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US Revises Estimate For The BP Oil Spill Higher For Third Time, Now At 35,000-60,000 Per Day As BP Cries Foul Over Counterparty Exposure

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US government has revised its estimate for the daily oil spill for the third time, now decidedly higher than the last iteration which was at 25,000-40,000 barrels per day. The latest estimate puts the high end another 50% higher, at 60,000 barrels. If this is indeed the case, it means that the amount of oil already having leaked could be as high a 3 million barrels, or 12 times the amount spilled in the Exxon Valdez. Whether this means that the previous estimate of a total possible BP liability and other payments of $80 billion have to be adjusted higher once again, is still unknown. We hope the president's speech at 8pm will provide some more clarity on whether or not today's BP CDS Spread around 500 is justified.

In other news, and as we discussed previously, the topic of BP counterparty risk is now approaching critical mass. In an exlcusive article, Reuters has reported that "Bank of America Merrill Lynch has ordered its traders not to enter into oil trades with BP Plc. that extend beyond June 2011." In other words, BofA is limiting the duration of all derivatives to one year. It also likely means that any on the run 5 year swaps have to be immediately unwound. And one can be certain BofA is not the only one doing this.

The order to the bank's traders came from a high-level executive and was made Monday, according to a source familiar with it. It told traders not to engage in trade with BP for contracts beyond one year from this month.

The directive didn't state a reason for the limit on longer-duration trades with the oil company, which comes as the British oil giant scrambles to stop an oil spill in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico for which it could eventually face billions of dollars in economic liabilities.

 

 

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Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:34 | 415603 EdwardTeach
EdwardTeach's picture

Go long Corexit... Cha--ching!!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:28 | 415741 ratava
ratava's picture

what is the cancer most likely to be caused by it? lung, skin, glands? i would long that.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:37 | 415613 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Nowhere have I seen an estimate of how many barrels remain in this particular well. Anyone know ??

I shudder to think we will have to drain the entire underground inventory to stop it.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:50 | 415643 cossack55
cossack55's picture

It seems Anadarko estimated 2 - 2.5 Billion.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:52 | 415648 Hansel
Hansel's picture

found via naked capitalism,
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

"According to BP data from about five years ago, there are four separate reservoirs containing a total of 2.5 billion barrels (barrels not gallons). One of the reservoirs has 1.5 billion barrels. I saw an earlier post here quoting an Anadarko Petroleum report which set the total amount at 2.3 billion barrels. One New York Times article put it at 2 billion barrels."

There are probably better sources, but you get what you pay for.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:59 | 415664 breezer1
breezer1's picture

one theory says 30 years to empty. how many years to fill the oceans? how many hurricanes to wipe out life on the east coast? bp should have been taken over and the executives arrested weeks ago. there is no one running the country.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:09 | 415812 baserunr
baserunr's picture

And what special talents will the government bring with their takeover?  The ability to stop the pre-planned burn off of surface oil?  The skill to not maintain on-hand or deploy the planned control booms?  The talent to prohibit interim barriers from being constructed until they complete "reviews"? The shortsightedness to stop (or not accept) expertise from outside the country venturing in to assist in clean up and control operations?  Be careful what you wish for.  The Feds lack of preparation and slow-footed response has made things worse than they otherwise would be.  BP will likely suffer the corporate death penalty, as perhaps it should.  But the government taking over all operations, when they cannot even manage those items they are assigned to manage, is a recipie for enhanced disaster.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:57 | 416131 Kurtieboy
Kurtieboy's picture

The last thing we need is the govn't looking after this mess and the last thing the govn't wants is for BP to go bankrupt. Than they are on the hook for the liabilities.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 03:23 | 416635 Insert witty title
Insert witty title's picture

Haliburton and Transocean next?

 

Bhopal much dick cheese?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlUQ2sUti8o

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:13 | 415695 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Gulf Oil Spill ‘Could Go Years’ If Not Dealt With
author of Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order
by F. William Engdahl

June 10, 2010

"Senior  researchers tell us that the BP drilling hit one of the oil migration channels and that the leakage could continue for years unless decisive steps are undertaken, something that seems far from the present strategy". "When the Army Corps of Engineers first attempted to obtain NASA imagery of the Gulf oil slick, which is larger than is being reported by the media, it was reportedly denied the access. By chance, National Geographic managed to obtain satellite imagery shots of the extent of the disaster and posted them on their web site. Other satellite imagery reportedly being withheld by the Obama administration, shows that what lies under the gaping chasm spewing oil at an ever-alarming rate is a cavern estimated to be the size of Mount Everest. This information has been given an almost national security-level classification to keep it from the public, according to Madsen’s sources".

