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US Treasury Bloodbath Is Back: 30 Year Passes 4.50%, As 10 Year Prepares To Take Out 3.40%
Not much to say here: QE3 is in the works, as once the equity rally fizzles, mortgages are at 5.5%, and Americans realize that home prices just dropped by 15%, there will be a lot of very confused stares.
10 Year
30 Year:
The move is not all that surprising: BofA's Prya Misra has just released her Rates Forecast for 2011: she see the 10 Year at 4% and the 30 Year at 4.65%.
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Whoa! And to think I forgot to refinance my house!
You can afford to refi your house????? Our home has lost so much in value that we would have to bring a check to the table to close.
You're on ZH and you're still paying on an underwater mortgage? Voluntarily bailing out your bank, or fannie/freddie, or some vulture investor in private ABS, by paying way too much rent on that house while clinging to the pretense that you own it when you have negative equity?
Of course I know there are still lots of fools of your kind out there, but I didn't expect to find you on ZH.
Well that just gives me a nice warm feeling inside. The supply of future defaults may be bigger even than I'm expecting.
If he forces the rest of us to bail him out, how is he any better than the banks?
I hold a gun to my foreclosure for mortgage debt relief! Free House! Who is smiling now?
He is not the one applying the force, but rather the government who is giving the banks our tax dollars/debasing our dollars. He is simply defaulting on a contract, which is not illegal or immoral, but just business. Should he default, he will face consequences in that his credit will be ruined. That is not really a problem these days, though.
Here's the obvious answer to your query:
Because the banks knew damn full well when they got this idiot to sign a 30 year 120% LTV no money down, NINJA, Neg Am loan that the housing market was a bubble and that he was too much of a simpleton to understand that he'd never pay it back and never gain any "equity", all the while understanding that they, the bank, would necessarily be bailed out if too many simpletons defaulted at once . . .
while . . .
the simpleton didn't understand what he was getting into.
That is - the bank was guilty of fraud and naked avarice, and he was simply guilty of stupidity and gluttony.
So, if he chooses a legally permissible option and begs out of the contract, not only is he still BETTER than the bank and the Bernank, he actually is moving in the correct direction because he is letting go of the stupidity required to pay a monthly payment on an asset that he is renting for 140% of its actual monthly rental value while under the delusion that he "owns" the house, which is what I'm sure is the word next to the box he is checking on the 28% rate credit card application he is filling out at this moment in order to try to extend his personallized version of unsustainable modern U.S. living a few more months.
OK?
Enjoyable rant! Thanks
You know, it felt good. I thought it might be a decent one. You're welcome.
LoneCapitalist:
"If he forces the rest of us to bail him out, how is he any better than the banks?"
??? In what way is someone walking away from their mortgage "forcing us to bail him out"?
I'd be absolutely just giddy if the banks walked away from their mortgage holdings, and took the subsequent credit hits (i.e. bankruptcies in their case).
Well get giddy. They have, they did. They sold your mortgage and it's in 100 or 1000 pieces, breaking state property laws and no one can put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Only the crooked in court are foreclosing now-a-days.
Tell me - as a percentage of those that were "underwater on their mortgages" (i.e. all of them) - how many major banks have actually lost all their significant assets (the equivalent of walking away)?
Buzzard Beak,
Against the advice of our mortgage broker and unlike many others out there, we purchased a home that we could afford even during an economic downturn. We put down a hefty sum, have cash in the bank, metal in the attic and two additional houses paid in clear...one in the countryside with acreage. We can afford to sit & wait.
How u doin?
Are you still paying an underwater mortgage? That is the question.
If so, shame on you.
You know, I keep seeing this and . . . it causes me much cognitive dissonance. I believe we are underwater but I cannot bring myself to strategically default.
Something about personal integrity (must be that good old Protestant guilt) keeps me from taking action. Though I've studied it extensively.
And just who are you "defaulting" against? If you're in the MERS system the bank packaged and sold your mortgage in tranches to dozens or hundred of investors...they (the bank) don't own your mortgage...they've been payed...and now are playing you. The investors have no clear title to your house due to the broken recording...in fact it's doubtful the investors can even be identified.
