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Visualizing The Propaganda "Error Term" Behind The Bureau Of Labor Statistics

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's announcement by the BLS that it decided to flat out estimate nearly a third of all initial jobless claims (courtesy of several large outliers) due to a "clerical holiday" which resulted in a major beat to estimates, caught many offguard by just how tendentious and manipulative the US Department of Truth can be. This is nothing. To visualize just how ridiculous the perpetual upward bias is at the Labor Bureau, we present a chart demonstrating the weekly jobless claim revisions by the BLS: in a nutshell, 90%+ of the time the bureau has revised prior claims upward, meaning it consistently strives to create an optimistic picture at the moment, only to have it revised it to its true, uglier state a week later when nobody cares. The implication is that fraudulent (and we sure hope this is inadvertent, although a 90% error rate definitely would invite a criminal investigation into just who and how stands to benefit from such an manipulative upward bias) data reporting is responsible for a persistent upward bias in data, and that fundamentals have been disconnected from the "government's reality" for years, confirming that the recent pathological breakdown in the market's relationship with fundamentals is not a new development. For example: today stocks would be flat to down if the BLS were to report the initial claims as they really are. Instead, here we are, almost 1% higher on nothing but soon to be revised lies. In other news, the China-US data distribution Joint Venture/Vassal State development is progressing better than expected.


h/t John Lohman

 

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Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:34 | 571875 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Guess I'll need to wait another day for the market crash...sigh.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:36 | 571883 VK
VK's picture

BLS = Bureau of Liars and Shills. 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:36 | 572023 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bureau of Lying Standards.

After all, someone has to set the standard, right?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:58 | 572065 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe they are not liars, maybe government workers are just not very bright, and thus do not realize the metric they are using is flawed? 

Yesterday, at the Dept. of Health and Human Services meeting at the Hilton Americas in Houston, I randomly asked 5 attendees the question, "Are you going to vote for Obama in the election this fall?"  They all answered yes.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:04 | 572087 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

HH,

I don't care how bright or stupid 95% of government workers are. The manipulation is handled at, or near, the very top of each entity. That's why the heads are political appointees.

In many ways, the lower career employees know this and are as captive to the system as anyone else. They do their job. I have a few friends in DC government. One told me this and claims it's the general consensus among his fellow gvt employees.

"If the big guys want to play with the numbers, it's on them. I just need to keep my head down and put in my 30."

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:10 | 572097 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

But all the left loves a whistleblower.....unless the whistleblower blows on the left.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:20 | 572140 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

ACORN, bitches?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:14 | 572111 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe you say you do not care, CD, but my mind is frequently distracted by the evil or stupid question.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:41 | 572193 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Allowing the stupid to be powerful is evil.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 14:14 | 572299 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It was a turn of phrase to indicate that the 95% aren't responsible for the bogus numbers, regardless of whether they are stupid or not. Thus I don't care what they are when that's not the source of the manipulation. Stupid and bright government employees are the least of our worries.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 20:37 | 573195 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Then they are blowing smoke.  If they are GS employees, it would practically committing a felony on the Mall to get them fired. They want the next promotion to GS14/15 and so they say it on the higher ups.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:10 | 573949 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Maybe they are not liars, maybe government workers are just not very bright, and thus do not realize the metric they are using is flawed?"

I strongly suspect that their methodology is intentially biased to produce better than reality results.  This is already known to be the case with the CPI, the unemployment rate, etc.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

And as pointed out in the book "Greenspan's Bubbles," the government's ignorant use of its own manipulated figures results in garbage-in, garbage-out economic policies where a housing bubble isn't even evident in their own economic metrics!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:36 | 571885 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

lyin beyatchessssss

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:38 | 571892 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

The BLS have been using that dreaded NOMAD contraption to compile jobless statistics.

Visualize this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLRS91IG6Ik&feature=related

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:10 | 571952 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

OK, but can it read a teleprompter?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:29 | 572158 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Nope,NOMAD would self-destruct.

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:39 | 571893 Everyman
Everyman's picture

On any other "estimate" the US Goverrnment puts out they usually precede it with a description of the outliers and departures from usual process involved.  The real question is "Why did they not report this "estimation" and the possible errors in it to inform the public and investors?"  I think the answer is now our Government does not care about "the Country" or "the people".  TPTB all are only concerned about their power and are starting to see it slip away.

In any other situation a government lying to their population would start the MSM or Lamestream media off on a hunt.  Not today, as this is their agenda, and they are protecting that agenda. 

Liberty is dying, and the first casualty is truth.