Full story here

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2010/0610.html

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 05:09 | 416673 Popo
Popo's picture

The subsurface strata is pourous not cavernous.  The whole "cavern the size of mount everest" thing seems to have caught on, but it's an entirely inaccurate depiction.

That having been said, we're still fucked.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:24 | 415729 gasmiinder
gasmiinder's picture

Reports at the time of the initial blowout were that BP was planning a press release touting 100 - 150 million barrels recoverable.  Billion barrel numbers are ridiculous - anyone touting that can be immediately written off as not having a clue.  Ditto for anyone claiming they "found one of the oil migration channels".  Total clueless comment.  Everything tried to date was an attempt to mitigate.  Relief wells are the standard protocol to regain control in this situation and they will work (99% likelihood).  However the key question is WHEN they will work and that will depend on how many attempts to intersect the borehole are required plus weather related issues (hurricanes will require moving off location).

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:43 | 415771 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

+1,000 for smarts!

Yup... ain't gonna see that coming out of even one helluva giant hole... same for migration channels... there is only one channel and that is the well bore.

I like your sense of optimism on the relief wells working... those who know way more than I have considerable doubts. If the well holds together the chances are good (it's just a matter of time to reduced flows from reservoir pressure drops or successful relief well interception)

If not and we see more oil emerging from the sea floor like we currently are?

We are screwed.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 07:18 | 416714 ydderf1950
ydderf1950's picture

a lotta wierd shit going on around the world but this gom thing scares the fucking shit out of me.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:48 | 415796 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

I saved your comment so that in a few months I can re-post it and remind you of how stupid I am.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:35 | 415909 Hansel
Hansel's picture

You're nuts if you think the relief wells have a 99% chance of stopping the leak, and there is no standard protocol for deep water disasters.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:36 | 415919 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

And Simmons says in other story that a well head must be in place. He says none have been done without a well head. He says the velocity of the oil will tear the well head out eventually.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:09 | 415992 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Anyone hear Simmons mention that "other hole" miles away from the riser?  That bit about the riser just being a sideshow is what caught my attention.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:10 | 415999 gasmiinder
gasmiinder's picture

99% figure is from industry analysts private communication.  The standard protocol reference was to any serious lost well control issue.  Relief wells are not new or untested technology.  They work.  Simmons comments have reached ludicrous levels - and I can assure you that the relief wells have wellheads, it's not possible to drill without them.  When not if is the issue on the relief wells.  Erosion of the existing pipe/wellhead at these huge flow rates IS a valid concern but that will not affect the ability to kill the well downhole - and these flow rates are likely also damaging the reservoir with a result that flow rates slow naturally eventually.  Bottom line is these "Armageddon" pronouncements are ludicrous.  It is always enlightening when a news story occurs where you have some modicum of expertise - you quickly realize that "journalists" and commenters are quite happy to pretend a level of understanding far beyond what they actually possess.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 12:28 | 417204 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Gasmiinder, Here is your own quote, "Reports at the time of the initial blowout were that BP was planning a press release touting 100 - 150 million barrels recoverable. Billion barrel numbers are ridiculous - anyone touting that can be immediately written off as not having a clue." Quote..

Now i'm not a science rocket but lets try a little math... Estimates say the leak is now 60,000 barrels a day...60,000 barrels a day x 58 days leaked = 3,480,000 barrels total leaked. Based on your theory the well should have dried up 32 days ago!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:39 | 415616 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Remember people oil and water just don't mix. Or is it people don't mix with oil in water?

I get so confused.

But it's still safe to eat the seafood and vacation.

I love my government.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:52 | 415647 cossack55
cossack55's picture

If we were to dump about 12 million barrels of vinegar in the GoM, and add some pepper and italian spices, we could bottle it and make a killing.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:02 | 415669 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

A killing, indeed.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:45 | 415785 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

+35-60,000

When life gives you lemons... :)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:54 | 415814 Kali
Kali's picture

Don't worry, it will be on its way to Iceland soon, you wont have to come down here to do that.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:44 | 415627 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

I wanna start an over under on the spill reports eventually being greater that 100K barrels per day.

Initial odds:

100K and over: +110

Under 100K: -120

any suggestions? I mean, we are all gambooooooolers now aren't we?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:44 | 415630 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Change...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:03 | 415672 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

...you can count on.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:52 | 415805 Cistercian
Cistercian's picture

 You can count on the GOM changing.

