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Very Weak Retailer Performance In November Highlights Tapped Out Consumer
Major negative surprises by virtually all retailers with two exceptions, indicate that the consumer is becoming increasingly tapped out into the holiday season. Black Friday sales which were not too bad are likely merely another unsubsidized (yet) Cash For Clothing program with substantial demand being pulled forward: at this rate December sales will likely be an even greater negative surprise.
Retailer commentary from Goldman Sachs:
Retailers reported weaker November same-store sales results, with Kohl’s and Limited Brands being the only companies to beat expectations. Unseasonably warm weather in the first part of the month offset mostly strong holiday weekend sales around Black Friday. Most retailers posted positive same-store sales growth, with Macy’s, J.C. Penney, and Target being the outliers to the downside. However, a focus on inventory as well as cost-control initiatives are expected to continue to help margins, with Gap specifically pointing to stronger margins versus last year.
J.C. Penney pointed out that although it had strong online sales for the post-Thanksgiving period through Cyber-Monday, those sales will be recognized when merchandise is shipped and thus reflected in December sales figures. Macy’s and TJX both reaffirmed guidance for the fourth quarter, although this guidance is below current consensus estimates for both companies. The best relative performers on November SSS were Kohl’s and Limited Brands, with both exceeding expectations by 2.4% and 5.5%, respectively. For Limited, the beat was driven by better-than expected sales in the Victoria’s Secret segment, which was up 3% compared with consensus estimates of down 5.3%. Macy’s had the weakest performance on a relative basis, missing consensus estimates by 3%.
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AMAZON TO $200 WOOOHOOO
Seriously WTH is going on with that stock...help me folks...
I have Jan 115 puts looking for that pig to fill the gap....
Help...
I did that trade with SPG last summer. Gave myself plenty of time. Yeah, right. The Who's playing the Super Bowl. I imagine the NFL got a deal on a band that hasn't played a real gig in 30 years. I hope so, anyway. Anyway, that's relevant. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
Won't get fooled again.
Na na na na na
People say it's a short squeeze but I have a theory that daily momentum sector rotation played out by day trading ETFs, has a huge affect on AMZN because it's a large component so many ETFs like QQQQ, RTH, HHH, SPY and all the ultra and ultra shorts.
If their is a sector going up and an ETF going with it, AMZN is probably in it.
I could be completely wrong (and probably am) and it could just be that stores suck and with a few mouse clicks you can get exactly what you want without putting your pants on.
Also could be some kind of deal in the works that only insiders know about.
Cramer and cronies pumping it - remember, always gotta have something for the hedgies to pump and dump. 60 x earnings is his target for the sheeple = $216 after all his fuzzy math.
Long way to go. I am short at $115, too. Hard to fight the hedgies, though. Good luck by January
it is absolutely remarkable (yet not surprising) that the cheerleading section at cnbc (at least the website, i don't watch the tv portion) has absolutely no mention of bustmas sales.
actually, remarkable is the wrong word...feel free to substitute "hysterical", "comical" whatever
If they made mention of it then they would have to explain why they ran with BS stories about how more than 1/2 the US population went shopping on Friday.
I thought that was interesting too. Specially since I didnt know a single person that went shoppping on black friday, and my family are usually the first in line people...
Doesn't seem to garner any attention at Bloomberg.com, either.
BTW, wasn't Bloomie's saying pretty much the exact opposite of this yesterday? Can't seem to find that at their website, either.
You're right, there is no mention of the bad sales story as a "lead article" on CNBC's website (incredibly). But there is mention of it prominently in the left hand column, a link titled "Pisani: Traders Rationalize Weak Retail" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/34258687). In the article Pisani is skeptical of retail:
"Regardless: the bottom line is that consumers show up for big shopping events (back to school, Black Friday weekend) and disappear for the rest of the year."
mrs virgilcaine is only using cash this yr, could account for the drop, in sales. lol
Somebody mentioned earlier that they could not get a quote on RLX (s&P retail index).
If true, I find it strange because a lot of people would probably like to see if it's up or down.
I would assume XRT etf would be a good approximation, but you that's just an assumption.
It is, as is RTH I think. I'm just amused that the index would be down. Can't remember seeing an index not opening.
They were better than last year. I think that is good news. It is dissappointing to the forecasters not for me. This seems to be recovery even though a very weak one at that.
If it is too hot they blame it on the weather, if it is too cold they blame it on the weather.....
And then if it is cold it can be 'unseasonably' cold when it should be warm.
So in fact there is only one temperature to within + or - 0.000000000000000000001 degree Celsius that is perfect and only if that is not unseasonably out by 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degrees!
People are confused about Climategate, and therefore don't know how they are expected to shop/spend based on weather information yet to be manipulated.
Macy's - there is your cover for Q4.
It that ridiculous excuse doesn't make you distrust the media, nothing will. What were people doing in this abnormally warm weather, going to the beach?
These numbers are all the more anazing if you remember that NOV08 was the absolutely worst month ever for reatil sales. I ended up buying a new Volvo for almost 30% off the sticker price. This is the beginning of reality (maybe).
Does not surprise me one bit.
We have been sitting on fuel, water, food, ammunition and goodies for months now.
Our holiday spending will not be any more than it was last year, or the last 10 years before that... about 200 max.
Christmas is not about materialism, it is about the Lord's Day. To take care of others and celebrate does not take alot of money or shopping at all.
Food is simply a repeat of thanksgiving. We think the people what counts these charts should pay more attention to Grocery and Perishables at the Food side more than the stuff in the big box side.
Retail sales are weak but better than expected.
kohl's and the limited are the middle class best bagain clothes stores hands down, so, you can see middle class during the fiasco put off buying clothes, now that they will be visiting during holidays they need some new shirts and pants, me, i like salvation army, i'm buying sweatshirts for working out for 2 bucks, when i normally get em at kohls for twenty
The rage for the aging female sector is now wrinkle shots and turkey neck tucks. They are hoarding every nickel they can to get them.
The Missus is my most reliable retail sales indicator.
Retail index still not updating, hmmm like the FTSE shut for hours in a down market, or special rules apply because of volatility when there is bad news or computer problems... that only seem to ever happen on down days
I know some people here would think I'm making a big deal out of nothing but I just called my data provider to get them on this to give me an answer. I think it's bullshit and I can't find anwers anywhere as to why an index would stop updating.
Yep - same here. Both of my brokers told me that it was an exchange issue, but couldn't give me any additional info.
Betting that the exchange will blame it on unseasonal weather.
I work in grocery store retail.
The Thanksgiving shopping was a wreck.
Down 23% from last year.
retail and reits
total farce
the "markets" are totally bogus
the wall street banks are public enemy #1, the biggest threat to the country's ability to heal
they are like advanced cancer
Limited Brands was only up because they have a new padded bra that adds 2 cup sized. My wife made me pick one up the other day on the way home from work. It does work!!
Let them eat debt
All I can say is I did my part. I bought a used dSLR camera (with which to take photos of the protests and marches I expect to see soon and post them on my newly launched blog ... just kidding zero ...) from a friend. I traded him one of my extra shotguns and a box of shells. Seemed like a fair trade to me.
That counts towards economic growth (sales) does it not?
Can't believe GS didn't reiterate their conviction buy on Abercrombie.With y/o/y sss @-17% with estimates @ -9.3% it's got to be a screaming buy right? .Bad news is good news isn't it?