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USD Update

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/19/2010 08:35 -0400

Nic Lenoir

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Following yesterday's market observation, the USD has moved relatively convincingly and is now sitting on the resistances we indicated would be tested. AUDSD is sitting on the hourly channel support as well as on the neckline of the H&S. EURUSD is on the 76.4% retracement from yesterday's rally. The dollar index is on the neckline of the inverted H&S. Acceleration from here will mean this move is for real and there will be significant follow through (I see the next target in AUDUSD at 0.9560, at least 2%). However yesterday's rally can be broken down as an impulse in terms of Elliott structure and the EURUSD in particular does not look impulsive on the way down, so we would advise trailing stops to protect P&L and watch for a break to confirm the market has turned and last Friday's hammer on the Dollar Index has sealed the lows for now.

As always, I lay it out for you to play it out,

Nic

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Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:38 | 660788 Ivanovich

I am forced to admit, you did call this rather well.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:42 | 660791 99er

Charts

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/dollar.html

Others http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

I know, I know...chicken scratch. Good luck, folks.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:14 | 660870 jdrose1985

Saw your channel yesterday

Start the mad dash from risk as the carry traders pile over each other to make the exit.

Dollars priced in crude is your daddy *looking at Benny and the Inkjets*

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:39 | 660793 LoneStarHog

Who gives a SHIT, Nic! What am I supposed to do? Run out and buy WORTHLESS FRNs?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:49 | 660814 SheepDog-One

I'd never buy it, I'm trying to get rid of my US Gubmint FRN's as we speak, as if they were hazardous waste!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:06 | 660837 43 Steelie

If you look at gold right now, this is why Nic's analysis always comes in handy. It's not to serve as entry points to get into FRNs but to help you with the best exit points out of them!

He's said it numerous times that he is long-term super bearish on the USD. Nic has the story right here. Ignore him at your own peril, especially when he is one of the ONLY people in the world telling you it's not a terrible idea to hold the dollar right now.

Run with the crowd or against it.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 10:05 | 661040 99er

I believe Nic's a chick.

http://big-trading.blogspot.com/

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 10:38 | 661136 43 Steelie

Oops, that makes this even better. I'm guessing she likes the ambiguity if she is going with "Nic"

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:43 | 660803 Alcoholic Nativ...

Hey when does that "Inside Job" documentary come out? That shit shoulda been released by now. The 0day is slackin.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:54 | 661010 Missing_Link

Already opened, but with limited releases. Wonder why.

http://www.insidejob.com/

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:47 | 660810 SheepDog-One

Its all worthless garbage, but I hope extra Zombie dust gets sprinkled on the USD and causes it to rise, screwing Bernankes insane stock pumping fest. Flash crash the hell out of everything! Lets light this crap candle.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 08:52 | 660819 iota

PBOC must have heard you.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:07 | 660855 Cdad

lolololololol! Thanks dog. As I was watching the world come apart this morning, I needed a good laugh.

Man, the crap candle looks lit to me...

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:00 | 660830 newstreet

Quick, quick, everyone to the otherside of the boat.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:05 | 660847 iota

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:06 | 660851 Saxxon

+1 newstreet

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:07 | 660856 pamriallc

and of course when everyone runs for the hills it (whatever *it* is) gets better. has human nature ever been different?

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:09 | 660858 Hooter Shaker

I'm heavy into PM's. Pass the tums, please...

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:16 | 660883 jdrose1985

Grab cash at the nearest bounce.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 10:46 | 661164 Hooter Shaker

No, I'm in for the long haul. I will ride out the bumps.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 11:07 | 661253 tmosley

Worry not. A stronger Yuan is bullish for gold prices. People are only flooding into the dollar because of the Yuan-dollar link.

As the price in Yuan falls, gold hungry Chinese will buy, buy, buy. Their currency link does nothing but give us lazy white folks more time to buy gold with our crappy currency.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 12:59 | 661690 fuu

A pull back was expected and needed so Denninger would shut up about parabolic moves.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:23 | 660897 cycjyf

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Tue, 10/19/2010 - 13:02 | 661705 fuu

DIAF spammer bot.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:25 | 660916 unum mountaineer

whack-a-mole on PM's early this morning.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:34 | 660932 Dr. No

I dont believe I am alone in breathing a sigh of relief watching gold get wacked. Finally this may give an opportunity to buy addtional physical gold and silver. It has been a nail bitting month watching prices, looking for more buy points.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:33 | 660947 Thunder Dome

Go to sleep now little gold bugs.

You were fools to pay $1350+/oz.

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 11:09 | 661262 tmosley

Right, because we have a strong dollar policy, gold will fall forever. Really, markets always move in a straight line, and any reversal will always continue in the same direction forever. A single day's price action will always project out into the future forever. Gold to $0!

Tue, 10/19/2010 - 09:47 | 660990 Silverhog