Not much commentary needed here. Algorithms have succeeded in creaing another bear trap, as a function of a low-volume short squeeze, as all those who sold yesterday, remain out.
Tyler Durden - Founder
Marla Singer - Foil
Travis - Author
Cornelius - Author
Sacrilege - Senior Researcher
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on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:11
#114250
But one of these days the crash is coming. The foundations are just so unstable.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:13
#114253
I thought I was wrong when in a contributors comment I wrote, beware of the bear trap. I repeat, they will not let this go down unless there is exogenous event. Sorry, I despise it and recognize it for what it is worth.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:08
#114414
Absolutely no way in hell were they going to let stocks be down the day Queen Bitch Nancy rolls out the Moocher and Looter Handout Act of 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if they picked the last POMO day to do it for that reason.
Very, very, VERY glad I covered my DRN and MAC shorts at 3:45 yesterday. I'll be ready to roll 'em out again with pleasure tomorrow or Monday.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 18:19
#114598
Truer words have never been spoken. If they let it crash again it will be THE END for the present power structure.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:13
#114254
Nothing to do with algos this time, Tyler - we were ligitimately short term oversold. A corrected is needed here for a continued drop.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:31
#114273
Why is a correction needed? That is another propagated Pavlovian engagement.
Spare me the econometrics. Bottoms can fall out. Corrections do not have to be mechanistic.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:43
#114287
Likely you are both correct.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:48
#114292
Not much room for the rally to run. POMO's over, Oil at $80, european leaders already sounded the alarm when EUR/USD hit 1.5
If we get new highs, it will be a gift.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 18:24
#114607
POMO's end doesn't mean end of monetization/QE. It most likely means the beginning of stealth QE. You think the Fed announces all of it's (illegal/criminal) activities before performing them?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:15
#114329
Well said molecool. A long overdue pullback, which then reversed on strong GDP. The sulking, conspiratorial slant of ZH is a gift and a curse.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:18
#114258
Yeah, but, you can also posit that today's action is a bull trap designed to suck back in those who were shaken out in the last week.
You'd have to believe it's more crowded on the bull side as the bears have been destroyed long ago.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:27
#114437
Oh no, Brett, bears are alive and have not been destroyed. Rumors of our death are overstated.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:31
#114441
No Brett. The bears are alive and well. We're just not letting our bets ride very long.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:19
#114260
This market is like trying to push an inflatable tire underwater. So much effort goes into getting it under with heavy volume, and then it flies back up effortlessly with no resistance on hot air. The fix is still in.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:25
#114263
Yes but how much longer can it go down on volume and up on fresh air. All this does is increase the complacency in the market, which is why the majority are now positioned long equities, long commodites and short the dollar.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:38
#114279
Are your positions marked to prices or volume ? Think about it and you will come to your senses. Traders trade !
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:26
#114354
One word - puts!
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:29
#114358
I'll sell you all you want.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:25
#114269
The majority is not short the dollar yet in my opinion. Based on the number of fools trumpeting the return of the dollar yesterday, I think that's kind of obvious. Look at the DXY chart today - if it closes around here (75,88) or lower, I'm going to assume a resumption of the downtrend.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:30
#114272
It's interesting seeing graphical manipulation. Usually it's the graph manipulating the underlying data. Now the graph faithfully shows the underlying manipulation. Hands are a symbol of manipulation because that's what we use to manipulate the physical world to our needs and wants. Are we in good hands or purely manipulative hands?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:33
#114275
One need only look to FRE to see that this is HAL9000's work.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:35
#114276
Low volume, not much of a squeeze, just a nice low volume premarket ramp.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:35
#114277
The pickins on the long side seem to be gettin slim.
I've shown nice profits on stocks bought in June; small profits on the Sept purchases, but, the October buys have gone down the toilet.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:38
#114280
All I know is that today I feel like I've got a large Ananconda wrapped around my neck. The Squeeze is incredible.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:38
#114281
Whats to stop the gov't from publishing bullshit GDP data like they do in China? Is there really anyway to check this? They could have printed 5% GDP and people would have had to accept it as is.....
