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VIX Has Biggest Term Jump Since March Lows
An indication of just how overbought the market may be is the recent sudden move by the VIX index, which over the past several days has undergone the biggest periodic move since the March market lows. The nearly 36% move in the VIX is the sharpest retracement in over 7 months. Whether it will subsequently drop form here as the S&P tests the 50 Day MA support level will likely be seen tomorrow once the latest GDP data is released.
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I'm setting my stops, man. Uncle Goldy revised his GDP estimate *downward* today - you know what THAT means - it's gonna come in around that, take a dip and then SKYROCKET, screwing the bears one final, glorious time before all hell breaks loose in 1Q10.....balee'DAT.
I'm setting my stops, man.
Good idea,,,,I've never observed markets like this in my lifetime, which is considerable,, Feel like a staggering drunk in a minefield. And that includes foreign markets as well as everything is beginning to quiver. Time to keep you powder dry and hope the DXY 36.34 ^ doesn't crash overnight.
Man this is murder
gawd hep meh - been burned so many times - dont know whether to load up shorts or stock up on FAS. UNGHHHHHH.....
If you're anything like me you've already loaded your shorts so many times lately...
Stop blaming the market. There's nothing new here. You were on the wrong side of the trade and undisciplined. If you were disciplined and the markets were acting squirrelly, you would have simply gotten out and waited until you recognized a pattern. I'm about as sick of bitching bears as I am of free market capitalists during the good times who want a bailout now.
Know thyself, trader!
Hey guru,
When the VIX went up, that's what I did....got out
Thanx for the deep tip. I feel so disciplined now
oh warnie, i dint know you were a ZH reader!! your secret is safe with me. I can has some of your billions, ya know, since you're the ultimate trader and all?
Fuck you in your ignorant ass ANON. Crawl back under your rock.
GDP has been released - 2.7!
A three year-old looking at that chart could tell you the VIX is still in a downtrend.
This more than likely is just a set-up for yet another (and possibly the last) bear trap.
*newsflash* CNBC: America pessimistic on economy? whaaat?
CNBS Foggy Bottom
Let me guess...Najerian boys are short.
Look at the divergence between the actual Vix and the etf VXX. Would you call that tracking error or slight negative correlation?!?!
VXX tracks SP 500 VIX short term futures index. Don't think it would be possible to actually track the VIX. S&P website has info on the index, and the VXX ETN actually tracks the index pretty well.
And it's tough as hell to trade VXX.
Irene Aldridge: Higher Trading Frequency = Lower Risk: http://advancedtrading.com/managingthedesk/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=2...
Play this stuff with the VIX ETF
http://etfdailynews.com/blog/?tag=vix
I wouldn't be surprise if Goldman is just helping the GOV by downwardly revising the GDP to 2.7 so if they release a higher number the market has a more positive reaction..breaking the markets negative trend over the past few days.
I mean Goldman has received countless billions from all their GOV pals, why not help them out by making tomorrows GDP look like a beat. Not like Goldman won't be on the right side of the trade anyways to make money along with the release also.
Good thinking. I was about to post the same thing. Wouldn't hurt GS to be wrong, and show their critics they don't have an inside line.
The movement of the Dow has really understated the magnitude of this recent selloff. A few high priced stocks like MCD, KO, WMT have propping up DJIA, but, the're have been a lot of stocks in the 20-30 billion mkt cap range that have taken 20-30% hits.
What are your thoughts on this if we have a longer term sell-off? Do you think the DOW will play catch-up with the S&P and NASDAQ? Do you think the DOW is being propped up by a "flight to quality" or something?
The s&p and nasdaq will always be somewhat more volatile than the dow because the stocks on the latter are huge caps which take more to move.
The recent price action we've seen on the dow is common at the end of a rally. Stocks that have lagged during the rally make a charge which masks the fact that the leaders have begun to retreat.
Yep, that's what happens with a 30 stock index. That's why nobody gives a shit about the Dow any more.
It's still very important in shaping investor psychology. On the evening news, you never hear about the naz or s&p, just the dow.
Not only is the Dow just 30 stocks, but the index is price weighted so that high priced component stocks like IBM have a disproportionate impact relative to components with low prices per share like GE.
Can a guy buy the vix on the vix yet? And a swap?
Give me a break!
Shall we make a bet on the bet that a bettor is making on the betting of a bettor?
Go back to sleep!
40muleteam borax
I wouldn't be surprise if Goldman is just helping the GOV by downwardly revising the GDP to 2.7 so if they release a higher number the market has a more positive reaction..breaking the markets negative trend over the past few days.
I mean Goldman has received countless billions from all their GOV pals, why not help them out by making tomorrows GDP look like a beat. Not like Goldman won't be on the right side of the trade anyways to make money along with the release also.
The promo is officially finished.
No more "green shoots" or "recovery" PR for a while guys.
Time to cash in the chips. No matter what the name of the so called "asset" (equity) is.
I can see another run up to unload the stops that were triggered during this selloff.
Sure, there might be the off chance that Cramer's mantra of buying the dips might find an audience.
Let them jack oil back to $85, I'll be buying DTO.
EEV is looking good. Short emerg. markets. Shanghai riverboaters will jump ship soon.
Through 1050 on SPX can't see any worthwhile support until 1030.
I can't see any support above 900 to be honest.
The pump was too much, too fast.
pigs are flying boys and girls - cramer "may" just have capitulated.
Amusingly, the little bounces in the SPX this week occur mostly when BAC approaches $15 (anything under $15.10 generally gets a tiny market rebound).
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BAC#chart2:symbol=bac;range=5d;compare=^gspc;indicator=split+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Snipped from Timmy Geithner's daily calendar (allegedly) 15 minutes ago
Phone coversation with Dick Bove
Timmy: I need you to upgrade Wells Fargo on CNBC
Dick: But... but... I just upgraded then downgraded them in a 4 hour span, and caught flack for it.
Timmy: I know Dick but you need to take one for the team... Team USA.You know you move markets, and one perfectly placed Dick Bove upgrade on CNBC Entertainment TeeVee is what we need here.
Dick: But really, I'm on my 9th job in the past 8 years, I am running out of firms to lose my credibility at.
Timmy: Don't make me call Larry.
Dick: ok, you win. Schedule me.
Personally, I'm short a god damn TON of Vega, expecting some channel trading into the Holiday ...so I hope it dwindles lower again.
Excellent observation. This is a telling sign that this is more than the 3-5% corrections we have been getting over the last 7 months. But I believe by using timing signals one is able to profit both from the upside and downside of this market.
time123
P.S. I get my timing signals at http://invetrics.com
You can buy options on the Vix. Low volume, wide spreads etc..etc..
VIX daily chart bullish warnings continue.
More:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0