to make up a basketball team, much less a gov't.
We are not doomed by free enterprise, modern living standards, or shortages of any commodity. We are doomed by our propensity to elect idiots and scoundrels to high office (often idiotic scoundrels).
Don't blame fate for our problems. The fault is not in our stars, but in ourselves (did someone already say that?)
"2) We continue our butt-stupid policy of not looking for oil"
LOL, trust me, every square inch of the planet has been surveyed many times over with a fine tooth comb, there is no major oil fields left to be discovered.
Go over to your gas stove in the kitchen and have an epiphany. You could run it on kerosene, but would you like to? We have a hundred years of domestic natural gas and more is discovered each month. Crude oil is so over. So I'm not an Arab sheikh....that's their problemo.
We have a hundred years of domestic natural gas and more is discovered each month.
That's like saying "I have a hundred years worth of money." It's missing a HUGE part of the equation!
It's also suggesting that because there's so much of it that we can therefore use MORE of it. Using MORE, faster, means that it WON'T last 100 years. You either use the same as we are today (keep at the same rate, in which case the longevity would be as suggested [hypothetically, as I do not know how much NG we have and what our current consumption is like]), use less (it would last longer), or use more (in which case it would run out sooner).
People, when qualifying things please be sure to state/project growth rates. Without stating growth rates the amount of something is pretty meaningless. State: how much exists (to the best of our knowledge) and current and future (projected) consumption rates.
I currently have enough money to last the rest of my life if: A) I die tomorrow; B) I don't spend any of it. The rate of usage makes all the difference.
Academics use past statistics to predict the future; real life is always changing going forward. My bet is you will die with the bottom 50% of your money buried like Pompeii.
Having worked with straight hydrogen in an industrial setting, I would move out of town if anyone showed up next door with a hydrogen-fueled car. The stuff is dangerous enough when it's just engineers using it in a factory. I saw where a 600 lb. retort lid was blasted 60 feet in the air by a minor handling mistake in the plant I worked in. Just imagine 25 million hydrogen tanks in the hands of automotive maroons. A gasoline leak is a fire hazard. A minor hydrogen leak is a potential FAE bomb. Ever see where a house exploded from a natural gas leak? I have. Pieces landed 300 yards away. Hydrogen is even more energetic. Natural gas at a house is under 2 to 3 PSI pressure. Hydrogen has to be stored under hundreds of PSI to get enough of it in a tank to do any good. Our storage tanks had to be located outside, so any leak would dissipate. Imagine a car with a leak in a garage....... No, the only safe way to store hydrogen safely is in a liquid compound. Like, say, gasoline?
+1000. we gave up on hydrogen powered vehicles in ca, finally. gave up on biodiesel too
Hydrogen is just another kind of battery technology, one that you "top off" rather than "charge up". This distinction is important, but the issue then is where do you get the real energy? The answer is usually ... coal.
And so hydrogen is a way to burn coal in your private electric vehicle. Which kinda sucks, if you've been following the news on coal mining and transportation at all. Killing miners and fouling the GBR just to keep 5 ton hybrid F-150s on the road moving lard asses to and from McDonalds is ... well how can I put this ... freaking stupid.
Hydrogen is done. Stick a fork in it.
It was done at Lakehurst, NJ in 1937 with the last flight of the Hindenberg. There is no other gas happening right now but natty. No time to waste on idle chatter and specious respeculations on water-powered cars.
why biodiesel?
Banned in Bezerkeley due to its high pollution
HA
Not to quibble, but last I checked hydrogen's range of explosive concentrations in air was very narrow, in comparison to say propane vapor which is explosive in the range of (by memory) around 10% to 90% concentration. And yet propane-fueled houses and businesses only blow up occasionally, not dozens every day.
This all kinda begs the real question, which is where do you get useful quantities of hydrogen. (Hint: with existing technology, you probably don't.)
From the hydrogen service station, of course!
I have a PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell, which delivers me hydrogen at roughly 90 percent efficiency. But these are expensive to buy and expensive to maintain, not practical.
My PEM is just for experimental purposes...
Electrolysis is only (roughly) 50 percent efficient
50% efficiency would be fine if you had a sufficient source of electricity.