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:43
#114288
If you've read Reggie Middleton's work on the banksters and the precarious position they're in, plus the major sources of their revenues (swaps & equities) it stands to reason there is no way in hell the Fed is going to let this market tank. Whatever it takes, that's what they'll do. Risk? What risk? Too big to fail now covers it all. Be happy.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:43
#114289
My technicals are telling me the descent is likely to resume on Monday or Tuesday. My algo is set to open a short position soon, probably Friday afternoon. The market will be set up nicely over the weekend for "buy on the dips" dips to give us some volume to sell into.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:21
#114343
Stick to ocarina playing .
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:30
#114364
Wow, comedy gold right there. How long did it take you to come up with that one?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:50
#114293
Wildebeests! Where is Robo?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:50
#114295
I've actually took short positions and made good profit. In my gut I sincerely hope to see the recovery for the country and for the world, but having suffered SO MUCH from irrational exuberance that I cannot stand seeing another one in the formation. I look forward to a healthy growth at a sustainable pace fellows. Cheers.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:58
#114304
As always a manipulated short squeeze to keep the plates spinning a bit longer.
Money is pumped into the system from those who don't have much to those who don't deserve it and have lots.
A Robin Hood in reverse, which is totally disgusting and obscene and immoral. But the Feds have created the ultimate in moral hazard so those who could took full advantage knowing they would get away with it.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:01
#114309
NOBODY believes in this market. It's a house of cards and it will crumle very shortly and violently
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:03
#114311
But will it? There are too few with the ability to throw it around where ever they want it to go with the maximum benefit for themselves and if that if the Fed and governments are happy with it blowing yet another bubble they won't do anything about it
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:17
#114333
GS is getting short and will ride the
first 2000 points down Japaneses style,
just as they did buying the March lows.
Cyclical top ....short away.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:54
#114399
any links to that comment? That would be helpful
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:22
#114345
In that case, then the computers will own all the stock and they can trade it amonst themselves.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:19
#114337
So Mr. Unum.... what's plan B just in case the crumble does not come to pass ?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:15
#114328
Is EW analysis ever right???? by that, I mean, is it ever correct without endless reworking of wave counts?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:31
#114365
Okay... so now we are worried about being right. Has the world according to ZH been right ? Charts, bullsh*t, and self righteousness are the ZH path to ruin.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:33
#114371
On the squeeze, which I assume is bank cash from PPT via bond open market sales and insider data, I see very little retail ownership of equity. I think the banks and FED have a vast ownership of the stock market and will not let the market fail because it's their market and it's their stock holdings.
It's like the DeBeers Diamond Monopoly-diamonds are worth money because they control the supply. We call that monopoly where I hail from.
Whenever they want to pickpocket the retailer(smaller and smaller) they just go for the VW/Porsche Squeeze. A great trick, if there is no transparency and you get data ahead of time.
Goldman Sachs alerts users to a lowered GDP expectation at the 11th hour. WTF is that? I knew it was lure the minute they said that.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:41
#114384
You don't think that, in the course of the rally, Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds have taken alot of inventory off the banks' and I-banks hands?
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:53
#114398
I think that would entail a meltup-or panic buying. I have had messages from fund advisors who know this rally is on thin ice and have their fingers on the trigger button for selling. So, any panic selling gets sopped up by the PPT. The Hedgies are too scared to short-especially if certain priviledged parties get information ahead of time and can go counter intuition. They were rolling in 2 weeks ago, but there is a lot of cash.
Basically, the PPT is allowing the FED to recapitalize their member banks using insider data and direct intervention. They use all sorts of techniques to rob other Central Banks and funds.
