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Volume Is Back...To Abysmal
To all the sophisticated technical and fundamental analysts out there, we have some simple time and money saving tips. When the volume in the market plunges like today, the market will surge. End of story, no more 'sophisticated' analysis needed. As the charts below show, after exploding in the beginning of last week, purely due to various mutual and hedge funds succumbing to the dreaded affliction known as "selling", volume has since plummeted allowing the HFTs to step right back in with the vapor melt up program on full tilt. Should volume spike again the robots will pull the fake bids and the market will plunge once again. And to all who continue to trade this exclusively headline driven market, where one wrong word can shut down the entire HFT churn/scalp crew, we once again express our condolences.
Cumulative divergence from average.
And daily volume. Lowest since February 14
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Meanwhile.......
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/03/the-f-35-a-weapon-that-costs-more-than-australia/72454/
debt IS money. you've got money!
Half-wit Dom Tierney is just nervous they will be used on his beloved communist gang
Let the volume-less melt-up go on.
Nominal Gainzzz
It is said that we won the Cold War by bankrupting the Soviet Union.
Now we are bankrupting ourselves.
So when we are bankrupt we will have won? Some deep philosophical pondering required on that one.
Osama claimed he bankrupted the Soviet Union by trapping them in an endless quagmire in Afghanistan.
Bin Laden has a point... We're bogged down in the same fiscal and monetary quagmire.
After the collapse of the USSA, if we return to sound money and principles of autrian economics, perhaps the collapse may not have been in vain.
Perhaps. However, I think the "Banana Leadership Class" will need to go the way of the chopping block first.
I guess I would rather have a genuine, active monitoring of the financial system and our political system... instead of waiting until things are out of control to attempt to curb them, only to fall prey to rudimentary math and boom/bust cycles. In other words, I'm not sure that I need to get ass raped by a syphilitic donkey to know that it probably isn't something that's healthy for me, nor sustainable in the long run. Factor in the fragility of a collapse at this point combined with the proliferation of world killing technologies (oil wells, nuclear plants, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons, various herbicides and pesticides, any kind of mind altering medications that aren't screened in municipal water systems or elsewhere in the food chain, etc...) and we have a recipe for disaster. Eventually, I think all of these things become unmanageable in a crisis and the boom/bust cycle has to be avoided. However, thus far, we have benefitted tremendously from the R & D, etc., provided by a ridiculously expansionary credit policy... while some technology gets lost in the fire, much persists post collapse... this is our method of advancement... and I see no end/desire to change, assuming we can.
@golden
"It is said that we won the Cold War by bankrupting the Soviet Union."
Yes, that is said, but it is a false statement.
Muir:
You are right.
The Soviet Union was already bankrupt. Reagan just gave them the extra push.
Your avatar and Pladizow's new avatar should fight...
It is a good question to wonder who we are going to use these against. Despite all the technology advancements, we still can't win a war against men who supposedly live in caves and use 50 year old guns.
Another good question: Is the market actually down the last three days when only accounting for regular trading hours? I haven't done the exact math, but I actually think it is. So the new algorithm should be low-volume + gap = get in pre-market, sell at open.
Excellent article. Thnx for posting link.
Maybe ASIMO is learning how to pour concrete on reactors so he doesn't have time to trade stocks?
http://asimo.honda.com/
+1
It seems Assimo = no help in a 128+ celsius (262+ degrees Farenheit) hot quagemire of radioactive soup
They took asimo's brain out and co-located it in an HFT operation.
HFTs are pouting now that citi candy store is closing.
A market built on a foundation of Hopium (aka fraud projected using trick mirrors) tends to descend rapidly at the worst of times.
I googled "free market" today and got 2 responses:
1. EBAY
2. Craig's List
Unemcumbered internet shall set you free.
(Unless you stream MTV videos all day, then we've lost another one to the matrix)
Hopium 235
/ \
Inflationarium Depressionarium
|
Hyperinflationarium
\
Radio-revolutionatides
Amazing how this was glossed over:
"Existing-Home Sales Plunge, Setback for Housing Recovery"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42192395
Keep the printing presses running 24/7/365. Nothing else seems to matter.
