This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Volume Dies, Market Flies
Looking at broad market volume during most recent Central Bank facilitated ramp, did someone
just send out a memo for everyone to stop trading as JPM's buying wave
takes everything higher on no volume? Yet with volume non-existant, VWAP has barely moved from the lows as not even VWAP reversion algos work in this market.
»
- 7709 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
All is normal...the masses don't care so onward with the show.
Absolutely correct. The masses don't care about market volume, they care about Lady Gaga and Lindsey Lohan.
What's the difference volume high or volume low? The market moves up or the market moves down. Get with it, get out of it or go broke.
Of course this is just another posting of "Hey, we are right!! The market should be falling but mean old mr. fed won't let it!! WAH!! WAH!!
For christ's sake - grow up.
It's really irrelevant. I'd say over 90% don't have the education or the IQ to even understand it yet alone analyze it.
Maybe, but then they'll have a very sophisticated understanding of MLB contracts and statistics for example. I think people are smart enough, they're just encouraged to keep their noses out of the financial business (and their money in).
I forgot to mention one other thing. Most, if you can explain it to them, would think that it's great and appropriate anyway.
yeah, it's a good thing we're all so much smarter than everyone else! My ego needed that.
I didn't say 'smarter', I said educated. I know plenty of bright people that haven't been educated. Ironically, I also know some educated morons. Some, probably you, would include me into that group.
Dude the funny thing is that you're part of you're so-called 90% mass of idiots and you don't even realize...
I've read you're posts and you can't differentiate your ass from your brain. It's pathetic that you're the first to comment on every post and what's even more unfortunate is that your comments and arguments are rather light on substance. It's obvious that you have derive the majority of your "market" knowledge from this site and can't think for yourself...
So instead of categorizing people and bragging about your superior insight, humble yourself. I can bet that you have never worked on a trade desk let alone any position at a financial institution because your arrogance and lack of experience exemplifies this.
It's "your'" and not "you're" and, "Dude", I couldn't care less what an early 20 something jack off thinks or not. Your (<---- proper use of the word) lack of writing skill, jumbled up grammar, poor punctuation, and inability to construct proper sentences tells me all I need to know about you.
So, to be brief, go fuck yourself (or you'reself, if you want).
Spoken like the mechanic that "you're"
You have some of it right. Now just add "al Engineer" to the end of mechanic and you'll have it. But, I give you a solid C- on the attempt. I tend to grade with love with 'short bus' students.
I do, indeed, love the fact that you don't even realize that you've wrote another wreck of a sentence.
I wish you luck with your disadvantaged position in life.
In addition to fixing cars and being a self-proclaimed expert on capital markets, how can you possibly fit being a smart ass English professor into your busy schedule? Your vast expertise in all walks of life that 90% of morons (myself included according to you) in this county fail to comprehend makes me jealous. Maybe with some unfounded arrogance and too much time on my hands, I can aspire to live up your feat of being the first to comment on 90% of ZH posts.
What's even more pathetic is that you're older than "20 something" and you have enough free time on your hands to insult "20 somethings" on a web blog - thanks for the kind wish, but I think you're the one that really needs the luck...
Oh and btw, you need to check yourself - your use of the English language isn't so perfect neither smart ass.
Lame...
disagree. Telling people "it's like 3 card monte where they LET you WIN!" won't cut it for your average "investor".
They'll KNOW how fucked things are.
"Volume Dies, Market Flies" is a great meme....As the late grating fascist shit stick George W. Maxipad the 1st might have mumbled, "we need to catapult this propaganda asap"If nothing else, it might speed up the onanistic quality of the market, hastening its "release"
Well, once you analyze it you still sitting on a losing trade.
a poor sweeping statement if I ever read one. You cannot insist that 90% of the people do not have the cognitive capacity to understand or analyze it. I think it's more like we pay people to do this for us because we have other career minded things to do. I, for example, was only superficially aware of how the market functioned until I happened across ZH. I still can't say I understand it all because it all seems so over engineered to be as purposefully complex as possible, so people like myself, who have a full time job and can't spend hours upon hours analyzing this stuff and staying married at the same time, are woefully unable to keep up with the minute by minute. If we were all traders, we wouldn't need people to "manage our portfolio".
