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Volume Flat, Europe Closed - Decoupling May Resume
Like clockwork: Europe closes, volume flattens, and the market rips. With Greece's revolution now "certainly" resolved even as European markets closed at the lows (someone forgot to tell the Greek people who have now locked down the country in a persistent striking state), nobody can bother the US algos, who only look at themselves as a referential point, and at low volume as reinforcement. And with the US algos out of the barn, the carry traders resume, the AUD now back to 0.91 and the EURUSD back to 1.2900. Credit is ignoring the mini melt up as both IG and HY are wider for the day (+4 and +25 bps, respectively). But at least Getco and SigmaX's no-volume algos can give the impression that all is well with the world, even as Greece and now Portugal are shut out from the funding markets, and the IMF and the ECB's credibility is blown to smithereens. The astrophysicists in charge of the US capital markets are unperturbed.
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All right, the O team is in du house. Snap shot of ES trades would be nice.
An interview tonight with the Squid's master: Pulling out the intra day S&P chart - "I want to refute those radical elements, that say GS has no or little social value. "
sick.
Guys, guys, guys...
Don't you see it?
The writing is on the wall, and it's loud and clear.
"Harry Wanger" is in there buying the dips !!!
I'm practicing my writing skills in hopes of landing a job with Associated Press. Check it out:
"Stocks rebounded as investors scratched their heads and said, 'Huh. Maybe this whole Greece thing isn't so bad after all'."
Inf**king credible. Pitiful. We are a joke - and a bad one at that.
This should help ramp up the markets. Oil spills are good for preventing Hurricanes.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/05/could-the-gulf-oil-spill-help-our-hurricane-season/1
Na the oil lubricates the hurricane and makes it spin faster.
Seems like the geniuses have programmed their masters' narcissistic personality disorder right into the algorithms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder
It's ether that, or someone is blowing up (a fund or two) or it's time for a scheduled 90 min break. Who knows, maybe the fed will panic and throw some more liquidity "our" way...
Quit seeing conspiracy theories...the NYSE broke legitimately. Just because it is keeping brokers from filling orders and destroying volumes so the algos (who never seem to have transaction issues) can melt us up 15 points in an hour doesn't mean anything other than a coincidence has occurred.
Quote
"The oil would have the effect of suppressing evaporation of ocean water into the air," says Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storms need warm ocean water to fuel their development.
End Quote
Evaporation results in cooling. A surface oil slick inhibits evaporation and therefore inhibits cooling which results in an increased ocean temperature. High ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes. A hurricane entering the GOM would disrupt the surface waters and would likely build intensity due to the increased ocean temperatures consequent on inhibited evaporation resulting from the oil slick. QED.
I am only guessing, but a darker colored ocean surface is going to hold more solar energy, too, yes?
That whole article made me want to hit someone. Course that's nothing special, I've been feeling a lot of that lately.
Oil is hydrocarbons. Long chain hydrocarbons. There are alot of carbon-carbon bonds. You know what about the best conductor of heat there is. Carbon carbon bonds. Diamonds conduct heat better than copper and silver put together. And yes you have the black body thermal equation. Black reflects less sunlight which some portion of the light is able to travel back up to higher elevations before giving up it's heat to the air. High altitude wind channels are caused by this. Whats that thing called. Oh ya the gulf stream. I don't know what gulf it's talking about hey wasn't it weird you dump half a million gallons of oil in the gulf and suddenly wind starts ripping up through the central plains setting off huricanes and flooding in tennesse whats that state above it. So i guess if you don't have flood insurance you can simply bill your house damage to BP.
It's not just high temperature by itself. Hurricanes grow in strength because the energy contained in warm water (which is enormous btw) is transferred into the atmosphere in a rapid manner. This transfer happens by way of evaporation. No evaporation, no transfer. It's like having a full tank of gas in your car with no key to start it. Sure, you've got a lot of energy sitting there, but it's not going to be used any time soon.
If what you say is true, then the ocean will actually be a hurricane powder keg waiting to fuel 40mph+ winds, once they hit. Fuel has a greater kick, but a higher combustion threshold, so to speak. But I am not an expert.
Oh and don't be teaching her phase change cooling effects. She might start playing with dry ice or something crazy.
Light sweet crude evaporates much better than water for a short time till it transits to tar stages. These scientists today. Either they know thermodynamics but not chemistry. You think people who worked with complicated things like climate would have a strong grasp of ALL scientific disciplines.
I was under the impression this is only applicable to hurricanes that actually form in the gulf. If it forms outside the gulf and blows in, all bets are off, as the winds would whip up the surface, allowing the evaporation to occur.
I could be mistaken.
This is an attempt by the media to add more drama. I imagine the producers where watching rating and asking how they could spice this up. They figured if they could work "hurricane" into "oil spill" they could generate some rating. Next, watch for potential working in of "illegal aliens" somehow effecting the spill.
The US and its rating agencies have started the ball rolling to increase the value of USD by devaluing EUR. They are implicit in this financial war and are directly influencing and manipulating world order.
Can't believe it when the rating agencies downgrade Greece and Spain prior to anything actually happening, yet downgraded LEH and Bear well after they were worthless. Total proof of international conspiracy. My view is the USD will rally for a while, then totally implode upon other nations refusing to accept this "policy" from Bernanke and Geithner.
These fuckers need to go to prison.
I bet the volume picks up again between 3-4 pm. There are too many wildcards floating around and hoo-boy they don't want to gamble on any overnight surprises now. When Japan slams back into action that will shake some folks up....
Holy moley - the entire market went south again after lunch the freaking instant that the DOW and S&P broke into the green.
