Visualizing The Propaganda "Error Term" Behind The Bureau Of Labor Statistics

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's announcement by the BLS that it decided to flat out estimate nearly a third of all initial jobless claims (courtesy of several large outliers) due to a "clerical holiday" which resulted in a major beat to estimates, caught many offguard by just how tendentious and manipulative the US Department of Truth can be. This is nothing. To visualize just how ridiculous the perpetual upward bias is at the Labor Bureau, we present a chart demonstrating the weekly jobless claim revisions by the BLS: in a nutshell, 90%+ of the time the bureau has revised prior claims upward, meaning it consistently strives to create an optimistic picture at the moment, only to have it revised it to its true, uglier state a week later when nobody cares. The implication is that fraudulent (and we sure hope this is inadvertent, although a 90% error rate definitely would invite a criminal investigation into just who and how stands to benefit from such an manipulative upward bias) data reporting is responsible for a persistent upward bias in data, and that fundamentals have been disconnected from the "government's reality" for years, confirming that the recent pathological breakdown in the market's relationship with fundamentals is not a new development. For example: today stocks would be flat to down if the BLS were to report the initial claims as they really are. Instead, here we are, almost 1% higher on nothing but soon to be revised lies. In other news, the China-US data distribution Joint Venture/Vassal State development is progressing better than expected.


h/t John Lohman

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vote_libertarian_party's picture

Guess I'll need to wait another day for the market crash...sigh.

VK's picture

BLS = Bureau of Liars and Shills. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bureau of Lying Standards.

After all, someone has to set the standard, right?

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe they are not liars, maybe government workers are just not very bright, and thus do not realize the metric they are using is flawed? 

Yesterday, at the Dept. of Health and Human Services meeting at the Hilton Americas in Houston, I randomly asked 5 attendees the question, "Are you going to vote for Obama in the election this fall?"  They all answered yes.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

HH,

I don't care how bright or stupid 95% of government workers are. The manipulation is handled at, or near, the very top of each entity. That's why the heads are political appointees.

In many ways, the lower career employees know this and are as captive to the system as anyone else. They do their job. I have a few friends in DC government. One told me this and claims it's the general consensus among his fellow gvt employees.

"If the big guys want to play with the numbers, it's on them. I just need to keep my head down and put in my 30."

bugs_'s picture

But all the left loves a whistleblower.....unless the whistleblower blows on the left.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe you say you do not care, CD, but my mind is frequently distracted by the evil or stupid question.

faustian bargain's picture

Allowing the stupid to be powerful is evil.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It was a turn of phrase to indicate that the 95% aren't responsible for the bogus numbers, regardless of whether they are stupid or not. Thus I don't care what they are when that's not the source of the manipulation. Stupid and bright government employees are the least of our worries.

TexasAggie's picture

Then they are blowing smoke.  If they are GS employees, it would practically committing a felony on the Mall to get them fired. They want the next promotion to GS14/15 and so they say it on the higher ups.

Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Maybe they are not liars, maybe government workers are just not very bright, and thus do not realize the metric they are using is flawed?"

I strongly suspect that their methodology is intentially biased to produce better than reality results.  This is already known to be the case with the CPI, the unemployment rate, etc.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

And as pointed out in the book "Greenspan's Bubbles," the government's ignorant use of its own manipulated figures results in garbage-in, garbage-out economic policies where a housing bubble isn't even evident in their own economic metrics!

oklaboy's picture

lyin beyatchessssss

Paper CRUSHer's picture

The BLS have been using that dreaded NOMAD contraption to compile jobless statistics.

Visualize this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLRS91IG6Ik&feature=related

ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

OK, but can it read a teleprompter?

Paper CRUSHer's picture

Nope,NOMAD would self-destruct.

 

Everyman's picture

On any other "estimate" the US Goverrnment puts out they usually precede it with a description of the outliers and departures from usual process involved.  The real question is "Why did they not report this "estimation" and the possible errors in it to inform the public and investors?"  I think the answer is now our Government does not care about "the Country" or "the people".  TPTB all are only concerned about their power and are starting to see it slip away.

In any other situation a government lying to their population would start the MSM or Lamestream media off on a hunt.  Not today, as this is their agenda, and they are protecting that agenda. 

Liberty is dying, and the first casualty is truth.

Have a happy day, and hat tip to DRUDGE REPORT for picking this up.  I wonder when CNBS is going to get back into the journalism business and actually report truth out there.  The GE Propaganda machine simply is a lap dog for TPTB.  If a crazy person destroyed the CNBS studios the only loss would be to the families of those in the studio.  Journalism however would suffer no loss whatsoeer and that is clearly shown by the Erin Burnett fiasco with Michael Pinto.

 

Sad day for "journalism" and it is getting just a bit sick.

DavidC's picture

I think it's Michael Pento, not Pinto.

DavidC

TexasAggie's picture

Remember, 90 to 99% voted for BO and they have to protect him to protect themselves, and they did not do any investigation of any Rat, but Republican's are looked at with a fine tooth comb.  As one was aksed about extra-martial affairs of Rats vs repubs and the answer was we know the Rats do it but the Repub are the family value party. Remember how many reporters? went to Alaska vs checking BO.

Everyman's picture

Stupid is as stupid does.

Everyman's picture

 

Stupid is as stupid does.

