The Vancouver Real Estate Market Rollercoaster

Tyler Durden's picture

It is one thing to watch squiggly lines, or pretty, but largely meaningless bubble charts explaining a snapshot phenomenon or one transpiring over time. It is something else to actually be in a rollercoaster which recreates the experience of the Vancouver real estate market. Which is why the following animation from Vancouver Condo Info is rather cool. "This is a roller coaster simulation of the last 35 years of the
Vancouver Real Estate market. The actual graph you're riding is the
inflation adjusted value of a house in Vancouver BC based on data
collected by Royal LePage and calculated by the UBC Centre for Urban
Economics and Real Estate. Some of the peaks and troughs have been
rounded to keep the train from flying off the tracks, but other than
that slight modification it is a precise scale model of the red line on
this graph: When the housing bubble of the early eighties popped in this city some house prices dropped by 50% over the next couple of years and didn't reach their inflation adjusted real price again for 25 years. What would a real estate market bust look like these days?"

Vancouver RE market rollercoaster from Vancouver Condo Info on Vimeo.

And for those who would like to try their skill at converting charts, such as for example the Fed's balance sheet (warning: it will be a boring ride), or the S&P in the last decade, or for a true free fall, CNBC's Nielsen ratings, can do so using NoLimits Roller Coaster Simulation here.

h/t Mike


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sabra1's picture

i, i barfed on the bald lady in front of me!

ACjourneyman's picture

I sold our house in the Vancouver suburbs, 30 miles from Vancouver, for 300k 8 years ago. If I wanted to rebuy the same home now it would cost me 600K. My wage has gone up about 2.00 an hour or less than 5%. I don't know if anyone else can do the math but it doesn't work. I guess the 5.00 gas and 1500 a year car insurance doesn't matter either, hard to live now.

Whalley World's picture

And no salute to the Canucks? Take that Boston! 

Anyway, in 1980 in Deep Cove, North Van, when interest rates went to 18% houses went from $750K to $250K.

Developers were wiped out.  Bubble? Think China investing here and you decide.

rsnoble's picture

My next big drunken conspiracy thought of the evening:  We are going to have a cyber attack.  Except it will be our own assholes that do it(like 9-11).  This attack will shut down the internet.  Then we'll pick which ever asshole country we want to go loot.  The US sheep have already been fleeced to the point of bloody scabs, now the assholes need there next bag of cash at the expense of killing 1000's of foreigners somewhere.

Timmay's picture

Ummm, no need to shut down the internet, how are we supposed to see the foreigners getting killed??

Transformer's picture

Right, no need to shut it down.  Just clean it up and get rid of the terrorists.  Like Drudge, Jones, ZH, that ilk.  It will be all their fault anyway.

Vic Vinegar's picture

Do you remember when that crazy cat shot at the Pentagon last October?  Well I do and I remember this classic comment from John McCloy at the time:

CNBS will shortly Report:

That the suspect was wearing a Ron Paul shirt, wrapped in an Gadsden Flag, carrying a sack of gold and silver coins, listening to Infowars broadcasts on his Iphone and had a Zero Hedge tattoo on his forehead and screaming "Glenn Beck" as he fired.

He reportedly is the same man accused of molesting women along side Julian Assange in Paris last month and was also seen stepping on Maltese puppies to death outside prior to the shooting.

More as they get it. Our next guest actual believes this could be the catalyst for another 300 point move up in stocks.

That was absolutely fucking brilliant. 

Taken from here:


Michael's picture

I hope and pray they shut down the Internet.

Google stock price goes immediately to zero.

Apple stock zero.

Amazon zero.

Microsoft zero.

HP zero.

I could go on and on.

Buck Johnson's picture

You may be right.  There was that massive cyber intrusion into a bunch of defense companies and govt. that the govt. won't say how much damage was done, but said that now they are considering cyber attack an act of war.  Now this is a catch all for any attack on anybody, because as long as an attack comes from the countries servers the US can say that country did it.  Something this way comes, and it won't be pretty.

Hugh G Rection's picture

I was ready for war after the playstation network got hacked.

American idle's picture

Is that what your government sponsored defense contractor news release wanting more money for security team vomited on you via the mainstream propaganda machines? Must be nice to play lame and get rewarded for it.

American idle's picture

Is that what your government sponsored defense contractor news release wanting more money for security team vomited on you via the mainstream propaganda machines? Must be nice to play lame and get rewarded for it.

theotheri's picture

"Except it will be our own assholes that do it(like 9-11)."

You lost me here. idiot.

Abitdodgie's picture

If your lost on that one try Yahoo chat rooms they will be more to your liking 

Sockeye's picture

Where do I buy the picture, you know the one with me screaming and everyone else cheering?

sheeple's picture

in hong kong, we need a "drop zone" simulator to model our residential condo price

Anonymouse's picture

For this kind of ride, the classic wooden roller coaster is too dangerous.  You need a steel coaster to keep from derailing with these angles.

Frein's picture

Too bad these drops would crush even steel, not to mention humans riding the coaster.

eureka's picture

Maybe the next 25 year dip comes, like next year. 