By your logic, I could be equally right in saying the 90% of the people don't have the education or the IQ to understand how to program in C#. I would be wrong as are you. Our focus is not your focus because, hey, I need to keep up with every darned release of a Microsoft .NET release, HTML 5, javascript API's, Silverlight 1-4 etc etc etc.. Learning about the stock market doesn't keep me employed. Learning those items I mentioned in the previous sentence, however, does.
I'm doing my best to understand the beast if only to give me a better idea of the direction of the economy, which is about as much information as I need at this point considering how rigged it is.
You consider yourself not to be in the upper 10% of educated people? Please, stop it. I can tell that's not true simply from your spelling and correct use of grammar and the English language as a whole.
Do you want to meet the bottom 90%? Go to the USAToday or Yahoo finance boards. You'll come to a swift conclusion about the intellect of the masses.
Your superiority complex over the "uneducated masses" as you refer to them as is appalling. Anyone who truly is educated and has intellectual sensibilities that go beyond his/ her own realm of study would think that you're a jackass. Everyone is in some way shape or form beholden to Wall St and the capital markets, so you'll have to excuse them if they take an active interest in trying to determine economic logistics even if they don't have the background or the insight to make relevant observations. Based on your past comments it's clear your probably some low level Ops or Middle Office peon who knows next to nothing, but enjoys playing the role of "big swinging dick trader." Ironic, since you apparently consider yourself apart of that upper 10%.
What's right is right. And he is right.
There are a LOT of flat stupid people out there, and I equate the with being in cognitive denial.
The majority of the remainder (those who could exceed 100 IQ) don't care.
Either way they are losers. I deal with a variety of them daily.
I actually love the uneducated masses and am appalled at how they get screwed over royally. You're misunderstanding my comment and thought. I place high value in a hard worker with integrity well more than academia and intellectualism.
Having worked (and working) in automotive, I can't tell you at how disgusted I am that otherwise hardworking individuals have been royally fucked over. They don't need to read and understand quantum physics and papers on hole theory to have value as human beings.
To put it simply, I'm much more inclined to socialize and befriend non-academics than I am intellectual neo-cons. That being said, I do feel some basic obligation that the intellectuals and academics should be pointing out to them and/or saving them from other intellectual thieves.
What's truly sickening is that this is an ivy league heist and not someone with a pistol in a dark alley. If I was in an alley fight, I'd love to have the brawn behind me. But, who's got the brawny guys back when he's getting outgunned intellectually.
I'm no elitist. In fact, I hate those guys. When the shit-hits-the-fan, you can be sure that I'd welcome someone carrying a lunchbox into my home before someone carrying a monogram engraved briefcase.
Please stop, I am tired of flagging it junk.....
+ one day's fairly-earned wage boilermaker
It's hard to communicate through the anger. I'm the same way at home.
Thank God my husband loves me enough to help me out. I'm angry at people for SIGNING UP AS VICTIMS AND NOT THINKING, NOT SEEING IT, NOT STANDING UP FOR THEMSELVES, who insist on trusting their goddamn 'betters'.
'There's no manipulation.' 'But we voted them in.' 'The economy is improving'. 'Green fucking shoots'. Bloody sheep loving the denial, eating up the fairy floss. Wake the fuck up.
But it's like getting angry at the enabler in an abuser-enabler relationship.
You have to get angry at the enabler, because they are just as much a part of the cycle as the abuser is. The ENABLER has to get angry too, and they do if you keep at them. Without rage it won't end and they will just keep getting the abuse, the consequences over and over again. I know this from personal experience - it takes love and compassion, and ANGER.
But getting angry at the enabler makes one look mean to shocked hearers. There's a difference though between rage at the enabling/abuse, and the rage OF abuse.
I would suggest that if you take away anything from reading ZH it should be that you can not pay others to analyze the market for you.