 No more gulf shrimp for the foreseeable future either.I will miss it.

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:24 | 415892 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Priceless!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:52 | 415650 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

If beach houses on the gulf side of Florida go to 20 cents on the dollar - I am a buyer 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:49 | 415800 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Dunno. Those fumes coming off the water will get ya pretty high after a while. The houses won't be worth 20 cents at that point.

Do we have an over/under on when Barky plans to do anything substantive? I'm thinking about 3 months after it's too late there will be a study group tentatively formed with a 2 year timeline to report.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:52 | 415808 Kali
Kali's picture

Precisely!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:54 | 415655 kaiten
kaiten's picture

With this pace of updates, we´ll be soon at 100 000 barrels per day.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:56 | 415660 J K
J K's picture

3 million barrels - that's just a little less than was lost at sea in World War II when German U-Boats torpedoed 16 tankers in the Gulf of Mexico and 23 more along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:15 | 415704 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

This is what a geologist told me too. It helps to keep things in perspective. A lot of emotion in this story

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:25 | 415733 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sorry but it's not a fair comparison. All those torpedoed tankers didn't have every single tank compartment blown open and drained. And all these tankers didn't all go down in the same place. And these tankers went down in two oceans, not one Gulf. I could go on but you understand that the comparison isn't even apples and oranges.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:35 | 415761 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

The oil spill into the strait near Kuwait was the largest oil spill in world history. Life is pretty much the same there now as long as you aren't running from depleted uranium rounds

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:47 | 415789 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Correct... there never was a lot of life springing forth from the desert sands...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:58 | 416279 Muir
Muir's picture

:-)

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 02:48 | 416619 doggings
doggings's picture

plus torpedoed oil burns.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:45 | 415787 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

But that was fuel oil, aviation fuel and kerosene, not crude. Big difference...

 

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:05 | 415845 J K
J K's picture

About half the lost oil was indeed raw crude, and lot's more was bunker fuel - just slightly lighter than crude. And no one cleaned it up. Booms, dispersants - those didn't exist.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:03 | 415671 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

So this well is going to set the record for the most productive Gulf well ever - by far - despite still having the drill and lots of broken bits of cement/casing still stuck in it?

A record-breaking Gulf well is/was 15,000 barrels a day.  This ones output is being "estimated" from all the emulsified slop floating about on the surface - not a notably accurate form of measurement with nothing previous for comparison.

BP is being deliberately set up for a takeover.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:19 | 415714 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I hear ya, but im assuming an uncontrolled and broken well leaks a lot more than it would under normal, safe circumstances.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:25 | 415734 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I should not have laughed that hard...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:33 | 415758 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The completed production well flow has to do with pressure differential, field size and depth, field porosity and so on. You never ever open the tap full on a well if you want the well to produce as much as it can for as long as it can. In fact, opening the well fully up for a long enough time (depending on the field, this could be months to a few years) actually damages the field and lowers the total recoverable oil/gas, sometimes by 50% or more.

So your comparison of shallow GOM wells with lower pressure and lower porosity that are not turned full on and what's going on with BP is a non starter. The other deep sea wells were expected to produce 30k to 60k in this same field and in adjacent fields under production circumstances, not wide open. Spend a few days learning the subject rather than reading a 10 paragraph CNN article.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:51 | 415798 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

We are becoming such great learners here CD...

Say when is Chapter 5 going to be released if you don't mind me asking?

Friday evening would be good for me... and as a bonus you will get mucho posts from the intensive weekend exposure!

(Although you are doing quite nicely in the post count department already my friend!)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:51 | 415951 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm shooting for Friday for chapter 5, but no promises.

And chapter 4 just passed 29,000 reads, a near record for contributors as far as I can tell. Though Tyler and Marla have put up a few that have gone to 45,000 or more. I suspect this is because my series has been re-posted on dozens of web sites. People are interested to read my series to see if their neighbor is insane. Of course they aren't, just the neighbor. :>)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:30 | 416047 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

You my friend are making an impact!

Good on you.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:49 | 415799 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

Fair point; so what would your informed estimate be of the flow-rate - given what's currently known of the damaged state of the well?

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:53 | 415809 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I'm going 80-100K... they are getting closer to admitting that by the hour it seems.

That said this administration (like those preceding it) are incapable of telling the truth.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:54 | 415957 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Who really knows but considering they (BP) are taking in 15,000 a day from the containment "dome" and processing it at the surface and it hasn't made a dent, it might be even higher.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:10 | 415998 Screwloose
Screwloose's picture

Has it been established whether that is a net 15,000bpd of crude - or a mixture of oil, seawater and the methanol they are reportedly injecting as anti-freeze?

