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US Must Create 245,500 Jobs A Month To Return To December 2007 Employment Rate By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Looking at today's NFP report which beat consensus by 26K jobs, it is easy to lose perspective of the big picture. Whch is as follows: in order to regain the millions of jobs lost since the start of the Depression in December 2007, and return to the same unemployment rate when factoring in the natural growth rate of the labor force of 90,000 per month (not our estimate: CBO's), the economy will need to create 245,500 jobs each and every month by the end of Obama's tentative second term in November 2016.

 


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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"By End Of Obama Second Term"

I just spit coffee all over my screen.  Nice comedic relief!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment connda
connda's picture

I just choked on my cookie and passed milk through my nose.  That was funny!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Change you can believe in!

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Chains you can believe in!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment American Dissident
American Dissident's picture

APRIL FOOLS!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I just felt a wave of nausea.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment stoverny
stoverny's picture

what comic relief?  Obama wins against almost any of the losers the Republicans can toss out against him. 

 

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:26 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Personally I liked the Depression beginning in December 2007 remark, I agree too.

Obama's second term...? That shit makes me cry at night all over my pillows.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:05 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

me 2 :/

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

7.5% unemployment will get Obummer re-elected, bitchez!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Yep - the political appointees at the Ministry of Truth will print whatever number they think they need to print in order to get 4-more years at the public teat.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

With data manipulation they will get the number there. Reality, however, will tell a different story. The government will lose credibility (assuming there was any begin with)

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[With data manipulation they will get the number there. Reality, however, will tell a different story. The government will lose credibility...]---Ray1968

And with it, credibility in the currency. Hallmark of hyperinflation. History is predictable.

They will undo themselves; they cannot help themselves.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

they cannot help themselves.

Agreed. The die is cast. We no longer have men of character nor do we have a society that is willing to do what it takes to fix the problem. The pain will be too great for voluntary correction, so they will wait until death is upon us.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

8.8%

 

WTF!?!

 

Just saw an interview on Bloomberg with Betty Liu and some smug White House lackey who said, and I'm paraphrasing, "Of course, this doesn't count the people who dropped out of the workforce and are not looking for employment, but should they start looking again, we will count them."

 

Brilliant.  Fucking brilliant.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

The lapdog Media, Socialist Labor Unions, and entitlement-brokerage non-profits WILL subvert our 2012 elections anyway.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

Was 2010 the last free and fair election?

Will 2012 be the last free and fair election?

Am wondering.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Don't forget the disputed results and the 51% wins for Bush on 2000 and 2004. Don't kid yourself, I don't think we've had a relatively "fair" one since maybe the 1980s?

This just came out about 2010:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/153079-gop-says-5000-non-citizens-voti...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Yes we can do that! At least that is what will be reported.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

The only thing the US can create are SPY trading units and fiat currency

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

please draw chart showing what year US FEDERAL BUDGET deficit is going to be zero? cant wait to see one

more jobs. more income, more taxes, deficit is less..
alx

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

To save you the suspense my calculations have that occuring around the year technology has advanced to the level that Ted Williams head is reaninamated and affixed to a cyborg. As a matter of fact I am hearing we will celebrate this occasion and victory for Keynesian policies by having Ted personally air drop the last dollar owed to China as he cruises past them on his hoverboard. Im just sad I will not be around to see this day.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

What's the number of jobs that have to be created monthly once you subtract-out the totally made-up "birth-death adjustment" to NFP, I wonder.  Probably rather well north of 300K.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

We're gonna need a bigger ink cartridge.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

It's amazing how quickly the zeitgeist here has changed from QE3 is inevitable to QE3 is dead. I guess QE Lite continues. I guess we will see whether this market can stay levitated without the prospect of more overt moneyprinting by Ben. I still think that Faber is right : "The moneyprinter will print" but how is the question.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

successive rounds of publicly disclosed austerity and stimulus...  while, probably, at the same time running background stimulus/guarantees/swaps...  the only question is whether the economy implodes as planned or explodes from too much explosive charge.  Either way, it ends in a hyperinflationary depression.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[successive rounds of publicly disclosed austerity and stimulus...]---MachoMan

Thanks for your post, Macho.

I'm in the QE3, 4, 5, etc. camp. However, the term "QE" will likely be a avoided as a matter of talking point policy. Very much like March 2009 when the Fed went to the TBTF banks and informed them another public bailout would not be tolerated by the public; instead, the Fed did a quiet work-around to float the banks.

