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Volume Abysmal As Nobody Left Trading
The intraday accumulation volume difference in the SPY is 146 million compared to an average of 220 million by EOD: a solid 33% below baseline. Today is the lowest volume day since April 26, when the market was near 2010 highs. If one assumes (simplistically) that 70% of normal daily volume is HFT and computer based, human traders have added -3% to today's trading volume. Everyone is now out watching football. Yet even with this abysmal volume, the market still was unable to stage a melt up: are even the algos fans of the Cariocas?
Longer-term
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If you notice, volume fell off when the last major melt up occured, so we could be at the beginning of a new HFT melt up. Tomorrow will be a major (false) up day, but that is strictly my opinion.
*Edit* We are fast approaching the death cross on the 50/200. Get locked and loaded, your rations ready, and bolt your doors shut.
I'm not going to lie - I got tired of seeing five digit losses based on Skynet BS and automation - so I cashed out part of my short positions. On the other hand.. I'm waiting for the next false run up to reload on the shorts.
I must admit, I never believed in TA until this year. I used to invest based on fundamentals, but that has gone by the wayside since algos now make up about 90% of the trading. Below is why I think tomorrow is going to be an up day.
wtf, for some reason I cannot get the pic to work, but it is located here http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4152/sp500.jpg
Big day for tobacco.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) June 28, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of the Department of
Justice's (DOJ) appeal seeking disgorgement of profits in its case against the
leading U.S. tobacco manufacturers had no immediate rating impact on Altria
Group Inc. (BBB/Stable/A-2; parent company of Philip Morris USA), Reynolds
American Inc. (BBB-/Stable/--; parent of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.), and
Lorillard Inc. (BBB-/Negative/--; parent company of Lorillard Tobacco Co.).
We view the Supreme Court's denial of petitions to review disgorgement of past
profits as a potential remedy to the DOJ case to be favorable to the industry.
Specifically, we believe that the ruling removes the threat of a substantial
adverse financial impact that could have resulted from the utilization of
financial disgorgement as a potential remedy against the manufacturers.
Although the manufacturers' appeal to review findings that the industry
violated federal laws under the Racketeer Influences and Corrupt Organization
(RICO) Act was also rejected, we do not believe that this rejection will have
adverse financial implications on the manufacturers. Despite the favorable
ruling with respect to the threat of disgorgement, we continue to monitor the
ongoing litigation and regulatory environment, which remains a risk factor to
the rated domestic tobacco manufacturers.
Sorry to cavil, but you can tell by the way the ladies are holding the cigarettes that neither is a real smoker (so to speak).
"neither is a real smoker (so to speak)."
Yes, I noticed that. If they were real smokers, the correct hand position would be a backwards (and sufficiently elarged) capital C. Unless they were left handed, of course. Chain smokers would be holding up two C's.
Not to say they're not smokers in a different sense of the word. :-)
pole ?
does MO have plans to grow weed? potential growth industry. just sayin'
http://gossipteen.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/kristen-stewart-smoking...
That would be economic stimulus that works.
Gettin' the munchies there, Hank?
Now that Krugman's using the D word it's official, QE 2 is coming. The HFT's will perform as ordered.
Q/E 2 won't cut it. It's going to have to be Q/E SQUARED. This had best be a $10 trillion guarantee on all troubled securities or we're going to tank like it's 1937.
i now have less than fifty bucks in my trading account that i've had since 1998 and once held over $30k. I've pulled all the money out over the course of the last year. obviously, i've made no trades at all in 2010. I've made zero contributions to my 401k in 2010.
i hope i live long enough to watch wall st. die so that i can piss on its grave and kick over its tombstone.
Get a grip.
okay, maybe that was a tad over the top. i apologize. i'm still not going to voluntarily send any of my money to wall st. i'm done feeding those parasites.
Fuck getting a grip. This is the type of intelligence and raw feeling that this country's citizens have had worked out of them by disgraceful corporations, schools, a complicit media and "self policing" sheep.
I commend you on your ACTIONS....and find good humor in your words.
i hope i live long enough to watch wall st. die so that i can piss on its grave and kick over its tombstone.
Amen, brother. A-men.
On the cusp of 3.99%
COUPON MATURITYDATE CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE TIME 3-Month 0.000 09/23/2010 0.13
/
.13 0.008 / .008 16:00 6-Month 0.000 12/23/2010 0.19
/
.20 0.006 / .006 16:00 12-Month 0.000 06/02/2011 0.26
/
.27 -0.003 / -.003 16:06 2-Year 0.625 06/30/2012 100-00
/
.62 0-01½ / -.024 16:00 3-Year 1.125 06/15/2013 100-11
/
1.01 0-04+ / -.048 16:08 5-Year 1.875 06/30/2015 100-07+
/
1.83 0-11½ / -.076 16:00 7-Year 2.500 06/30/2017 100-03
/
2.49 0-17½ / -.086 16:07 10-Year 3.500 05/15/2020 104-01+
/
3.02 0-24 / -.087 16:05 30-Year 4.375 05/15/2040 106-13½
/
4.00 1-01½ / -.058 16:05
Talk about bending over backwards to get under the bar...
How low can they go?
As with any severely addicted person, "low" is a relative term. For some "low" is losing their job because they are addicted. For others, "low" is losing their job, family and home. For others it's hitting the street that marks the "low".
How low they can go will ultimately be determined by you and I. We determine how low they will go by how long we will tolerate their (and our) insanity. I don't have high hopes for a high low. We the people won't demand this insanity stops until we've hit our own bottom and, after losing everything we have, finally begin to act like we have nothing left to lose.
make sure you never loose your guns and ammo
CD - I couldn't agree more. Although many on ZH speak with disgust of the American masses not waking up until 'American Idol' is switched off, I think there is a case to be made that this behavior should be expected. It's easy to find comparative lows in this world without even traveling very far. Americans, compared to Mexicans, have a much higher quality of life in general. Even compared to Canada, in a few ways, Americans enjoy richer lives. I think the very ability for Americans to switch on the TV; that most Americans are WELL above the bottom rung of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, supports the case that Americans may respectfully endure very deep lows, much deeper than where we're at now, before awakening. I think, collectively, we have a lot more to loose.
Furthermore, many people's minds in America have been completely won over by the machine. Just check out any immigration article on Yahoo and search for the bold, capitalized, and underlined emphasis on the word "illegal"... because U.S. law is the final word in their minds. This complete submission to the word of law, I believe, engenders in the public a conveniently rational justification for inaction.
Finally, dominant American religion grooms people to believe endurance of the lowest lows as righteous.
The perfect storm brews.
... same old American myopic "we are the world" ("we are the universe") bullshit !!
Sorry for the plagiarism, but ...
Ah," becalmed in a sea of bullsh*t"...
Thanks for the comment.
Citizens of the U. S. will hit a social/economic bottom when things get worse faster than they can lower their standards. That could be a waterfall drop, so a bottom will come faster and sooner than most of us think. The response could be ugly.
Quality of life? I lived in Mexico for 10 yrs around people with enough to only get thru the week. But their faces were serene compared to the faces you see on the socal freeways. We have more shit, maybe. But that's not how I measure quality!
I'll definitely grant you that quality of life is measured differently between people, even of similar backgrounds. The intended meaning behind my "quality of life" comment was that people have ample leisure time and the resources and freedom to do what they want with that time. Americans fit that definition very well... especially those suckling at the governmental teat.
Please excuse the wikipedia reference, but I think it'll suffice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yearly_working_time_2004.jpg
Mexicans work 200+ more hours/year than the US, and although Canadians work fewer, they don't share some freedoms... such as hand gun ownership. (Yes, I'm stretching here)
I'm just trying to say that many on ZH and elsewhere wonder why the pitchforks aren't being brought out. CD talked about people hitting their lows, and I think Americans at large have a long long way to go before they consider themselves at "the bottom".
Socal is a special form of hell IMHO.
I've spent a short time in Monterrey, Mexico where people did not appear happy at all. However, while in Hidalgo Nuevo León I saw nothing but kindness and what did in fact seem like serenity.
Ah," becalmed in a sea of bullsh*t"...
__
HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours.
__
WOW! WOW! WOW!
10yr at 3.01%
30 yr at 4.00%
The only thing algos are doing is holding this market higher where it would be at 5000 by now, that is the new scam being run.
Wait until this dog really tanks, 10yr is going to 2%. Then, I'll ditch treasuries and buy wads of gold....as we know what Benron will do once he hits his "number".
I see Tyler use the "Accumulation Volume Difference" a lot but I still have no idea where to find it or what it means. Is there possibly another name for it? Like Accumulation Distribution Line? I use think or swim now and have a shit load of indicators but I don't think I have this one. Than again, I now know he uses Bloombergs software so maybe this is just something I'm not gonna have access to. Any feedback would be helpful!
You can use On-Balance-Volume instead.
I heard theres some flaws in OBV. The person who created OBV is now using "Price and Volume Trend" which is supposed to give a more accurate representation of price action and volume. From what I've found, it is more accurate than OBV but I still think whatever Tyler is using is probably better since he's pretty damn smart.
Okaaaaaaay.
Your reply smells of a quick and dirty 'google for this term and post a clever response' response.
And yes, Bloombergs are the wins.
Okay, same guy that developed the OBV said it had flaws and he addressed it with a modified version of the OBV. He named it the "Price Volume Trend." Is this a sufficient answer?
I don't know where you could find on thinkorswim, but it indicates for a given time in the day how far you are above or below the average volume (30, 50 days?) the current volume is. So if you were always at average volume for a given time in the day you would have a straight flat line. As for today we can see that the accumulated volume towards the end of the day was well below the average.
So basically I don't need a fancy indicator. I just need to have a base average and game the volume against it? Sounds simple enough.
With Italy, England, France and the US out of the World Cup I doubt whether there's anyone of consequence left in the trading world who will really care about football for the next couple of months.
It's stifling hot in London, NYC, and Chicago, and there's a long weekend coming up in the US, so I think a lot of people have decided to take it easy for the next couple of weeks.
Now is time to watch REAL football. Time to see Robinho, Klose and Messi.
Most Yanks don't watch football ... all those strange sounding countries make it too confusing!
For those of you having trouble trading this market do as Jason Bourne's girlfriend says to him "figure it out" and stop the whinning. It is not that difficult to make money-take what the market gives.
Thanks Blankfein. I've probably gotten better advice from Stevie Wonder on how to drive the Autobahn..
Very funny- maybe you would do better if you followed people with some "vision". Also, last time I checked, "Blankfein" was doing alright in thee monetary department.
No my point is your comment is one that Blankfein would say - nothing visionary, full of crap, and short on specifics. Maybe I should've called you Robert Kiyosaki. And don't be silly enough to talk about Blankfein's money and visionary crap - he's just a thief in a white collar.
So,,, you're saying, "buy the dips"? Maybe "Sell the rallies"?
It appears that the market is setting up for a big move. As to which direction, I haven't the slightest idea.
Can anyone tell me..when someone says that 70% of trading volume is HFT trading does this figure include traditional program trading that the NYSE says accounts for roughly 20- 25% of trading volume..thanx
What? Low volume during the summer doldrums? Surely a conspiracy!
Who a hell will trade when Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano are bashing the Chilean team?
After watching the Chile game, I am hard pressed to imagine Brazil not winning unless Spain steps it up.
I have not seen Brazil defend in numbers like that, while still being able to send fullbacks forward as strikers.
the algo screw job;
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading-markets/trading-101/high-frequency-a...
Where exactly do they dream this sh*t up at?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cautious-consumers-may-fuel-apf-966568080....
My income is the same is was last month, the month before that, the one before that, etc.....The above link is exactly the type of propaganda this government loves to spew. I think we can about guarantee more bailouts being offered up, but the people need to stand up and tell them NO!!! NOT ANYMORE!!
This is bullshit