Would you agree that attempting to produce any flow estimate of a mile-deep blowout from aerial surface surveys is so inaccurate as to be disingenuous.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:40 | 416245 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I fully agree it's very difficult to measure the flow. Which is why I won't quote numbers thou I will say it's clearly much much more than 15,000. And the 15,000 is actual processed crude after separation and treatment per BP and the WH. The gas a flared and the sea water is treated and dumped.

15,000 crude oil per day. And they now have another processing ship along side that can take it up another 8,000 per day. And more coming. This is why they had to increase the estimate. You don't want to be processing more crude than you estimate is coming out. It kills your credibility.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:33 | 416055 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Screw the 15,000 CD... it's chump change.

I say 100,000 from the BOP but don't forget there is probably a huge (unmeasurable) amount coming from those leaks on the ocean floor and no way to quantify it.

Later!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:52 | 415804 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

The well casing is about the diameter of a barrel of oil, it was a JET of oil coming out, several barrels a second 60*60*24. That's a shit load.

BP is not being setup, they set us up (US).

If you boycot BP you also boycott funding of the UK government. Sorry across-the-pond dudes, get ready for a little jolt.

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:55 | 415818 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

One barrel per second (as you indicated) is 86,400 per day. It looks like more than that to be but I tend to err on the conservative side at times...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:06 | 415677 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

At 60,000 barrels/day, & 55 gals/barrel, we've got 3,300,000 gals/day. An Olympic pool 50 meters x 25 meters x 2 meters holds 660,000 gallons. Which translates neatly to 5 Oly-sized swimming pools of crude oil gushing into the Gulf every day. Since April 20, which was 56 days ago, we get 280 pools so far. Please check my work. I'm just trying to get a handle on how much of this goop is ruining the Southeastern United States.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:19 | 415715 IE
IE's picture

At what point is the entire Carribean - or even big parts of the Atlantic - at risk?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:27 | 415739 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Now. Rephrase the question? I'm not informed enough to answer the real question you want answered. But they are "at risk" NOW. They already have found oil in the Gulf Stream.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 22:33 | 416338 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

At what point is the entire Carribean - or even big parts of the Atlantic - fucked?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 22:56 | 416381 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

There are some scientists saying that the Gulf stream can whip it around FL and up the coast and out into the world, giving the whole globe a taste (Europe, etc.) in 18 months. I have not found the article I read, but I found these maps and discussion that shows how it could happen.

http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/ocean-current-7b.jpg

http://content.screencast.com/users/buddawiggi/folders/Jing/media/e4d559f7-72a3-42ef-8409-17a675de3f5e/2010-06-11_0838.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE-1G_476nA&feature=player_embedded

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:37 | 415767 JohnG
JohnG's picture

One barrel of oil is 42 US gallons......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_barrel

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:48 | 415793 MapleLeaf
MapleLeaf's picture

1 Bbl = 42 gallons > 2.5M gallons/day > ~4 pools

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:55 | 415817 vs-trader
vs-trader's picture

Why are we mixing the Imperial (barrels, gallons) with metric (meters). Getting very confusing.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:39 | 415927 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

So, are you trying to imply that oil swimming will be the next big olympic sport? Will that include synchronized oil swimming? And oil diving? Thanks!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 23:34 | 416441 TheSettler
TheSettler's picture

Barreels of Oil are only 42 gal.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:07 | 415678 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Let's see...

 

5,000 - Nope

10,000 - Nope

25,000 - Nah

30,000 - Whoops

60,000...JESUS CHRIST

80,000...Tomorrow

Uh....can we not forget that this will go on FOR MONTHS!

At least this will make Consumer Confidence SOAR like a condor.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:15 | 415705 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Yup. Im waiting for the 'official' revision to be somewhere around 1 trillion barrels/day. Enough to get everyone and their grandmother upset at BP.