Clearly, the word unexpectedly was added in after the fact to cue the algorithm-driven headline-reading robots.
Also, I have considered that the word unexpectedly may act as a mental trigger to cause readers to forget. Similar in effect to the MIB flashy thing, but maybe they hide the brainwashing in American Idol?
See if you remember this comment in an hour.
The love-love relationship between US Congress and The Fed is beyond sickening. Few, if any, members of Congress have the GUTS to support tough budget cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid etc.. They think that is political suicide. They also want their pet projects in their respective districts so they can curry favor with their constituents. The Fed subsidizes the reckless spending with Quantitative Easing. Ron Paul seems to be one of the few members of Congress to have the GUTS to attack the Fed.
The love-love relationship between the US Congress and The Fed could is destroying us.
Few if any members are willing to support cuts to the military or increases in gas taxes, both very much required.
I agree with the need for military cuts. However, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are the Big 3. They appear to be untouchable right now.
Blech. Print into oblivion! I'd rather see my portfolio up 1000% as I sift through a landfill for my next 3sq.
Is that rossarian? Love it.
You should EXPECT that anything contrary to the hopium propaganda will be cited as UNEXPECTED.
When numbers go down: unexpected
When numbers go up: surge
Low volume melt up: rally
high volume sell off: correction
I heard that a couple of months ago a janitor working at Goldman's Algo Bunker brushed up against one of the mainframes and when he turned around saw a red light blinking above the "inverse" switch so he turned it back on.
The 4 algos trading were just focused on S, T, C for today
The tape today was totally Japanese.
We'll teach Icahn to pull out early. HedgeFundus Interuptus is not allowed. You will be shamed when the DOW 20,000 hats come out. Cramer will laugh at you shorties.
I have a Citi Travelers- Solomon Smith Barney Dow 10,000 hat sitting on my desk that I will be willing to sell to the highest bidder.
Who wants to own this sweat stained piece of US historical irony?
P.S. I'd also be interested in entering into a forward for the JPMorgan, Chase, Chemical, ManiHani, Bank One, WaMu Dow 20,000 hat.
The 'markets' have become a big bunch of baloney. Got out of all paper 3 years ago. I will not be part of Bernanke's BS game. Please do not tell me I could have made a lot of money. So what. It's no better than the 'profit' Madoff supposedly made.
PS I am all in PM, baby.
well, if you lose 10%, you should be ashamed! lol. kinda nice getting the whole paper world to fade into a point in the rear view mirror, tho, ain't it?
you are a bank of 1. you are an army of 1. that's a pretty big #, isn't it? autonomous liberty. just like in the story!
Oh...but don't worry, they have resources ....like here for example ; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202173/Secret-Labour-tax-having-patio--Millions-homes-assessed-council-charge-hammers-middle-classes.html#ixzz0MMtLonp8
Can't let those near term death crosses manifest.
And to all who continue to trade this exclusively headline driven market, where one wrong word can shut down the entire HFT churn/scalp crew, we once again express our condolences.
Well i appreciate that, for the record my picks are better than good, its my timing that sucks ass...
110% of the market gains in the last 3 sessions happened prior to market open. during normal hours, stocks are down the last 3 days.
Woe to my beloved Dollar.
Its going to be interesting when those still with significant wealth consider how they are going to crystalize that wealth and then realise they cant. Take a look at the play boys outside the Cairo stock exchange in their Bentleys for a clue.
Matters not, self-annointed, self-appointed 'expert' Rob Prechter and his courtiers of Elliott Wave crones have, for once in 14 months, called a top (at long, long, long last!!!)
Praise be Prechter. Yes today sure as eggs out comes a 'Free Update' from his crones 'crowning' King Prechter for his "technical indicators". Yes the same technique that has predicted the whole of 2010 completely miserably wrong with a near 100% failure rate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTZigLYsiMM&feature=related
Don't let the truth of a failure rate worse than a coin toss that would beat you blind by 500% get you down Lord Prechter, or your comical side-kick who gets nothing (ever) right, Steven 'the unapologetic twit' Hochberg. According to Prechters crones "Prechter's market call was not based on mania madness, but on a wave pattern that began in the early 1930's".
