As of right now, the spot VIX has dropped to
16.80, the lowest it has been since April 20: rumor is that Goldman is
dumping all its legacy OTR long vol positions in a year end clearance
event. Ironically, as the VIX term structure chart shows, this is
virtually identical to the shape of the VIX curve last seen in the third week of April,
just days before the prior year end high was hit and followed by a
substantial snapback. Then again, in a market in which the TICK reading has been
negative virtually all day and stocks are higher, there is no point in
even attempting to predict what may happen. It appears the POMO market
makers are celebrating the Chairman's birthday and bypassing the bond
market entirely, going straight into stocks: after all what better
present for the world's biggest Central Planner than some serious wealth
effect creation... for 10% of the US population. Incidentally, the real
POMO, that of $8 billion in 7 year-ish bonds will conclude in 5 minutes.
Note the VIX curve as of April 15, 2010... and compare to today.
...And here is what happened to the just a few days after - highlighted in red: