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Volume Picking Up Which Means...
...Yep, you guessed it: a 10 handle drop in the ES in 5 minutes. The second someone lobs a big sell block everyone immediately follows. The Dow is still shy to repeat its performance from a week ago. And yes, everyone expecting it only adds to the stage fright. Note that we are now at the VWAP from Sunday night.
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China is bailing out?
Just pull the freakin' trigger already!!!!!
I know , right? I'll take the punch to the nuts now, please.. I've got better things to do than to F5 ZH every 5 mins.
PPT will not allow it.
They have no choice.
Oh yes they do. As long as Bernanke has a printing press, they have a choice.
They can print money, but they can't hold the market up forever. Watch.
I'm watching!
Hey Escape, there is also a chart showing that steadily but surely the printing press is having a diminishing return affect to the point where it now does very little. I think you can either find that on Jesse's Cafe or Swarm. Jesse explains it pretty well though.
so it works...until it doesnt.
Indeed... if the population is actually aware of its existence.
If they were to backstop the PPT to the tune of printed trillions, noone would know but a select few.
edit: Ah, here we go. Looks like the market is "allowed" to drop about 70-80 points today.
If they have the power, they need to force it over 1180. If all they can do is limit the drop to 10 pts on the S&P, then they've lost all control (if they ever had any).
Although we're obviously already heavily into conspiracy theory territory here... I'm gonna say they can't make it look too suspicious. And the markets do drop, so a 70-80 pt drop is "safe".
Hmm... down 103 pts now... that can't be. Where are those green quotes on TD Ameritrade...? Oh there they are. How utterly predictable.
The Pound is getting slaughtered. Ugh. I live in the UK, not happy about this.
We should post a webcam on the grassy knoll in Dallas. Complete with tickers.
Kind of like having a goldfish.
Who is in charge of putting such headlines on yahoo finance. Somebody at CNBC must know most sheeple get their finance news on yahoo finance !!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Amid-Wild-Headlines-cnbc-2545582542.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SmallCaps-Ready-to-Lead-As-cnbc-664442882.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Thats awful.
I am "ready to lead" manchester united, but the phone isnt ringing so I guess I'm not.
you'll have to keep watching for more than five minutes but it'll come.
MO MONEY BEN! MO MONEY!!
I bet Ben is now doing a Scotty impression of Star Trek as we speak:
"I'm giving it all I can captian!! The presses are running at 120% already!"
"PPT will not allow it."
The PPT Has Failed
Time to Get Out the Masonic Temple Robes at the FED
And the giant wooden paddles for ritualistic spanking of PPT team members... Those PPT members are merry gay fops that need punishment... as The Worshipful Master Bernank-ster has spoken:
Worshipful Master Bernank-ster: "These specific allegations, I think are absolutely bizarre..."
PPT Members: "We have absolutely no knowledge of anything like what you've just described."
Worshipful Master Bernank-ster: "Disrobe them for ritualistic spankings! Tiny Timmay... fetch the paddles."
GE got trashed. Not that I'm hurt by that.
Interesting timing. This happened a lot in 2007-2008 during the last 30 minutes of trading heading into a Friday.
johng,
"GE got trashed. Not that I'm hurt by that."
Makes me SMILE....LARGE.
Emmelting.....................is SO in bed w/ BHO, they may marry, Oh wait, they already did.
My my, the cockroaches are mighty restless today. Where's that Klieg light when you need it?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klieg_light
You guys make me laugh. Let's see, looking at the five day chart:
Only question is are we going to fill Monday's monster gap (doubt it), or open in the red tomorrow before we head much higher? Relax, it's all good. LOL!
Fair enough Leo, but how about a 10 day chart?
+1
Typical data fit from Leo to try to prove a point.
It's like Cramer last Friday saying one needs to be cautious and that he will wait for 8500 or 9000 before buying, and then on Monday mocking all those who were bearish and sold.
Cramer is a fool. I just keep buying solar stocks every time they get whacked. He will never pump solars until they're way into Bubbleland.
How dare you insult the greatest contrarian indicator in human history. Except maybe for Neville Chamberlain.
wow, can't believe someone someone trusts a piece of solar tissue over an article with no debt obligation. Keep smoking that "Canada can't fail" pipe. Meanwhile China endures a bear market with a real estate bubble waiting to go "boom".