Expect QE3, 4, 5, etc. but it may be a quiet work-around. They print. They always print.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yes.  "background stimulus".  The goal is a successive decrease in the amount of stimulus, aka a controlled demolition.  The problem, of course, is that not only the % of debt to revenues matters, but also the aggregate debt...  meaning, unless it's actually being worked off, we're just digging the hole deeper, even if some type of organic recovery occurs and as a percentage, we look errr better or we look better relatively speaking by doing "less" stimulus.

QE may always be disregarded for a more advantageous term.  However, make no mistake, we will take to the streets to demand stimulus...  in the form of continuation of entitlements.  While it may be politically impossible to stuff through another TARP to the banks, it will not be to stuff through a Teachers Airmen Retirees and Patrolmen (TARP) stimulus act of 2011.  

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:14 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Faber is correct.

QE 18 will be implemented in the name of "National Security". This will be during the Hyper-Inflationary Depression of course.

Successive QE will be checks in the mail or entries into every bank account.

Listen to Marc explain this in the lecture he gave to the Mises Institute in early 2010 months in front of QE2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0sS6a9RW2E

go ahead 14 mins in

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Where's Harry Wanger! He's kicked the crap out of most of our resident geniuses by picking stocks using the tried-and-true "throw darts" method.

Wall Street is laughing its ass off at ZH. Time to get back to work, serfs!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Someone has blog envy... Did the mean old management at Moody's deny your vacation time again?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

And Tyler is looking for more gloom and doom to keep the readership numbers up. How many articles on NFP today? The over/under is five.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Teh internets is a big place, and you are certainly free to go elsewhere, Mr. Rearless Fick.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Ha, ha, you're so funny and clever, switching the fist letters on my name. Think I'll hang out here and disrupt the scary "Fight Club" loonies until I set a new record for junks. Government wins, losers!

Come on, punch me, bitchez!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Kina
Kina's picture

sigh. another legless vagina scraping across the carpet.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're here reading so he must be doing something right, you government troll.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Obama can quickly improve the job situation by starting a really big war. A military draft will instantly take unemployment to zero. First you start by keeping any wars remaining from prior administrations going. Next you start a little war for oil somewhere and tell everyone it's for humanitarian reasons........

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment connda
connda's picture

Wouldn't it be cheaper in the long run just to give everyone in the US $1,000,000, tax it at 90%, and let everyone pay off their unsecured debt or buy 50 inch plasma screen TVs?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:06 | Link to Comment quartshort
quartshort's picture

Unfortunatly, 50" plasmas would cost $200,000 if that event were to take place. :(

Here's my idea: Hang CONgress in Times Square and send corrupt CEO's to the Ivory Coast w/ the shirts on their backs and a shovel.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

NP just print jobs

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Who knows, QE is stopped, crash, bonds go up, rates are raised, PIMCO and the Chinese jump back in, zero sum game, but the end of the world is averted.

Then again the USA may participate in Yentervention XXL QE "Fukushima Edition" afterwards and the little wallowing Euro-PIIGies printathon.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

I don't know nothing about no employment problems.  What I do know is that the criminal syndicate Wall Street whipping boys must be doing a very poor job of making more very "special" algorithms purchase shares of Apple, the world's largest maker of zombies.

It is as if someone walked into Duncan Niederauer little secret closet and said, "Computer...end program Zombie...and Earl Grey, hot!"

Someone should co locate Jordi quickly, and make sure the KG60 modulator is still working in the holodeck NYSE. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Their downgrade to market perform could begin to weigh more in days to come.

Was that the way to treat America's darling and #1 producer of non-inflationary foodstuffs ?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

As one well known mind control propaganda puppet says, "keep on dancing till the world ends!"

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Over: 7 articles related to NFP. Number of typos in headlines: 2. TD needs to add +1 to the NFP data by hiring a proofreader.

Now, where's that CogDis guy? Zero Hedge readers are suffering from CD by not believing that government can create statistics to "match the policy." Now where did we hear that term before?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Winning the future fuckers.

Jobs 2012

The sycophants at HuffPo are in engaged a triumphant mass delusion, a veritable Keynesian victory orgy.

I want out.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment RKDS
RKDS's picture

Ha, as if anybody with the money to hire or invest wants to create jobs...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

US Must Create 245,500 Jobs A Month To Return To December 2007 Employment Rate By End Of Obama Second Term

 

 

US Must REPORT 245,500 Jobs A Month To Return To December 2007 Employment Rate By End Of Obama Second Term

There....all better.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Oh good grief!  Brother boiler...you forgot to say "computer."