My understanding is that in "recourse" States (i.e. States in which a lender can collect a deficiency against the borrower), borrowers enjoy interest rates lower than those available to borrowers in non-recourse States.
Therefore, if you're in a non-recourse State then you have been paying extra to compensate the lender for the risk that you may walk away without penalty. It's kind of like paying an insurance premium to compensate the insurer for the risk that you'll file a claim. Integrity/morality/guilt have nothing to do with this business decision, IMO.
Oh no, "put down a hefty sum" on a house during the bubble, huge huge huge mistake, that means you threw it away. And now you're throwing good money after bad. Should have short sold out of it a long time ago, and not even thought about buying till next year.
Wait all you want, the housing bubble will not come back. Land prices (which is what we're really talking about here) will shrink in real terms (adjusted for inflation) for at least the next decade, and by then you will have lost a bundle overpaying on that mortgage. You're still much better off short-selling out of it, renting, and putting the savings elsewhere.
I'm doing quite nicely, thank you, arbitraging between the distressed market and the subsidized "normal" market. I do not deal with short sales, by the way, as that is a milder variety of distress and thus less profitable than foreclosure. Staggering amounts of money being lost, mostly by whoever bought the CDS but also by the federal government through fannie/freddie and the banks that kept mortgages on their balance sheets. I can confirm first-hand that huge amounts of losses are being hidden by banks' holding foreclosed properties off the market. Typically exactly the ones that have dropped most in value. Even some of the private ABS pools are holding on to foreclosed properties, for reasons I can't figure out.
Not many home "buyers" really lost, least not in my state, as foreclosure is very slow here. Most "buyers" put very little money down during the bubble, or took it back out quickly. Their initial overpaying is usually more than compensated by years of not paying by the time they're evicted.
We're not even half way through the housing bubble implosion. In my state we're not even a quarter of the way through.
sorry, I meant "whoever bought the ABS", not CDS. acronym weary
Houses....You mean people actually buy those things to live in or something?
buzzard beak, agreed, there should be many more strategic defaulters than there are currently. if you are more than 10% underwater on your mortgage you should default immediately, it is clearly a positive NPV move.
buzzard beak
So, if you buy a house for shelter and a place to live, which is the only reason you should buy and the house loses value, you should dump it and say fuck them. I think you have been brain washed here at ZH. You need to get out more. And yes, brain washing goes both ways. The junks are welcome!!!!!!!!
Do I look like somebody who doesn't get out? Do I look like somebody who would be "brainwashed"? I feed on the carcasess of born losers like you every day.
I'm saying you're better off de jure renting that shelter for smaller monthly payments than de facto renting that shelter for larger monthly payments. If you are underwater you are de facto renting to own. You will not own anything until you are above water, and that is likely to be many years down the road, do your own math.
anyone who is more than 10% underwater and still paying their mortgage has clearly not run a simple NPV test - no way is it beneficial to pay the mortgage at that level of negative equity.
this is HIGHLY bullish for stocks!
Apparently - market doing quite nicely today, once again.
I hear Ben is peeing his pants and wants
to quit and go back to Princeton.
Good idea
When mortgage rates hit double digits, the banks and GSEs will be offering huge discounts to clear the 5% stuff off their books. This is going to be a sweet deal for people with substantial equity or cash.
"This is going to be a sweet deal for people with substantial equity or cash."
That group should be able to fill the Metrodome..............
or gold or silver if ye be foolish enough to part with it for paper. the 30 yr spiral signals the end is near. good time to be a helicopter pilot.
"Poseidon's Anchor" is rapidly sinking the treasury market. Check this out:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/buck-a.html
Good article, thanks. Now if we could just see the Anchor form on the equity charts.
Just got 4.2% on a 30yr fixed baby!
For once we perfectly timed the bottom.
What makes you think it's a bottom?
