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Visualizing The Collapse: Charting The Drop From Q4 2010 To Q1 2011 GDP (Which Came In At 0.8% Ex-Inventories)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The bottom line: Q1 GDP ex-inventories came at 0.8%, the lowest since Q3 2009. The economy has hit stall speed, and absent another fiscal (nope) or monetary (QE3) stimulus, we will go negative in Q2, now that the full impact of the Japanese economic collapse has forced even the ostriches to pull their heads out of the sand. Alternatively, Bernanke will be stuck with the worst case of stagflation since the 1970s. Rock and hard place: just as we predicted in December 2010.

The chart below shows the ugly collapse in the economy in Q1: recall that up to a month ago it was supposed to grow by 4%! Now, ex inventories, it is 0.8%. And most importantly, the strong US consumer, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures, sees his share of economic growth drop by over 30%, from 2.8% to 1.9%.

Ball is in your court Chairsatan Printocchio.

 

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Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215362 Deep
Deep's picture

Chairsatan Printocchio

 

LOL LOL classic

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:20 | 1215472 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Yeah.  That's a great one.  I needed that laugh this a.m.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:55 | 1215365 anony
Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1215393 alexwest
alexwest's picture

fat armenian ass..

out of all Caucasian people who lives around Caspian sea armenians women are worst.. hairy, ugly, w/ big noses. 2000 years of inbreeding I might say

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:42 | 1215563 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

someday, you might even see a *real* vagina.....

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:45 | 1216553 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

you outcha dam mind

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216695 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Armenians are great.  Tough people, surrounded by Mooslims, and never backed down.  Good food, too.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215371 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

1.8% will be 0.8% by the final (3rd) revision

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1215373 wswarrior
wswarrior's picture

The GDP number is not a useful tool to analyze anything.  It's manipulated in every possible way, so I don't even bother analyzing its components.  Make no mistake about it, the storm clouds are on the horizon and nobody will be able to hide from what's coming. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:09 | 1215437 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Right on Warrior,

The ONLY line in the GDP report that tells us anything about the health of the economy is the Corporate profits line.  And we will not see that number for the first quarter for two more months.

 

 

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:03 | 1215673 franzpick
franzpick's picture

A case could be made that most of the metrics used during the 6 decade long, fed-sponsored credit binge, are credit-expansion dependent, and misleading or worse during the ongoing worldwide credit collapse.

For one example, find me a public or private agency that makes any effort at all to downward-adjust personal consumption expenditures for the $50-75 Bil not being paid for PMI and RE taxes by 'stay-in' delinquent homeowners.  Such 'adjustments' just aren't on the radar.

Reggie and John Williams are trying, but credit-contraction metrics is still an emerging discipline, and most of the reported numbers are bogus.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:55 | 1215379 alexwest
alexwest's picture

spin will be
'DEBT LIMIT / GOVERMENT SHUTDOWN talks' scared consumers, not oil ( wink wink)

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:02 | 1215924 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Over Under for number of days until boots are on the Libyan ground?

5. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1215383 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Investing in Top Ramen.

 

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1216034 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

Ramen comes from Japan. Not a good idea. Unless you like your ramen walking around talking to you and glowing in the dark. Hell, maybe it even cooks itself!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:02 | 1215390 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ball is in your court Chairsatan Printocchio.

Well....quite obviously what is called for, considering the data, is more money printing.  Sheesh...why are people so confused?  That, and E. Burnett turning up the adorable factor.  These two things can pull us out of the economic nose dive we are in.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:01 | 1215396 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Now we know why kindly Uncle Ben thought we needed a talking to. 

I Want My GLD!!!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:03 | 1215399 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

This weather is killing our economy!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:01 | 1215402 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

What dropped? GOvernment spending. Exports and consumer spending slowed (hence inventories rose)

What Rose? Core PCE at the top of Fed's new panic estimate. Food/Energy Hot. 

What does that spell? BI flation Nation!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:02 | 1215406 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Even if you sat down 50% of the people in the US, showed them this chart, and explained in child like terms what this means I am pretty sure they wouldn't care. Now show them a chart showing how ABC rigged "Dancing With the Stars" reults and all hell would break loose.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:02 | 1215407 Clorox Cowboy
Clorox Cowboy's picture

Can I get a "trade surplus" from the congregation?  Somebody scream!!!  

 

Team America, baby!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:15 | 1215991 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

At $114 oil?  Whose trade?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:03 | 1215408 monopoly
monopoly's picture

With all the knowledge most of us have, does our thoughts towards owning some gold, silver and miners really need explanation?

Only Robot can give us sound reasons to buy AMZN. :)

Not going to short this market as long as the Inmates are in charge.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:05 | 1215409 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Change in Private Investment, which is probably inflated, is only +0.09. And thats what drives recoveries. There is some praxeological merit to the accelerator principle, but it aint happening this time, because there are very few producers left, who have very limited capital to work with.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:03 | 1215412 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

personal consumption up 1.9%.  not good considering obama gave the peeps that 2% reduction in SS tax withheld.  without that, GDP is negative.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:54 | 1215888 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

WOW! The "Change" was in my pocket all along...

