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Van Hoisington's Latest Observations On The "Growth Recession"

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Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:35 | 799398 kalum
kalum's picture

Hello 3 years of unemployment benefits.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:38 | 799401 Bear
Bear's picture

Maybe thirty years.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:40 | 799471 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

It's hard to live on 10 ounces of silver a week!

 

Also, I watched a video with Taz on MSNBC, and Nader too.. Nader quoted that if you adjust minimum wage for 1968 to today it is less than half.  I was wondering if anyone could confirm that and speculate as well, I'll try and do the numbers myself but I've been designing a microprocessor for about 9 hours straight and my head might explode at any time :).

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 09:28 | 799947 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Socialistic models work fine untill the money runs out. And now that the banks got their 12 trillion dollar wellfare checks, there's no more money.

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 12:44 | 800101 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

I agree.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:59 | 800049 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

The Minneapolis Fed has an inflation calculator on its home page.  http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

What is a dollar worth?

Directions: Enter years as 4 digits (i.e. 1913) through 2010. Enter dollar amount without commas or $ sign in box on first line. Click Calculate button to compute dollar amount shown on second line.

If in (year), I bought goods or services for $ then in (year), the same goods or services would cost $.                                                                                                                                                                            The extension to wages fits.  If my earnings in XXXX were YYYY, comparable price level adjusted wages would be ZZZZ.  Mixes in the basket of goods (substitution), and hedeonic and quality adjustments not considered.  Afterall, a gallon of milk in 1968 isn't as good as a gallon of modern milk.  Similarly, beans, rice, cheese are vastly improved over the years.  Shelter now includes granite counter-tops, cable hook-ups in every room, carpets are stain-free, etc., etc.
Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:11 | 799588 voltaic
voltaic's picture

The extension does not allow for three years of benefits, since the extension still allows for a maximum of 99 weeks in most states. Also since the BLS measure of the unemployment rate is going down in some states, such as NY, those state maximums will be less than 99 weeks. 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 13:44 | 800192 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Since the incept of the U.S. *Industrial Economy* collapse that started in the 70s, the perp skool predators have been working OT to keep the *illusion* of *properity* alive.

A chicken/chiclet in every pot, a credit card in every pocket, a home loan for every collective of suckers (i.e. families).

Unemployment insurance for the afflicted!

Rule numero uno in mass herding (mind control = The Illusion) divide and conquer by keeping the sheeple angry and focused on self-preservation.

Moreover, once women were placed into positions of *leadership* it became easy -- Women ALWAYS place familia numero uno, their country a distant 2nd, 3rd, or worse...

The Founding Fathers placed the Nation numero uno, even above their own families.

The WISE understand there is no -0- way of keeping HUMAN NATURE in check without an ethical/moral RULE OF LAW.

No way in hell that could ever happen again with this immoral/debauched collective of huddled masses...they are so dumbed-down-to-sucumb they cheer the destruction of their own prosperity, and that of their progeny.

In 2008, the Fraud St./DoC kabal began looting the U.S. Treasury direct to deposit, and nary a .GOV regulator raised his parasitical head.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:36 | 799400 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Hosington and Hunt's theories about velocity of money made a lot of sense until I discovered Dancing With the Stars.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:39 | 799402 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Lemmings are comforted.

Davos Annual Meeting 2010 - CNBC The Next Global Crisis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBMyzrbA9Jg

 

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:40 | 799406 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Just informing the site moderators, ZH has become painfully slow these past few days. Taking 40+ seconds to load a page etc...

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:01 | 799409 sbenard
sbenard's picture

FELLOW ZH-ers, PLEASE HELP! THOSE WHO KNOW BONDS:

My 80-yr old mother has a bunch of investment-grade corporate bonds. She has them in a trust account at Morgan Stanley. Her investment advisor there keeps telling her to sit tight on them despite rising interest rates and a bond bloodbath in recents weeks.