Have a happy day, and hat tip to DRUDGE REPORT for picking this up.  I wonder when CNBS is going to get back into the journalism business and actually report truth out there.  The GE Propaganda machine simply is a lap dog for TPTB.  If a crazy person destroyed the CNBS studios the only loss would be to the families of those in the studio.  Journalism however would suffer no loss whatsoeer and that is clearly shown by the Erin Burnett fiasco with Michael Pinto.

 

Sad day for "journalism" and it is getting just a bit sick.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:00 | 571931 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I think it's Michael Pento, not Pinto.

DavidC

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 20:41 | 573201 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

Remember, 90 to 99% voted for BO and they have to protect him to protect themselves, and they did not do any investigation of any Rat, but Republican's are looked at with a fine tooth comb.  As one was aksed about extra-martial affairs of Rats vs repubs and the answer was we know the Rats do it but the Repub are the family value party. Remember how many reporters? went to Alaska vs checking BO.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:16 | 571895 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Stupid is as stupid does.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:17 | 571896 Everyman
Everyman's picture

 

Stupid is as stupid does.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:18 | 571897 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Multipost bitchez.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:40 | 571898 Everyman
Everyman's picture

On any other "estimate" the US Goverrnment puts out they usually precede it with a description of the outliers and departures from usual process involved.  The real question is "Why did they not report this "estimation" and the possible errors in it to inform the public and investors?"  I think the answer is now our Government does not care about "the Country" or "the people".  TPTB all are only concerned about their power and are starting to see it slip away.

In any other situation a government lying to their population would start the MSM or Lamestream media off on a hunt.  Not today, as this is their agenda, and they are protecting that agenda. 

Liberty is dying, and the first casualty is truth.

Have a happy day, and hat tip to DRUDGE REPORT for picking this up.  I wonder when CNBS is going to get back into the journalism business and actually report truth out there.  The GE Propaganda machine simply is a lap dog for TPTB.  If a crazy person destroyed the CNBS studios the only loss would be to the families of those in the studio.  Journalism however would suffer no loss whatsoeer and that is clearly shown by the Erin Burnett fiasco with Michael Pinto.

 

Sad day for "journalism" and it is getting just a bit sick.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:06 | 571944 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

A quintuple post? Is that a new record? 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:09 | 571949 Everyman
Everyman's picture

The ZH site was acting weird.  Tyler PLEASE DELETE the last three posts.  Thank you.  For the rest Sorry.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:17 | 571978 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If no one has replied to your "extra" comments, hit the "edit" button, delete the content and insert "dup". Fix some of the mess yourself since you kept on hitting the send button.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:12 | 571956 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No new record. Not even close.

I saw 10 bagger about 6 months ago. What made it brilliant was that the hapless poster than did the ultimate save by removing the original comments in each one and substituting a running commentary of his/her surprise at what happened.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:46 | 571902 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Lions          21

Christians     0

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:59 | 571927 Blano
Blano's picture

Obviously not the Detroit Lions.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:43 | 572046 shargash
shargash's picture

The Christians are only down by 3 touchdowns. They can make that up with a few Hail Mary's.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:41 | 572196 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Think they'll go for the 2-point conversion?

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:47 | 571906 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

What if companies reported their earnings this way.....?

Hmmmmmmmm

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:01 | 571933 DavidC
DavidC's picture

What, you mean they don't?!

DavidC

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:22 | 571990 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

There were stories doing the rounds about Cisco in the late 90'es (dot com era) - apparently, in a bid to boost earnings by the final cent (in order to beat estimates), they would load trucks with gear overnight, as they could technically count gear having left the depot as revenue.

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:37 | 572022 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Also in the 90's, I repeatedly claimed my dick was bigger than it is, but never once made the claim it was smaller.  By the time the unwitting female figured out the true measurement, it was too late, as I had already achieved my goal.  All the best tricks are old tricks.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:43 | 572043 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, yeah, but then lots of females do things to their looks which would send used-car salesmen to prison.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:06 | 572092 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

When all ya got is 3 inches, all you can do is lie.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:37 | 572024 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

maybe the government could hire people to go in and pretend to be working somewhere. That way, we'd get two jobs for each. 

Sat, 09/18/2010 - 02:03 | 572749 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

They also "destroyed" about 2.6B worth of over stock gear in 2000ish and took the write off.  Most of it found its way to South America and in Cisco's "Authorized" channel. If anyone ever looked into it they'd find a pretty big shit sandwich there too..

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 20:43 | 573202 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Do a wikipedia lookup on "MiniScribe."

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:48 | 571907 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

BLS sucks ass along with all other lying sacks of shit involved in economic statistics

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:47 | 571908 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

** ALERT **

                  Gold in free fall ....

