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And as soon as some treasuries get sold, does Ben go shopping and short the shorts?
This is gonna be BIG! This has all the makings of the 100 Megaton variety.
I keep telling the inflationists that they are right, but not yet! We are in for a double dip, and the dynamics of deflation are going to reassert themselves in the short term.
The people going gold-crazy right now are committing the investor mistake of acting short term on the basis of very long term thinking. We won't see inflation until the real recovery happens and the fed finds itself unable to vacuum up all the liquidity they've spewed everywhere.
"We won't see inflation until the real recovery happens"
I like how Jim Sinclair puts it..."Hyperinflation is NOT an economic event, it is a currency event"
"The people going gold-crazy right now are committing the investor mistake of acting short term on the basis of very long term thinking."
thats assuming there ever will be a recovery
There will be eventually. Eventually the boomers will die off, the pension liabilities will either disappear, be inflated away, or default. etc...
But I do not expect to see an actually good economy for quite a while. An anemic economy with structurally high unemployment punctuated by recessions is the new normal.
or that the recovery is in the terms of what we expect i.e. no new currency or some other shenanigan
and since the gov is preparing for martial law (see Obama's last executive order - http://yophat.blogspot.com/2010/01/executive-order-fema-governors.html) all bets are just bets at the table!
Confirms the carry-trade theory doesn't it.
On another front, I am paying close attention to commodity prices. Oil has dropped again and is not below $70 a barrel for Brent March delivery. All of this is due, IMHO, to the Euro scare. Seriously, where would you put money these days. Clearly the dollar is the lesser of several evils.
So much for improved exports.
Oil is way overpriced....demand has fallen off a cliff (refineries at 80's levels).....Saudi needs to take another 4 million b/d of production off the table or we need to bomb Iran in order to keep prices elevated.
Filled the strategic reserve in on Dec 27....I've heard rumors China's reserves are nearly full as well as Japan's....
lmfao at longs
Thank God I put everything I own into REITs. They never go down. <snark>
Yeah, I wouldn't want to be long right now... Or have invested long in John Paulson's new Gold hedge fund:
Wow, lost 14% in one month? Annualize that and you get...
WAIT, I forgot, someone tell him to not worry, as Gold is really just a store of value, so even if it goes down it... Doesn't matter. What is 14% of $32 billion when you have 'peace of mind'...
Won't a rising dollar have the side effect of killing our precious snowflake the housing market? Aren't house prices basically propped up in nominal terms by liquidity (a.k.a. inflation local to that market)?
not including banks holding inventory, Fed repressing rates, etc etc etc
Housing is set for another major collapse this year! Especially if interest rates shoot up due to debt rollovers!
The biggest beneficiaries from this deflationary round are the USD-- and US Treasuries.
Timmy and Ben have been waiting for pieces of Europe (and China) to crumble. Now that it's finally happening, there's a window beginning to open that will result in a global flight to quality.
This is EXACTLY what TPTBs were hoping to see-- they are not likely to prop the equity markets, either. They want the opportunity to fill the bucket with low rate, long duration notes. It's coming... they just don't need to mess it up by putting things like Agency libabilites off balance sheet. Call it a "Come to Papa" moment.
Once we get past the Spring season, Benron will be back in full reflation mode. Why? Because I think there are still a few more bullets left in the chamber... and we probably need the market prop to keep confidence from going totally in the sh$tter.
So do you think this is a buying opportunity for $CDN, $EUR, GLD, etc.?
Not now. But there will be later this year. The longer term trend for USD is down, imo. I'll be adding to $CDN and GLD down the road... as I had before the last reflation trade. At some point, the reflation trade will explode into something more special-- but not this round.
I'm not touching $EUR... I actually think things may get worse there than here in the US. Bring back the DM, and maybe we can talk. :)
andy look at the ETF outflows (over the last 2 weeks) on these precious metals and commodity ETF's.massive.
U.S. reserach note from a firm covering 44 prescious metal ETF's, AUM of $57.3B, saw $680m of outflows yesterday.
would someone who is much more versed in trading and balance sheets then i myself am, take a look at autozone and tell me how anyone could justify a stock price of 154.61? I would greatly enjoy to hear how it could possible be worth that much, being in auto parts advanced seems like the better managed/better balance sheet to me.
But won't these unemployed people need an iPad to day trade while hospitalized? AAPL - Buy Buy Buy
I am sitting her thinking that we are on our way to retest 666 within 90 days. Why? 1) Nobody I know trusts his or her " investment advisor" anymore. 2) Nobody I know wants to be the biggest loser in the eyes of his or her boss/spouse twice in the last 24 months, thus nobody trusts oneself anymore. 3) All equity market exit ramps are clearly marked and greased by the US Treasury.