Can anyone tell me how I can determine the market value of these bonds? I have the cusip #s, dates, values, etc. I'm hoping there might be a website where I can plug the cusips in or the various bond data and it will compute for me the current market values of those bonds.

I'm am grateful for any assitance or suggestions you can offer! Thank you!

P.S. I have an Texas Instrument BAII Plus Professional calculator, but I've never used it for bonds. I think I have an HP calc around too, if that one is better.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 22:37 | 799438 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Finra.org has market data for actual transactions for bonds - size and price of trade. I'm on my iCrap right now so can't give the specific link. I'll update later if I can. I think they have a market data page and then you select bonds and then you can search by cusip.

http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter/Default.aspx

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:22 | 799455 eskin1
eskin1's picture

You can try the following link as well:

http://www.tvmcalcs.com/calculators/baiiplus/baiiplus_page1

I used that link to learn how to use the calculator when studying for my CFA. You basically will need the future value, number of years to redemption, annual cashflows and the current yields - which you can find either through your account or just through Google or Yahoo finance. Good luck!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 20:53 | 799417 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Good commentary.  I only disagree with his observation of inflation and real interest rates.  CPI & PPI my ass.  The conditions for inflation are upon us and will get worse: food, copper, cotton, oil etc.  Plus soaring labor costs in China are starting to drive up the cost of the massive imported goods we rely on.  In my opinion these higher costs will either be passed on to end-markets or squeeze corporate profits; probably a combination of the two.  Hello Stagflation!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:51 | 799496 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

Yeah, I looked at that also. In what alternate universe does he thinks that inflation is a 1%? Perhaps if you don't eat or use any forms of energy, or wheat, cotton, coffee, oats, corn, lumber, OJ, copper...

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:19 | 799452 Destrier
Destrier's picture

If you believe that the world economy is still over levered, then the recent upturn in rates will bite hard, bringing about yet another slowdown. This should prompt another flight to quality rally in long Treasuries.  I"m with Van and Lacy, bitchez.....

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:47 | 799470 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

be long or just be out i guess. but treasuires are quality tho?..idk . things fall apart in this piece in the bond yeild section imho.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 21:49 | 799492 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

Ph.D..sigh..CPI..sigh..can't price anything...can't bring myself to believe a centrally planned stat line

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 22:34 | 799548 doggis
doggis's picture

a growth recession - come frickin ON.......damn i feel like i am eating CRAZY pills here........ our 'growth' is due to the federal gov't taking over and spending 12% plus of the economy....... a spending spree that is unsustainable..... ....let me guess what happens to the economy once that spending level drops - oh yeah , REALITY!!!!

lets keep priming the command and control pump and dumping out that inventory boys - growth my ass!!

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:47 | 799613 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

It's a sad commentary that a 12% or so GDP deficit is necesary to result in 2% or so GDP growth. Just imagine what the outcome would be if attempts were made to limit the deficit to say 6%.  A death spiral.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:35 | 800027 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

You're right if it were done via tax hikes.  But if it were done by stopping the war machine and stopping payments to Medicare/aid fraudsters, U of Phoenix-type "colleges", etc., and if the Fed refused to monetize the remaining deficit, then a thousand zillion flowers could bloom.  As it stands we're eally ucked.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 22:47 | 799562 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys have read enough comments now to KNOW why CPI is low and correct.

Housing.  What % of YOUR monthly budget is housing and did it rise by 10% last year?

Answer: No.  And because it is such a large % of your budget it drags down all the other things for a composite result of . . . a very low number.

You already know this.  Stop deceiving yourself.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 14:17 | 800247 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

When housing costs were skyrocketing I didn't see it reflected in the inflation rate.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:22 | 799594 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

Inflation is an increase in cost of living.  Or it always has been.  I now see all sorts of lengthy presentation about what it *really* means, but I don't see any evidence that what it *really* means translates to cost of living.  Isn't cost of living the only significance to inflation? 

I think folks need to get it together when considering every piece of this specific discussion. (Talk about housing, but not about food) How about we talk about putting ALL necessary goods in that basket and stop playing shell games. Let's stop talking about what it "really" means and what you experience through your own experiences.  Let's make a conscious decision to not drink the koolaid and have an all-inclusive discussion on the topic and not pick and choose what to include and what not to. All can agree, those on a fixed income are boondoggled. 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:32 | 799602 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, food is rising.  So are clothes.  So is fuel.

THEY ARE NOT EQUAL PROPORTIONS OF THE MONTHLY BUDGET.

Housing swamps them out.  This is not rocket science.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 00:09 | 799615 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

so where does the money to pay for all these things come from? income sources right? jobs? what's that doing? I guess you believe the "official" unemployment numbers right...or that mortgage payments are being made on time, month on month? food is rising, fuel is rising. clothing has not risen YET in imo. you can go to http://www.josbank.com/menswear/shop/Home_11001_10050?source=gooogle&key... to see what I mean.

In your antfarm analogy, you miss the point. All CB's are engaging in this hide the salami game..right from the same playbook. In the end the average individual is fucked over either way.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch-david-einhorn-makes-mockery-one-m...

take meyer on this one and I'll know everything I need to in regards to this discussion. you are right...this is not rocket science at all. GL.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 10:56 | 799999 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Isn't 'hide the salami' a euphemism for having sex?

 

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:24 | 799596 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

Observation #1.  The female participation rate stalled out a few years ago so this is essentially the first recession in recent times that has not had to fight this headwind.  Toss in baby boomer early  retirements and you will not see a recovery in overall participation rate, period.  It is now structural.

 

Observation #2.  Thank Nixon for the continuance of the great recession.  Bernake is pushing on a rope since the make up of GDP these days means an increase of stimulus means an increase in imports from China in particular.  All would have been nice if Richard had kept them in the dark ages instead of rolling out the carpet.  Sink all container ships and the world will be right again.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 23:56 | 799618 Clinteastwood
Clinteastwood's picture

Hey Mac (and all),

Check out this female participation stimulus:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJuMBdaqIw

Do you ever feel like a plastic bag
Drifting through the wind
Wanting to start again

Do you ever feel, feel so paper-thin
Like a house of cards
One blow from caving in

Do you ever feel already buried deep
Six feet under
Screams but no one seems to hear a thing

Do you know that there's still a chance for you
Cause there's a spark in you

You just gotta ignite the light and let it shine
Just own the night
Like the Fourth of July

'Cause baby, you're a firework
Come on let your colors burst
Make 'em go "Aah, aah, aah!"
You're gonna leave them all in awe, awe, awe

Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
It's always been inside of you, you, you
And now it's time to let it through

Cause baby you're a firework
Come on show 'em what you're worth
Make 'em go "Aah, aah, aah!"
As you shoot across the sky-y-y

You don't have to feel like a wasted space
You're original, cannot be replaced
If you only knew what the future holds
After a hurricane comes a rainbow

Maybe a reason why all the doors are closed
So you could open one that leads you to the perfect road

Like a lightning bolt, your heart will glow
And when it's time you'll know

You just gotta ignite the light and let it shine
Just own the night
Like the Fourth of July

Cause baby you're a firework
Come on show 'em what your worth
Make 'em go "Aah, aah, aah!"
As you shoot across the sky-y-y

Baby you're a firework
Come on let your colors burst
Make 'em go "Aah, aah, aah!"
You're gonna leave them all in awe, awe, awe

Boom, boom, boom
Even brighter than the moon, moon, moon
It's always been inside of you, you, you
And now it's time to let it through

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:03 | 800005 Nikki
Nikki's picture

Although you tried to use dark humor to cover it, what you said is essentially true. The global wage arbitrage battle has wiped out the lower and much of the middle class. It is so much more than just factory jobs. The Bernak's masters hope for a bubble bursting in China and dollar debasement will create enough reasons to close the gap and rebiuild here. He is of course, wrong again.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 01:00 | 799669 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

growth recession - said like a true politician....are you going to serve beer with that pretzel logic the next time?