Leo, having looked at solar recently for my house, I found that it is not cost effective at all unless you really have nothing better to do with your money. The solar market, at least for solar cells, seems to exist only with government subsidies and/or mandates. Are you advocating buying solar cell companies or solar companies that use thermal technology?
Chinese solar panel makers, and a few top US companies too.
You might want to consider the companies with thermal technology. If the US is ever going to get busy building the 10,000 SQMI of solar installations that it will take to power the existing grid, it will be mostly with thermal based systems rather than solar panel/cell systems.
Leo, You may have a pont here....AFTER the NEW, and IMPROVED..
AMERICA PWER ACT( alias, Climate Control, Cap & Trade), takes effect.......
IF the energy cost's Neccesarily SKYROCKET, Under HIS plan................which I have ZERO doubt's it / they will..........
Then they may be cost effective.
As of now, their too expensive, and do not last , and if the Red's are making them, the panels may contain Ebola, or EMP's...............
Either way,with current technology, and prices, Joe Six Pack, IF he's got a job( and if he does, likely has started picking up the BIG 40's), instead of a WHOLE Six Pack................cannot afford them.
I agree. How long does it take for a $25K system to break even? What are the savings? 1K per year? 2K per year.?
I'll be generous let's say 11 years. Will the system still work? Washing panels is time consuming. Cloud days.
The tragedy of the PV business is not that they are not ready for prime time. The tragedy is that because they - government, green movement, Progressive Party loons, Soros, East Angelia, solar CEO's, The Squid, JPM - somehow convinced enough people that taxpayers should participate in the retardation of research and development of PV panels better and more efficient products are still a decade away.
Everyone went .dot com on the solar stocks. And because of the entire solar racket many people spent money on something they will have to pay to remove in the not to distant future...say 7- 8 years. Or we'll see in some neighborhoods in communities where strip malls are being bulldozed in leiu of paying property tax those dandy solar panels will have been untouched in years. Why? Because those who got screwed by the mortgage racket don't have any money left to maintain what little they have left.
Okay. Common denominator? Government and Goldman Sachs...and JPM. And all of this is good for solar stocks now because of what again?
Thanks Cramer!
Leo, you used to make me laugh (at you). Now, you just make me want to implement an 'ignore user' feature here.
<insert chart of TAN here>
Blah, blah, blah, come back to me next week and laugh while I make money.
feels like put/call is too high for a big drop, odds are in your favor leo
But summation index and McClellan oscillator support another leg down.
Due to popular demand, here is a 6 day chart
The unfilled gap from 5/7 is 1107.50 (close) on the ES chart.
my favorite chart.
http://www.breadwithcircus.com/dowcrash
Best book title. Ever.
Empire of Illusion:The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle."
"MORAL STATISTICIAN."--I don't want any of your statistics; I took your whole batch and lit my pipe with it. I hate your kind of people. You are always ciphering out how much a man's health is injured, and how much his intellect is impaired, and how many pitiful dollars and cents he wastes in the course of ninety-two years' indulgence in the fatal practice of smoking; and in the equally fatal practice of drinking coffee; and in playing billiards occasionally; and in taking a glass of wine at dinner, etc., etc., etc. And you are always figuring out how many women have been burned to death because of the dangerous fashion of wearing expansive hoops, etc., etc., etc.
You never see more than one side of the question. You are blind to the fact that most old men in America smoke and drink coffee, although, according to your theory, they ought to have died young; and that hearty old Englishmen drink wine and survive it, and portly old Dutchmen both drink and smoke freely, and yet grow older and fatter all the time. And you never by to find out how much solid comfort, relaxation, and enjoyment a man derives from smoking in the course of a lifetime (which is worth ten times the money he would save by letting it alone), nor the appalling aggregate of happiness lost in a lifetime your kind of people from not smoking. Of course you can save money by denying yourself all the little vicious enjoyments for fifty years; but then what can you do with it? What use can you put it to?
Money can't save your infinitesimal soul. All the use that money can be put to is to purchase comfort and enjoyment in this life; therefore, as you are an enemy to comfort and enjoyment, where is the use of accumulating cash? It won't do for you say that you can use it to better purpose in furnishing a good table, and in charities, and in supporting tract societies, because you know yourself that you people who have no petty vices are never known to give away a cent, and that you stint yourselves so in the matter of food that you are always feeble and hungry. And you never dare to laugh in the daytime for fear some poor wretch, seeing you in a good humor, will try to borrow a dollar of you; and in church you are always down on your knees, with your eyes buried in the cushion, when the contribution-box comes around; and you never give the revenue officer: full statement of your income. Now you know these things yourself, don't you?