                                             .

                                              .

                                               .

                                                .

                                                 .....

                                                       .

                                                        ..... Turd, whats going on ????

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:53 | 571914 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

40bps is a free fall???????????

You may want to inquire about a job at the BLS.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:06 | 571942 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Off over 1%, what do you mean 40 basis points?

DavidC

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:39 | 572189 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So, is 1% in Free Fall?

Now 70bps.

Even if 10% off all time high, I dont know if you could call it free fall.

 

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:05 | 571935 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Just easier to copy and paste from yesterday.

 

by Turd Ferguson 
on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 13:06
#569913

 

TM: My best guess is that there is a supply squeeze building in Silver on the Crimex. This has been helping to provide support for gold in the next pit over. Be sure to follow Harvey Organ's daily commentary. Here's the link:

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

My plan was to roll my Oct calls when we hit 1265. I didn't do it, however. I may come to regret my decision but today's action has given me confidence that 1265 will not hold. I doubt that the EE will allow gold to close above 1265 on Friday. They'll do everything they can to keep that kind of close off the weekly chart. I don't think they can buy themselves more than one week of time, however.

When the July correction hit, I tried to counsel everyone here that the chart damage inflicted by the EE would keep gold in a box through Labor Day. That prediction came to pass. Its now off to new highs. If not this week, then gold will climb through 1265 next Monday or Tuesday, setting up an initial run to about 1290. After a brief pause, we will see 1350 before Halloween and 1500 before Dec 10.

 

 

 

  • edit
  •  

  • reply
  •  

  • flag as junk (0)

  • Again, The EE will "throw the kitchen sink" at gold to keep it below 1267 on the close tomorrow. Let's see where the buyer(s) of size shows up today. I'd say between 1240 and 1245.
  • They will also try to whack silver back to 19.50, too.

  •  
  •  

     

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:08 | 571948 traderjoe
    traderjoe's picture

    Silver at $20 seems to be an important line in the sand. 

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:20 | 571984 JLee2027
    JLee2027's picture

    Very...

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:27 | 572001 docj
    docj's picture

    Indeed - poked above it 2x yesterday and again this morning, only to be ripped back down below 19.90 both times.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:41 | 572038 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    Indeed, the zombies can't be allowed to look in their wallets and find only paper.

    The greatest con ever was convincing the people to allow the wizards behind the curtain to determine who, what, when, where and why with regard to the method of exchange for our slave labor.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:07 | 571912 Threeggg
    Threeggg's picture

    The Gold Algo's have created a flashcrash in Gold and silver much like the flashcrash in base metals on the Hang Seng last night.

    I wonder if they will find a cause ?  ;)

    Nope !

    3% in 5 minutes   WOW!

    http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/AS/0810/NT_20100909112536.jpg

    This is getting very wierd !

    P.S. I think all the fuss is over the price of oil

    There is a "HUGE" "HUGE"-"GLUT"

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-supply-flat-demand-will-hftn-3485783726.html?x=0

    selloff comming soon !

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:51 | 571913 aztrader
    aztrader's picture

    I sent this in to Drudge this morning.  Getting really tired of the BLS BS!

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:58 | 571917 knukles
    knukles's picture

    In Modern History Never has a Society Persevered when the very Governmental Repositories Responsible for Valid Economic Data have Resorted to Propaganda.

    "We're Americans and History Don't Apply to Us." does not hold water.

    End of Empire.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:11 | 571953 traderjoe
    traderjoe's picture

    I do hate when the Teleprompter talks about us as the "Greatest .... ". It does such a disservice. Far too much arrogance around past national accomplishments...

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:28 | 572007 docj
    docj's picture

    No need for the hate - he doesn't really believe it.

    It's all words.  Just words.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:00 | 571923 Spalding_Smailes
    Spalding_Smailes's picture

    Does anyone remember that clown that bought COCCA in the UK a few months back trying to corner the market.

    That fund may be imploding soon .... dropping like a stone down another 40.00 today.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:07 | 571947 DavidC
    DavidC's picture

    I was talking with a friend of mine last Friday about that, he's a few pounds less wealthy now!

    DavidC

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:57 | 571924 Rich_Lather
    Rich_Lather's picture

    Why can't we get employment data from Social Security payroll taxes?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 11:59 | 571926 VWbug
    VWbug's picture

    this didn't pop as much as i thought it would, so i'm starting to short again.

    thanks to the bls guys for giving me the opportunity, one of many i expect we'll see over the next year or three

    sell above 1100   buy around 1040  easy as pie

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:04 | 571940 John McCloy
    John McCloy's picture

      The overal weekly volume was a joke last month it is a joke this month and will be even lower next week. There is nobody in this market.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:13 | 571962 traderjoe
    traderjoe's picture

    Data heavy week next week. I think we'll see a 200-300 point weekly decline. Option vols low right now. I have a put spread on the SPY. I'm hopeful...

