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Why aren't the algos pumping ES higher with "better than expected" data?
Muted reaction so far;
Euro ZEW survey come in at -4.4 vs expectation of +10 so this is possibly weighting on ES or maybe it's the first sign of negative market reaction to slightly positive data (as portrayed by the figures)...
One can dream...
I have posted a number of charts on ths site, but making ameasured move from the bottm trned line we should be due for a pullback.
in addition we have end of quarter window dressing to take care of.
the fed programs were put into effect tomake sure we breached a certain trend line, becasue other wise we continued on the down trend. you will see fed efforts to keep us above that baseline trend.
back to school should have given this number a boost!! But autos have hit another rough patch..time for Clunkers2
Thought we already had that in DC; 2 Clunkers, Executive and Legislative.
A sequel never does wel. We need something else.
I propose this:
For example: You turn in a Ford Focus and YOU GET A MUSTANG
I think it could work.
"For example: You turn in a Ford Focus and YOU GET A MUSTANG
I think it could work."
I could get behind this one. Especially if they open it up to trucks, Ford Superduty being the best. Chevy and Dodge, meh.
Don't you love how they spun thar as a go green, trade in for a high mpg car. People ended up getting new f150s
Btw trucks aren't evil. Real people do real work with them.
"And once again, government data disagrees with official polling"
If you're the goverment in a pre election month and you've tweaked the other data then why skip over tweaking retail sales.
Retail does nothing until wages increase....
And THIS does not happen until some time after the debt destruction process....
Long slog ahead....because govt. policy is just the opposite.....The Princeton Harvard Yale team just are not capable in their ability to understand the proper road to recovery....which means progress will not happen until THEY are removed from their positions of influence....
The data does not make sense. Census Bureau claims auto sales were down 1% YoY and less than 1% MoM when we know from the auto makers that sales were down over 20% YoY and 5% MoM.
So POMO days ad infinitum?
Certainly appears that way.
once again previous months data are adjusted to make current month look better than expected. Transferring 0.1% from July to August: not only this makes it look as an improvement (0.3% to 0.4%, while July was at 0.4%), it also makes it beat the consensus of 0.3%. How obvious.
Moreover, what are we talking about: 0.1% changes... What's the error margin on that survey?
Consumer reports (the magazine) retail sales gauge was just on cnbs. Hanes ripped her apart saying they've only done it for a year how reliable is it compared to the retail sales number.
Anyone follow this?
yeah, Hanes is a lawyer......so naturally he's going to blow off anything that isn't older than his underwear....just shows though, the government data doesn't match. Will there be a diminished impact on the psychie of investors to government data in the future?
Seasonal adjustments added in the usual back to school gain. Without the adjustment the number is down.
Seasonal adjustments for this report subtract for back-to-school sales, to smooth the numbers. Without seasonal adjustments the number is higher. Non-adjusted figure is 371,733. Seasonally adjusted figure is 363,704.
'but not for price changes"?
Well, I got my call on BBY wrong. What I am amazed is that futures are down. Did the Fed feel that todays numbers were good enough for them to do nothing?
Read bby a bit. Same stores down, big ticket down, I was WTF.
Well my call was BBY would just miss on EPS and that revenues would be down. Forgot that patriotizing from other denominations to a shitty dollar would help.
They say the zew numbers on level with feb09 aren't helping which is why gold is up.
Here's the bottom line from the data in the report - everything you need (food, clothing) is more expensive while anything you want after taking care of your needs (iPads) is less expensive, but still can't be afforded because you're out of money.
According to the government website, the estimated "increase" in retail sales does not account for price increases.
"The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked ...
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes."
apologize for the duplicate posts,
Gallup's rolling average seems to be headed downward....very slowly.
Just got this tweet from Platts:
US retail gasoline sales fell 3.2% over the survey week ending September 10 to 61.857 million barrels, MasterCard SpendingPulse data shows
Apparently, retail sales ain't so rosey after all!
Sales could keep coming in at an intitial .4% number, be revised down to .3%, so would average a .1% increase MOM even though it really isn't going anywhere.
curious to see how much was volume vs price growth?
Inflation driven spending growth?
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