This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Visualizing The Collapse: Charting The Drop From Q4 2010 To Q1 2011 GDP (Which Came In At 0.8% Ex-Inventories)
The bottom line: Q1 GDP ex-inventories came at 0.8%, the lowest since Q3 2009. The economy has hit stall speed, and absent another fiscal (nope) or monetary (QE3) stimulus, we will go negative in Q2, now that the full impact of the Japanese economic collapse has forced even the ostriches to pull their heads out of the sand. Alternatively, Bernanke will be stuck with the worst case of stagflation since the 1970s. Rock and hard place: just as we predicted in December 2010.
The chart below shows the ugly collapse in the economy in Q1: recall that up to a month ago it was supposed to grow by 4%! Now, ex inventories, it is 0.8%. And most importantly, the strong US consumer, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures, sees his share of economic growth drop by over 30%, from 2.8% to 1.9%.
Ball is in your court Chairsatan Printocchio.
»
- 10659 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Chairsatan Printocchio
LOL LOL classic
Yeah. That's a great one. I needed that laugh this a.m.
This is the real Bottom line:
http://uvtblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/kim-kardashian-playboy-nude-ass.jpg
fat armenian ass..
out of all Caucasian people who lives around Caspian sea armenians women are worst.. hairy, ugly, w/ big noses. 2000 years of inbreeding I might say
alx
someday, you might even see a *real* vagina.....
you outcha dam mind
Armenians are great. Tough people, surrounded by Mooslims, and never backed down. Good food, too.
1.8% will be 0.8% by the final (3rd) revision
The GDP number is not a useful tool to analyze anything. It's manipulated in every possible way, so I don't even bother analyzing its components. Make no mistake about it, the storm clouds are on the horizon and nobody will be able to hide from what's coming.
Right on Warrior,
The ONLY line in the GDP report that tells us anything about the health of the economy is the Corporate profits line. And we will not see that number for the first quarter for two more months.
A case could be made that most of the metrics used during the 6 decade long, fed-sponsored credit binge, are credit-expansion dependent, and misleading or worse during the ongoing worldwide credit collapse.
For one example, find me a public or private agency that makes any effort at all to downward-adjust personal consumption expenditures for the $50-75 Bil not being paid for PMI and RE taxes by 'stay-in' delinquent homeowners. Such 'adjustments' just aren't on the radar.
Reggie and John Williams are trying, but credit-contraction metrics is still an emerging discipline, and most of the reported numbers are bogus.
spin will be
'DEBT LIMIT / GOVERMENT SHUTDOWN talks' scared consumers, not oil ( wink wink)
alx
Over Under for number of days until boots are on the Libyan ground?
5.
Investing in Top Ramen.
Ramen comes from Japan. Not a good idea. Unless you like your ramen walking around talking to you and glowing in the dark. Hell, maybe it even cooks itself!
Well....quite obviously what is called for, considering the data, is more money printing. Sheesh...why are people so confused? That, and E. Burnett turning up the adorable factor. These two things can pull us out of the economic nose dive we are in.
Now we know why kindly Uncle Ben thought we needed a talking to.
I Want My GLD!!!
This weather is killing our economy!
What dropped? GOvernment spending. Exports and consumer spending slowed (hence inventories rose)
What Rose? Core PCE at the top of Fed's new panic estimate. Food/Energy Hot.
What does that spell? BI flation Nation!
Even if you sat down 50% of the people in the US, showed them this chart, and explained in child like terms what this means I am pretty sure they wouldn't care. Now show them a chart showing how ABC rigged "Dancing With the Stars" reults and all hell would break loose.
Can I get a "trade surplus" from the congregation? Somebody scream!!!
Team America, baby!
At $114 oil? Whose trade?
With all the knowledge most of us have, does our thoughts towards owning some gold, silver and miners really need explanation?
Only Robot can give us sound reasons to buy AMZN. :)
Not going to short this market as long as the Inmates are in charge.