Gee Prechter knew all along, throughout 2010, he was talking shit calling tops every month of the year. Prechter knew all along, right through 2010, he was really waiting for his 1930's technical indicator would top in 2011.
All his predictions through 2010 were just for fun. A comical joke. Prechter was saving it for 2011.
Or like his entire team of clueless constantly failing morons, is ALWAYS wise AFTER the event. His technical indicators are always right, even though he gets it wrong 95% of the time. He has 14 pops at the cherry, gets it WRONG 13 times, and on the 14th lame effort, entirely by luck and chance than technical competence, the King gets it right. All praise King Prechter, your total miserable fuking failure throughout 2010 was just a 'blip'. Ignore the total ongoing incompetence, luck has nothing to do with it
Ok, but what do you think about Prechter?
someone who cannot deal with reality (the horrendous failure rate of his and his teams predictions)
If you can find it, see Trader, the short 1987 documentary on Paul Tudor Jones. I watched it off a Chinese site, todou.com I think. Prechter was THE MAN in 1987; he is referenced with obvious respect in the film.
i've only got respect for Prechters deflationary and socionomic calls...
...his market predictions are fuking rubbish, it's a total clown show at Elliott Wave, their charts are thrown out almost every week, they constantly change their wave counts because the last one failed. They call 2 wave counts one up one down (ie. haven't a fuking clue) and their Free Updates which self-promote their 'skill' but in fact they have none are at best gross mis-selling bordering on an absolute fraud.
Their failure rate, as in 2010 which was almost total failure, is right across the board. From calling market tops constantly, Gold and Silver tops, US Dollar rallies, European market indexes and currencies: all of it is a total farce and sham
Prechter is delusional at his ability. I think he's surrounded by too many crones at EW. They are a joke. If they did the maths on their predictive ability (no joke, a 95% failure rate) they'd pack up and go home and refund all their long suffering subscribers for the complete incompetence of their performance throughout 2010
Dont' forget that idiot Robert "Shampoo" McHugh. I followed that idiot for a few months, good Ghod was that a mistake!
what was he an 'expert' in?
If you believe, as I do, that the Fed's primary aim with QE2.0 was to create a wealth effect using the stock market, then Prechter's calls never had a fair chance of being right. That part is on him because he refuses to acknowledge the unprecedented level of government intervention. But that leaves us with the question of whether Elliott Wave is legit or not. In my view, the jury is out because the current stock market is so manipulated that no discipline works.
Prechter does not believe in Fed manipulation (markets are too big). Check any attempt by any Govt to intervene. They all fail completely.
So there's no 'QE excuses' for Prechters mis-timed market calls which have been a constant failure, right across the board (indexes, currencies, Gold and Silver etc), literally for every month throughout 2010.
A near 100% failure rate month after month across each of dozens of asset classes. This is beyond a joke, it is pitiful.
So let's be crystal clear Elliott Waves cannot predict. Fact. The maths (failure rate) prove it.
If Prechter and his clueless team of clowns actually did a statistical analysis of his failure rate (ie. faced reality) he'd have to admit EW's are a fraud. A scientific model needs to predict with a greater than 99% accuracy. EW's predict with a 95% plus inaccuracy. They're so incompetent they cannot beat a 50/50 coin toss (ie. pure chance).
But Prechter and his team are so delusional, so arrogant they're onto something they can't stop themselves finding methods to ignore reality. They say their service is "predicting probabilities". But if they did the maths they'd be more honest (and less delusional) and call their service "probably wrong". In fact if they were even remotely honest and realistic EW would label their service "probablistically over 95% of the time wrong".
But in no way do the delusional EW idiots want to admit their consistent and persistent predictive incompetence. Instead a common method is to make two wave counts and two alternates of "it could go up" or "it could go down". When their main recommendation, "it's going down" is wrong out comes a misrepresentative "Free Update" saying how they got it right when in fact they sent their subscribers in the wrong direction with their main prediction.
