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One can only watch this devastation with horror. USDJPY drops to 76. Unbelievable. Many Wall Street FX desks are blowing up right at this moment.
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so it's yen to infinity and the dollar gets the big blue swirly. Does that mean gold catches a better bid?
yes as in YES!!!
sunny
Actually just the opposite. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Dollar-Japanese-Yen-Poised-fxcm-1180438...
Short/medium turn, expect PM weakness.
And don't get all pissy about this, it's probably the last best buying opportunity.
I don't get pissy about anything from yahoo finance.
lol
Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't realize the source wasn't up to your standards.
Does this make it more acceptable? http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_options_forecast/2011/...
Idiot.
Come on, it WAS funny.
If you take some time, carefully clean the sand out of that cavernous vagina of yours, you just might, possibly, find your long lost sense of humor. Maybe.
Now that's really funny.
alright you all. Group hug.
78.14 right now
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jDQZyzQrbU
I am Chumbawamba.
Oh shit, I didn't realize how punny this is until after I posted it.
I amuse myself.
I am Chumbawamba.
+1
Laugh it up.
Hope you planned ahead.
Howdy Col. I've disagreed with some your stuff, but what's with all
the junking. Obviously things are too intense for some people to handle.
The junks you got will be out of pocket right about now and for the next week or so.
"Would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?"
Yes I would kent.
The Simpsons comfort me in times of zombie apocalypse.
Me too
Controlled Nuclear fission is a demanding mistress.
Mistresses by nature are out of control...
I offer you a half eaten donut and thank you for your support for all my years at the Nuclear Power Plant. I didn't know so many people wanted to see me in action for so long.
no disrespect homer, but i'm a southpark guy
That wasn't Duff beer I just saw you drink..
"MELTDOWN is one of those fearful media terms, id like to call it an unrequested fission surplus"
I think that's actually happening in Bahrain.
Only if you came in to this debacle short the Yen.
If you came in short the yen against the dollar with both leverage and size, you have become goo already, yes indeedy.
"Dig up stupid"
Yes We Can
I dont give a rats a... about what happens to the Japanese stock market, but a strong Yen ought to be in Japan's long term interest as it will minimize their re-construction costs and even if they see a reduction in export related jobs, they should hopefully see jobs in re-construction. Of course since when did CB's care about a country's LT interests ?
Of course, we continue to bear the brunt of meany beany's mild inflation babble in the US !!
A strong yen will make energy and cement imports cheaper, but as a major manufacturing nation, Japan can source much of its rebuilding supplies domestically. But the strong yen is like a death ray to exporters. How can Japanese auto manufacturers compete, with the yen at 77 to the dollar? It's a horror show for them and many other exporters.
It seems perverse, that a country which was already deflationary is getting a further unwelcome deflationary jolt via out-of-control currency appreciation. This is the exact opposite of 'inflating your debts away.' Now the debt burden of the world's most indebted country is becoming heavier in real terms, just as it prepares to go on an epic deficit spending spree. No wonder default swaps on Japanese sovereign debt are reflecting higher risk.
The San Francisco earthquake in 1906 proved to be quite deflationary, leading to the Panic of 1907 (which in turn provided the impetus to create the Federal Reserve). One could imagine a similar deflationary impulse in Japan ... but followed by such reckless money printing and deficit spending that it pops interest rates and puts debt service on an exponential path to default, whether the Bank of Japan tries to inflate its way out or not.
It's horrible to contemplate that this natural disaster could be the tipping point which produces the first sovereign debt crisis in a major developed economy.
Well put. Imagine becoming the world's third largest economy, even though you had to import most of your energy and raw material inputs. Then an earthquake-tsunami-nuke disaster happens, and the only policy that will let you rebuild (strong yen) will destroy your exporters. This whole mess is starting to have the feel of an unstoppable force meeting an immoveable object.
is it possible that Japan is at a survival mode that cannot think about exporting at all? all they have to think is to rebuild their infrastructure first. therefore, currency exchange rate will be in their favor if JPY is higher. and that will kill the Nikkie for sure.
holy fuck man, is this it? Are we in the SHTF moad
Not quite yet. We need at least one more straw for SHTF territory. Preferably a black swan event here in the US.
Didn't mean to junk your comment. Apologies.
Just an fyi, you can un-junk by clicking on it again...just in case you go on a junk rampage or your mouse goes wild.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYxvVe9y5NQ
I'm afraid it may be here.
YES MAN!!! QUICK, GET ALL YOUR GOLD AND HIDE UNDER THE STAIRS!
you mean silver
...dont forget your beans.
