US Needs To Generate 254,000 Jobs A Month For 65 Months To Get To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture

Every time we update the projection chart of how many jobs have to be created by the end of Obama's now improbable second term, the number goes up.  First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, now it is 254,000: it seems to increase by 5,000 each month. As a reminder this chart looks for the breakeven number that has be attained to restore (not surpass) the jobs that the US economy had back in December 2007 as the Depression started, when accounting for the natural increase of 90,000 people/month in the labor force. Needless to say, there is no way in hell the US economy can create a quarter million jobs per month from now for the next 65 months, as long as the president continues to pander to Wall Street's "wealth creation" via asset returns instead of directing capital into actual economically viable projects that focus on wealth creation through labor.

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Zedge Hero's picture

More obama lies to come, watch what he derives next, a few weeks ago he said 1 trillion so far spent on War debt in the last ten years.  more like 6 trillion.  I've lost hope and want my change back, prefer them in silver pre 1963 coinage of course.

Grinder74's picture

Technically he's only half-racist as BO is only half-black.  I'm sure going to miss our 44th white president!

TruthInSunshine's picture

Confidence game. They've officially lost the game - it matters not what equity markets do or don't do for some time (real markets reflective of economic activity tell the tale; equity markets are always late to reality).

There's nothing sinister, or new, about it - in generic or historical terms. If consumers and businesses are not confident, they will not spend and hire.

There are new, innovative and sinister aspects to this management (Bernanke, Paulson/Geithner, Friedman & Dudley), however, in the form of TARP, TALF & QE (all highly destructive and even criminal [TARP] programs, designed to purely enrich/bailout Wall Street, which has nepotistic ties with the Federal Reserve (and many in government, including Pelosi and Paulson).

But the idea is simple. If consumers and businesses are not confident, they will not spend and hire.

If consumers don't spend and hire, unemployment can't get better, and ultimately, starts to increase.

If unemployment doesn't get better, or ultimately, starts to increase, consumers spend less and businesses hire fewer people, then freeze hiring, then lay people off.

If consumers spend less and businesses hire fewer people, then freeze hiring, then lay people off...

You get the idea.

Print more fiat you say? They have, it's created outrageous real inflation, and has simply destroyed discretionary purchases (and quite a bit of non-discretionary purchases, hence the need for more and larger government transfer payement assistance; hello SNAP).

This is the real 'virtuous circle' that Bernanke has created.

Bernanke is an absolute failure of a man and an economist and central banker because he tried to fight a structural disintegration of the economy, cause by massive government, business and household debt/leverage (don't believe CNBS - U.S. businesses alone - so "flush" with cash - have a record 11 trillion of debt) and structural changes to the employment, consumption and production patterns ushered in by incredible gaps in efficiencies between new global trading partners (which Wall Street capitalized on by engaging in incredible risk taking, banking massive profits, with the 'too big to fail' designees getting taxpayer bailouts), by using monetary policy (which has flamed inflation and thrown water on any potential embers of structural - employment, organic demand, unsubsidized demand - improvement.

This isn't 1933. Bernanke is not brilliant or wise. Bernanke has taken from taxpayers (watch and see how this transfer of the Fed's balance sheet to taxpayers plays out) trillions to bail out the least useful and I'd argue most destructive segment of the capitalistic base (the money shifters), and with time, the taxpayers, consumers and producers of real wealth (businesses that create things of real value and don't simply shift money from one pocket to another account) will suffer a death of a thousand blows.

The window to truly help the U.S. and global economy has closed. Bernanke & Paulson will go down as not only failures, but criminal accomplices that helped usher in a new economic depression.

The middle class revolution in the United States will happen. It won't be bloody or violent, but it will be effective in it's "not buying anything not needed or that which I'm not subsidized heavily to buy" simplicity.

The CONFIDENCE game of having government mouthpieces and the proxy media tell the consumer and taxpayer that all is well and green shoots are blossoming is for naught. Even the sheeple understand that the system is broken and that they're being lied to, even if they don't understand the intricate details of the hows and whys - most undeniably, there's less money in their pockets and less purchasing power to go with the less fiat, so they feel it.

When CONFIDENCE is lost, commerce slows, and as commerce and interchange is the liquidity and oil of the economic engine, things seize up.

TheTmfreak's picture

I think you've really hit the nail on the head on the emphasis on shuffling money to "make money" rather than through production. That is the heart of this entire issue. Production creates wealth by turning something of not much value (in its current form) into something somebody wants/needs. What assists even further is the use of that to create more production. I.E. Ore mined to be sent to a machine builder, who sells machines to somebody who extracts more ore, or cultivates agriculture.