Everyman's picture

Multipost bitchez.

Everyman's picture

On any other "estimate" the US Goverrnment puts out they usually precede it with a description of the outliers and departures from usual process involved.  The real question is "Why did they not report this "estimation" and the possible errors in it to inform the public and investors?"  I think the answer is now our Government does not care about "the Country" or "the people".  TPTB all are only concerned about their power and are starting to see it slip away.

In any other situation a government lying to their population would start the MSM or Lamestream media off on a hunt.  Not today, as this is their agenda, and they are protecting that agenda. 

Liberty is dying, and the first casualty is truth.

Have a happy day, and hat tip to DRUDGE REPORT for picking this up.  I wonder when CNBS is going to get back into the journalism business and actually report truth out there.  The GE Propaganda machine simply is a lap dog for TPTB.  If a crazy person destroyed the CNBS studios the only loss would be to the families of those in the studio.  Journalism however would suffer no loss whatsoeer and that is clearly shown by the Erin Burnett fiasco with Michael Pinto.

 

Sad day for "journalism" and it is getting just a bit sick.

traderjoe's picture

A quintuple post? Is that a new record? 

Everyman's picture

The ZH site was acting weird.  Tyler PLEASE DELETE the last three posts.  Thank you.  For the rest Sorry.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If no one has replied to your "extra" comments, hit the "edit" button, delete the content and insert "dup". Fix some of the mess yourself since you kept on hitting the send button.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No new record. Not even close.

I saw 10 bagger about 6 months ago. What made it brilliant was that the hapless poster than did the ultimate save by removing the original comments in each one and substituting a running commentary of his/her surprise at what happened.

frankTHE COIN's picture

Lions          21

Christians     0

Blano's picture

Obviously not the Detroit Lions.

shargash's picture

The Christians are only down by 3 touchdowns. They can make that up with a few Hail Mary's.

faustian bargain's picture

Think they'll go for the 2-point conversion?

williambanzai7's picture

What if companies reported their earnings this way.....?

Hmmmmmmmm

DavidC's picture

What, you mean they don't?!

DavidC

EscapeKey's picture

There were stories doing the rounds about Cisco in the late 90'es (dot com era) - apparently, in a bid to boost earnings by the final cent (in order to beat estimates), they would load trucks with gear overnight, as they could technically count gear having left the depot as revenue.

 

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Also in the 90's, I repeatedly claimed my dick was bigger than it is, but never once made the claim it was smaller.  By the time the unwitting female figured out the true measurement, it was too late, as I had already achieved my goal.  All the best tricks are old tricks.

EscapeKey's picture

Well, yeah, but then lots of females do things to their looks which would send used-car salesmen to prison.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

When all ya got is 3 inches, all you can do is lie.

DaveyJones's picture

maybe the government could hire people to go in and pretend to be working somewhere. That way, we'd get two jobs for each. 

iDealMeat's picture

They also "destroyed" about 2.6B worth of over stock gear in 2000ish and took the write off.  Most of it found its way to South America and in Cisco's "Authorized" channel. If anyone ever looked into it they'd find a pretty big shit sandwich there too..

StychoKiller's picture

Do a wikipedia lookup on "MiniScribe."

Bankster T Cubed's picture

BLS sucks ass along with all other lying sacks of shit involved in economic statistics

Spalding_Smailes's picture

** ALERT **

                  Gold in free fall ....

                                             .

                                              .

                                               .

                                                .

                                                 .....

                                                       .

                                                        ..... Turd, whats going on ????

Pladizow's picture

40bps is a free fall???????????

You may want to inquire about a job at the BLS.

DavidC's picture

Off over 1%, what do you mean 40 basis points?

DavidC

Pladizow's picture

So, is 1% in Free Fall?

Now 70bps.

Even if 10% off all time high, I dont know if you could call it free fall.

 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Just easier to copy and paste from yesterday.

 

by Turd Ferguson 
on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 13:06
#569913

 

TM: My best guess is that there is a supply squeeze building in Silver on the Crimex. This has been helping to provide support for gold in the next pit over. Be sure to follow Harvey Organ's daily commentary. Here's the link:

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

My plan was to roll my Oct calls when we hit 1265. I didn't do it, however. I may come to regret my decision but today's action has given me confidence that 1265 will not hold. I doubt that the EE will allow gold to close above 1265 on Friday. They'll do everything they can to keep that kind of close off the weekly chart. I don't think they can buy themselves more than one week of time, however.

When the July correction hit, I tried to counsel everyone here that the chart damage inflicted by the EE would keep gold in a box through Labor Day. That prediction came to pass. Its now off to new highs. If not this week, then gold will climb through 1265 next Monday or Tuesday, setting up an initial run to about 1290. After a brief pause, we will see 1350 before Halloween and 1500 before Dec 10.

 

 

 

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  • Again, The EE will "throw the kitchen sink" at gold to keep it below 1267 on the close tomorrow. Let's see where the buyer(s) of size shows up today. I'd say between 1240 and 1245.
  • They will also try to whack silver back to 19.50, too.

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    traderjoe's picture

    Silver at $20 seems to be an important line in the sand. 

    docj's picture

    Indeed - poked above it 2x yesterday and again this morning, only to be ripped back down below 19.90 both times.