A lot of alternative technologies would work great if we only needed to supply say 10% of current usage. You ponder the options.
Seems like you, me, and Cougar should get together some time.
Absolutely, on all three counts...
Feel free to include me; we'll pool our gold and form our own bank and just leech of of everyone LOLz
I have talked with similar-thinking friends and we marvel at the chance we squandered during the 90s to basically put wind power and PBMR and solar panels everywhere with the "money" we spent. We could have financed that through inflation and become a net electricity exporter, cracked H2 with it.
There were so many opportunities in technology to improve efficiency, lighter cars, alcohol and gasoline fuel cells, diamond-based semiconductors, etc., and we fucking did what? .com and housing bubble and wars and SUVs.
Instead of being the ant, we became full-on blinged-out ghetto grasshoppers as a society. The good times rolled hard with pimped rims. Granite countertops. Giant prefabbed houses. Longer commutes. More more more more.
Head on into the wall.
We should have been prepping for this thing for the past 40 years. Obviously, massive oil profits would not allow this. The next few years are going to be interesting, all hinging on Ghawar...
You are included!
But what would you bet your left nut on that works?
Millions of Hydrogen vehicles are NOT on the road worldwide. Hydrogen is clearly a kerfluffle, a distraction. CNG vehicles are huge in China where they are focused on beating us to the diminishing reserves of crude, but we're snowed in mentally by our crude oil paymasters to the arab kickbackers. All manner of chatter to take the eye off the immediately workable CNG ball.
The other big issue with hydrogen is, as somewhat eluded to, storage. But... hydrogen cannot be placed in any old container. Being the lightest (read "smallest") element it tends to escape, even the best containers (include pipelines in this too). Want to store it for a long time? Nope! It bleeds off at a fairly big clip.
And as Merlin points out, it has to be stored under a lot of pressure (as do all gases) to make storage and transfer work.
Which also means it can't be piped, it has to be trucked or railroaded every where. Same for ethanol
Another big disadvantage
Oh hi Sarah Palin. How goes the exploration of the dark side of the human spirit?
Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I was out with friends. I won't reply to your snarky comment but just FYI (if you care).
Hydrogen is not very safe to use as a compressed gas (I have worked with it but it you wouldn't want to do that with a mass market vehicle. However, I don't think anyone anticipates using it that way. DOE has interesting articles on Hydrogen storage.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/storage/materials.html
Challenging but we must have a non-hydrocarbon portable source of energy (batteries can't do it now, probably impossible to ever improve enough for economical use).
Yes, electrolysis is energy inefficient. That's why we need lots of nucs to produce lots of electricity. May not be possible but we have to have some solution (unless you want to go back to 19th century lifestyle).
We need oil until we find technological solutions to the problem of a relatively clean portable store of energy. That's why we must drill everywhere there is oil to get off the Middle East leash.
As to all the oil already found. Brazil just made a huge discovery. (We're loaning them the money to develop it) Go figure.
Peak oil is a problem only if we continue our stupid energy policy.
Build lots of nucs, drill lots of wells or condemn your children to the new Dark Ages.
Nucs are a minimum of 12 years out...
Ah...Brazil...lol.
You know, maybe it's time you started listening to the experts about oil instead of talking?
The first thing you ought to do is to stop looking at potentially recoverable reserves or oil-in-place and look at the RATE OF PRODUCTION expected from those reserves. Because this latter metric is the ONLY ONE that matters.
Canada has as much reserves in-place as Saudi Arabia did...yet these reserves cannot be produced at anywhere near the same rate as KSA's could. Even if we foul every freshwater source west of the Rockies, the tarsands are at MOST 4-5mbpd, or LESS than what Ghawar alone produces.
The Tupi field in Brazil is 8-10Bbbl...yet it will only produce at most 500kbpd at peak. Carioca has ostensibly 20-30Bbbl but at present not a SINGLE one can be produced. The field is under miles of ocean, miles of salt, and miles of rock. At what rate do you honestly expect these barrels to be mobilized to the surface and at what EROI?
The oil problem is NOT ABOUT RESERVES. Hell, assume reserves are INFINITE. It's about rate of production and nothing else.
Aslo, not enough Nat Gas in north america to process the tar sands in canada. What a waste of NG .....
Totally agree, and I hold COSWF!
Alberta was going to build a nuke plant for that, but of course things get bogged down. So COS bought themselves a gas company that had 50 years worth of COS's production needs to burn NG (which is a freakin more valuable resource than oil) to make synthetic WTC. Nuts.
Burn our food, burn our precious resources to support transportation needs in wasteful vehicles. BRILLIANT!
Hey, has anyone tried selling ice to the Eskimos?
You got it! How stupid are we?
The transportation paradigm provided means to control the masses. Control food and you control the population (Kissenger once stated this).
There is not enough natty to melt a granite skyscraper in NYC but so what? Why would you use a motive fuel to release a another one which needs even more energy and pollutants to make useable. Spend dollars to make pennies. You are not serious. Be advised.
Build lots of nucs, drill lots of wells or condemn your children to the new Dark Ages.
You can see into the future? I'm classed as a "doomer," but I'll tell you this, I don't believe that we're headed back to the Dark Ages; perhaps metaphorically, but not civily. Such comments only help steer the hordes to some desired direction, and in the case of nukes, a very bad one.
It's been proven that people can survive in pre-oil days. What has NOT been proven is whether the planet filled with nuclear waste can support humans. It's been what, almost 60 years and we STILL haven't figured out how to manage nuclear waste such that it won't end up turning our children into mutants, if not outright killed?
Besides, an overabundance of (supposedly) cheap fuel just means that we use it to do more work, work which ALWAYS means the use of natural resources.
If we would reprocess our nuclear fuel, there would be very little waste and what remains would only be hot for a couple hundred years. Lots of disinformation on nuclear waste.
But the only reason we have really hot waste sitting around in swimming pools for twenty years is because Carter made it illegal to reprocess, due to the proliferation issue with plutonium, which IMHO, was a genie let out of the bottle a long time ago. I consider not reprocessing nuclear waste to be one of out most wasteful practices.
The amount of waste created, for the total energy needs of a family of four, for twenty years, fits in a pill bottle. (if reprocessed )
compare that to a mountain of coal ash, which is loaded with uranium, thorium, etc
Nuclear won't power cars.
50% or so of the US's oil consumption is transportation.
As far as "looking for oil," if we eliminated all transportation tomorrow, the US would still require importation of oil. We consume *that much* of the stuff.
Nuclear cannot power agriculture, either. The real issue is that our way of life is incompatible with a climate of increasing scarcity. Yet all policies are being pursued which actively ignore that.
This is not the time to be trying to restart "growth." It's time to prepare for contraction. That means the elites have to stop the rent-seeking and accumulation of wealth because the overall pie is shrinking that everyone needs/wants to eat from.
Tar sands, nuclear, wind, solar, batteries, hydrogen, ethanol, biodiesel, all weak and worthless to get big torque happening in real time.
i thought we took over Iraq so we can go drink Iran's milkshake???
- our glorious past, and our sad future;
http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/2010/04/moonbattery-app.html
We have more natural gas reserves( more than any nation on the globe, yet to be found), and we have MASSIVE crude reserves on the mainland, that the Eco_Nazi's will not let us drill for.
IF they did, we would be 100% totally self sufficient with our own crude for well over a 100yrs, w/out any offshore drilling.
What does the FEARLESS leader do?..........calls for drilling off the Atlantic seaboard, where he knows there is dick squat nada.
Meanwhile we lease drilling rights to Russia in the Gulf of Mexico(known reserves) .
PLUS, we give 8 Billion dollars to South America for drilling, but the crude is not for US.
What's wrong with this picture?.
Bottom line, $6.00+ a gal fuel, and Carbon Taxes passed.....and Al Gwhore, stays happy as "O" gives in to Soros and crew.
Even though the game stays close to the same, Nov cannot get here soon enough, we need a breather.
Oh, and the article about the developing POOR nations, er'??, China?.
Hell, they are buying most of Africa while Nero fiddles.
Excuse me but it seems you have some foam on your mouth there.
Natural gas is the short term fix, not a cure all. It would help supplement the diminishing oil. Neccessity is the mother of invention. The best thing that can happen is to run out of oil otherwise we will never come up with a substitute.
natural gas for motion and torque and solar for heating, and repurposing non-garbage and recycling..take advantage with what we already have seize the time and cease the whine.
No substitute will be found for oil in a reasonable amount of time.Biggest problem ever faced by humankind. 40 years ago we really needed to apply intelligent design to our cities and systems to minimize, greatly, to and fro.
Unfortunately, profits got in the way of that..
You can also thank GM and Ford in their 1940s/50s incarnations for some of that city design.
Absolutely, but we can mitigate the damage in theory anyway.
Duh, we already did run out of oil at the prices our corrupted by policial nonsense economy can afford. We need perpetual war in the crude oil equation if you see the big picture.
Dude...there is NO fucking possible way we could be self-sufficient in oil. NONE.
If you believe otherwise, you're an idiot.
The US consumes 18mbpd of oil, we produce 6.
There is NO FIELD ON THE PLANET that can produce 10mbpd. And there's NONE in the US that ever did. Even the N. Slope topped out around 2mbpd. This was the biggest find in the US since W. Texas.
You're just utterly insanely out of touch with reality if you honestly believe the US can be self-sufficient with respect to crude oil. We peaked in 1970, dude. Look it up.
Clearly you are making perfect the enemy of the good. Each substitution for CNG in the margin going forward, is one more breath of freedom from yhr Arab paymasters at every gasoline from crude pump.
IF they did, we would be 100% totally self sufficient with our own crude for well over a 100yrs, w/out any offshore drilling.
So, you're advocating that we drop imports and instead consume only what we have? Brilliant. Well, until you do the math and discover that in order to make up the import gap AND provide the ever-necessary growth in consumption element that it could NEVER still last 100 years!
Come on people! Include current and projected rates of consumption when spouting off numbers like this.
Typical military propaganda designed to create fear and paranoia among the masses like the Sadam weapons of mass destruction report.
You'd be spot-on if what they were saying was not instead true.
Sometimes, you really are fucked up like a duck. If they were spouting off about "domestic terrorististas" I'd call bullshit on them too. But why make up obvious lies when there is a great and wicked truth you can stampede the prols with?
Peak oil; it's gonna eat you, mo'fo.
Please don't quote me; buy natural gas???
buy just what you need.... make something of your own instead of collecting other people's dead stuff.
What kind of gas mileage does those f-15's get.
Also what kind of gas milege does an armored humvee get and how much energy does it take to replace the bulletproof glass everytime it goes someplace and gets a bullet pumped in it. That might save a bit of energy.
How much of our oil consumption is used by the military? That would be interesting to know.
The US military uses more energy than any other entity (business etc.).
In the document (which I'm still reading), there seems to almost be this sense of panic, in that they realize that they are f*cked two ways: 1) economic contraction; 2) loss of energy. I don't believe that this is a put-on in any sense of the imagination.
This is old (2005) - and i suspect a lot of work has been done since this time.
http://www.onepetro.org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=SPE-94986-MS&so...
What has the DOE been doing all this time? i suspect they've been busy figuring out how to economically harvest the deep unconventional crudes, tars, and bitumens. There are 15X heavy oil reserves compared to "conventional" (light, easy to pump oil). And most of that is in North America. That's why you're seeing BP and CNOOC moving teams to Alberta. Its not just to bulldoze the shallow tar sands - which is wasteful and ecologically destructive.
That would be a game changer. If an oil company figures out how to get out the deep stuff using in-situ (down hole) technology, then the price of oil goes down to the break even production prices + some premium for technology application. Instantly, there would be another 300 years of supply.
Instantly, there would be another 300 years of supply.
At what rate of extraction?
Ugh! This is getting tiring...
If an oil company figures out how to avoid the laws of physics and thermodynamics they will set us free....please re-read the Brothers Grimm's tales.
A simpler, less materialistic life style would go a long way towards fixing this.
But advertisers make buku dollars convincing us we need bullshit.
And the unthinking public falls for it.