Get a room over at the Roach Motel [SPY], embrace the algorithm, unpack, and grab a free cocktail down in the lounge.  Be the criminal syndicate Wall Street banker inside of you!

"Computer...run diagnostic on crew member boilermaker.  Report."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The old canard of "lies repeated often enough become the truth" is beginning to lose its relevancy as even the HS dropouts check their empty pockets and exclaim WTF!

Look for more illegal drugs to flood the market at lower prices to keep the sheeple medicated.

"Hope and change" morphs to "high and broke".

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

A square has 3 sides if I'm allowed to repeat it enough times.

Signed,

Goebbles.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Don't forget about what a "job" means in this day and age.  It certainty does not necessarily mean a living wage for a single person.  In the 60's-70's, a household could live off the wages of one earner, while the wife took care of the family (a harder job).  Today it takes the whole house running on hamster wheels, if it is lucky enough to have two wage earners.  What is a "job" anymore?  Don't fool yourself.  The monthly bean counting via the BLS has not shown the structural decline in employment in this Republic in decades, nor shall it ever render a trustworthy reflection of the real employment despair across this once great land.  Look to your new Job G-d - Immelt - on the ticket with Bloomberg in 2016.  Obama will get his second term, especially after he brings back the gold standard (lite) - XDR, or Hillary will have him Vince Fostered.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment American Dissident
American Dissident's picture

Another in an endless slew of WTF moments.  One things for sure, I picked the wrong year to quit smoking...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:56 | Link to Comment RealFinney
RealFinney's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong year to quit sniffing glue...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

I really think this is doable. A couple revisions here, throw out a couple people there and all of a sudden you are at 5% unemployment. I know its crazy, but when the numbers cease to yield any meaning, all is possible. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Bye Bye BOzo, and all your goofy academic pals. One-termer for sure. Ten years from now The Economist will run a "Remember Obama?" issue. By then he'll be teaching a course no one attends at Harvard Law School. It will be called "The Politics of Defeat".

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment American Dissident
American Dissident's picture

And this is NOT survey divergence. 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127538/Workforce-Weekly.aspx

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment aerial view
aerial view's picture

For all you skeptics: over 100k new minimum wage waiter and waitress jobs were created last month: this economy is rolling!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Aint gonna happen........states are in dire condition....Texas MAY cut 100,000 teachers... ....education cuts around the country will be massive. Americans will finally wake up and ask "where is the money".......

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:00 | Link to Comment 911 4S
911 4S's picture

The reality is that as more and more of the unemployeed hit the 99 week they will be dropped from the data thus "backing in" to a much lower unemployment rate

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

We just need to create more healthcare jobs under Obamacare.  More regulation means more jobs in compliance and management.  High paying jobs to make sure all the forms are filled out.

Listen up everyone:  get sick, increase health employment.  Start vomiting.  These employment reports should be able to kickstart the economy.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment stoverny
stoverny's picture

actually the current US private health system is a nightmare of forms and beauracracy, a single-payer system would save billions but of course people love them their current insurance!  All the high-priced pills I want for my diabeeetes!

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:02 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Find the problem and get rid of it and healthcare costs will go down, but leave it alone and costs will continue to climb...it's not the system's fault, it's those who mess around with the system.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:06 | Link to Comment caboy316
caboy316's picture

The problem is the insurance companies' anti-trust exemptions under the McCarran-Ferguson Act. They made a pass at that during the healthcare debate, but it was sold off at the last minute in exchange for votes that the Democrats didn't end up needing anyway.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

Jobs ! ?   Did someone say the word 'jobs' ! ?   What a crock of shit.    According to Professor Michael Hudson of U of Missouri, the government (powers that be) WANTS to reduce the U.S. workforce by 20% !  ...... more stinking $8/hour jobs where we work behind cash registers selling things !    MALINVESTMENTS.   30 years worth of malinvestments to clear out.   Jobs market has collapsed a few years go, housing market is next, then, we go into a currency collapse & from there we head straight for a total collapse of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA.     Decisions at the very top of government & Wall St. has put the American Citizen where they are today.......... when the hell does the revolution start ! & sign me up ! 

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Isn't it upwards of 21% now when you stop fucking around with numbers and take "people that aren't working" as a whole? Instead of "underemployed" and "unemployed" and "partially employed" and then you have the "sad unemployed" and the "poorer unemployed" and the "silly unemployed"

God. You really can't make this shit up can you? It feels like we should just keep the calendar at April 1st for the rest of the year because this shit's hilarious.

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