It is your responsibility not to be trampled financially and then blame others who make horrible investment decisions on your behalf.
I know there are only so many hours in the day, but this (unfortunately) needs to be high on your list of priorities
Chinaguy
Basically I agree with you. Some things become very clear when you analyse the fundamentals: housing, PMs, retail, even stocks when you go thru their balance sheets, IF all the information is there.
But here's where it gets tricky: in this market, and I ask this knowing most people here know far more than I do, what is the good of analysing anything if it just goes where the people behind the scenes make it go, regardless?
If it is our responsibility not to get trampled - and I agree that it is - does this mean that most of us should just not invest or trade at all? Because we will never get that 'behind the scenes' information, which pretty much nullifies all the research that we do. I can't blame my information sources or technical analysis, when the market just moves without reference to either.
Honestly, sometimes I think that all the research, education, and information that we collect, being responsible, just makes us angrier and more frustrated when it still doesn't work out.
For example, you could analyse housing from 2006 to now, and the only result is that you're going from rental to rental while the irresponsible idiots who did no research get bailed out by the government or live for years paying neither mortgage or rent, AND have a nice place to live in the meantime. Or, you stay in inflation-taxed cash while idiots who buy EUR or AAPL just because it's going up, find the banksters on their side and feel great for 18 months, 2 years, 5 years; then when the big market crash comes they have a few days of anxiety before the government steps in with another rescue program. Or, you forego and save while idiots who spend their entire salaries on mortgage vacations and SUV, then lose their job have the government providing a year, 2 years, of benefits.
Honestly, I think it's more a matter of timing than anything else. In a healthy economy, what you are saying is true. In an economy as sick as this one, I'm not sure there is much anyone can do to protect themselves now.
I guess I'm saying, I agree with you in principle, but where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise. Maybe in these times we are better off just eating drinking and be merry, since we're going to be separated from our wealth anyway. So you wait, and wait, years, and watch, research, hide or protect your wealth...and grow old vigilant, and maybe a little less poor than the idiots who just lived high and had a good time.
Well, there you go again. Making sense. Stop it!
More and more, when I see the charts I hear this:
"Schemers trying to control their little worlds. I'm not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are...It's the schemers that put you where you are. You were a schemer, you had plans, and look where that got you."
- Joker, The Dark Knight
A rude awakening if ever there was. I honestly admit that I placed this in the hands of others so I could focus on my daily, continued education. My wife is a CPA and has monitored things like our IRA's and our 401k's etc but even she has become too busy (ironically with a lot of business closures) to pay enough attention to the "whole sham". I'm the one who's been updating her on things and she's just too damned tired after working 70 hours to really focus any attention on it. Quite frankly, it's wearing thin on me too. I'm just trying to keep my job and learn about this stuff so I don't have to have someone manage it for us. Indeed, I'd rather do it myself. It's very time consuming and there is just no way I can become an expert on it so I am trying to just maintain a big picture which helps me manage my financials on a personal level.
I vote to add another 10 hours to the day so I can actually sleep :)
Buy gold.
Ugrev-
Well said. It gets very old reading posts about how everyone else or "the masses" are "too stupid" to understand. And this coming from what I would guess are unemployed folks sitting around all day in their PJs thinking they are doing something more than day trading their pittance of a brokerage account. It is the "bottom 90%" or "the masses" that have jobs and therefore no time to be reading a financial blog all day; they are actually productive members of our society with real jobs that add to societal wealth. It would be nice if we could all be the "englightened top 10 percenters" who get to spend the day shuffling paper and money, reading a blog, polishing a few gold coins, and sneering at everyone else who "doesn't get it." Here's a thought: if you truly "get it" you wouldn't need to be on a blog having it spoon-fed to you every day.
They aren't too stupid to understand the market. The market has simply become so convoluted and intentionally opaque that they have no hope of understanding it. Look, I have a MS in Engineering and can do understand plenty of higher mathematics. That doesn't mean that I can get you to Mars. That requires yet another level of intellect and one which I don't qualify for.