There is nothing harder on a fundamentalist than a HUGE force behind counteractions. If this entity(the USGov) is not interested in making money for itself (just for the FED and banks)then that is incredibly disruptive to the natural progression. If a massive client like the USgov wants to sell low and buy high, that fracks the whole system.
These Bear squeezes have been damaging to my accounts, but I'm benefiting from seeing the system. You could almost trade off the predicted PPT desired action. Now Bond Bid-to-cover is back to healthy, the dollar can die off again and stocks are off to the races.
A failed rally to 10100 would be indicative of a longer term decline though. Look for retail # fudging by USG to keep the markets aloft in a dreadful retail environment. I'd say in one week if the market doesn't make it back up to 10100 you can consider that a stall out.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:33
#114372
Sorry TD, but it's pretty normal when you break a six month trendline to go back and retest it. I'm not worried. I'll hold my shorts until Monday and then we'll see. Window dressing, oversold bounce, etc. No volume is good. Short's the side to be on. Riding the storm out. Fuck Goldman. I just threw that last one in because, well, fuck Goldman.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:39
#114381
stop over thinking, its about the DXY and if you look at a truly long term chart we have plenty of downside left to run on that, and Ben is not going to stop really, the rates will be at 0 for at least another year, ben's biggest belief was that we pulled out free money too soon in the 30s so OBVIOUSLY HE IS GOING TO KEEP IT IN THERE FOR LONGER THAN ANYONE THINKS.
THE DOLLAR CAN GO MUCH LOWER AND STILL NOT BE THE LOWEST IN HISTORY.
STOP THINKING SO MUCH, AND MAKE MONEY, BOTH WAYS.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 16:29
#114502
If you have a sec to spare please let me know how!
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 17:31
#114551
Simple really....stick with short term holds on ETFs playing the oversold and overbought status with bull and bear instruments, respectively. Keep tight stops and ride the dragon.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 17:32
#114555
Simple really....stick with short term holds on ETFs playing the oversold and overbought status with bull and bear instruments, respectively. Keep tight stops and ride the dragon.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:46
#114394
somebody please explain to me what happens to EM, Brazil specifically in terms of volume.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:14
#114418
Not much commentary needed because this is exactly what one would expect on up days and down days, and therefore close to irrelevant.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:17
#114421
They are looking to instill confidence and the illusion of control while looting the place. The algo is simple, are short term rates zero? Is the ten year < 4%? If so be short at your own peril.
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 19:08
#114651
If Quantitative Easing is "over" legally then the FED has to monetize in "other ways."
Most of that will be illegal.
Some it will be the remainder of Currency swaps. Some will be MBS's in the holding of the FED by central banks. They can pile bonds on Centrals for their Agency crap and monetize that money-as long as the Treasury can print bonds.
NOW, the question is, can the FED keep interest rates low if they cannot buy bonds on auction.
Does the FED have the money sop up bonds and will rates start going up badly which equals higher mortgages and stock market stall? Where are the bond vigilantes?
Look for TARP 2.0 if the market rolls over
on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 19:09
#114654
If Quantitative Easing is "over" legally then the FED has to monetize in "other ways." Most of that will be illegal. Some it will be the remainder of Currency swaps. Some will be MBS's in the holding of the FED by central banks. They can pile bonds on Centrals for their Agency crap and monetize that money-as long as the Treasury can print bonds. NOW, the question is, can the FED keep interest rates low if they cannot buy bonds on auction. Does the FED have the money sop up bonds and will rates start going up badly which equals higher mortgages and stock market stall? Where are the bond vigilantes? Look for TARP 2.0 if the market rolls over
on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 04:52
#114884
What is the total market worth of the Fortune 500?
Perhaps they have all been bought up with the bail-out money.
Dow Jones is maybe a private game now, and they just invent prices for their own amusement.
on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 05:28
#114886
Tyler, dont know if you have seen this, but heads up man http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aOTHAVSwKBz8
Do your magic.