USD Short Covering, EUR Capitulation Ending, Silver Spec Longs At Two Year Lows
As we expected, the recent rout in the EUR and the spike in the USD have largely kicked out all marginal speculative elements. As the first chart below indicates, as of May 17 net non-commercial spec EUR contracts dropped by 19.8k from 61.4k to 41.6k, nearly a third of the current bullish bet. And as that was happening, USD shorts were covering rapidly, confirmed by the weekly change from 4,563 contracts short to just 1,270, the most bullish position in the USD since January 2011, and roughly where it was back in October 2010.
And probably more important, now that speculative fervor is all the talk, the silver net long positioning by non-commercials, contrary to conventional wisdom, is not only at an all time high, nor was it recently, but instead in the last week plunged to a level last seen back in April 2009. Net silver exposure has dropped by almost 60% since its recent peak in February (40,937 contracts), and at this point it seems all speculators have left the party. The new base is now being rebuilt based on much firmer hands.
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