If we had a thinking public, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Buy a wood stove to heat the house !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! green wood $150 a cord !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Air inversion layers cloud your horizon with some not quite waiting for their wood from the imaginary ubiquitous forests to dry properly.
Some great books I am reading. "The Partys Over" and "The Long Emergency".
The U.S. really has some dumb luck. We are over in the middle east introducing democracy and freedom while at the same time protecting our freedom here in the U.S. by being there. On top of that we are protecting the Saudi royal family from being overthrown because they are such a democratic bunch. Then the cherry on top, they just happen to have oil and lots of it.
We're only protecting the royal Saudi family because of oil. Same reason why we've proped up dictators the world-over: they're more convenient to deal with for negotiating; having to deal with entire populations just doesn't work (like Iran).
Spreading OUR freedom (for us) all over the globe. And dag nabbit, others should be thankful that we're doing so!
I was being highly sarcastic.
Let me write that headline:
"US Military Warns of Oil Shortages Just Days After Iraq Civilian Slaughters Exposed"
General James Mattis of the US Joint Forces Command down played the timing of the peak oil report with the US military role in the aftermath of civilian atrocities in both the Iraq and Afghan-i-nam theaters.
General Mattis dismissed war crimes investigations as a concern and reminded Americans that US Joint Forces Command has a rather bleak view on US oil production, and on peak oil in general.
Mattis further insisted that American "civilian slobs" need to thank the military for invading Iraq for oil, occupying Afghan-i-nam for 8 years and far into the forceable future to ensure new US corporate energy pipelines.
According to Mattis:
"You American civilian slobs need to get behind the US military $1 trillion a year budgets, 700 over seas bases and permanent occupation of the middle east because by 2015... there is going to be a whole lotta sniveling state side when you slobs can't fill up your SUV's."
In further news, the IRS stated today that Treasury Secretary TIm Geithner still owes over $...
there's no shortage of answers out there, ptb has done a great job of memory holing them til now.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/03/31/technology-to-reduce-dependence-...
gas from water anyone? a stupid idea in light of free energy sources but doable:
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Viktor_Schauberger:_Petrol_(Gasoline)_from_Water
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health/us-navy-chemists-try-to-turn-...
oil from any carbon based substance, start excavating all those landfills:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
http://www.ultracleanfuels.com/
actually we only really need oil as a lubricant as there are much more abundant and cleaner supplies of free energy.
http://keelynet.com/energy/teslcar.htm
http://www.free-energy.ws/implosion.html
http://pesn.com/2010/03/07/9501623_Bearden_on_electrial_engineering_mode...
http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/030110.htm
ever get the feeling you've been lied to?
Sorry, but all that is crap. Again we are back to basic math. 20 million gallons of gas used in california in ONE day. density of gasoline ==
33kwh/gallon. you do the math....
We are losing how many Millions of barrels in prodcution?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
Growth rate of consuption?
='s we are all shit out of luck.
I should have stated that the energy density of gasoline = 33kwh/gallon
dupe
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=Utility+Output+Slows+the+Increase+in+Industrial+Production%E2%80%8F&aq=&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&fp=95b809f9b4e151b1
The Tail that Wags the DogAlthough it comprises less than 12 percent of total output, utility production has been the X-factor in recent reports on industrial production. An exceptionally cold winter followed by an unseasonably warm spring resulted in a 6.4 percent decline in utilities output, the sharpest drop in more than four years. Manufacturing output was strong, increasing 0.9 percent for the month as the manufacturing recovery continues.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/us-utility-output-slows-the-increase-0415/2010-04-15.html
Wow, that's a lot of posts...
Nobody seems to get the point: why does the US Army issue it's own warning, despite the fact that there have been many, many warnings before, by prestigious names ?
It's pretty clear, this scenario is somewhat the "medium case" of their research. And they have the best intel available on the Saudis and the possibilities of Iraq. They almost dismiss these entities ...
People such as Jeffrey Brown, Sam Foucher or Mike Emmel have been constantly working on the "worst case" as well. The worst case STARTS NOW.
The warning is pretty clear: brace for impact. BAU is as dead as can be. If the decline starts now, be prepared for some drastic actions on a worldwide scale.
Good Luck to all.