From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Following yesterday's market observation, the USD has moved relatively convincingly and is now sitting on the resistances we indicated would be tested. AUDSD is sitting on the hourly channel support as well as on the neckline of the H&S. EURUSD is on the 76.4% retracement from yesterday's rally. The dollar index is on the neckline of the inverted H&S. Acceleration from here will mean this move is for real and there will be significant follow through (I see the next target in AUDUSD at 0.9560, at least 2%). However yesterday's rally can be broken down as an impulse in terms of Elliott structure and the EURUSD in particular does not look impulsive on the way down, so we would advise trailing stops to protect P&L and watch for a break to confirm the market has turned and last Friday's hammer on the Dollar Index has sealed the lows for now.
As always, I lay it out for you to play it out,