Nobody has made more money off an investor group than mis-directed EW subscribers in 2010 who have been 'lambs to the slaughter' because of the consistently incompetent advise given by the shambolic EW team.
Prechter needs to get a grip of reality but the latest Free Update with his crones trumpeting his 1 success (not his 13 months of failures) in 14 months finally top calling correctly suggests this delusional over-confident clown will continue mis-directing investors with his statistically non-existent 'expertise'.
Surprising as Prechter spends most of his time picking out the delusions and impending failures in every other institution in the economy but cannot see his own at Elliott Wave!
No doubt Prechter was off in 2010. He called the top way early, 3 different times in fact. However, he did call the top in 2007 (early by three months, but he still called it when just about everyone else was calling for Dow 36,000). He also called the bottom in the last week of February 2009, about 9 days before the bottom, when everyone else was still in panic mode. So, I don't rely on his forecasts for trading, but I damn sure believe he is correct that a collapse is inevitable and it will be epic when it occurs.
then Prechter is in the same group as Peter Schiff. He knows what's coming, he just can't say when (timing) ....the problem is that's NOT what his EW service is billed as, a market timer, nor as it grossly misrepresents itself as with its Free Updates.
Note this weeks boasting about Prechters 'skills' (called the Feb top) when it says nothing he's been totally incompetent, and his entire retarded team, right across the investment board for the past year. See my link above on Prechter calling 2010 a down year, "worse than 2008".
The waves are a sham. And a total ongoing weekly and monthly shambles. The pretence is they predict "probabistically". The accurate reality is they throw failed wave counts out and predictions in the bin with a probablistic certainty and regularity that exposes the sham as a clown show.
Chief clown Steven Hochberg has done it yet a again throwing Fridays Gold and Silver predictions of "a week or month decline" into the bin already (one day old and his predictions are in the bin!). This is a regular event from this incompetent unapologetic loser. And their new supposed metals 'expert' has also called a top in the metals sticking a '5' weeks ago... the EW team have stuck more 5's on Gold and Silver than a used car sales lot and its beyond a fuking joke the amount of misdirection these retards have given subscribers
Yes there's a collapse coming. Hopefully not only in the delusional incompetent Western Govts but also the equally delusional Elliott Wave theory that is a pile of crap and the delusional Rob Prechter suffers some 'deflation' of his forever self-preening ego
95% failure is not shoddy at all. Just trade the opposite, just like you would with GS recommendations.
that's the only "probablistic" certainty with Prechter, Hochberg and Elliott Wave predictions... they're crap
Thread tangent: I've always had some questions about the markets. Any responses welcome....
1. why are there 'after hours' markets? why aren't the markets open to all in after hours trading? or better, why don't we have 24-hour markets? if they're all electronic nowadays (are they?) why can't they be open all the time?
2. why are many economic news releases done in the pre-market (eg, the BLS releases initial claims at 0830 hrs)?
3. why do we still have 3-day settlement periods for selling equities in this day of electronic finance?
1. We need to fix a closing price each day to strike NAV's to shill funds to the next sucker in the ponzi scheme.
2. Economic news releases are released at times and in ways that give an advantage to larger investors who can front run the sheep further down the ponzi scheme.
3. Three day settlements are necessary since most market liquidity is fake and we need protect the sacred PD's. In normal periods of fake market liquidity, most securities trades can and do settle same day. It's just helpful to have a bit of cushion for non-normal fake liquidity days.
Likely if traced back we would see these customs are anachronisms, like Daylight Savings Time or the fact that markets tended to crash in October because the liquidity was West buying the harvest.
i have complained loudly about "happium." i think it resulted in...well, in any case. there was a "curious absence of commentary on the real estate front" today. and then..."that great new techno play called AT&T bought...." was it everything? oh, yeah. "Japan is no big deal at all." That's why that "never made a dime ever guy" named Buffet said "I'm buying." When you get that age...what's wrong with a little bit of "the glow" with your purchase(s).
This should be pretty much it for the bounce.
Either we "jump the creek" and take off big, or we have an Epic Fail.
Probably will depend on how Asian markets trade tonight.
Pretty much could go either way at this point.