Whoops.
Someone just stepped in and is defending at the very least 78..maybe 78.20...and they are loosing.
"defending at the very least 78"
BOJ?
LOL...not unbelievable at all.
Tell us again Tim that Japan will not sell their treasuries.
edit; read the chart wrong. huh?
If BOJ buys JGBs (and sells USTs), where will we see our interest rates tomorrow? Is FED complicit?
Not if they still wish to enjoy the US Army's protection vs a Chinese invasion.
If by "protection" you mean mafia-style, then, yes.
Oh, absolutely, it's a complete racket, but better the devil you know.
and like the US can afford to give up on Japan?
'fraid the US is over a barrel on this one. It will take whatever Japan chooses to give it without question at the taxpayers expense...
Only one country is screwed by US debt and that is the US.
Looks like the US will take out its debt ceiling sooner than we thought...
Stand by for some explosive money creation...
Jesus. There are going to be a few margin calls tonight.
EXACTLY!!!! We have unprecedented money printing causing further malinvestment and we have at minimum some liquidity problems.
European desks screwed if best traders are asleep. Granted most books move 24/day.
Oh, phone calls waking those traders up right now as G-7 calls for a conference call among the finance ministers tonight. Something major afoot - and I don't just mean our military people being sent into radiation's way in Japan. Since when do we do that? They know more (or are willing to take those risks to find out more) and suspect things are much worse at the reactors and of threat to US and US interests. Just saying.
There's no way Euro traders didn't spend half their day yesterday hedging Japanese exposure.
Of course, they would have hedged the exposure with eachother (and American banks), so they - and we - are still fucked.
looks like we are headed into 76 territory...bam blowing right through. Are we witnessing live FX desk the collapse of a country?
WRONG. It may collapse the bankers, insurers and the fx traders but it will help their economy.
without any historical precedent to help, it will be interesting to see at what number the buyers decide to step in for a long term bottom. I don't think we're near it yet, but who knows really? its a competition of fiats so pricing is tough. PPP is in the 90s though, I think, so the Yen has been rich for a while by that measure.
Very concerning
nicely understated
This is without it being one of the worst possible outcomes (so far) ..... if it leads to a critical meltdown then I would very alarmed.
No need to panic. Just act swiftly and prudently.
dollar swiss below 0.90
making good money on my June EUR/USD short; that I described here. The Treasury Bond Contract I reccommended yesterday is about $1000/contract out of the money; short it right here if you didn't already; give it another 1/2 point to run before you bag it; these flights to quality don't last long, and the underlying is bearish.
Clears throat ....you heard the 89 handle here first.... ( only the finest Cubans thank you )
Cuban ladies. Fine indeed.
Hope Ben has an unlimited texting plan on his BlackBerry.
that's a golf clap and chuckle right there.
All Ben's planning is based on 'unlimited
I'm not exactly getting it.
Japan is wasted, they will need to rebuild. Therefore, they will sell various assets, including US treasuries. THe Bank of Japan will print a lot to stabilize domestic markets.
Then why does the USDJPY go bidless? What is the market pricing in that I cannot see?
neutrons
+U235
ouch...pulls out clump of hair with relative ease.
i just spit my teeth out all over my keyboard because of your comment.
Default is what is being priced in. The dollar is still king and after having 2 years now of dollar destruction eventually Ben will need to tighten either to tame commodities or metals.
Whose default? Excuse my stupidity, but why should Japan default when they are selling assets?
Maybe I am stupid. My guess is that this is a result of eventual expectations that the Japanese will need to sell treasuries and this will mean not only are they not participating but selling so eventually Bernanke will have to tighten to attract bidders.
Japan is already well over their heads in debt and if they cannot raise the cash by selling treasuries they will have to print to repay debt which I believe will lead to a stronger dollar.Maybe Japan will have to restructure and haircuts will be necessary. We have to be talking over a trillion in damage not counting financial damages if Tokyo has to be evacuated.
A Japan debt default could start a cascade of defaults.
This indeed, may be it.
And if Japan sells treasuries, then China sells treasuries as well, followed by the oil exporters and the Cayman Islands..................... Well I suppose there's always Britain as buyer of last resort.
"Well I suppose there's always Britain as buyer of last resort."
Providing we (the FRB) loan them the money to buy UST's with......