They've been intentionally sucked into to something that is barely and vaguely understandable by even the most educated and dedicated students. Even then, those students get sucker punched by the newest and even more complicated sham.
Why is that a slam on the masses that got sucked into the 401(k) scam? The truth is, I shouldn't even be in the market and I monitor it and try to comprehend it daily. Why should Joe Lunchbox be sucked into putting his hard earned (more so than my compensation, I'm sure) money into a scam that he can't win?
The masses, J6P, are broke. They are not in the market. They are one pay check away from bankruptcy. They don't have any savings and they don't know anything bout their 401k.
Institutional money is taking care of everything for J6P.
Only a small percentage of the well to do middle class have a portfolio.
Institutions must generate a revenue stream to pay for their bonuses, expenses and refund any scared investors. Oh! I almost forgot ... dividends.
jal
You know, several of the office workers where I am were astonished at the decline in their 401(k) accounts. I heard several of them say that they didn't understand because they were not in stocks but rather in mutual funds. In fact, they didn't even really know what mutual funds were. Yet alone that they could crash even though they were 'diversified'.
Sorry, few people should be in the equity markets. Those that are should be prepared to lose everything for a chance to make money. That is NOT what was sold to the public nor is it what is still spoon fed to them daily.
OT:
ZH is for me a perfect place to gather information and giving me a better understanding of the financial world along with economical and political backgrounds.
I notice a lot of anger in articles from Tyler and in comments from many people. Were is the real anger that leads to change, revolution or even anarchy?
I am complete flabbergasted that we let us slaughter financialy as sheep!
Shut the f__k up, TimmyG, HelicopterBen, or whatever surname you're under. We're getting tired of you burning taxpayer money to prop up the market.
So, if Lindsay Lohan and Lady Gaga both like women, could we put them in the same house and start filming for the skin flick of the year?
Manny, look at the pelican! Fly pelican, fly!
Again just more bullshit happening in ES which moves into every single other stock since theyre all correlated.
Soon as VWAP was taken out its easy ramping for the HFTs
Well, yea, but they clearly don't give a shit if it's obvious anymore. They aren't going to stop. Next, short selling will be banned and you know it's true.
Clearly, we're in the ninth inning as it's so overt now this painfully sad and pathetic. I have no idea how much longer they can continue to the horseshit but I'd take the over on it.
gold went up $4.60 with in minutes of this posting
a nice spike.
And then the PTB smashed it back down.
So gold going up $4.60 in minutes = "normal" while gold going down the same in the same time period = "manipulation" by "the PTB." Sure, that makes sense. Or, maybe "the PTB" wanted gold to go up so as to assuage deflation concerns but the upward spike they manipulated was met with market related selling. Or, maybe there are more than just one "PTB." Oooh... maybe one PTB is trying to get gold up to assuage deflation concerns while a second PTB is trying to force gold down to keep fiat money legitimate. Wow... so many unproven conspiracies so little time to pump them all up.
Or maybe, a relative spike in Eur/USD caused the spike in gold and pm's saw this as an opportunity to sell their gold holdings (I sure did) hence the drop...
The powers that be are desperate to prove the (200 dma-50 dma) black cross exception to the rule. So it's up, up and away for a few more market closes, this time above the 200 dma. Come on 50 dma, turn up dammit, turn up.
I read somewhere the other day a statistical analysis of the 200dma & 50dma death cross. The analysis showed that the indicator is far from the slam dunk that it's propagated as, and was something around only 60%-ish accurate in the last 30 years or so. I'm as big of a bear as they come, but I thought I'd share that tidbit. Just sayin.
I agree that it isn't a "for certain" thingy.
But then again, should we really be looking at a 30 year time frame when there has been incredible manipulation over the past 10-15 years.
Yup, 10-15 years. In fact, I would say the manipulation became rather obvious from the 97-98 LTC/Asian/Russian crash forward. The entire year 2000 computer bug was just an excuse for liquidity injections. So was the false flag 9/11 attacks. And so on and so on and so on.