The assumption was you bail out the big banks so that they can assist businesses who conduct or will conduct this sort of action through giving them capital. That clearly didn't happen since the risk is too great, not guarranteed, and can't be manipulated as easy. (likely harder to get legislation forcing consumers to buy or subsidize some shitty product than to bet on stocks or the failure of other banks/countries).

Marco's picture

There is a small problem though ... the value of ore is no longer "of not much value". There is more than enough labour and not enough ore. We live in the time of peak everything.

TheTmfreak's picture

Well sort of. I'm not going to say it doesn't have value because to those who get their living off of mining it/processing it, it does. However the "end consumer" its value is what it EVENTUALLY becomes. (hence the markups).

Well don't be so quick to say there is plenty of labor. This more than a "there are plenty of bodies" situation. Labor is limited by unions, regulations, education requirements, and so on. Not to mention there isn't exactly a shit load of people jumping at the job. This is ontop of the fact that ore is becoming harder and harder to extract.

TheTmfreak's picture

Thanks for sending that. Good read. Nothing really new or surprising, but organized well. Although I think it should be clarified that one should get out of real estate as a "wealth" generating asset, rather than owning a house in general.

Alot of the government "what ifs" in the article are kind of pointless to mention. Anything can be done by a desperate government, so its not worth mentioning. "The government could go fascist/communist and take your land" Well yeah, no duh, but its not like one can prepare for that. (Although if you have no physical transportable assets because you've wasted all of your money on consumption or a home, then yeah)

Its also hard to make those arguments to stay out of real estate, then to say that one should buy a house with a really good mortgage that is near water and so on. Unless of course you mean "don't buy real estate as something to make money off of, rather than to live.

Cthonic's picture

Governments have many other tools in their pocket to steal your property like zoning...

It's even worse than that.  Even when real estate is properly zoned, development can be denied indefinitely by an inadequately compensated planning commission.

karzai_luver's picture

if we could hold around the 1990 level it's the best to hope for.


karzai_luver's picture

age and time.

That's all that ever "fixes" anything.


The boomers have(had) the power to spend but age and the end of easy money

via fake jobs has sunk in and they are not going to spend

as before.


None of the other GENS have the bucks.


1990 if you are lucky.

REALITY when it BITES, is a bitch.


Confience is when you are still asleep and can engage the magical thinking

that it always has to be better.



REALITY when it BITES is a bitch.




dick cheneys ghost's picture

And just wait until they pull $4 trillion out of the wont be long......

walküre's picture

They won't pull it out, it will just flow through their accounts into the economy. Much of it into pharmaceuticals and the medical sector.

The problem is rather that the 4 trillion they intend to pull out aren't really there.

trav7777's picture

you're a racist too.  Black is black.  Just like Halle Barry said.  One drop rule, paper bag test (they do these at HBCUs).

Don Quixotic's picture

Can someone explain wtf is going on with the S&P volume... this is kind of scaring me a little because I have no idea what is going on.

Don Quixotic's picture

No volume in JPM or C either... wtf is going on!!!!!! Does anyone have any guesses? Anyone?

equity_momo's picture

Yeah all the long only dumb fks are clenching their swivel chairs with thier puckered assholes hoping Brian "The Ball" Sack bids the market up in the last hour to unload some risk into. Failing that , theres going to be a big red candle to close out the last hour.

Don Quixotic's picture

is it unreasonable to think they're trying to hold shares until the July put options they sold to fund equity purchases expire out of the money so they don't get hit with a double whammy?

ebworthen's picture

Are you serious?

The banks are insolvent, cotton candy spinning since 2008.

If you were in and didn't get out before the jobs report you are delusional or suicidal.

Buying them on a day like today, and a Friday, would be almost as bad.

HAL 9000 says hello.

Don Quixotic's picture

What does any of this have to do with the question above? OK, the banks are insolvent. That's actually my point. There should be heavy selling volume. OK, people didn't get out before the report, let's even say a bunch of people got in. WHERE'S THE SELLING VOLUME? DID YOU EVEN LOOK TO SEE WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT? 

And who said anything about buying?

Give me a break man.

ebworthen's picture

I was responding to JPM and C part.

Why sell on a down day?

The inside money knows they can wait for a debt ceiling deal or some other fluffer news (pre-released to them) to pump the financials back up - then they can rotate out if they want to - so they won't sell today.

It's Friday, why would anyone buy or sell financials today?

In general, we just had 7 of 8 days up, something like 7%.  You either sold into the move up yesterday and went to cash or bought something else, yesterday.