Now, a cynical person would at this point suggest it's almost as if someone in a basement office somewhere said, "Holy shit, guys - you can't ramp it up that much on a day like today. Take it down a couple of pegs." And as it was written, so was it done.
But that could never happen. Right? Right??
Right! Right! Remember, this is free market capitalism. This is why we're over there in Iraq and Afghanistan. Helping to spread this kind of stuff all over the world.
Yeah, and allegedly smart people can't seem to understand why "it's not taking" over there.
Paging Dr. Wanger.
Paging Dr. Harry Wanger.
Paging Dr. Wanger even though we know he is a lying schill who will tell us all is OK.
I'm here. Lots of trading this morning. Some great stocks on sale. AAPL at 249 for example. Grabbed some SPY at the open as well.
Pretty easy dip to buy this morning. We had good news from ADP and some success in the gulf in capping the well. A close above 1175 would confirm the short term correction has ended.
Hairy Wagoner, buying on the dips:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs
Harry , you are the" up "of the day. Thank you for your enlightening posts.
LOL
I don't think so. I think a close above the recent high of 1219 would confirm that the correction has ended. Until then, you'd be better off shorting at 1190. But in any case, ever since you made that ridiculous comment about being able to borrow 3x as much because short rates are so low, I've assumed you're not really serious, just here to bait the bears.
I didn't make the statement, rather an economist name Zachary Karabell in an article for Newsweek. I tend to agree with his analysis.
You are the proverbial bull in the china shop, Harry. Ya big lug!
He's just a baiter...
Yes, I would say a master baiter at that...
Zach is the defination of a TOOL.
FYI - AAPL got 32% of q1 revenue from the eurozone.
Sell that SPY yet or waiting to double down @ 1150?
I thought momentum donkeys died after the dot-com crash. Harry Wanger must be a former disciple of Pilgrim Baxter.....
On one grueling marketing trip, Mary Meeker and I found ourselves in Wayne, PA, in the offices of Pilgrim Baxter meeting with none other than Gary Pilgrim.
"Tell me the Intel story," Gary said to me. "Well, the stock has already doubled off its bottom, but their new 486 microprocessor ..."
Gary Pilgrim cut me off. "Perfect. Let me interrupt and tell you what we do around here. We like fundamentals all right, but we only buy stocks that are already going up, that have momentum. Our success is based simply on finding these momentum stocks and buying them in size. Stocks that go up keep going up. Stocks that don't go up keep not going up. Now what was that about Intel?"
This guy was crazy, but apparently this style of investing and these so-called momentum funds were the hottest thing on Wall Street. Pilgrim Baxter had been posting great performance numbers using this method and lots of other funds were becoming momentum funds. It didn't make much sense to me.
At the end of our meeting, I sheepishly asked Gary, "Wouldn't you want to find stocks that are about to go up, rather than ones that are already going up?"
"We don't have the patience for that," he answered.
There it was in a nutshell. Momentum funds needed performance NOW, and couldn't wait around for a stock to work. Instead, they bought stocks that were "proven," even if they had already doubled. This struck me as more like gambling than investing. Blackjack cards or a craps table gets hot and gamblers at the surreal Caesar's Palace flock to it and bet more.
Wall Street as a casino is an overused metaphor, but an apt one. I am always asked what stocks to bet on, what are the odds that something will work, should the investment be doubled-down? I hate the tie-in. Casinos are for losers. Gambling is a sucker's game. Everybody knows the games are rigged against gamblers -- the odds are set so the house always wins. Wall Street is about access to capital for great companies. If you do your work, you can find these great companies that do better than the market. Gary Pilgrim was impatient. He and momentum investors just wanted to find the hot table.
- Andy Kessler -
1.165,75. short term correction up yours.
looks like an expected retrace from the impulse move down started Friday.
I closed out some short SPY call positions for 90% gains over the past few weeks. I wanted to get some AAPL, but didn't get in at the lows. Waiting for the $250 mark again and then I'm selling the May $240 puts on it. Also bottom-fishing some ITMN (InterMune) after yesterday's 80% drop.
I'm adding to my long positions because I'm of the current belief that a "solution" is just around the corner. Either ECB or the Fed is going to have to step up. When that happens, we'll see a massive short covering rally that could take us back to the 1220 highs. Nearly 2 million open interest on SPY puts between the $120 and the 115 strikes. That's roughly $20 billion dollars worth of bets that the SPY will close higher than our current levels in 3 weeks for OpEx. We've seen this movie before. Checkout January OpEx where similar things happened. 70 S&P point move the week of OpEx. Coincidence?
FED's mandate in the EU zone is limited. The EU has shown it's inability to communicate with each other while ECB can't make a single bold decision. The only two left who can step up are ether IMF or World Bank but those two, do not have resources. The time for a rally based on fundamentals is not here yet, the time to short and sleep well is long gone. There will be plenty of the insane, roller coaster side action = day-trade at your own risk.
As long as the Fed gives free money to the TBTFs, the market will go up.
It doesn't look like the typical market meltup, with considerable volume to the upside.
I believe the volume comparison on the bottom is over the time span of the chart...the rest of the chart is off-hours trading.
Click on the chart and you can see 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 a.m. has significant volume. I trade the ES.
90 min break is over ! .3% swing in ether direction, your pick in 3, 2, 1 go !
Whoops - nevermind, huh TD? Could you update later with another chart from noon-on showing the rest of the day?
Wow, what happen to Tyler? No posts in hours, did he get hit in the head with a blue cheese bottle over there in the riots? LOL