    I'm also waiting for the weekend news events like there used to be in the heat of the 2008 crisis. 

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:02 | 571936 aztrader
    aztrader's picture

    I sent it to this guy too.  He had a bullish article on the numbers and I wanted to set him straight.  Here is his new article.............

    http://www.businessinsider.com/doubts-spread-about-jobless-data-as-government-admits-to-estimating-claims-in-everal-states-2010-9

     

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:15 | 571974 Everyman
    Everyman's picture

    Exxcellent work aztrader.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:05 | 571941 Bluntly Put
    Bluntly Put's picture

    Now guys before we jump the gun here there may be a very reasonable explanation. Perhaps the BLS is just outsourcing the bulk of it's work to India and or China and they are lagging in the proper weekly statistics.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:18 | 571950 plocequ1
    plocequ1's picture

    But, But I thought the Fed is buying stocks to ramp up the markets. What does a feeble BLS number mean anymore? The market will rally because the primal forces of nature known as the fed says it will. Screw the Euro, The deficit, The Dollar , The charts and all other pieces of worthless sad sack of shit news. The Fed is here to save the day.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:13 | 571961 Battleaxe
    Battleaxe's picture

    Of course when they "understate" the number and then revise it upward later, the week-to-week/month-to-month/year-to-year comparisons are doubly falsely rosy.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:15 | 571970 gookempucky
    gookempucky's picture

    Dont forget the rating companies also provide the usual steakburger shit sandwich--all for one and one for all.

    http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-159.htm

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:15 | 571971 GIANTKILR
    GIANTKILR's picture

    .......and what are you people going to do about it?!?!?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:36 | 571992 Village Idiot
    Village Idiot's picture

    .......and what are you people going to do about it?!?!?

     

    Keep getting the truth out there.  And if anyone else wants to step it up count me in.

     

    Edit:  Thanks for posting that comment, btw.  I was feeling really beat up this morning, but having one's face rubbed in shit has a way of getting me off my ass.  Don't know if your question was sincere, or just a laugh, but thanks.  I'm feeling much better.  sarc off

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:35 | 572020 HarryWanger
    HarryWanger's picture

    You have to admit that while it's not getting better, at least it's not getting worse. Staying rather flat. And yes, some of the economic data was pretty bad in July/August but again, some of it was once again not getting worse - staying flat.

    The market seems to just be reflecting that. I can't see a major "crash" barring some outside unforeseen macro event. But I can't see this running too high - maybe mid 1100's (1150ish or so) until there is real improvement.

    What does seem obvious though, is that the economy isn't getting much worse and has stabilized - at least for now.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:50 | 572056 Gromit
    Gromit's picture

    Stabilized won't get the job done. It's grow or die.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:21 | 572141 Village Idiot
    Village Idiot's picture

    Grommit -

     

    As a friend of mine likes to say, "You're either growing or dying, VI.  Which is it?"  "I'm growing, fucker," is usually how I respond.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:20 | 571983 goldmiddelfinger
    goldmiddelfinger's picture

    Statistics from The Bureau of Fat Fingers.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:21 | 571988 10044
    10044's picture

    Larry "the turd" Summers has to have an excuse to bash gold today; he got one

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:39 | 572030 Turd Ferguson
    Turd Ferguson's picture

    Hey...get it straight. Larry is a douchebag. I am a turd.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:44 | 572206 willien1derland
    willien1derland's picture

    I second the motion TF - Larry IS A douchebag

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:27 | 572002 Hopium
    Hopium's picture

    Guys, relax.

    Nothing new here - the numbers are always guesstimated during a holiday weekend. 

    Besides, States want to declare as high a number as possible - it's how they get reimbursement from the Feds.  So the idea that they are lowballing runs counter to their goals.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:59 | 572079 Everyman
    Everyman's picture

    "States" did not make the estimates, the BLS did the "estimating".  So there is something new here.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:28 | 572004 goldmiddelfinger
    goldmiddelfinger's picture

    An analysis of ALL US Govt reported economic data over the last year would also reveal a huge "friendly' bias to reports on the event and consequent "contrary" revisions. Somebody should should look into it besides D Rosenberg.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:30 | 572009 goldmiddelfinger
    goldmiddelfinger's picture

    Rush Lim just mentioned it! LOL

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:40 | 572036 Grand Supercycle
    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:42 | 572042 jbc77
    jbc77's picture

    Just another notch on the belt of systemic lies & fraud that has consumed our markets and governed our lives.

