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Volume: Back To Abysmal
Volume today was a fraction of Friday's, which is probably why the numerous breakout attempts (at least three) over 1,200 in ES failed. The distribution on Friday pushed out many of the momo hands at lower levels, so few were willing to jump right back in, even with the Primary Dealers gunning for new post 1,200 highs, and the algos frontrunning every large block order with reckless abandon. Since many of the algos are controlled by the PDs, champagne was served all around at 4:15pm. In the meantime, the US treasury is facing another imminent debt ceiling increase most likely at about the time of the mid-terms, as we have been predicting since December of 2009. Those massive repo-based capital gains don't come cheap (to the taxpayers).
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"In the meantime, the US treasury is facing another imminent debt ceiling increase most likely at about the time of the mid-terms, as we have been predicting since December of 2009. "
Q: What if in the heat of the elections, the congress says NO to increasing the debt ceiling? What would be the impact? (rhetorical but feel free to comment please)
Elementry; they cannot say no. They are part of the enablers to spend more money just like the Greeks politicos, especially for an election. Politicos never want to spend less money. The FED accomodates them. Someday it will all collapse as in Greece. Until then, enjoy the corruption, greed, & fantasy.
I agree Lionhead. Why don't they just raised the ceiling to 30 Trillion and just be done with it for a few years (somewhat sarcastic but maybe not)? Who are they fooling, this debt will continue to expand until default or it is inflated away.
Timmy will lie, cheat and steal and IOU to avoid dealing with it before election Tuesday. Extend and pretend is always the go word..
The big scary issue for the critters is the simmering AZ immigration thingy. They don't want to deal with that either. But it may get shoved down their throats.
It will slice above 1200 like a hot knife through butter.
I don't know what you call knives where you come from that looks like a spoon to me.
More like a butter knife on a brick...
Who says there's going to be an mid-term election this year? Oh, sure, there's one scheduled, but we got plenty of time for extraordinary circumstances....
Another volcanic ash shutdown in Iceland ?
Here's the link
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1271346/Iceland-volcano-Ash-cloud-returns-grounds-flights-Ireland.html?ITO=socialnet-twitter-dmailnews
The market has devolved into declines on independent (non Fed-funded) institutions bailing out over macro concerns, and rallies on Fed-funded banks buying index futures and funds.
This will end when OPEC says "No, we have enough paper, thank you very much."
I only know 2 (people) who have actually bought any stock in some 3 months. I have not.
Too bad for me! But, I trade poorly.
Leo! Your track record has been rather good lately vs. us bears/bugs. My short term trades are usually terrible, but I typically get the longer term trends right.
"Mucho cuidado" in your Chinese solars and stocks in general this year.
Keep posting your lovely pictures.
Also, Leo, notice how Greece kind of of dropped off quick here on ZH...?
I don't think that Greece has gone anywhere. Stay tuned.
Missing those Greek stories. Sort of like a Buster Keaton short between the two main features.
German parliament and greek proletariat have not approved the deal yet. More to come
I am so sick of this, but not as much as the shorts who carried over the weekend.
Just insane.
....and insane is the only proper term to describe anyone holding their shorts into Moonshot Mondays.
If insane means not falling the sheepie, thats me. Been short on my bet , and I will continue. No leverage just a looong bet on a looong fall. Stops are only tools for market makers to out the weak hands and make some money. Its a rigged game only a faster rigged game on the way down. Longs should consider selling in this overbought, wimpied volume market. Its goin down.
What he said ...
I have seen this story before, this could go on for weeks.
Ah, but it used to be "for months"......
regards.
You can complain about volume or you can start trading. I just bought 1000 shares of BP and 2200 shares of Apple. I gotta buy the little chippie some Prada next month and I have to get it for free if you know what I mean.....
So keep complaining you cry baby.
As far as the market, I maintain we'll exceed Dow 15K by the end of the year and be closing in by the November elections. There's a scenario where we surpass 15K in late September after a massive summer rally, surpass it as the October "surprise" then approach 18K during The Sanity Claus.