Maybe then Canadians halt their rampant acquisition of WA state.

Spitzer's picture

The Vancouver housing bubble will bust when interest rates go up, plain and simple.

slvrsurfer's picture

True, or when there are no more buyers (ie.greater fools). Canadian real estate is due for a correction, hopefully not a big one. Things are not as rosy as some may say they are up there. Who can you short in order to trade this move?

Whalley World's picture

Ya just can't argue with that!

Buck Johnson's picture

Also 25 years for the realestate market in Vancouver to come back to its inflation days, that is very bad news.  Because the babyboomers and the homebuilders and the bond holders can't wait 25 years for those assets to get back to inflation prices.

robertocarlos's picture

After Vancouver wins the Cup later this month the real estate market is really going to take off. The Chinese money is just pouring in and they like blood sports.

Transformer's picture

I live in the NW, and it's well known that Vancouver is the place to invest.  Can't lose.

Whalley World's picture

I can confirm that having witnessed the affinity of my Asian colleagues for the Canucks.


Rodent Freikorps's picture

As long a the oil flows who cares what America's hat does?

eureka's picture

And as long as oil flows who cares who owns WA state.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

As long a Boeing moves to SC, I hope WA. does leave. Leftist douchebags should hang together.

eureka's picture

Sure. Oh, btw - isn't Boeing a beneficiary of WA DC's/Pentagon's dole?

Rodent Freikorps's picture

It is also the latest rape victim of the NLRB.

This shit is gonna end.

You do realize we are one Supreme Court justice away from either civil war, or mass exodus, don't you?

Elections matter.

Everyone seems to forget that the communist walls were built to keep people IN.

Seer's picture

There's a rabbit running down your (silo) hole.  I think that you need to go chase it...

Whalley World's picture

Hold on a second there.  When the Big dollar was 1.60 you guys bought Whistler and a whole lot more and did we complain?  No we took the commissions and taxes!

Bay of Pigs's picture

Funny you say that. I see tons on BC vets dumping RE there and buying in Maui...

Smart money?

chinaguy's picture

I remember a much larger spike mid-to-late 80's as the Hong Kong money bid up Vancouver properties. Anyone else recall this too?

HistorySquared's picture

There should be a Chinese man on the roller coaster, as some estimates have more than half of Vancouver homes going to Chinese buyers. Not to be outdone, the mainland buyer has helped Australia's bubble, with reports of students buying 500k beachfront homes. Then there is the biggest bubble of all in Hong Kong where in the words of Andy Xie, it is "every man's dream to sell their home to some stupid mainlainder."

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

I do wish the Case-Shiller rollercoaster will be updated at some point..

DavidC's picture

That was an amazing video.


Problem Is's picture

HA! Leo is in the car in front of me crying like a little girl with a skinned knee...

PulauHantu29's picture

No one in their right mind is buying ANY real estate now since the reality is RE will drop another 40% according to many economists in line with stagnant wages and the current "long and painful" recession.

oddjob's picture

Watched the local news a few days ago, a house listed in West Van. for $2 miilion ,sold for $2.9 million. They had 150 offers in 2 days, most all from asians. Anybody that thinks the Chinese are gonna run out of paper money are sadly mistaken.

Sockeye's picture

So you are saying China is printing money so they can buy Vancouver real estate? You must be an eCONomist!

Diogenes's picture

The Fed is printing money for Walmart to give to China so the Chinese can buy Vancouver real estate, Saskatchewan potash mines, Alberta oil fields, African farm land, and whatever else they want. Try to keep up.

Sockeye's picture

FED is printing, yes, that is putting money in the hands of the chinese manufacturing elite - I get that. I also get that China is using their new found wealth to buy up potash and oil sands and natural resources around the globe. But Vancouver real estate? I don't get it. Why aren't they buying up Seattle real estate? I mean if you really want a moss covered shack in the rainforest they are a whole lot cheaper 3 hrs down the highway.

Transformer's picture

So, Vancouver RE is probably a better bet than silver or gold.  Hmmmm.

Transformer's picture

So, Vancouver RE is probably a better bet than silver or gold.  Hmmmm.

Devore's picture

Shacks in Vancouver are going UP in price, those in Seattle are going down. These are the ultimate in momentum "investors", what do you expect?

??'s picture

Check out the demographics for Canada very Asian friendly country  e.g. Van and TO pop half visible minority/majority - vast swaths of the large urban centers could be mistaken for similar locations in an Asian country - large Chinese supermarkets etc etc

zen0's picture

Universal health care, bitchez.

Deliverator's picture

It's called the Immigrant Investor Program.

Buy a house, and presto, chango! You're a landed immigrant (equivalent of green card status in the US), and you and your family can partake of all that Canada has to offer, including going to Canadian schools and to universities at the resident tuition rates. What's more, when you sell your house in one year or more, the capital gain is tax free! What better way to get your money out of the Old Country and wash it clean as a whistle?

Vancouver - China's laundrymat.