Change in Private Investment, which is probably inflated, is only +0.09. And thats what drives recoveries. There is some praxeological merit to the accelerator principle, but it aint happening this time, because there are very few producers left, who have very limited capital to work with.
personal consumption up 1.9%. not good considering obama gave the peeps that 2% reduction in SS tax withheld. without that, GDP is negative.
WOW! The "Change" was in my pocket all along...
I am sorry I called you a bald (beard-less) faced liar Barry Soetoro...
First of all everything bad was transitory.
Factoring that in it was a glowing report
"Transitory" is the new watchword of the Fed/Administration.
Until 2013.
MarketWatch headline: "U.S. GDP Expands by 1.8%"
10% of GDP is on the gov credit card and will be repaid (maybe) with interest by the next 3 generations.
Default. I am already teaching that to my 7month old daughter.
the dollar has lost 98% of its value since the beginnning of the Federal Reserve.
Prepare for that to happen again, this time within 10 years time.
10% GDP will be paid today, not by your children. Through run-away inflation.
Get ready folks, Inflationary Depression is coming
The solution to a declining economy is 0% rates and massive deficit spending with the Fed buying 75% of new treasury issusance.
It's so obvious.
0% interest rates, printing trillions, borrowing trillions....
.8%
Better raise that debt ceiling, unless you want your children raped by terrorists.
Wow.
"Real GDP growth gained 3.3% in 4Q, with all of the miss relative to our +4.4% forecast coming from inventories, with likely offsetting upside in 1Q. Final sales (GDP ex inventories) spiked 7.1%, a high since 1984, boosted by big gains in consumer spending (+4.4%) and net exports (+3.2pp contribution). Our preliminary estimate for 1Q GDP growth is now +4.5%, up from our last forecast of +3.3%, with inventories now likely to boost growth instead of subtract."
Was incorrect?
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2011/20110201-Tue.html
Imports and exports made up 3.27% to GDP growth last time, this time, minus 1.27%.
The decline in exports must be particularly disappointing...
Yup. And just as predicted, the natural consequence of this economic slowdown on US Treasuries is for them to RALLY---not collapse as many "experts" have insisted.
Paging Bill Gross, paging Bill Gross.
<crickets>
China's consumer price index hit a 32-month high last month, placing immense pressure on farmers and food-makers to pay for costlier raw materials and distribution. Government price controls often mean those increased costs can't be passed on to consumers.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/04/new-wave-of-food-scares-in-china-could-spread-because-of-inflation.html
You guys simply don't get it.
TPTB will simply concoct yet another "scheme" to get things going again, another "cash for clunkers", or another housing stimulus program.
An unlimited number of scams can be cooked up to goose the economy.
"Society is 3 square meals away from anarchy"
Until they can print food, the ship is going down.
Yes, and no.
There will come a time when diversionary tactics are needed, because the economy will simply not respond. A new war, a new catastrophe, a new set of "outsiders" to demonize. Some distraction can kick the can down the road, and perhaps set up a new paradigm so "goosing" can recommence.
Robo Robo.... must have cut back on the coffee this morning.
Your comments are lacking your usual ZEAL.
I couldn't think of a reason to junk you although I like to just for fun!
Newsflash deaf, dumb, blind kid, there is no such thing as perpetual motion!
But he stands like a statue, becomes part of the machine...
His disciples lead him in, and he just does the rest...
Ah yes, the Who puts on a great show.
Pushing on a string, pissing in the wind, sucking on a moldy hot dog, that's the Western world (incl. Japan) today...
Um, your avatar seems to be a coupla bucks short...
I think you meant to say "A limited number of scams can be cooked up to goose the economy temporarily."
Inventory cycle now over, cut all the taxex and start the printing, perpetuum mobile is possible...pause...NOT
Anyone else trying to early withdraw from an IRA here? Having troubles doing it? Getting the run around?
I am on week 3 of trying to close down an account with hardly any funds in it. Now the "check is in the mail". Oh yes, and no tracking numbers are available. Paid for next day shipping via UPS. Day 3 for UPS next day shipping. I am betting when I call back today they will try and tell me that my address was incorrect even though they have been sending me statements religiously to the same address for the last 5 years.
<sarc> UPS shipping sucks everyone.</sarc>
It took me *4* months of phone tag to get my 401K cashed out. Paying agent? JPMorganChase.
Sorry it took so long! Glad to hear it all worked out though!
I demanded that they send it by yr end '10. They sent a check post-dated December 31, 2010 right before Christmas. These are the times in which we live.... lol
I hear ya SoNH80. Peace, and health to you and yours!
Likewise!
UPS blows, I don't use them for anything anymore.
I would not normally, but it was take the chance on their over night delivery or USPS regular mail. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.
Yes, the banks and wall street know the sham is over and are fucking scared. Cashed out last June, bought some more gold and silver. Cash some of that out for more land to lease for foreign Agriculture interests.
That is the problem with "mark to unicorn" accounting. It all falls apart when we all demand to see our unicorns.
I hear you LOP.
I waited to long to do this. My wife just couldn't wrap her head around what she wasn't seeing. The grocery bills and fuel bills finally started to reflect what I had been preaching months earlier, thanks to ZH and the Turd. I cashed out several other investments in the early days when Ag and Au were dirt cheap. Bought then and kept updating my spreadsheets. I showed her the growth in Ag and Au vs. the IRA and she almost passed out. She asked me to do the same comparison to several of our other "retirement vehicles". I have never heard he so quiet for so long.
She kept investing on the advice of her financial advisor. I kept investing in PM's. In 2008 she kept telling my wife that Obama was going to fix everything. Stocks dropped then went back up so she was satisfied.
I kept telling her she was losing money, and her advisor was sucking her dry on the investments. I finally told her to ask the advisor about investing in Au and Ag in 2009. The advisor said why would you want to throw away your money on such a crappy investment? The no yield, historic lows, and slow growth excuses, I believe were the tactics used.
The best action I took was to never forced her to do anything drastic with our joint investments. I invested personally.
It is awe inspiring when the wheels of anger start to grind within a woman's head. Hell has no furry like a woman screwed out of her fiat currency.
watching the USD turn to confetti right before my very eyes...it's actually mesmerizing.
Chairsatan Printocchio?
And I thought his name was "Bubbles"!
i'll bet they had to use steroidal cream to massage the number to .8%! surely this will be revised downward, so the next quarter doen't seem extreme.
now, all we need is a million new jobs and people to buy mansions and new SUVs and invest in tax-shelterd gains forever!
inflation is like impropriety. its appearance must be avoided.
Not only is the Emperor running around naked, but he's jerkin' hisself off and spraying the populace!
How Will CREEP: Committee to Re-Elect the President 2012 Respond?
Lie and overstate GDP by further understating the CPI (YES), understate unemployment by culling unemployed from labor force participation (YES), and\or the classic Obummer Lie by Revision (ALWAYS)...
BTW: CREEP needs to raise $1 Billion from students on the internet $10 at a time and other CIA lies...
Note: Due to Bernank inflation... the 2008 $600 Million from students on the internet $10 at a time just won't cut it...
very slow or no growth and rising prices: Mr Chairsatan-how do YOU define Stagflation?!
CNBC:
CNBC Anchorette's huge boobs block her vision as she hands Tyler's chart upside down to CNBC's 3rd on screen boob Steve Lies-man...
Lies-man:
It is social mindset that is taking down the economy. Anyone in the private job sector asking for a raise to keep up with rising prices? No. Inflation of the money supply or the falling value of the dollar is OK as long as wages keep going up to balance the equation. Rising private sector wages also mean more tax dollars going into government coffers to keep down deficit spending. We are witnessing the destruction of production because of low wages. This is going to cause the massive destruction of high paying government jobs as a result of government default. I expect to see this massive destruction really take shape around June.
Ramen comes from Japan. Not a good idea. Unless you like your ramen walking around talking to you and glowing in the dark. Hell, maybe it even cooks itself!
They make it in the L.A. suburbs now.
test