Tyler, the huge volume on both the $23 and $24 calls (March and Jan respectively) all came in at or just above the bid. These were sell orders. I think they could be booking profits from putting on this trade last fall.
i was more along the line of its eddie lampert and his boyz at GS
i bet CRAMER LOVES AZO
and well through 1050 on spx......
there are days when I get glimmers of hope for the sheeple.
Not sure why you would:
"However, all polling on federal spending and deficits must be viewed with the recognition that only 35% of voters realize that the majority of federal spending goes to just defense, Social Security and Medicare."
Typical histrionics, you are citing as heartening a poll that rejects Keynesian economics by people that don't even know what they are talking about?
In other news, 82.3% of the public said they would never eat a Yuca french fry, however one must realize that of those polled, only 32% new what a Yuca french fry was.
Excellent, and keep using the word 'sheeple', it really enhances your credibility.
He who writes the check makes the rules....with gov writing more payroll checks than private now...say adios to voter independence!
I find reading articles enhances credibility.
Those polled were not asked if "they support Keynesian economics". Those polled were asked on their support for tenets of Keynesian economic policies. It seems a majority of people understand that deficits are the result of the unwillingness of politicians to lower government spending. Also, a majority seem to understand that deficits are harmful and that the deficit should be lowered.
I find that knowing something about economics helps too.
First off I would recommend knowing what some of the tenets of Keynesian economics are:
Then re-visit this overly-simplistic poll and let me know if me asking someone 'do you support a lower deficit' could conceivably be construed as a complete refutation of Keynesian economics.
Last I checked, the bulk of the debt and deficits are due to items NOT related to the attempt at a counter-cyclical combat of the business cycle - AGAIN which are defense, social security, and medicare.
Ask people if they would like to cut all three of those and I bet this poll changes drastically.
But like I said, nice histrionics though.
I do know economics. And yes, construing "do you support a lower deficit" as a refutation of Keynesian economics is correct. End of story. But you could go ahead and read the link you posted which said "But Keynesians believe that, because prices are somewhat rigid, fluctuations in any component of spending—consumption, investment, or government expenditures—cause output to fluctuate. If government spending increases, for example, and all other components of spending remain constant, then output will increase." So asking someone the simple questions of "do you support a lower deficit" and "do increased government deficits cause harm" and "should the government lower the deficit by lowering spending" is a refutation of a key tenet (and central tenet) of Keynesianism.
There is such a thing as military Keynesianism, so check again about the defense thing. And last I checked, these wars the US fights aren't too popular. I don't have a poll. I'm just guessing. Google it.
As for Social Security and Medicare, it might help if that poll question included an accural accounting perspective and not the just cash accounting garbage the US government has been throwing out thus far.
I have a sense that Gold could reach down into the high 8's just to beat the piss out of some of the weak holders before hard core buying should resume.
How do you know it's not hedge ?
Here's how I call it.
Dow at 6660 by Jan 1st, 2011.
Dollar at 93.
Gold at $925 and rising.
Jobless at 14% by new, %29 by old (depression era measures).
Inflation becoming a serious problem.
buy the dips
get roasted too
Those UUP March calls were closed....
It's beginning to look a lot like.....Prechter!
Is this the mother of all carry trades unwinding as Roubini predicted...?
Look at the Eur/Dxy and ow it matches the SPX. I looked at the 2-2:30 PM interval and they match. Do we realy need the VIX?
I was beginning to think my Mar 23 calls were going to expire worthless. I bought them in December and I thought I would tally up another loss at trying to short this market
As a euro buyer of gold last year averaging 700 euros a ounce I ain't selling any of my philharmonics but I am worried about my silver maple leafs as I think Industrial production will fall off a second cliff this year.
Waiting for Platinum to crash to near $1000 but I have no idea where it will be in euros or heaven forbid in punts !
What ever happened to the dollar haters???
Time to buy EUR
Way back when...
Pump Gold, Dump Gold, Buy Dollar
From way back when...for those that can remember...
Pump Gold, Dump Gold, Buy Dollar...
Now, begin to sell the dollar and get ready, not yet, to go long small caps..
Well done CharlesB.
USD rally continues, as forecast several months ago.
USD weekly chart is now bullish.
Vice versa for EURO.
The DOW/SP500 downtrend commenced as forecast and the USD rally I forecast several months ago is just getting going.
The recent equities counter trend rally has finished and the March 2009 bear market rally is over. The dollar, crude oil and copper charts have been giving bearish warnings for stocks for months. My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007* The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
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