VIX-VXV Spread At 3 Year Lows
The massive squeeze in VIX has pushed the volatility index to level unseen since 2007. As the chart below indicates, a drop of a few more points will push the VIX to a level indicative not of the Great Recession but of Greenspan's Great Moderation, a time where vol was so law, it effectively killed the swaption market in corporate IGs (green box). This is troubling as it indicates market complacency about risk is dangerously high (more on that in a latter post).
Yet even more troubling in terms of market positioning, is the VIX (1 month) - VXV (3 month) spread. That particular relationship has now revisited lows last seen in 2006. It appears that in addition to assuming "all clear" for the bond and inflation market, yet not so much clear down the line, the same line of thought is migrating to equities. Could near-term volatility be underrepresenting the true amount of risk on a normalized basis?