    Real journalism now only exits on the internet. I'm not quite sure people understand just how important sites like zerohedge have become. I'm also not sure where we would be without them.

    Well, ,I guess we could not expect that the elitist bunch would just roll over and let them system that has enriched them for so long just crumble without one hell of a fight.

    Data, fundementals, valuation, corporate earnings have all become so irrelevant. None of it means anything any longer. Scary and sad all in one.

     

     

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:55 | 572068 RunningMan
    RunningMan's picture

    Are the units in the picture thousands (assume yes)? If so, seems like the mean is 5k, which would seem to be a small error term. Am I reading this wrong?

    That said, during the last post-'recession' period 01-03 or so, the error terms appeared to be at least 2x, with much higher volatility. Manipulation or just noise given the measurement?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 14:03 | 572263 faustian bargain
    faustian bargain's picture

    If it were just noise, the mean would be zero. Instead, the mean over 10 years is about 2,500 underestimated jobless claims per week. (total, FWIW, about 10 x 52 x 2500 = 1.3 million). The error percentage of course varies based on the total each week, but clearly to have the vast majority of revisions made to one side over that long of a time period indicates something fraudulent going on.

    Downgrade BLS rating to FFF+.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:58 | 572076 yabs
    yabs's picture

    Harry

    as all this data is false then how can you come to the conclusion that the economy is getting better?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:04 | 572088 Trifecta Man
    Trifecta Man's picture

    My degree is in Quantitative Methods, and based on a sample of over 500 observations here, I can only conclude that either no one in the Bureau of Labor Statistics ever bothered to verify the accuracy of their estimation model, which shows incompetence, or they decided not to fix the underestimation bias, which shows coverup, or they deliberately created a low estimator, which is fraud.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:23 | 572145 FOC 1183
    FOC 1183's picture

    As a quant who sent in that chart...me too.

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:42 | 572199 willien1derland
    willien1derland's picture

    Great Analysis!

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:12 | 572104 DoctoRx
    DoctoRx's picture

    how tendentious and manipulative the US Department of Truth can be

    Tyler:  Otherwise known as the Ministry of Truth, Minitrue

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:27 | 572151 Skeebo
    Skeebo's picture

    So.... looks like this has been going on for over a decade at least.  Just how long has this habit been SOP at the BLS?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 13:41 | 572194 willien1derland
    willien1derland's picture

    TD - Great Post - 90% of the time is CRIMINAL, period - I wonder if they shared IT systems with Madoff Investments?

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 14:40 | 572408 i.knoknot
    i.knoknot's picture

    as i've long since thrown up my hands in resisignation to this silly BLS game... i look at Tyler's graph and wonder:

    if they are always biased the same way (+/-), doesn't that indicate that the data is actually relevant, if you simply subtract the effective bias?

    but then, is this a case where actually knowing 'more' doesn't really help save our sorry butts?

    i guess it's the feeling that when the majority sheeple don't perceive a problem, they won't motivate to fix it, and everyone who sees the reality of the problem gets to just sit there and watch in perpetual horror as this mess blindly continues along towards the cliff?

    it's like one of those escher drawings where the stairs always go up. "financial escher". i like it.

     

     

    Thu, 09/09/2010 - 18:34 | 573013 faustian bargain
    faustian bargain's picture

    in that case it'd probably be more useful to determine the average bias by using percentages instead of amounts.

    Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:57 | 573432 tom
    tom's picture

    The last BLS annual census, which counted to March 2009, found 1.35 million less jobs than the BLS’s initial estimate published in April 2009.

    http://keynesianfailure.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/delayed-deleveraging-meets-the-keynesian-endpoint/

    Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:12 | 573855 D-Falt
    D-Falt's picture

    Hmm...The guy paying you, who could fire many of your co-workers and you also, depends upon an optimistic number.  The numbers seem to always get revised later in a pessimistic direction.  THis is way more than just random stochastic noise.

    Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:02 | 573933 Winston Smith 2009
    Winston Smith 2009's picture

    Thank you!  This chart is exactly what I asked for here not long ago.  Now do the same with EVERY government-spewed economic figure and put it all in one article.  That should be rather revealing, even to the most propagandized idiot... er, I mean citizen.

    Tue, 09/28/2010 - 03:20 | 609333 Herry12
    Herry12's picture

    Thank u, i found this for a long time.
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