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At this point there is little one can add or say. Today the marching orders were for an S&P 1,100. And we will get it. One way or another.
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The mutual funds are buying because of 401k contributions. I'm not sure that anyone else is buying though, at least not with the intention to hold. The wide swings in sentiment and value are pretty telling, this is a speculators market and not an investors market. Even in the midst of depression not every day will have bad news, and not every day will be down on the market. It isn't necessarily manipulation, although it could be. Ultimately there are the same number of shares bought as sold on any given day, it's just a matter of where the perceived price should be. Everyone wants the cathartic release of a big plunge that finally signals capitulation. It may yet come, but more likely this will continue, up and down, for some time.
I am shopping for a house right now, in a relatively prosperous midwest city that dodged the housing bubble and subsequent collapse. A realtor told me this weekend that sales were down 50% in May and June, and July has started off even worse. Foot traffic is down even more. Every listing agent I've talked with has been quite open that the price is 'negotiable' or even 'don't be afraid to just make an offer even if it's low'. If you wanted to start a business today, what could you do that would make money, anything? The company I work for has 10s of thousands of employees with growing profits and margins, but head count is down with revenue and backlog falling. I used to follow INTC closely and know that they had a license to print money but were horribly inefficient. So it doesn't surprise me they can find profits now. When was their peak and how far are they from it now? This board has a long term view, but not the patience for long term results.
The bottom isn't coming tomorrow, but it will come. In the meantime, the last few months have been fantastic for trading. Maybe I will get blown out of my current shorts, I won't win every trade. But I'll still be here. The world has too many widgets and widget makers, and the people buying widgets are all either tapped out, or about to be. This only ends one way...
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