***Anything with credit attached to it will drop in price until people are sufficiently delevered. not enough interest in acquiring debt when *ownership risk* and related taxes necessarily rise. parents home purchased 30 years ago, 11% mortgage, 1100SQFT home down the street, acquired by another gentleman during the year 1935--- and the kicker--- mansion around the corner (the family used to own the whole block and were forced to develop and then sell all of it) the mansion around the corner is 18,000sqft sitting on 4 tax parcels. when deciding what do buy, Mr. Hastings (now deceased) acquired the 1100SQFT home instead---
THE HOMES WERE THE SAME PRICE--- BUT MR. HASTINGS DIDN'T WANT TO BEAR THE HEAT, TAXES, MAINTENANCE OR INSURANCE FOR THE HOME SO THIS HUGE ASSET SOLD FOR $5,000.00. THE SAME PRICE HE PAID FOR HIS 1100SQFT HOME.
Could this be shades of things to come? Maybe.
Lots of assets will inflate in price, real property won't be one of them until supply, demand and credit are rationalized.
Shawn A. Mesaros, Pamria, LLC
Yikes. 10 year looks like it's going to take out the 200.
50 going to cross the 100 just in time for a new year?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGXeXm0uMDo
No need to worry. Uncle Ben can raise rates in an instant... oh, wait. That would mean what? Slower growth! Whoops! catch 22, if I ever saw one!
Bloodbath this, slaughterhouse that, crash this, doom that. All the while the market is saying to these skeptics- BEND OVER.
Market? You mean the "market" where the Fed shops.
Bernanke bitchslaps the skeptics everyday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpHUFzV0exk
You mean the skeptics long the PM's?
I don't know what you mean. No-one here is short. We all just own gold and silver, and perhaps their miners.
Everyone knows you can't short in a market being gunned by a printing press. Why do you think we've had an arbitrarily large number of sequential weekly equity outflows?
I think short equities and neutral PM's is the way right now. Could change my mind on Gold/Silver but too many things askew for equities to stay up here. Support for SPY comes in at 122.5 and 117.5. Resistance is likely to be 127 if we have not seen it already. Will be very interesting to see what happens post FOMC. If no signs of more $$$ printing, we may see a hrd selloff. Range for rest of day = 122.5 - 125.5.
You are just full of ways to lose money, aren't you?
STAY AWAY FROM THE STOCK MARKET. THERE IS NO WAY TO PLAY WITHOUT LOSING PURCHASING POWER.
Why don't you set up some % return targets and dates to acheive by that would make you happy and I will provide the results to you. No need to use caps, I can see fine and soon so shall you.
Ok, I want a return that beats silver's gain with no counterparty risk.
Oh, you wanted a % return in fiat? That ain't happening. Look at Zimbabwe. Their markets went up tens of thousands of percent in any given year, but their purchasing power vanished.
'Skeptics'? Hey Bernank can say and do whatever he likes, I dont care, not in this stupid scam, its all his and good luck to him! He'll need it.
Yes, indeed. Ben (Dover Shalom Israel) Burnkrappy is taking it up the you know what this morning.
According to my estimates, the Fed has now lost $31 BILLION in T's... whoops! He's got some 'splainin to do!
The faster Bernank prints the more he's losing! FACT!
Bonds? Those are still around? I thought its all about stocks and POMO
No POMO today, so those called upon by BB and friends are selling treasuries to provide money to lift stocks and the "wealth effect" can continue.
Selling them to whom? None of this makes any sense.
The choice is hyperinflation by printing money or go on default on the debt. Unbelievable how much time it take for investors to realize that. Ofcourse you will go on default after the hyperinflation only the timepath is longer.
Yeah, really ain't tough to figure out.
Why do you think the govt isnt worried about adding another $1T to the deficit? They know it will never be paid back, and now they don't have to worry about selling the debt because they know Bernanke will buy it.
Right, has nothing to do with 'equities higher', no way to play equities without losing purchasing power its all just a damn illusion for the gulliable. Only 2 directions possible are blow out the currency by printing, or default. Everything else is pure fantasy.
30Y
Buy the bounce?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/30y_14.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Yield back-up proves there's no hope for BB to succeed. Things must remain as "goldilocks'ish" as possible in perpetuity. Ha!
QE2 and the Bernank now proven failures, yet all media reinforcing their confirmation it has all succeeded with flying colors.
Looks like Mr. Bernanke has to choose between killing the Euro, trashing the markets, or both. Time to play the "flight to safety" card before this gets out of hand.