As for the debt ceiling: guaranteed we'll raise the roof. With the usual feigned self-flagellation for the benefit of the Chinese and Saudis. Gone are the days where the public could be reassured by presidents quoting macho action heroes of the silver screen in matters of national finance "Go ahead...make my day!" "Read my lips...no new debt ceiling!" "Hasta la vista, baby!"
To reach 15k in late Sept, Dow needs to make an average of about 30pts per trading day (average of 150 per week). For reference, the last six months the market has averaged 11pts per day (55 per week).
I think I'll take the under on 15k by Oct 1. If market maintains the same pace for next 6 months as the previous six months, we would be on pace for 12,500 by Oct 1. I still think I'd take the under but you never know.
Shop till you drop, America!
Help America by strtegicslly defaulting on your mortgage and credit cards. Then shop away. Feed the beast quikly, poison it slowly.
Its just a matter of time before it all falls apart because "The harder they come, the harder they fall. one and all."
It's the only reason they are allowing this to go on (Banksters make lots of money on these strategic defaults) and they think in the end they will get eveyrone at the tax table.
You got a tax cheatand his pals running a rigged game.
Want to borrow my screen name?
same story different monday. the past couple weeks looks like massive distribution however.
It's a rigged game...I mean really, isn't it?
"Well as long as nobody touches it, we will be fine, right? Right?!" Said by that one guy sitting in the corner wearing emerald tinted glasses and a dunce cap. "Are you referring to that big honkin' pile of crap over there?" "Hey, there are buying opportunities...with that...we can turn profit still....someone will buy it..." "SHUTUP!" Cries the rest of the room. "We are trying to devise a plan here!"
Well, take this from a bad trader for what it's worth, but I am inclined to Sell in May (what little stock I own) and Go Away.
Here's a tasty morsel from Bloomberg:
European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet, who capitulated on a January pledge not to relax lending rules for the sake of one country, may have to sacrifice more principles to prevent Greece from bringing down the euro.
Trichet yesterday diluted rules for the second time in a month to guarantee the ECB will keep taking Greek government bonds as collateral for loans. The central bank may have to extend that to other nations, renew a program of lending unlimited cash to banks for a year, and even start buying government debt if the 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) bailout plan for Greece fails to stem the euro’s slide, economists said.
As HW says, BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!
Well, I'm sure that effectively printing up a batch of a couple hundred billion extra Euros will do wonders for its value as a currency. Seems to work for the USD.
Friend of mine had the following to say about recent algo trading:
Stocks were challenging this week. The Algorithm Traders are becoming noticeably more aggressive. This week, 70% of my trades saw footprints of computer or 'bot' traders where as the average hovers near 30%. There are tactics one can deploy to better protect themselves and at the same time work with the Algorithms to achieve better entry and exit prices. Of course this will be an on going issue especially as the programs become even more advanced. While I'm not going to stop trading manually (instead, opting to automate my systems) I can see the opportunity in trading against or with an algorithmically dominated market. Regardless, I am duly noting the recent uptick in participation if for no other reason than our space may be becoming a crowded trade.
Boz,
Independent algos seem to add viscosity to the market making it hard to fight the current. On the other hand, duelling algos eventually have to push swings to a bifurcation point. That will be VERY interesting if that happens.
...unless someone with stones of pure neutronium steps up to say, "The max level of permissible algo trading is n% of the market's volume (Spoken in a deep bass voice)."
I don't know the threshold for critical overswings, but it might be around 3%, which we haven't come close to seeing yet.
Either way, I still don't have the hang of trading around the algos. Oh well.....
regards
Last time I looked I made my profits by trading PRICE, not VOLUME.
I am betting on a diamond top formation. USD is getting stronger and stronger against the euro for example. Nasdaq100 will be killed for this, has no more imports from the tech toys from usa. Here in Portugal an iphone costs 600 euros?? almost 1000 dolars? WTF IS THIS? IN usa the same iphone costs 150 dolars... INSANE. Just short nasdaq100.
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/05/update-diamond-formati...
Currently, SP500 futures indicate that the March 2009 bear market rally may be ending. We should get confirmation this week.
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