Maybe it goes like this:
When there's a crisis, people, and institutions, liquidate assets to build their supply of local currency. You can't take diamonds and gold coins to the supermarket (not yet anyway). The local currency is what is accepted. In this case, everybody is dumping assets and reaching for Jap Yen causing a huge demand for that currency. It's panic buying and will fade into the sunset in a week or so.
Closing the markets, putting the brakes on, intervention by Bof J and global central banks is all quite appropriate to stop a financial meltdown. Of course, all that takes place AFTER the elites have vacated the premisies.
IMHO. That's all.
"In this case, everybody is dumping assets and reaching for Jap Yen causing a huge demand for that currency."
Sorry about the stupid question - but I am clueless when it comes to FX. What you are describing is an internal demand, not external (foreign), so it seems to me what would happen is that the sale of assets would be deflationary as the supply of Yen becomes exhausted locally. What I thought those FX charts were showing that there was little to none (OK, none actually) demand from holders of USD to purchase JPY.
@Misterc
At the moment they are repatriating yen. That means that they are buying Yen with dollars, euro, Austr/dollars, NZ/dollars etc. that strengthens the Yen. At the same time they are digitally printing additional yen.
However, Bernanke's digitizer is faster and therefore, they can not devalue as fast.
Expect Gold and Silver to bounce to the moon after the stock downward trend is done.
Unless of course we have total market melt down. 5% chance for the foreseeable future.
If this continues, it will kill the Japanese tourism industry.... err... never mind...
but on the bright side, all of the hollywood starlets will positively glow...
wait for it...
in the dark!
Sorry to repeat this, but I will admit I'm not a currency expert:
If the Yen drops against the Banana Ben Buck, does this mean the Nikkei index goes up? After all, whenever the dollar dropped, the US stock markets shot up. Therefore, shouldn't Japan's gov't be happy about this?
May mean that they are dumping all foreign assets they have and pulling that money back home.
As i see it the Yen is climbing vs the dollar. That is the problem. Up until Friday Japan wanted you to get more yen for each dollar. Now you are getting fewer yen per dollar.
In that context the Nikkei should be just about dead right now.
Not that I am forex trader/expert/nor did i stay at a holiday Inn Express last night.
whoops.. some folks have told me I'm backward.. sorry about that (and thanks for informing me).. doh!
Assets are being sold as Yen are in high demand by those who need to pay for things in Yen. Treasuries are just one of the assets being sold. PM's may be another but that will surely be temporary. This high demand for Yen will strengthen the Yen and if, I understand it correctly, could lead to a bank holiday.
My understanding is that store shelves are empty all around Japan.. velocity of money has gone ballistic.
The BOJ wants a weaker YEN to help their exporters, which is something Benny has been going for as well. In the short run for Japan though, a stronger Yen should help them with their imports over the coming months.
Also honest questions are better than Harry Wangers (tho Harry's good for a laugh) so no need to apologize
They are an export economy (well they import a lot too, but they actually make and sell things unlike us) so their currency appreciated is very costly for them.
76.91.
Looks like Robot's love life!
And now they tell us this shit,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42099554
Shocking really
Waiting on BOJ intervention in 3,2,1.....
LMAO
BOJ could have easily stepped in and injected more Yen for low-risk assets. Maybe all that's left to sell is higher-risk assets and the BOJ doesn't want any?
Other than that, it makes me wonder if the BOJ simply wants to see some volatility like this to bring down players that are exposed. [Edit: to increase the supply of dead bodies for the rest of the wolves to feed on. A liquidity pump merely staves off starvation. A dead body provides actual nourishment.]
dukascopy trading feed starts and stops every few seconds...forex meltdown
I'm getting a drink and more popcorn...
How about that 76 handle???
This is streaming, screaming headline news on the Japanese TVs. Maybe the housewives are reeling in their positions?
I felt a lot like this in 1964 when JFK was murdered, and again on 9/11/2001.
Zeitgeist = time ghost or spirit of the age
Welcome to a "new" age ushered in by a radioactive/financial meltdown.
Prayers for Japan and the Japanese.
I felt a lot like this in 1964 when JFK was murdered
I felt a lot like this when I heard the Germans had bombed Pearl Harbor.
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? darn, no wonder everyone is so upset; I didn't even know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
Umm.... Mr. IQ.
Ummm..... JFK was shot in 1963. Git the joke?
"Forget it; he's on a roll..."
(btw, don't junk him; just point and laugh...)
You know you can click on the EDIT button and correct that little mistake if you want to.
Or not.
usdchf dropping too ... like a rock
And 2 years from now no one will watch the congressional hearings on the derivatives that blew up the world. Most americans will not be able to afford cable or their next meal.