100% agree and flight to safety is physical gold and silver.
'Flight to safety'- Whole lot of clothes, firearms, ammo, some PM's.
bondage game starting
As if we needed further evidence that the stock market is completely detached from reality, REIT's are screaming higher today. Makes a lot of sense.
Final mark up before the sale? (Wall St. Playbook play #1)
Or, thinking along similar lines, is the bond sell-off an orchestrated event designed to allow the Fed to buy at "better prices"?
Havenstein? Lol, I love the reference in the file address.
Hurrah for Weimar.
I believe that Prya's guesstimate is a bit conservative. I would put the 10yr closer to 4.5 and the 30 a lot closer to 5.
.. And the VIX is down another .57% to 17.45 - Is it time to buy some calls?
Ask Cramer about his BBY calls.
This is going to be GREAT for the real estate market in 2011!
/sarcasm off
And the market keeps going up.
Euro-land bonds flop around like a dying fish and Europe markets are up as well.
Investors are looking into the abyss and partying. What am I missing here?
sunny
you're not missing anything. these investors are playing in the volatility and all of them think that they will be among the first few to hit the exits when the time comes.
Yup - and the Dow is trying for 11,500...
DavidC
OK, I'm a history major but just trying to understand how this debt is piling up, how it's accounted for, and implications of rising debt and interest rates. Please look over the below and tell me if I've got it right or where I'm going wrong. If I read this I see we are spending 1/3 of all tax rev in 2015 on interest payments?
12/10/2010
Debt held by Public $9.3T
Intragov Holdings $4.6T
Total Debt $13.9T
1st column - Average interest rates paid on the total debt for the past 10yrs - (pulled from Treasury direct, based on Jan of each yr.)
2nd column - total Debt
3rd column - interest paid. '05 through '10 show public debt paid and intragov debt in parenthesis. I guess the US is like any good subprime interest only crackhead who doesn't even pay full interest but instead just adds it on the total?
I show very modest interest rate increases from '11-'15 coupled with the increasing debt. I know gov will only continue to pay the public portion (bout half that figure from '11-'15). But doesn't all that unpaid interest intragov debt keep piling up somewhere. BTW - anybody know where exactly all the unpaid interest on the Intragovermental holdings is accounted for??? I also think my interest rate assumptions look really conservative.
'01 - 6.62% - $5.8T
'02 - 5.70% - $6.2T
'03 - 5.06% - $6.8T
'04 - 4.51% - $7.4T
'05 - 4.55% - $7.9T - $174B ($181B)
'06 - 4.82% - $8.5 - $183B ($221B)
'07 - 5.04% - $9T - $194B ($239B)
'08 - 4.78% - $10T - $253B ($242B)
'09 - 3.8% - $12.3T - $170B ($189B)
'10 - 3.00% (Nov) - $14T - $167B ($150B?)
'11 - 3.5% - $15.5T $542B
'12 - 4% - $16.5T $660B
'13 - 4.5% - $17.5T $787B
'14 - 5% - $18.5T $925B
'15 - 5.5% - $19.5T $1,07T
"OK, I'm a history major but just trying to understand how this debt is piling up, how it's accounted for, and implications of rising debt and interest rates."
Read Reinhart and Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
All will be clear and understandable.
sunny
Agreed. 90% and you are screwed. We're there. I guess what I'm trying to understand is that the horizon that was a 2030 problem became a 2020 problem is now a 2015 problem and will ultimately be a...(drumroll) 2012 or 2013 collision?
How can something getting that close (like it was a big fucking comet circling the earth) draw no response? I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed what am I missing? Makes me think I must be the one who doesn't "get it"? Printing won't do it cause it only drives up inputs with no jobs, no wage increase, no real inflation. Can't grow our way out of it.
Can anybody make a credible argument for why folks shouldn't be running for the hills at this point?
I'll miss dancing with the stars.
The sheer overwhelming inertia of rows upon rows of mindless sheeple is not something to be underestimated. Or alternately, the one-eyed man in the land of the blind is almost always the first to hit the exit when a fire breaks out in a theater; where he then stands and waits, wondering where the rest of the people are, and as time passes without any uproar he begins to doubt his own sense.