And of course, this is bullish news as we know it.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:41 | 415932 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

It's like going back and revising the GDP and unemployment numbers!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:10 | 415681 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

ROFL why doesn't anybody look at Rolling Stone's picture of such an estimate 64,000-110,000 barrels a day on April 22nd, by NOAA. That's right, the gov't had an estimate like this (and probably before) TWO days after the explosion. So what's with this, 3rd revision 2 months later, and it still only barely breaches the lower bound of the estimate? Just goes to show you, Obama has been kissing the Queen's butt since the get-go, and please don't end BP's support for the CCX in Chicago.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:14 | 415700 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Look, if you intend to simply hide behind the facts of the matter...maybe this place isn't for you.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:11 | 415687 Tips1
Tips1's picture

 

B.P, Halliburton and Transocean have unleashed Armageddon and now there is no stopping it.

www.opednews.com/articles/B-P-Halliburton-and-Trans-by-Chris-Landau-100611-452.html

 

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:24 | 415732 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Looks like an article from the national enquirer....wonder if aliens had anything to do with it.

Please people.....it's just oil, and yes....it actually decomposes...and yes, bacteria actually eat it. There's an app for that. One guy on here said that it will take "6000 years" for things to return to normal. Oil folks....not radioactive isotopes. Yes, short term it's gonna be a shitty mess and I feel for those folks. The relief well will be drilled and they will fix the leak and all this will be a long lost CNN hype moment to distract people from selling their stocks.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:33 | 415750 Chemba
Chemba's picture

Thank you for the balanced common sense.  That said, I am appreciative of the emotional herding because that is what creates opportunity, like for example buying RIG at $42 last week.  up 15% in four trading days (and out)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:40 | 415776 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Reminds me of the days of H1N1.....run for your lives!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:50 | 415801 geopol
geopol's picture

Relief wells will have zero effect, the problem is more dynamic than you apparently are aware...The major exposure is in the containment / ocean floor...no side drilling well, will solve this issue. The top kill was suspended the same day because the 20,000 PSI was opening the well drain,,,breaching the drill shaft,,this caused the ten other fissures in the ocean bed to expel the brown element you have observed in the pelican heart tug..

Whats coming out of the well HEAD is sheen,,, not the major issue , It would appear from other elements of inquiry and the fact that the Ocean Saratoga is also leaking and has been leaking since at least April 30.

This has dire implications, your cavalier meter has pegged.... 


 

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:12 | 415863 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

There is a lot of fear out there and a lot of brilliant minds are working on the problem. A solution will be found. If not, America has found a massive source of cheap oil. Just skim and serve.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:40 | 415931 Cistercian
Cistercian's picture

 Honesty...what a concept.Thank you for your post.Only a few can discern the machinations which conceal the horror behind the curtain.Based on what little I have, the relief well will not work...and the formation is too unstable to plug at the depth they need.Uncontrolled deposit bleed out.20 to 30 years.

 Fishing?Not so much.People I know with a clue are not optimistic, to the point of recommending not going to work, spending time with the family, and getting as drunk as possible.

  I have no idea if this is an ELE.But I do know that if it is,TPTB won't tell us.

 We will get to find out ourselves.

 Greed driven species FAIL?I really hope not.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:54 | 416270 Kurtieboy
Kurtieboy's picture

Ok time to get back on the meds!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 23:37 | 416447 Cistercian
Cistercian's picture

 Stand by for the flow upgrade in a few more weeks to 100k+.

  And the "delays" in the relief well stopping the flow.

   I really hope I am wrong.And if I am right...meds won't help.Not even a little.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 14:36 | 417559 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

I bought a Wii to play kids' party games. I want to do the most mindless things I can discover. Anyone with ideas?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:56 | 415822 Oquities
Oquities's picture

 if matt simmons has his way it will be radioactive isotopes.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:46 | 415928 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You have no idea what you are talking about.

People with experience in dealing with oil-impacted environments are saying this will be a decades-long nightmare. If you want proof, read up on the current (as of the below 1999 account) state of things at Prince William Sound:

By official counts, the spill killed 250,000 seabirds, 2,800 sea otters, 300 harbor seals, 250 bald eagles and 22 killer whales. Numerous other species, from salmon to clams, also suffered casualties. More than 500 miles of remote wilderness shoreline was oiled.

Yet a decade later, the river otter and the bald eagle are the only species to have recovered. Thirteen other species, such as salmon, harbor seals, and several seabirds, are listed as "recovering." Still other species, such as the sound's killer whales, have shown little sign of bouncing back, according to Stan Senner, chief scientist with the trustee council.

And that was a low-productivity cold-water habitat, with rocky shores that could be steam-cleaned with detergents (which they were as a team of 300 biologists collectively lost their minds in grief.)

But that was cake. How do you clean an oil-fouled wetland: You truck the top 36" of topsoil and vegetation to a Class 2 licensed hazardous waste dump and pave it over. Maybe they'll repurpose the entire state of Arkansas for the disposal.