I am sorry I called you a bald (beard-less) faced liar Barry Soetoro...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:06 | 1215414 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

First of all everything bad was transitory. 

Factoring that in it was a glowing report

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:30 | 1215526 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

"Transitory" is the new watchword of the Fed/Administration.

Until 2013.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:06 | 1215426 PD Quig
PD Quig's picture

MarketWatch headline: "U.S. GDP Expands by 1.8%"

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:32 | 1215529 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

10% of GDP is on the gov credit card and will be repaid (maybe) with interest by the next 3 generations.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:16 | 1215735 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Default.  I am already teaching that to my 7month old daughter. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:00 | 1216913 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

the dollar has lost 98% of its value since the beginnning of the Federal Reserve.

Prepare for that to happen again, this time within 10 years time.

10% GDP will be paid today, not by your children. Through run-away inflation.

Get ready folks, Inflationary Depression is coming

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:06 | 1215428 Sutton
Sutton's picture

The solution to a declining economy is 0% rates and massive deficit spending with the Fed buying 75% of new treasury issusance.

It's so obvious.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:12 | 1215445 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

0% interest rates, printing trillions, borrowing trillions....

.8%

Better raise that debt ceiling, unless you want your children raped by terrorists.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:14 | 1215446 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Wow.

"Real GDP growth gained 3.3% in 4Q, with all of the miss relative to our +4.4% forecast coming from inventories, with likely offsetting upside in 1Q. Final sales (GDP ex inventories) spiked 7.1%, a high since 1984, boosted by big gains in consumer spending (+4.4%) and net exports (+3.2pp contribution). Our preliminary estimate for 1Q GDP growth is now +4.5%, up from our last forecast of +3.3%, with inventories now likely to boost growth instead of subtract."

Was incorrect?

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2011/20110201-Tue.html

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:21 | 1215479 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Imports and exports made up 3.27% to GDP growth last time, this time, minus 1.27%.

The decline in exports must be particularly disappointing...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:24 | 1215491 Boston
Boston's picture

Rock and hard place: just as we predicted in December 2010. The chart below shows the ugly collapse in the economy in Q1

Yup.  And just as predicted, the natural consequence of this economic slowdown on US Treasuries is for them to RALLY---not collapse as many "experts" have insisted.

Paging Bill Gross, paging Bill Gross.

<crickets>

 


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1215508 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

China's consumer price index hit a 32-month high last month, placing immense pressure on farmers and food-makers to pay for costlier raw materials and distribution. Government price controls often mean those increased costs can't be passed on to consumers.

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/04/new-wave-of-food-scares-in-china-could-spread-because-of-inflation.html

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:31 | 1215511 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

You guys simply don't get it.

TPTB will simply concoct yet another "scheme" to get things going again, another "cash for clunkers", or another housing stimulus program.

An unlimited number of scams can be cooked up to goose the economy.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:35 | 1215532 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

"Society is 3 square meals away from anarchy"

Until they can print food, the ship is going down.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1215543 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Yes, and no.

There will come a time when diversionary tactics are needed, because the economy will simply not respond.  A new war, a new catastrophe, a new set of "outsiders" to demonize.  Some distraction can kick the can down the road, and perhaps set up a new paradigm so "goosing" can recommence.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:40 | 1215564 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Robo Robo.... must have cut back on the coffee this morning.

Your comments are lacking your usual ZEAL.

I couldn't think of a reason to junk you although I like to just for fun!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:52 | 1215630 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Newsflash deaf, dumb, blind kid, there is no such thing as perpetual motion!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:50 | 1215859 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

But he stands like a statue, becomes part of the machine...

His disciples lead him in, and he just does the rest...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:51 | 1216586 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ah yes, the Who puts on a great show.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:15 | 1215726 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Pushing on a string, pissing in the wind, sucking on a moldy hot dog, that's the Western world (incl. Japan) today...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 20:20 | 1218528 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Um, your avatar seems to be a coupla bucks short...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:20 | 1215744 ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

An unlimited number of scams can be cooked up to goose the economy.

I think you meant to say "A limited number of scams can be cooked up to goose the economy temporarily."

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:35 | 1215545 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

Inventory cycle now over, cut all the taxex and start the printing, perpetuum mobile is possible...pause...NOT

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:47 | 1215586 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Anyone else trying to early withdraw from an IRA here?  Having troubles doing it?  Getting the run around?

I am on week 3 of trying to close down an account with hardly any funds in it.  Now the "check is in the mail".  Oh yes, and no tracking numbers are available.   Paid for next day shipping via UPS.  Day 3 for UPS next day shipping.  I am betting when I call back today they will try and tell me that my address was incorrect even though they have been sending me statements religiously to the same address for the last 5 years.