The incredibly low volume tells you that traders and even investors are not participating in the markets much and that a majority of any volume are HFT desks and shops who aren't going to do anything on a Friday with bad news - or - they will wait for the last hour and see what kind of mischief their algos can do.

max2205's picture

tyler it wont be a problem, just recalc birthdeath as well as the CPI....full employment and low inflation (on paper)...weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

mr. mirbach's picture

it ain't racist to dislike a black man for being an asshat douche is it?

coppertop's picture

if you don't love de coon you miz recist

HelluvaEngineer's picture

We're gonna need an ass ton of shovels.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Readying QE 3, 4 and 5 for liftoff.

White House, we have liftoff. Liftoff of QE 3, 4 and 5.

God bless what is left of America.

Josh Randall's picture

QE3 = a great way to artificially lift stock portfolios until after the election. So lets see, add that to the following:

* Free housing for unemployed for a year - CHECK!

* Released oil resrves for cheaper gas over the next year to stem off riots - CHECK!

* Constant wars around the world provides jobs for the young and violent, the crotchety old Truck Drivers, and old Engineers working as Contractors making tons of cash - CHECK!

* Continued blind eye to Wall Street pilaging and looting so a large donor base and voting block can be secured - CHECK!

Boy you really need to hand it to these snakes, they are pulling out all stops to secure re-election.  

SheepDog-One's picture

Theyve got everyone certain no matter what, more QE always certain to come to bail out massive equity bubble, as Wall St stacks their shorts.

r101958's picture

The big question is this; what is going to be promised in order to be elected?

Dr. No's picture

They will cut social security (effective 2016 or some time in the future) to get debt ceiling raised (and blame it on the repubs).  In election season, they will promise to "roll back" the SS cuts. 

Step 3, profit! 

karzai_luver's picture

same as it ever was , only that the other side is going to be worse

and come after YOUR free shit.

as it eveh waz.


Obamao will (if smart) cave to anything the REpubs want to cut in the

medicaid/medicare arena in a 10-15 year deal.


Then he will run on those cuts to try to scare the free shitters into

voting for him to LIMIT the damage.


Might , just might have a shot since they can't run on the JOBS.



shortus cynicus's picture

Thank you for great comment. One note:

* Constant wars around the world provides jobs for the young and violent, the crotchety old Truck Drivers, and old Engineers working as Contractors making tons of cash - CHECK!

I hope you don't underestimate your own words.

After beating Third Rich the winners let all the crony structures of power remain in place - it was cheap and effective way for getting order and self-sustained economy.

In Iraq, they did exactly the opposite! All the Saddam's structures would willingly work for new masters, but it was denied to them just to make war as expensive as possible.

Dirty fresh printed paper must be in some way spread amoung debtors to ease the credit burden and make the ponzi going. Current wars are money-loundering and job creation enterprises.

According to the total cost since 2001 is 1.218 billion FRNs. And that's only what we know, who can guarantee that FED has no secret "credit line" for this special purpose?

Dr. No's picture

I know it is fun to talk about QE3 etc., especially when the topic of jobs comes up.  From day 1, thinkers knew QE was not intended to stimulate job growth, but was marketed as such anyway.  Fast forward to a year later with no job growth.  Even non-Phd trained economist can see the data does not show QE creates jobs.  So I have to wonder, is there traction to initiate QE3 on the basis to create jobs?  I dont think so.  If there is a QE3, the FED will need to drag out a new marketing ploy on why it is necissary. 

I really dont think creative reason is needed, just say the truth: QE is intended for the biggest banks to unload liabilities to the FED.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A lie by any other name is still a lie. 

They can call it whatever they wish to call it, but it is (and was) obvious more pumping will be pursued. The junkies are not sated and quite frankly never would be once they were hooked on debt. The only question left is what politically expedient name will be used to cover up the wholesale theft and destruction.

Hooked on debt. I like the sound of that.

SheepDog-One's picture

Sorry I dont agree with this one CD...the point was never to just pump, it was to keep people from selling until the rug is pulled out. 'Monetize the debt' was the game, and the game is over. Believing they just keep pumping is playing Russian roulette with 6 chambers loaded.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You may be entirely correct. We won't really know until the grounds crew is called in to clean up the mess.

But I suspect there are many more innings left in this game with plenty of private debt left to be absorbed by "we the people".

Let the games begin.......again. :>)

DaveyJones's picture

I'm confused CD, are our divine blessings like our debt? Will we take any god's blessings? I hear the indians have the most. Or do we have an inside ponzi scheme with Rome?  

DocinPA's picture

Helicopter Ben might just get lynched if he tries it.  There are a whole bunch of families hurting from food inflation and more than a few have figured why we have it.