Robot .."could go either way"
Sitting on the fence again.... wanna jump?
i'm short 2 indexes (committed)
Cheers to all that have the courage to short. I salute you (how can you tell I have been raped by the Fed a few times)!!
robo is right could go either way, but as a trader that has been burn since July on melt-up no fucking volume highs, I want to be careful...however the huge volume distribution days vs this fucking no volume up tick, plus 3 tests of prior high--FAILS...Coming up on NO more 2..Tres. bond redem. including the C rev-split(algo system restore) plus world issues(though the dollar weakness is the stick the holds the dam)...Short am I...
Oh my, for once I agree with RoboWhore. Possibly a small upside move tomorrow and then the breakout goes either way by Wednesday is my take. Silver is about to rocket IMHO, I bet the robot will disagree with that ... of course.
That chart looks good for a strangle.
I love how nobody even stops to ask how a an economy based on infinite growth can survive on a resource limited planet. Maybe sites like this could get away from the BS economic reports and start addressing more of the structural issues that plague the infinite growth paradigm. It's important because we are very near the end game. Although long, this is a must watch movie because the video highlights what I have known for years, that we are living in a system that is unsustainable and debt is only part of the problem. Even more realistic sites like zerohedge only evaluate the current system with respect to central banks, etc. However, the problems are much deeper than just central banks and debt. Open your eyes.
http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
An economy based upon or needful of infinite growth is parasitic. That is what we have, in effect - a large, fat parasite attached to the body politic in the U.S.A.
There is also, in my private mythos, The Swarm. The Swarm is a very large cloud of money. It travels around the globe at the speed of light and battens down on human flesh. It dines on vulnerability, on weakness. It's already Buying Japan. Buffet is one of its spontaneously suppurating Mouths.
We haven't even reached full potential for growth yet. There's still too much inefficiency in the system. When we do reach full potential the Malthusians will call again for depopulation of the Earth to restore the balance. They've been saying so for it for almost 300 years.
Of course, they'll save themselves. They're never the "useless bread eaters", it's always the other guy.
http://tinyurl.com/4lfjysk
@Tyler
To all the sophisticated technical and fundamental analysts out there, we have some simple time and money saving tips. When the volume in the market plunges like today, the market will surge. End of story, no more 'sophisticated' analysis needed.
-
Gold, pure gold.
However, it should be pointed out, which it hasn't for months, that markets have risen in the past without volume before HFT.
See Mamis et al.
hey what ever changes are going to happen, are GOING TO HAPPEN.
its a matter of if the gov will instigate the changes as it sees fit, or the market insitgates them as it sees fit. one way you get to acctually have a say in what gets cut., the other you are along for the ride. to me looks like russian collapse you are along for the ride.
I've been harping on about this for months . Whatever time frame you want to examine in this respect the conclusion is the same : equities rise on low volume . End of day ramp ups and illiquid holiday rises have defined the ridiculous progress since the August '10 low . And if you want a larger perspective then simply glance at a daily DOW or S&P chart with a volume overlay and note the negative correlation between volume and price .
Comical .
sayonara
The entire creature that is the supposedly the up market is fiction. All money thrown into indexes and etfs meant to pretend that you will be punished if you sell. It is merely psychological training to stay in for the illusion of an up market.
May flash should have proven to anyone even mild selling reveals true stock prices. It is all a ping pong of false prices.
+ well said
"hedge funds succumbing to the dreaded affliction known as 'selling'.
LOL +1
Quote of the Decade: From Richard Russell in tonight's update (and it capsulizes this entire rally of the March 2009 Crash Lows):
"Dow and the Transports both up triple digits. With $100 billion a month being pumped into the system, where else are stocks going to go?"
Long live Zimbabwe...
Before Timmy G starts selling his MBS on the open market, don't you think we should be contacting the FASB and force them to put mark to market back in place, before somebody buys some over-inflated pricing on a toxic crap asset and loses their money? This is nothing more than the FED and TRSY pulling a Goldman Sachs bet against the very crap they were selling.
The FED and TRSY are heading right into criminal territory. How do you sell securities that have been price fixed without real mark to market valuations?
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