Here is an interesting time line that encompasses the Tong Term Capital Management crash until 1999, when the Year 2000 injections began to take off. The Fed has been pumping for 15 years now non stop.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management
I'm not in any way defending the market's melt up here, just wanted to offer up that info on death crosses.
Thanks for those two links. I actually never knew of the LTCM story, as I was in high school at that time. The story actually fits quite nicely into my understanding of current scam street operations.
Not sure about market manipulation re LTCM but their main issue was taking the wrong side of the bet for too long. Kinda like being short since end of 2009 till even now. It would hurt very very much.
They weren't stupid guys per se (not taking the 100:1 leverage into account) but they relied on TA too much and just didnt know when to call it quits when their FI and FX trades went hard against them.
The manipulation was much more subtle back then. If you remember, the Fed and Treasury got everyone (Banks, brokers, creditors of LTC etc) together in one room and "convinced" everyone that it was in their best interest to "bailout" LTC. What wasn't publicized was all the liquidity the Fed (and Treasury) suddenly made available to those who were bailing out LTC.
It hasn't stopped since then, though it has ebbed and flowed.
LTCM marks the beginning of this sucky era in the markets.
Overlooked is the banks' role in LTCM's collapse.
summary:
1) LTCM's insane leverage was provided by THE BANKS
2) THE BANKS had been shadowing all of LTCM's positions
3) THE BANKS, knowing LTCM's exposures, took LTCM out
4) THE BANKS, pretending to be heroes, took huge risk-free positions and made a killing in the rebound
crooks, theives, scum
we immediately began thereafter the most obscene stock bubble in our history
forgot to point out that it was the banks' shadowing of LTCM trades - multiplying the system-wide existence of money levered in those trades - that created the systemic threat.
the banks the banks the banks the banks
just plain evil
AAA
hiding in plain sight
I think it is a point well-taken. A 50/200 death cross doesn't guarantee a resumption of the bear market. Given the pervasiveness of the ongoing manipulation (whether on beleives it or not) makes the cross even more tenuous.
That all being said, there are nice asymmetic returns that can be captured with a death cross signal. Simply put, when a death cross is confirmed, the gains from "shorting" that are fairly substantial. Obviously, the better way to play that is to purchase an index put, so that a false signal can truncate losses and confirmation can capture gains on any downside.
Given the preponderance of evidence pointing toward an economic slowing here in the U.S., I'd say the signal has a better than average chance of confirming.
It doesn't mean it will confirm, though.
besod--LTCM story is well described and a good author in "When Genius Failed":
http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?sts=t&tn=%22when+genius+fa...
And Michael Lewis, in (I think his first book "Liar's Poker") goes a little earlier:
http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?sts=t&tn=%22liar%27s+poker...
I've always been fascinated with the mindset that these guys have. Actually, I have no clue wrt this mindset.
- Ned
Nothing is certain but death and taxes. Ohh I forgot, the squid taking your money.
The world is a vampire........
sent to drain...
secret destroyers...
Maybe the squid taking your money and taxes are the same thing these days. But one is 'voluntary' taxes, the kind you take on trying to avoid the inflation 'tax'.
Reporter: "Mr. Morgan, what's the market gonna do today?"
JP Morgan: "Flucuate." [but with robots in the mix, who knows? JTS]
So, this implies there should be no reference to technical trends unless you want to think with them and then act on it. If it's true that TPTB are in fact manipulating this market, they want "you" to jump on the "train". I'm amazed and appalled at how this has worked so well but political and "money machine" powers are incredibly resilient.
As for those of us who are smart, practical and experienced professionals, retired persons or just plain average Joe trying to make a buck with investments, they (TPTB) want to break us. Sometimes, it feels like they can win. Scary thought.
As for
They are trying to break you. When everything is boiled down, this is the biggest transfer of wealth from the middle class/lower upper class to the financial elite since the Great Depression. We are being robbed blind in broad daylight and many of us are willingly helping the bandits carry the money (assets) bags into the back of the tractor trailer trucks.