They shouldn't run because:
1) Deficits don't matter -Dick Cheney
2) Stocks are gunning higher -Robo, Harry
3) US Treasuries are the ultimate safe heaven -Boomer consensus, CNBC
/sarc off
Cheney never said that bumpkin.
JLee: You're only partially correct. Here's what was actually said...
Cheney to Treasury: "Deficits don't matter"
Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.
O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency.
O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired.
The vice president's office had no immediate comment, but John Snow, who replaced O'Neill, insisted that deficits "do matter" to the administration.
Source: [X-ref O'Neill] Adam Entous, Reuters, on AOL News Jan 11, 2004
"Can anybody make a credible argument for why folks shouldn't be running for the hills at this point?"
If you feel the major threat to civilization as we know it is the potential repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell", if you think your politicians should be doing everything they can to protect the sanctity of marriage, if you are concerned that Farve's not getting to 300 consecutive games, hey, what's a few percentage points of bonds.
sunny
I never understood the fascination with Don't Ask Don't Tell. So you get to proclaim your sexuality before you're shipped off to Afghanistan to get shot at by the Taliban. I guess everything is better now.
BTW - anybody know where exactly all the unpaid interest on the Intragovermental holdings is accounted for???
It isn't accounted for. You can't loan money to yourself. There is no social security surplus. The money in "interest" paid to the social security fund is paid for with general tax revenues from the Treasury department. As the outlays for social security are greater than the cash intake, the fund is cash negative and makes up the difference from cash inputs from the Treasury. In the years the SSTF was running a cash surplus, they would "loan" the money to the Treasury Department. But since the Treasury doesn't have a source of income other than taxation, the only way the Treasury can "pay off" the loan is through taxation or raising debt.
I know Bruce Krasting would feel differently, but my general retort is "how does the left hand loan the right hand money?"
Either way, that money is planned on by the recipients and whether it is payed through higher taxes or cut through austerity, it's all GDP negative. The party and fun of spending money now that will be owed later is over. It's now later.
No worries, Bernanke will buy it all in next week's POMO.
Me thinks that China is finally selling their bonds...
BINGO!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMRo5XCKddQ
I refinanced my house at 4.25% a few months back...just in the nick of time. Sometimes being lucky beats being smart. But hey...I own a boatload of silver too...so maybe I'm not as stupid as my in-laws think who have berated me for years about buying silver...
speaking of mortgages jim cramer called an end to housing market down turn june 30, 2009
and bernankula declared that the mortgage crisis would be contained at 200 billion usd - and that it was not at all a crisis...
lysenkoism lives
Better buy a tent, seems the only asset that will keep its value.
Dont forget nice firearms and stockpiles of ammo. About the only things of any real value.
ya know ya got a point about tents...we have tent cities going up nationwide...buy stock in tent makers...
Can you hear the Cosmic Giggle? Thousands of people slept in tents in front of real estate offices in order to be first in line to bid on properties that would let them retire rich.
A couple of years later, they're back in the tents again, this time semi-permanently, wondering what happened.
This leads right to the investment theory of Gold ownership.
The Three Phases of Every Secular Bull Market in Gold – By Gary Rosenthal
http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/
No problem, when all else fails, just slam the dollar.
Only 22 years left until the current downtrend in real estate bottoms according to Martin Armstrong's cycle work - higher mortgage rates will be one of the aspects of this long decline - will we get back to double-digit mortgage rates? probably - at the bottom, people with cash to spend will have a field day buying real estate
as long as you are on the right side of the real estate debacle it provides lots of interesting progress - a nearby condo just dropped their asking price from $579K to $532K - this is the same unit that came on the market in 2006 at $1.4 mil - it didn't sell at $1.4 mil but that's what the delusional builder thought it was worth - watching another nearby condo currently for rent - started asking $2600 about a month ago - just dropped to $2500 - rental value is maybe $2200 but houses are available in the same area for that price and this is the worst time of the year to try to find tenants - my guess is that someone is trying to cover a $500K mortgage - each time I walk past this unit I wonder when the short sale will occur
That's sorta the plan for the wifey and myself - wait 5-7 years for real estate and the stock market to base, transfer gold/silver and cash into mainly rental properties + dividend stocks and semi-retire.
From what I've seen, 22 years seems a bit long - more like 10 at the most. 22 would get old, waiting to pull the trigger on everything. Even without appreciation, just a steady base to buy rentals would be ok. Hopefully rates will be nice and high by then since we will be buying in cash and that usually does the trick to bottom out the market.
Martin hasn't published his methodology for the real estate cycle - he just showed a chart with peak in 2006 and trough in 2032 - I assume part of his method takes into account demographics - Boomer downsizing into coffins and urns will have a huge effect on asset values - from a bubble perspective, it takes a full generation before humans will return to the once-bubbly asset category after it pops - peak in 2006, 26 years for a 'generation' to pass gets us to 2032 - some aspects that we can count on in the current downtrend:
- Boomers downsizing into coffins and urns
- unwind of several hundred trillion in real estate related derivatives
- excess for-sale real estate (currently about 2 years worth on the MLS with who knows how much unlisted)
- excess shadow for-sale real estate (10 years worth? who knows)
- excess inventory but builders continue to build
- glut of high-rise condos in most major cities
- rising interest rates
- increasing reluctance of banks to initiate mortgage loans (Fannie and Freddie currently about 97% of the market for new loans)
- increasing unemployment rate
- increasing duration of unemployment once the job is lost
all-in-all, the future of real estate values looks pretty grim for years to come
This leads right to the investment theory of Gold ownership.
The Three Phases of Every Secular Bull Market in Gold – By Gary Rosenthal
http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/
for now, the equity market is not concerned with Housing or Unemployment, those have been structural accepted and we are moving on - not saying that's fair or right.
'The equity market' AKA The Bernank.
I am getting scared if this continues in Bond land. If stocks follow Bonds down and only Gold goes up, I will be on an edge. Not a good sign.
SCOOP the POOP! Er, I mean buy da dips! LOL!
This type of un-orderly decline wreaks havoc on the Mortgage mkts and MBS/ CDS.?
Imagine being a Banker and setting Mtg rates in all this?
There goes gold back over $1400. Silver's not far to $30...
nothing like buying TBT a year too early...then again i bought plenty of silver nice and early as well
So we've had perpetual domestic equity outflows and now a global bond selloff. Does anybody know where's the money going?
Probably into underground bunkers I'd guess.
Trading ammo!
I need some help with this.
TTBOMK, JPM cannot withstand a big hike in rates because of swap exposure.
http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2009/0804.html
Anbody else thinking they may have to herd the sheep back into the treasury pen?
Hence Assange and his secret file... drop the bomb, tank the market and scare everyone back into the "safety" of treasuries..
IMO a long shot, but I won't rule anything out these days...
'Herd the sheep BACK into Treasuries'?
Who the hell owns Treasuries? I dont know anyone.
Of course you wouldn't. Nor do most here, I doubt anyone here would buy sovreign debt (unless it was Singapore's or some other stable-currency country).
The point is, JPM has huge exposure to rising interest rate risk, so to keep rates down, the Fed can either:
A) Buy Treasuries (despite that their buying is encouraging foreigners to dump them, driving rates up, increasing the chance of system collapse).
B) Scare people into buying them for them.
Again, I may need help here, anybody who wants to step in and correct me if I'm wrong, feel free.
The Bernank is in deep shit here, certainly no doubt about that.
Good point
Boy, this whole QE thing - what was The Ben Bernank thinking?
Seriously?
Is history now setting up The Bernank to have his mugshot next to to this Wikipedia entry?:
Catastrophic failureBut, but, Truthinsunshine The Bernank plan QE2 has been CONFIRMED 'the correct path and a success' except for Hoenig the lone 'confirmed freak' dissenter!
This guy - whose article I JUST discovered this a.m., hit the nail on the head about Bernank - and this was written in JULY OF 2008:
Bernanke's Complete and Utter FailureBest part of the article in your sig... the Comments section. FOOLs talking about buying fannie/freddie at $10. What a bargain! Talk about catching a knife, falling at Mach 10! Jesus!