Most Americans won't understand what happened. Actually most of the people on the planet won't understand what happened.
I'm long xtranormal.
Agreed.
If this shit really causes the end of the world as we know it, well then, I will go hunting for the highly intelligent yellow bellied bankster. When the world ceases to have law and order...wow, that's already happened here in the good ol' US of A...
I'd say there will be law and order. Just not as we know it.
After that. The deluge.
All depends on how Japanese society responds to this. Assuming the worst at Fukushima.
Having said that the derivates market will be chaotic.
The whole reason for QE1 QE2 was to stop an unravelling.
Not sure the Bernake can stop that now.
Weasel. The other yellow meat.
Buy the fucking dip!
Here we go again, low was 76.40.
Wow...put an order in to buy USD just for shits as it crossed 78...by the time i typed it in and hit send it was 77.50.
Pure gamble on a very small order...but my god, I didn't even care I was down 50 pips in 2 seconds I was in awe.....amazing
You are fucking nuts to trade this. Levered?
Id guess 50:1..
yes. haha
out with 84 pip gain....don't have the balls to hang onto that when I can't watch it.....so i guess hopefully that shows I'm not clinically insane at least.
Going to be an interesting night!
I guess people would rather have radioactive money than dollars.
I don't get this - this is deflation for Japan, right ? The USDJPY should go the other way if they were have an currency crisis.
BBC business reporter Mark Gregory says: "You would expect the currency of a country in crisis to fall in value. But the opposite has happened in Japan. During trading on Wednesday, a dollar was briefly worth less than 80 yen for the first time in 16 years. It is driven by the belief that Japanese firms will need to repatriate some of their vast overseas holdings to pay for reconstruction. This would mean swapping other currencies for yen, pushing the yen higher. This is bad news, though, for Japanese exporters. A high yen means their goods become less competitive in foreign markets just as they are reeling from the impact of an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear emergency. A similar rise in the yen took place after the Kobe earthquake in 1995. Indeed, that was the last time the Japanese currency was valued near the current level."
THEY are not having a currency crisis, WE ARE!
Yes Sir. Look at CHF to USD
Down below 0.90
Summats afoot for sure
The play here then is to go long USDJPY right about now. I think I'm going to take a dip in that pool.
Yes. Am waiting to see how the nuclear thing pans out, and i dont typically touch FX, but i will be looking to gain exposure one way or another to a long USDJPY play.
1 CHF = 1.11736 USD
1 USD = 0.894965 CHF
whoa!
BOJ will be around 6.20
they won't touch right now
Bank run in Japan as everyone leaves the country IMO.
Agreed. As rumors of potential market closure there become widespread there will be a rush to cash.
The problem is that the Yen is one of the three legs of the wobbly table that is the global currency market. If it crumbles, the global financial ramficiations will be substantial.
+1
++1
sounds right.
make it a hat trick +++1
Nah, we'll just restart the Yen carry trade.
Lather, rinse, repeat...
[Sarcasm off]
Yes. This simple explanation makes a lot of sense. Capital flight.
Volatility is going to go crazy, as various bits of the global financial machine seize up.
Really wonder if its institutions or households getting their cash in hand here. Japan unhooking from global capital?
Last time it cost 33 billion for BOJ to intervene for 200+ points ( i lost a lot that time)
This time they will need to move at least 400-500 pips. Wander how much will take.
I'm sorry Dave. I can't let you do that.
What's the problem Hal?
Japan now saying radiation levels "Extremely High" acc. CNN
It's just repeating the Energy Sec'y remarks to Congress, based on old info. Doesn't mean those levels aren't still high now, but that report is yesterday's news (literally).
The situation on the ground changes so rapidly that it is very difficult to stay appraised of what is actually going on there. Many MSM outlets repeat old news when they don't have anything new, and wind up making the entire situation more confusing.
Well Carrytrade YEN is unwinding faster than carrytrade 2(USDollar.) Everything is getting poured out to get YEN for the carrytrade unwind. A fucking BLOODBATH.
Carrytrade 2 killed us in 2008 when the DXY went to like 91.
This is huge and deflationary for JAPAN with the destruction of money supply, velocity and asset value.
Gold, silver, stocks, etfs,dollars, euros and more. For YEN
Don't forget the AUD carry trade. Talk about overcrowded the AUD is heading for a big spank spanky now that their sugar daddy is KO'd
Yes. The AUD is getting slammed. A few days ago, it was well above parity with the USD. Now it's $0.975 ..