In fact, because there has been so little opposition, I don't know if we can classify this as a robbery. Nor can it be called a "con" because most of us know we are being robbed and lack the moral courage to do anything about it.
Man, if you can't beat em...They may pump this thing up to 11,700 or even 12k before the downturn happens again. We'll see if it breaks the 61.8% retrace at 10,550 and then resistance at 10,700. GO GOVERNMENT/FREE MARKET INTERVENTION, GO!!!!
I am sorry but I still consider these stock prices false. I do not trust any pps unless there is volume. Even I bought BAC last year at around 11.00 because I saw relentless actual volume for the first time and it served me well. They can part someone else from their cash since these bottom feeders can only make money with illusions and long in the tooth tactics reliant upon forcing short sellers to capitulate and hold out suckers to buy into the false price illusion for which they sell into.
Um, yeah...
its very relevant. shows even good #s by INTC cant sustain mo; the funds and "investors" are not there; the rally is running on gov't fumes. they may be able to keep it afloat for expiration but it will come back to earth
Looks like the PPT left around 11:55am for lunch. Wonder what time they're getting back. The charts will tell.
Nah that was just a quick smoke break, perhaps a phone call to set evening reservations at Smith and Wollensky's.
Looks like a long lunch. Algos left on auto pilot too long. Can't wait to see the mad melt up at 3:00 pm or 3:30 pm. Always need the end of session PPT to set my watch by.
To take the other side, why not run up prices if no one will challenge you?
I would think volume would be a multi-decade low if you took out HFT.
Approaching CEILING SECTION 1100SPX.
"Look sharp troopers"
"10 metres fall back and engage the enemy"
"Lock'n load People"
"On my mark.... short bursts only"
http://www.thecolektr.com/Flitgun%20Cover%20Page.htm
"Fire in the hole"
Fox News reported the market shot up because Biden announced they had saved/created a cabillion jobs! Or somewhere close to that figure.
I think it was a Brazilian jobs.
The lord thy BennyB is supplying an endless supply of loaves and fishes. Thou shalt buyith endless amounts of Googleith
They ought to toss in a red 10 min candlestick every now and then, just for shits and giggles. Only .1 points or so in the red, of course.
keeping in mind that institutions will typically accumulate futures in order to hedge their planned buying activity and alternatively sell futures in advance of physical sales--- thus the movement on light volume. how do people manage a 200bln "plain vanlla mutual fund" and meet redemptions and etc. efficiently?-- read the prospectus. they all have futures trading capability as well as creditlines attached to those funds in order to do just what I described. shawn mesaros
Law of Diminishing returns after their latest face melting 600 point ramp due to nothing, so they now go short and smash it all back down. Just another day in fascist dictatorship USA, DONT be expecting any common sense!
now we see the consequences of the lack of vol
"Private NOTW777"
"CEILING SECTION 1100SPX IS NOW SECURED...REPEAT SECURED"
"LAST UPDATE SPX1091 AT 14:00HRS"
"SGT.TYLER MOVE INTO DEFENSIVE POSITION AND TAKE THIS BABY WITH YOU"
http://www.thecolektr.com/Killsum.jpg
"JUST ONE THING SERG',DON'T PUSH THE TRIGGER 'TILL YOUR ABSOLUTELY SURE.... COS I DON'T WANT YA HURT YOURSELF SIR"
To put this in a context I understood as a non-day trader, there is a relatively consistent pressure upwards in the market, and it's the job of the shorts to test that pressure for weak points and exploit those weak points. Hence the large ratio of "test case" cancelled orders, and the wacky as hell nausea-inducing intraday behavior. This is also why the VIX tends to track strongly inverse to the SPX, because a spike in the VIX indicates that a lot of weak spots were found.
On a somewhat related note, anyone have some insight on FINRA Regulatory Notice 09-31? I know some law firms have been sniffing around for the past year and was wondering what kind of legs/exposure this thing might have.
Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us................ windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps