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The Yen will be the next shoe to drop in the currency wars, after the Brit 'ish Pound (pound as in weight, as in Lira, as in Larr) Sterling gets the wrong end of the stick (ok Euro, now go sit in the corner). The Yen will run to maybe 95, but not much higher, as the Doelarr's QE Dos will begin shortly. The only currencies that will show real strength this year will be NZD, AUD, and CAD. Their collective strength will peter out in 2011, as they face the same problems as every other currency (huge debt, poor markets ie housing). Either way, btw, gold to crush all markets here on out.
Advise to BOJ: You want inflation right?
Get together with the Japanese heavy industries and bid contracts overseas on the cheap now. Once the Yen weakens, start repatriating money.
Rince and repeat.
2nd advise to BOJ
Bid overseas contracts with deferred payments.
Go and read : http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf
Then you will understand that Greece is a starter and the main course is...
A yummy reference to food! soylient green? haha
Does anybody have a clue as to why the piece-o-shit small caps are almost making new highs? Many of these (garbage) companies don't even have earnings, pay no dividends, and are not growing. What the fuck gives?
Sector rotation my friend. A couple of big movers in equities parked some money in small caps (probably because no one else was) then the herd detected and followed.
Most of the herd has no idea or awareness of the intermarket/macro forces playing out.
I would not be surprised if telecoms suddenly became a favorite to park money for a day or two.
This market is more bi-polar than my x-girlfriend.
bubblemania...rut hit a high at 650 ish today. just a symptom of the hot money syndrome.....ben bubbles bernanke at work. market ready to take is my read.
Deadhead, anon, thank you both for your insight. I get the feeling this bitch (RUT) is going to go down faster than a Harlem Hooker once the rout starts. Might take my first position of the year, some TWM.
You know what the fuck gives; these were the things hit the hardest so if the perception is that we are early in a cycle everyone wants to own the trashiest high beta stuff that offers the most upside tomorrow, even though it isn't at all something you'd want to own long-term.
However, there are some small caps (and especially micro caps) that offer really compelling value here.
Best to stay anon when pimping illiquid small cap stocks one already has a fat long position in, but take a look at CLCT, TIII, and DORM. You might find them compelling. (Yes, I'm talking my own book, but at least it's an interesting book.)
One question for Mr. Nic:
Japan has been trying unsuccessfully to manufacture inflation for 20 years. If they haven't been able to do it yet, what makes you think they can do it now? The reason I ask is because you make it sound like it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to happen, probably because you have already put on the trade. On the other hand, maybe it's like it is with my dog. If he chases enough bitches he eventually catches one, never mind so infrequently that when he does he knows not what to do with her. He usually just ends up sniffing and when she growls at him he backs down. Think of that as the equivalent of a stop loss.
All I know is that I love it when you guys talk like you're technical traders and blather on about RSI divergence but then tie it back to some fundamental thing like inflation and some manipulation thing like QE. I'm a trader Nicster, and I don't give a shit about inflation or QE if I'm trading on a technical basis, so again I gotta ask you:
1. Is it because you've already put on the trade and you're trying to convince yourself that it's a good trade?
2. Is it based on the dog chases bitch theory with the dog being the BOJ and the bitch being inflation and if so, what in the fuck does that have to do with RSI divergence?
I'm 100% serious. You're my senior Behavioral Finance project. I can hear the gears grinding, but I think they might need oiling.
I think its based on the "please look the other way" theory. In other words, the deflationary maelstrom preparing to suck down everything between Hokkaido and Okinawa is now an unstoppable force and the BOJ is painfully aware of it.
So rather than utter pathetically useless comments about "deflation fighting", they're asking us all to face the other direction and focus on fantasy-land, where inflation targets are achievable goals.
Perhaps when you are enabled to post noteworthy postings like Nic and all the TD's your remarks will be more worthy than those above you have posted. Lose the F*** word and accept that technical analysis is not infallable. Some, if not all of the best traders use a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis. Its foolish to ignore either one, just as you are.
Very nice View
Bery bad view
i am very bullish JPY. first and foremost japans overall balancesheet is better than US unlike common belief of 200% due to different accounting issues.. secondly , JPY is less of a reserve currency IE less part of its fate being in the hand of Chinese like AMERICA.. public debt in the US is balooning now unlike japan but only the fact that it is a reserve currency and after being undervalued last year USD is rallying , but the next currency to drop post EUR and GBP is the DOLLAR and it will fall against: JPY GOLD and OIL... none of the USDJPY bulls I am sure can not explain why USDJPY is down here- because they dont understand it- and they cant see why it will go lower
Currently usd/jpy trading two big handles down, than the above mentioned reversal patterns, which were not even validated via strict textbook technical patterns and such....
I do agree with the author`s hunch though...price action will seldom show us its` hand and for those who can successfully interpret the market alphabet (ticker) will gain handsomely for absolutely insane risk:reward targets with funnymentals actually backing up the idea behind the whole position trade.
For all you yen bears, beware the Japanese fiscal year end repatriation shenanigans. This, combined with extreme consensus the other way, makes me think we see Y83 before eventually softening big time.
Also, watch China. If RMB creeps higher, that's definitely going to provide midterm tailwinds for JPY.
Longer term, doom. That I can agree with.
melt up because nothing else to buy...period
I am pretty sure dxy has topped (81.4).....maybe after it moves to 66 we get some resistence, but it is pretty much downhill from here........let the final cascade commence........
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