The states in contact with the GoM are one Presidential decree away from becoming one huge SuperFund site. Those people are so fucked up it will take them 10 years just to quantify the level of fucked up they are.

Get a Ph.D so you can add something useful or else STFU, crackhead.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:10 | 415969 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

And this leak is in a very hot and humid environment. Oil breakdown will occur at much faster pace than Alaska. Up here in Alberta we have a very massive oil spill and it is in our sand too. Happens to be quite profitable and useful:) Not saying this isn't a tragedy - it is. It's gonna take some time and ingenuity to correct it, but life will return. Unfortunately, this is the price we pay for our love affair with SUV's and plastic houses. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 23:27 | 416430 TheSettler
TheSettler's picture

Hey you ignorant fuck, leave me and my State out of this. We here in AUKANSAW have the 2nd largest shale/frac project in the U.S. going on, we can burn your ASS with our tapwater if need be. Seriously everybody just needs to step back, take a deep breath, and resolve to end the neverending confusion that seems to be the norm these days. After all this aint no brain surgery/ rocket science. Just COMMON SENSE.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 14:39 | 417571 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

@ geminiRX

Bacteria 1: "I'm loving all this oil but I'm tasting a little something else. It's quite tangy."

Bacteria 2: "Oh, it's the only A1 of oil dispersants: Corex-it. Cute name, no?"

Bacteria 1: "Eh, I think I'm done feeding for the moment. Feeling a little sick to my stomach."

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:13 | 415694 Kali
Kali's picture

They are lying about everything.  This is a disaster of epic proportions.  The Dust Bowl will seem like peanuts compared to this, think mass exodus.  Puny humans. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:22 | 415721 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

What a load of shit!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:23 | 415725 Kali
Kali's picture

You are a moron.  I used to work for these companies.  You have no idea what you are talking about.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:31 | 415749 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

And you are a hysterical fear-monger, with an axe to grind.  Fuck you.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:34 | 415762 Kali
Kali's picture

And you are a moron.  A 16 yr old one with really bad acne and greasy hair.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:53 | 415813 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Get 'em Kali!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:28 | 415904 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Wasn't ZH once known for the quality of it's discourse?

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:20 | 416023 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Wasn't ZH once known for the quality of it's discourse?"

 

Yeah, but it's on a different course now.

 

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 14:43 | 417581 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

No it's not. The community has only grown. Go to the low-count financial posts and you'll see plenty of "financial" info if that's what you're looking for.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:20 | 416190 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Yes thats why we draw the finest retard this place up agents on the planet. We've killed several of them but they were the lowlings. We are working on the bosses now. The creme de la tard.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:14 | 415696 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Did anyone notice the Dow was up 200 points today?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:14 | 415697 AndItsGone
AndItsGone's picture

Preview of Obama's address tonight:

 

It's safe to visit the Gulf's pristine, white sand beaches. It's safe to eat tarballs and drink a tall, refreshing glass of crude oil. It's safe to breathe benzene and hydrogen sulfide at 1000x dangerous concentrations. It's better than safe to roll around in three million gallons of toxic, carcinogenic dispersants-- superpowers are way cool. So buy forty iPads, buy stocks, borrow $500,000 for a McMansion, let me be clear, trust me, etc

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:20 | 415718 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

WORD!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:43 | 415773 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

OK, clearly I'm an uncool Depends wearing old fart. Now that I have admitted this, would someone please explain to me what "WORD!" means?

Thanks in advance.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:47 | 415790 Kali
Kali's picture

CD, think of it as "Truth".

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:57 | 415963 Currently Smoki...
Currently Smoking Cannabis's picture

word up

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:09 | 415855 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

for all old farts and midaged farts:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=word

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:30 | 415906 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Thank you from an old fart.  Check out IMAX.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:24 | 416031 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Also equivalent to whenever someone likes a comment here and posts +1 or +(insert extremely big integral)

PS - my 'word' is not said in the gangsta way:)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:43 | 416250 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I thought it was complementary and I didn't even think about gangsta. But I've been skipping past your usage for months and I figured I'd better ask at some point.

Thanks.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:32 | 415751 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

He is from Hawaii, he likes black beaches. He is really comfortable with them. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:32 | 415756 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

"...but don't forget the sunscreen."

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:18 | 415713 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What price tag is hanging on the Everglades and the Outer Banks?  I gotta think that's worth a tad.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:22 | 416026 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

delete

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:20 | 415719 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Oh, hell, Tyler, why stop there?  Why not just call it a GILLION barrels a day?  Why not just claim that the losses are a number that cannot even be calculated??? 

This is just fucking grotesque...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:32 | 415754 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Gordon Freeman

Given that it occurred in 5000 feet of water and there are no known methods or apparatus for measuring the blow-out, one could make a rational argument that the losses are impossible to calculate accurately.  BP's willful negligence and outright lies are extremely grotesque.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:41 | 415778 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You said it shorter, better, with less emotion, and beat me to it. Nice.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 22:53 | 416377 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@MsC

That means a lot coming from you.  :)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:40 | 415775 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

What, that your life will not go on as you have known it? That we really fucked up big this time? That we are not omnipotent and have limits we just violated? That our government is so used to lying that they make it SOP and probably have marketing experts and formulas that they consult for how to handle situations like this? That you don't want to entertain getting your brain around this? That you can't be open to the idea that this just might be as bad as a comet hitting the earth and that the show has just gotten started?

Look, I don't claim to know the truth, so I have to stay open to it that this could only be fucking bad, or it could be an extinction event. Because they don't share what they know with us, they set it up so that we will speculate based on what we can know. 

I think it is possible that THE LOSSES CANNOT BE CALCULATED.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:21 | 416198 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya but it's safe to say it will be around what FDIC needs for the next couple months. LOL

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:24 | 415730 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Watch the preleude to Cap And Trade speech tonight at 8:00...I'm surprised they didn't make it a higher number just to really stick a fork in us.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjMTNPXYu-Y&NR=1

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:26 | 415737 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

If this hole was gushing something worth money, you'd think we'd be all over it....hang on a sec

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:46 | 415938 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Well, I am actually waiting for the Oil Spill Hollywood Disaster Movie so that I can bet on it in the Hollywood Index or whatever the fuck it is. /sarcasm off.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:30 | 415743 ratava
ratava's picture

wait till they cry uncle and declare

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:43 | 415781 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The Deepwater Horizon oil rig that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico was built in South Korea. It was operated by a Swiss company under contract to a British oil firm. Primary responsibility for safety and other inspections rested not with the U.S. government but with the Republic of the Marshall Islands — a tiny, impoverished nation in the Pacific Ocean.

This is reminiscent of Vietnam.  Maybe we're a powerful and wealthy society, but it doesn't ensure that we can actually control your fate.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:47 | 415941 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

"I love the smell of heavy oil in the morning!"

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:59 | 415829 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

We can pump the oil to the ice caps and torch it. This will melt the caps, raise the sea level. On paper it should be enough to drown the Marshall Island bastards that attacked our great, sovereign nation.

Screw N Korea and Iran, this is a fucking act of war !

 

 

 

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:05 | 415842 fuu
fuu's picture

We already nuked them 68 times. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Islands#Nuclear_tests_after_World_...

 

Not sure drowning would even faze them.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 22:10 | 416301 Muir
Muir's picture

Word!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 22:55 | 416382 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Well played, almost.  Full on belly laughed at that one!  Somehow, I think someone at a think tank actually has a power point to this effect.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:59 | 415970 Currently Smoki...
Currently Smoking Cannabis's picture

F*ck Marshal Law.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:34 | 415759 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Suggestion for a new poll:  What's the over/under on new jobs creation for the June NFP vs. the number of bbls. leaked per day. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:38 | 415772 Kali
Kali's picture

lol!  I'd like to see it for June 2012.  We may be missing a large portion of the need for employment.  Permanently.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:45 | 415786 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm considering a rickshaw business for 2012 (j/k for all the bulltard lurkers out there).

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:42 | 415766 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Tyler, since you seem to have the ear of Mr. Van Praag...Could you kindly ask him why a Goldman Employee would say "Suck It Fishes and Birdies!" in regards to the massive GoM short position taken the day before the Deep Horizon sank into the gulf?

 

 

"NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report) - In what is looming as another public relations predicament for Goldman Sachs, the banking giant admitted today that it made "a substantial financial bet against the Gulf of Mexico" one day before the sinking of an oil rig in that body of water. The new revelations came to light after government investigators turned up new emails from Goldman employee Fabrice "Fabulous Fab" Tourre in which he bragged to a girlfriend that the firm was taking a "big short" position on the Gulf. "One oil rig goes down and we're going to be rolling in dough," Mr. Tourre wrote in one email. "Suck it, fishies and birdies!"
The news about Goldman's bet against the Gulf comes on the heels of embarrassing revelations that the firm had taken a short position on Lindsay Lohan's acting career."

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:42 | 415779 Kali
Kali's picture

the sad thing is, if I didn't see the "Borowitz Report" tagline, I woulda believed it.  Think Enron energy traders and CA grannies.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:46 | 415788 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

indeed.  here's the direct link via huffpo:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-borowitz/goldman-sachs-reveals-it_b_5...

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:48 | 415797 Oquities
Oquities's picture

Kevin Costner's brother will save us.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:51 | 415803 wawawiwaa
wawawiwaa's picture

Hell of a well!!!!! They'd better get that sucker going soon if we all expect to be driving SUVs at 3 dollar gas!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 18:54 | 415816 londonhedge
londonhedge's picture

Re the second part of the post on BP counterparty risk, Morgan Stanley has significant (but perhaps not material) exposure to BP through a roundabout commodity handling deal with Ineos, one of the largest petrochemical businesses in the world.  The actual details are all private, but a HY analyst at Deutsche reminded about this a few days ago.  Ineos acquired BP's Innovene petrochemicals business in 2005 for around £5bn and set off alot of the commodity risk to MS via derivatives and commercial agreements.

The details aren't important.  The message is BP counterparty risk runs wide and deep - few will have even begun to chart the risk paths.

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:21 | 415884 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Market needs an excuse to sell off now.  Obama's tone will be grim and the MSM will hype it tomorrow for the "doomsday effect."

Everything is so well choreographed that it's sickening.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:23 | 415890 Florida Joe
Florida Joe's picture

With free flow dynamics at this site, maybe 60KBPD is a bit understated.

 

Check out BP's nearby Thunderhorse Platform, producing oil at 250KBPD.

 

http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9030433&contentId=7055435

 

There are some blowouts, such as a nat gas well that imploded in Turkmenistan (or one of the "stans"), burning since 1971. The hydrocarbon reservoirs can last quite some time. Then there is the problem with a ruptured casing (from excess pressures, or from the very few centerings to hold the concentric pipes in position, allowing them to move against, rub, or beat the wall of each other, the possibly fractured / fissured geology, etc.

 

And this is all a man-made catastophe IMO.  

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 20:17 | 416010 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I raised the following question a little farther up - Where are we at on Simmons claim that there might be a hole, several miles away from the riser, which is the real culprit?  I didn't hear him mention this on the clip.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:36 | 416233 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

BP assets domiciled in U.S. constitute roughly 25% of total assets.  BP is going to surrender U.S. assets and walk away from Gulf disaster.  If true, stock is a buy and world is disgusting.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 21:39 | 416240 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Read this oildrum post that endeavors to get to the bottom of what is going on in the Gulf: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

The poster, who sounds like he may know what he is talking about, concludes that: 'the magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens'...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 23:25 | 416426 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Thanks for the link. Sounds legit'.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 00:06 | 416482 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

The revised ZH number is 120K bbl/day

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/matt-simmons-revises-leak-estimate-1200...

According to previous metrics this is equivalent to approximately an Exxon Valdez catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico every 2 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill

[snip] "The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred in Prince William Sound, Alaska, on March 24, 1989, when the Exxon Valdez, an oil tanker bound for Long Beach, California, hit Prince William Sound's Bligh Reef and spilled an estimated minimum 10.8 million US gallons (40.9 million liters, or 250,000 barrels) of crude oil. "

Since April 20, 2010, the date of the rig disaster, this adds up to 28 Exxon Valdez oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico....and counting!

OilBPama... redefining false flag for a new green paradigm

http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-to-push-nightmare-carbon-tax-in-oval-o...

http://info-wars.org/2010/06/11/attorney-deepwater-horizon-managers-knew...

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 10:35 | 416960 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

The magnitude of this disaster only underscores the real cost of oil dependance in our society and the fact that the cost per barrel will continue to grow. No one can quantify the loss to the ecosystem, although everyone is talking compensation to humans directly effected. We can look forward to a greedfest of litigation to cash in on BP's huge equity.

We also need to be reminded that the costs of the invasion and occupation or Iraq was for the benefit of international oil companies, and represents a huge per barrel subsidy to the oil industry, who were running the US at the time of the Iraq invasion. The industry continues to exercise undue influence on US government policy.

There is only one course of action that will mitigate the true costs of this oil dependance and that is a mandated change to energy conservation, improved efficiency, greener fuels and technologies. The likelihood of such leadership coming from Congrass or Foxnews is small.. it must come from the people who are willing to start thinking outside the self imposed (and false) idealogical barriers promoted by the corporate oligarchs who are violently opposed to giving up their monopolistic profits.

 

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