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Volume Is Back
Banks have been lamenting the abysmal volume in stocks over the past two months, and threatening they will fire people and stuff. Well, all they need are a few more days like today. The chart below says it all.
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Down, baby down!
I am Jack's complete lack of suprise.
an hour and 15 mins to go ... the shorts are gonna capitulate again and get spanked as usual
Yep, here they come. Not as though anyone is paying attention, however.
I'd say a rally up to about -3 on the SP and then fade back into the close at about -8, around 1117.
Turd, not bad, not bad at all.
Next week? Up or down? I say down. Now, I'll obviously be proven wrong. What say ye?
You lucky dog. :)
Interestingly, Marc Faber now also admits that a full blown deflationary collapse is a possibility:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/marc-faber-dow-stocks-1000/2010/08/0...
Not really, it's just a necessary step along the way to his hyperinflation prediction... I think he's crazy as a shithouse rat. So we toil away in deflationary hell, which is blamed upon the expansion of credit and loose monetary policy, and we somehow wish to repeat our mistakes? Fat chance...
If we ever take our foot off the gas pedal for too long, we will never QE after that... it's straight down til naturally corrected. I predict we will have progressively smaller baby step QEs from here on out, representing QE musical chairs.. a few of the lame will be chairless each round and auctioned off to the remaining in a last bid for consolidation (power). We're in the controlled demolition phase, post credit collapse. There will be no reflation, nor attempt when we all know of its futility. The victors of the wealth gap want their spoils and they'll take their pound of flesh through our deleveraging and the deleveraging of the shitbird companies they have controlled into sorry financial condition. And, frankly, we'll be calling for it... nay, DEMANDING it... wine and dine us on the way up, fuck us on the way down.
His expected hyperinflation simply isn't going to come at the heels of decades of deflation and depression... so, if it's coming, it had better be in the short/medium term. I don't think there is any political will nor ability to do so...
interesting perspective, thanks
The precondition for hyperinflation is either the collapse of tax revenues to service the debt, or debt service exceeding the tax revenues available, or, coming to us soon enough, a combination of the two. Once dollars exacted by taxation are insufficient to pay the debt, there is no choice but to print, monetize, etc. The choice of overt default is not on the table.
The problem is that we're going to get the cock of austerity crammed down our throats in short (big and long? *creepy voice* GIRTHEEEE *creepy voice*) order. The neat part about it, we have a ridiculous amount of domestic default that may occur before we have to start getting too creative with our international creditors. My guess is that by the medium term, it will be painfully obvious if we have taken the necessary measures to right the ship so to speak. I have incredible reservations we'll be able to do so given the inevitable feedback loop... at that time, we'll have a choice.
My guess is that we simply repudiate. At that time, the world will look so different than it does now (defaults, fears realized, etc.) and repudiation/outright default will be vastly more... acceptable. We'll be more internationally reserved and withdrawn... economically and militarily.
But, I'd hedge accordingly (or at least attempt to).
Wouldn't hyperinflation also include growth?? Don't see it. Another view might just be "stagflation" which can result from "no growth" but excessive debt and currency flooding. Slack in this economy just doesn't prove out hypo theory.
Gotta love how hyperinflationists always use the axiom that "default is impossible." Because, you know, no government has ever defaulted before.
Oh, they'll have to print the money in order to send off your Social Security and Medicare checks? It's touching that you think they even give a damn.
Volume going up for which side of the trade? LMAO.
Exactly Crusty. Geesh.
Volume, glorious VOLUME!
Taken out in the Euro, now short GB
WOW! Finally kind of an interesting day.
Watch that ES. 1101 would seem to be kind of important. 1105 last.
Awaiting the breakdown through S3 and subsequent freefall?
This is what makes the markets being up on such low volume since last July incomprehensible. Cash and capital are being destroyed daily without all these unemployed and all that is left is growing newly tainted debt and fewer dollars to service the debt. Look at the bond market and you tell me people are not going to run to grab onto whatever cash still remains in these paper false prices in stocks.
What a corner these guys have backed themselves into.
"What a corner these guys have backed themselves into."
That would be "us", not "themselves".
.< redacted dot.
The chart speaks volumes (pun intended) regarding what's been going on. The term "whistling through the grave yard" would aptly describe the past month in the stock markets. The bond market's been seeing ghosts for a while now and has responded "correctly".
BOO!
And everyone knows it as well. Traders know they are getting tempted in and a fall is inevitable but it is reminiscent of a game of chicken. Step on in and try to get out before we take it all away. How can anyone expect a return to investment when the market defies fundamentals? I hope the clowns at the Fed think it was worth it.
In 2008 when everyone rushed to treasuries, the dollar index gained as well. This time the dollar index isn't. It appears that foreigners aren't rushing into dollars like last time.
Unrelated, stocks are still up for the week.
TD, a few more days of volume and we might be back down to DOW 7,000....banks will still have to layoff people...
Yeah, but this one goes to 11!!
Wow, look at the 10 year. Looks like it wants to go back to the 2008 highs.
Can anyone lighten me up what's the deal with that?
S&P withdraws AAA/A-1+ ratings on Swiss National Bank
http://www.forexlive.com/123921/all/sp-withdraws-aaaa-1-rating-on-swiss-national-bank
isn't the real story here the break down in correlation b/n weak USD/strong US equities? seems to me anyone predicting directionality is smoking crack.
no this is not the real story... this is old news that has been expected. The carry is all that matters.... and speaking of the YEN... look at that bastard go!
Nah, Gringo's correct. The correlation break is clear and beginning to appear more frequently. USD weakness is indicative of the forward look to QE2 (US weaker economy than others....) and may not ,(repeat) not clear the way for higher stock prices. Perhaps if it does, albeit temporary, any reasonably bright trader/investor will respond accordingly. Good luck everyone because what an investor requires in this environment is deeep pockets, patience and a little bit of LUCK! They better know how to average price in the face of the wrong direction too!
Own physical PM's, long potash and miners, short treasuries (LTw/50% dry powder), short equities and long CB's. Love stocks from DJIA4000 which is due sometime near the end of 2011.
It's a beautiful day! Half gap fill off the open and then a nice sell off. Very nice day so far. The latest run up looks like a classic pump and dump on the daily charts to me... It'll be interesting to see if we find support at the 50 dma as well. I don't touch the SP500 but trade the R2K futures contract and noticed that it's usually a leader in direction among the other equity indices. The R2K did not participate in yesterday afternoon's ramp job which I thought was evident of a potential ongoing decline. We've briefly dipped below the 200 dma today but are sitting right on top of the 50 dma. Got a bearish divergence the last few days. This is getting very interesting.
Yup! welcome back volume. Just in time to make me some $. I shorted yersterday at $112.75 and covered this morning at $111. I know it could go lower but I met my target and can enjoy the rest of my day now.
I bet your a junior.
volume spx inverse correlation holds
Over / Under on FDIC Fail Friday? 5?
Wouldn't be shocked for a meltup to around even today either...
Riiiight yea now suddenly everyone got that trade nailed as planned.
Hey wheres Leo today? Havent seen him around at all...probably uploaded some new Chinese solar stock charts I guess.
Well....volume spiked during the 30 minute sell-off. As soon as volume stopped the sell-off stopped. Or visa versa.
Looks to me like it is taking less volume to to drive the markets down in a flash which is to be expected as the volume has been increasingly lighter on these "rallies".
Telepromter in chief...."welcome to the recovery" coming in 5....4....3....opps.
recovery... lol about as reliable as those sellside bastards 2011 90+ estimates
Please oh please give us another flash crash today!!!! It would make my weekend!
Turn off the machines!!!!!
Sweet! Better have all this "out of range" orders in place, hee hee! Then worry if "hall monitors" void them later. What a frekin' joke.
Dumb Question:
What is the red colored negative drop-off that appears to happen towards the end of most days? I am referring to the bottom half of the chart.
Thanks.
Volume drop.
How can you have negative volume?
No you can't but it's a "relative" thing. The chart feature is designed to help you determine volume surges vs drops relative to trend. Hopefully, that makes sense to you.
Negative volume relative to the moving average used in the chart.
For example, it might be that at the end of the day, the volume was half a million shares less than the 20, or 30 or 50 day average of volume. I don't have the actual chart picture up to see what average Tyler used.
Thank you rubearish10 and Cognitive Dissonance, it makes sense now.
Ford (F) and Gen Elec (GE) volumes are pretty low...Las Vegas Sands (LVS) low vol. and still 25%+ above its one month low...all are hedge fund or HFT targets.
Are the jobless going to Vegas to gamble?...I thought they could do it from home with their new IPads?
Tyler, I found a stock Excel Marine Carrier (EXM) that has a 465 mil. market value that is selling for 750 mil. new stock and warrants.
Isn't that a very good short right now?
Corporations are issuing debt as fast as possible but supposedly have all this cash on hand. What is this telling us?
We've still got Consumer Credit figures to come - the day isn't over yet.
DavidC
And so, the front running begins.....Up 6 handles in ten minutes!!
ramp up into the weekend. nothing to see here. ramp up futures sunday night, gap up on monday morning...
Hope you all bought the dip. :)
Leo, I gotta hand it to you.
Nowhere to be found all morning and then you have the audacity to taunt everyone once your buddies on the PPT show up.
I can't even bring myself to call you any bad names like douchebag or jackoff.
Oops.
Yawn, just keep buying them dips you turd!
No Leo, You keep buying the dips, and please tell us when you have had enough or are being stopped out... When did you buy the dip today? My guess is 1115 on the first run down after that you've been praying to get it back. You are full of bs and your posts about canadian pension fund are as interesting.
Just keep buying and we shall see who stands at last, sorry Leo but below 1000 you're wiped out..
You are going to lose your ass once this sham implodes on itself, Solar-dork
Hmm, I use NO leverage, and have been making money trading stocks in a growing and thriving industry. Lose my ass...I think not.
Leo, respectfully, do you think it works until it doesn't? Or have you found the magic formula? If so, please share. Buy on every dip is not a magic formula, in my opinion.
All I know is volume is not back - of the last 25 trading days:
days above average volume - 1
days about average volume - 8
days below average volume - 16
Average S&P 500 volume around 5.02B
Most days ranging from 3.4 to 4.5B. Only day above average was the largest selloff and lowest volume days were follow on days to largest gains. Hmmmmm.
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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