there is absolutely no validity to the gdp construct - an invention by a dissident russian accepted more for its intellectual fascination than for its relation to reality...furthermore there is no legitimacy to the way the fake construct is measured....

if you want a macro factor with which to navel gaze take a look at gdi which is more dismal yet. john wiliams hasn't shown gdp growth since 2000 except for 1-2 quarters.....

you can't measure gdp - you can only imply it through indirect measures...thus it is not scientific - it is more economic fraud dependent upon handling of the implicit factors creating it.....

and comparing economic series over time to predict future direction of other series is voodoo economics at its best....how many times has the definition of unemployment and inflation been changed over the past 40 years? not all of the series are updated....hence analysis done on them is hokum...

america has two polarized economies....that of the top quintile where unemployment is quite low and the other 4 quintiles where unemployment is quite high....the income disparities are most pronounced between the two sets...

furthermore, the jobless recovery is a fact of internationalization where international firms derive revenue and income overseas to the point where corporate growth and profits has absolutely no bearing to domestic conditions....this is also why some people bemoan the ever perpetual rise of the stock market as irrational....it is not irrational even though it is rather pricey....the stock market at this point simply reflects the price warping of interest rates....

what a complete crock....

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 06:16 | 799860 zhandax
zhandax's picture

I will agree with your conclusion and you covered some of the high spots of why but you hit bone when you brought in America having two polarized economies.  The corporatocracy (plutocracy, oligarchy, choose your poison), has made it acceptable to outsource, resort to a temp labor force, to cut every corner to hit an earnings projection.  These harlots are simply earnings streams for wall street to trade and fodder for the M&A mill (in better times).  They add little social value to the equation, have a market-driven incentive to renege on any prior pension agreements, represent the worst of the concentration of power, and are ripe for the axe of antitrust action.

Then you have US small businesses; the traditional workhorse of the economy and the creator of the majority of real jobs.  My hat is off to these heroes with the caveat that I will not be joining them in the coming year.  It appears they may get a reprieve from an onerous tax hike for the next couple of years but there is not any way a sane person would risk any serious amount of capital on a new venture in which success was not virtually guaranteed (read this as a government backstop and the government is presently only interested in backstopping the asswipes with lobbyists).

This second group are ostensibly why wall street exists...to funnel capital to new ventures; but it is far more profitable to scalp ticks on the established than to actually make a market in new equities.  As long as wall street is allowed to forgo their primary responsibility in the interest of making a fast easy buck there will be no improvement in the core main-street metrics.  This is why both these mega-corporations and wall street need to be dismantled now.

Sadly, the only way I see this happening is systemic collapse.  Fortunately, that appears to be inevitable within six years at most.

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 06:12 | 799866 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

The Ponzi must go on...

 


"Unsuspecting shoppers who take out store cards and then forget about them could be hit with surprise charges, thanks to a change in policy from Britain's largest store card operator.

Santander, which owns cards operated by House of Fraser, Laura Ashley, Debenhams and many more, has written to its customers with a variety of changes to terms and conditions. These include the right to charge a £10 fee if customers do not use the cards for six months. It also has the right to cancel a card if customers do not use it within a similar period." 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/8194968/Store-card-holders-to-face-charges-if-they-dont-spend.html

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 06:30 | 799870 zhandax
zhandax's picture

I had a Macys card since about 1985.  Two years ago, I received a notice that Citi had bought their CC portfolio.  I immedately shredded the card and have refused all further offers.  Interesting that the store personel are unaware of this and are surprised when I tell them this is why I will not have one of their cards.

Most sheep simply think it is their lot to be sheared....

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:01 | 800003 TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Well, if the Lord didn't want them sheared, he would not have made them sheep, now would he?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:35 | 800026 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Hallelujah!