History will record quite the opposite. Warren Buffet is now on record and same with Bernanke- "NO DOUBLE-DIP".
Ben also said the same thing in the fall of November 2009 although many of you continue to conviently ignore it.
How exactly is Ben failing? All this money printing yet hardly any inflation at all.
You do realize that Hyper-Inflation is not a possiblity in a credit based economy. People use credit cards for more than 50% of purchases. They do not pay in physical currency. THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT THE DOLLAR NOR WHAT IS BACKING IT!
Good luck convincing enough of the American population that a 100-note has the same intrinsic value as a 1-note. I have tried. People are not convinced. They would rather take a 100 dollar Benjamin than 1 ounce of Gold bullion
Shut the hell up troll.
tell me when the "event" is coming.
I am looking at the fundamentals. Very bullish.
TARP worked. The American public were wrong!
'Fundamentals are bullish' according to you? Stop the money printing, turn off the churn machines, and raise rates from 0% to just 2%, go ahead, try it lets see what happens.
Riddle me this:
If a country could just buy it's own debt with no consequences, then why haven't all countries been doing this all along?
Answer: Because they can't.
Here's an "event" for you: Mass dumping of treasuries causing interest rates to soar.
Followed by massive printing of dollars to keep the banks solvent and the Fed government's lights on.
Followed by massive dumping of dollars by the rest of the world, resulting in a hyperinflationary collapse.
FYI, the US gov't can force it's citizens to use the USD via "fiat" (command), but THEY CAN'T VERY WELL FORCE THE REST OF THE WORLD TO USE IT NOW, CAN THEY?!
BTW, you know you're a complete fucking idiot, right?
Again, stop feeding the troll. He's baiting you.
GBD... I'll give you two Bejamins per oz, keep em coming... sucka...
Do the same anywhere in the Middle East and report back.
After a bad case of the shitts, in the middle of Saudi Arabia, a benjamin might be worth more than a "1oz gold bullion..."
In that case, he makes a valid point.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bidet_top.jpg
Dude, they eat with their right hands for a reason... Think about it..
Ok the smart money is anticipating a robust recovery in the first quarter. Maybe that is healthy and a good sign that bonds are backing up a bit?
Theyre not very smart then if thats their conclusion.
More like the smart money is positioning for a may 6th redux?
This feels eerily like april, where despite the crap brewing in europe and pending the closing of of the Fed spigot, equities just rolled higher.
Wont be surprised if flash crash 2.0 is scheduled for the day Ron Paul conducts his first hearing.
Whoa! This just came across my screen from Reuters:
"A Clean Shaven Ben Bernanke, Wearing Nothing But a Princeton Necktie, Was Just Seen Running Out of the Federal Reserve Building Screaming "I Am A Derivative!"
Impecible timing on my part, must say. I went long T's back last year, went heavy in Feb, and again in April. Held through Sept. Glad I sold out according to plan- I said "T's will take a major beating in the coming months as hyperinflation creeps up..."
You're kidding, right?
BTW, all those "profits" from the bailout of the bankkks, has been wiped out and then some in just a few minutes of T's bloodbath. Whao
Remember, you will only have 15 minutes in which to act when Ben pushes the button to contain inflation.
Yea good point.
Heh, yeah.
@convolved
lol -- that's less warning than an ICBM. Knowing Bernanke, he'll push the button at 1:59 on a Friday afternoon.
All under control !
- The Fed
-The Fed
this augurs badly; the 1930s big crash featured a bond crash to go with the stock selloff...this bears watching
+1
It was a lot easier to understand in a world without derivatives. But there was a 2 year "flight to quality" in which bonds rose after stocks crashed. Then bonds crashed hard.
http://www.denninger.net/images/usbond29a.gif
Poor Rosie and his vacuous deflation theme and buy long term Treasury thesis, which I said I'd take the other side in a heartbeat--since it was and will continue to be the true no-brainer trade over the next few years.
It amazes me that guy gets to fly all over the world because people want to hear him. And no we will hear crickets from him on this, rigth? Except to go SIRP on dividend paying utilities? What a total sucker.