<sarc> UPS shipping sucks everyone.</sarc>

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1215627 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

It took me *4* months of phone tag to get my 401K cashed out.  Paying agent?  JPMorganChase.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:09 | 1216680 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Sorry it took so long!  Glad to hear it all worked out though!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216702 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

I demanded that they send it by yr end '10.  They sent a check post-dated December 31, 2010 right before Christmas.  These are the times in which we live.... lol

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:19 | 1217005 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I hear ya SoNH80.  Peace, and health to you and yours!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 17:16 | 1217898 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Likewise!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:23 | 1216443 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

UPS blows, I don't use them for anything anymore.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1216700 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I would not normally, but it was take the chance on their over night delivery or USPS regular mail.  Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:52 | 1216603 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, the banks and wall street know the sham is over and are fucking scared.  Cashed out last June, bought some more gold and silver.  Cash some of that out for more land to lease for foreign Agriculture interests.

That is the problem with "mark to unicorn" accounting.  It all falls apart when we all demand to see our unicorns. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:17 | 1216904 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I hear you LOP.

I waited to long to do this.  My wife just couldn't wrap her head around what she wasn't seeing.  The grocery bills and fuel bills finally started to reflect what I had been preaching months earlier, thanks to ZH and the Turd.  I cashed out several other investments in the early days when Ag and Au were dirt cheap.  Bought then and kept updating my spreadsheets.  I showed her the growth in Ag and Au vs. the IRA and she almost passed out.  She asked me to do the same comparison to several of our other "retirement vehicles". I have never heard he so quiet for so long.

She kept investing on the advice of her financial advisor.  I kept investing in PM's.  In 2008 she kept telling my wife that Obama was going to fix everything.  Stocks dropped then went back up so she was satisfied.

I kept telling her she was losing money, and her advisor was sucking her dry on the investments.  I finally told her to ask the advisor about investing in Au and Ag in 2009.  The advisor said why would you want to throw away your money on such a crappy investment?  The no yield, historic lows, and slow growth excuses, I believe were the tactics used.

The best action I took was to never forced her to do anything drastic with our joint investments.  I invested personally.

It is awe inspiring when the wheels of anger start to grind within a woman's head.  Hell has no furry like a woman screwed out of her fiat currency.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:11 | 1215698 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

watching the USD turn to confetti right before my very eyes...it's actually mesmerizing.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:24 | 1215761 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Chairsatan Printocchio?

And I thought his name was "Bubbles"!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:31 | 1215788 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'll bet they had to use steroidal cream to massage the number to .8%!  surely this will be revised downward, so the next quarter doen't seem extreme. 

now, all we need is a million new jobs and people to buy mansions and new SUVs and invest in tax-shelterd gains forever!

inflation is like impropriety.  its appearance must be avoided.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 20:26 | 1218542 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Not only is the Emperor running around naked, but he's jerkin' hisself off and spraying the populace!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:45 | 1215835 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"...another fiscal (nope) or monetary (QE3) stimulus, we will go negative in Q2..."

How Will CREEP: Committee to Re-Elect the President 2012 Respond?
Lie and overstate GDP by further understating the CPI (YES), understate unemployment by culling unemployed from labor force participation (YES), and\or the classic Obummer Lie by Revision (ALWAYS)...

BTW: CREEP needs to raise $1 Billion from students on the internet $10 at a time and other CIA lies...

Note: Due to Bernank inflation... the 2008 $600 Million from students on the internet $10 at a time just won't cut it...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1215897 aerial view
aerial view's picture

very slow or no growth and rising prices: Mr Chairsatan-how do YOU define Stagflation?!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:08 | 1215949 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

CNBC:
CNBC Anchorette's huge boobs block her vision as she hands Tyler's chart upside down to CNBC's 3rd on screen boob Steve Lies-man...

Lies-man:

"Wow! This chart shows across the board growth in every category! By every metric of GDP in Q1, this recovery is gang busters!"

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:08 | 1215966 for a dollar more
for a dollar more's picture

It is social mindset that is taking down the economy. Anyone in the private job sector asking for a raise to keep up with rising prices? No. Inflation of the money supply or the falling value of the dollar is OK as long as wages keep going up to balance the equation. Rising private sector wages also mean more tax dollars going into government coffers to keep down deficit spending. We are witnessing the destruction of production because of low wages. This is going to cause the massive destruction of high paying government jobs as a result of government default. I expect to see this massive destruction really take shape around June.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:22 | 1216054 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

Ramen comes from Japan. Not a good idea. Unless you like your ramen walking around talking to you and glowing in the dark. Hell, maybe it even cooks itself!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:27 | 1216464 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

They make it in the L.A. suburbs now.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 12:24 | 1216445 ZimbabweTrillionaire
ZimbabweTrillionaire's picture

test

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