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 17:45 | 800490 zhandax
zhandax's picture

OK, have it your way..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3U2mipXJ1Q

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 07:37 | 799894 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

"A growth recession is characterized as an economy where GDP grows but the unemployment rate also moves higher."

This is a self-correcting relationship over time, unless of course the US economy implodes. What will happen as bond yields rise and unemployment fails to improve is that we will enter a period of what was called, in the Ford administration, "stagflation" where inflation becomes pernicious and growth and employment remains stagnant. This is almost as bad as deflation and the Japanese disease. These are grim times we are heading toward.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 11:41 | 800033 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Is your avatar's bra made of denim?

If not, and that's actually (allegedly) you, who's going to take your comments seriously?  Something about a booby trap to distract a guy . . .

Meanwhile I do agree w your comment, FWIW.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 16:02 | 800349 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

My avatar is an Italian model sporting a special push-me-up bra for plunging neckline dresses. Those are her real headlights.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 12:00 | 800057 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I will thank zerohedge for their great insight in front running capital flows of the Fed and primary dealers.  Much of the "wealth" I have accumulated recently is simple due to being alive during the 80's and remember what markets did during that recession.  This time things are indeed a bit different.  Since this post deals with "growth" which, as far as I can tell, is the cornerstone of all the dominant economic models the world over.  Ultimately,he United States may be in a pretty good position given that we have not really raped our natural resources as many over sovereign nations and economies have.  The problem I do see and the question I have is the following;  what is stopping the our creditors from simply leaving the dollar for hard assets or securing contracts for mineral rights (required for growth and technology development)?

Look, is has been great front running fear and the Fed, but now what?  We all know the market dynamics being supported by the Fed are unsustainable and the laws of Physics and Nature if you will are going to force  I have turned a lot of this wealth into land purchases outside of city limits.  The way I figure it, this land has a good fresh water source (I bough the mineral rights and water rights as well) and good soil for a number of ag-based crops with applications across the board.  Right now almost 15% of the American population is on food stamps.  What people don't realize is that right now over 20% of the fossil fuels we burn are done so to convert inert atmospheric nitrogen to ammonia for 100% of the fertilizer used in industrial farming.  Yes there is some organic farming going on and there are organisms in Nature that can make their own fertilizer, but the latter natural process is slow.  The physics and thermodynamics are what they are and regardless of the God you might pray to, for the foreseeable future, it will take almost 500 kJ per mole to break the nitrogen-nitrogen triple bonds.  Counting all the feed (from plants) that is fed to animals thst supply the protein that we eat, organic farming does not even register in the grand scheme of things.  In fact, if we shut down the Habor-Bosch process and relied on only natural or "organic" processes for the ammonia and nitrate/nitrite and utilized every scare inch of land to grow food (which we can't for obvious reasons) we could support between half a billion and a billion people depending on what the weather does.  The way I figure it the land is my hedge.  For example, in the immediate future should the "build america bonds" program fail to find funding and cities begin to default, I see a great opportunity to put these folks to work on my land in exchange for some of the food we grow. 

I was just wondering if and when these academic idiots, like Uncle Ben, are going to be forced to realize that cheap labor and cheap energy drive economies and not cheap paper.  Can we ever expect economic professors around the world to ever start dealing with the reality if the finite planet we are currently confined to?  Yes, I have done very well over the last 20 years by front running stupidity, but even I will admit that eventually only those at the very top of this global ponzi may not get burnt eventually.  My 500K salary today will become tomorrow's poverty line.  This is especially true when a wheel-barrow of gold can't buy you clean clean water, simply because there is none in your area.  They way I see it, eventually doesn't lead, brass, and gunpowder become the ultimate hedge?  Think about it this way, one thing that has not changed during the whole fraudclosure mess is this "possession remains nine tenths of the law".

 

Thoughts?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 12:02 | 800059 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Okay, I see that the "save" button is to submit.  I will proofread next time, sorry.

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