---Very well, then what is the use of your stringing out your miserable lives to a lean and withered old age? What is the use of your saving money that is so utterly worthless to you? In a word, why don't you go off somewhere and die, and not be always trying to seduce people into becoming as "ornery" and unlovable as you are yourselves, by your villainous "moral statistics"? Now I don't approve of dissipation, and I don't indulge in it, either; but I haven't a particle of confidence in a man who has no redeeming petty vices, and so I don't want to hear from you any more. I think you are the very same man who read me a long lecture last week about the degrading vice of smoking cigars, and then came back, in my absence, with your reprehensible fireproof gloves on, and carried off my beautiful parlor stove.
- Mark Twain 1865
We're in a range bet 1165-1140, I keep it simple, 1150 support if open lower, 1140 probably holds. We already tested 1174, I doubt repeat.
Ignore Leo...clearly he blew it back in 07' and now he's desperate for a bigger fool to buy his overpriced solar junk stocks
Was mostly in cash in 2007-08 because I couldn't afford to play the market. Needed to pay bills and survive. :)
Aha! YOU were cash but what about your clients? I'm sure they wouldn't just stick around if you didn't earn them any dividends. Gambling with Grandmas money is not cool Leo...Grow a conscience FFS.
I never had any clients and if I did , I wouldn't gamble their money away. In October 2006, I got fired from a big Canadian public pension fund after warning them about the looming credit and real estate crisis. That and the fact my MS was progressing sealed my fate there. After that, I lost my wife, my health deteriorated and I was blacklisted from every major financial firm in Canada. I had to go on survival mode, so had little money to play with. Before you tell me to grow the fuck up, go read my blog, and go see my archives, asshole!
Congratulations on overcoming adversity. This speaks highly of strong character no matter what your opinion of the market is.
Rick64,
Thanks, in life, we only learn to persevere when confronted with adversity. You can't teach this, you have to experience it.
I'll second that... I am betting completely and utterly against you Leo, but holy crap you are a stronger man than I.
beautiful recovery Leo. you still got yourself. Some of us lose it when the chips are down.
Concur. Hitting bottoms comes in two flavors...bounce or splat. And perhaps not so much hitting bottom for the former but rather just a necessary step to get to where we are meant to be.
Hang in there Leo
"Needed to pay bills and survive". Yah, this pretty much surmises the state of affairs in the US and Canada. Great fundmentals for solar stocks.....considering most consumers cannot afford buy panels. With the housing industry going south and commercial real estate on it's last gasps....the fundamentals look rather sour. Government is tapped out too. Unless your on a 25yr timeline...
David A. Rosenberg
Chief Economist & Strategist
Market Musings & Data Deciphering
Afternoon Tea with Dave
May 13, 2010
400+ POINT DOW DAYS ARE BEARISH, NOT BULLISH
We said last week, and again earlier this week, that the behaviour of the VIX index has recently been consistent with either the tail end of a bull market in equities or the onset of a new bear phase. Indeed, a cursory glance of the market internals — divergences, put-to-call ratio, investor sentiment, the new high-low list — strongly suggest that the first move above 1,200 on the S&P 500 in January resembled the break above 1,500 in July 2007, and the next blowoff move through 1,200, again in late April, looked like the double peak in October 2007.
The obvious question is: how can the bull market possibly be over considering that we enjoyed that amazing 405-point rally on the Dow just three days ago (Monday, May 10)? Wasn’t that an exclamation mark that the bull is alive and well?
Far from it. There have been no fewer than 16 such rallies of 400 points or more in the past, and 12 of them occurred during the brutal burst of the credit bubble and the other four took place around the tech wreck a decade ago.
In other words, the most valuable information contained in last week’s intense volatility, underscored by the 400-plus point bounce in the Dow, is that it’s time to take chips off the table and brace for the breakdown.
https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Tea_with_Dave_051310.pdf
So what are the circuitbreaker triggers this late in the day? Are none, right?
None
There are triggers.....just not the ones you are aware of.
I know about the guy with the wire cutters in the co-lo who's only job is to wait for a call that means he cuts all the fiber. That guy never sleeps. Let's see if he gets to use his mad trade traffic-killing skillz.
LOL
You mean this guy, right?
Is there a limit offer in the futures markets?
This 1000 point drop in the Dow..when I brought it to people's attention they looked at me like I was stupid and the general response was "but didn't you see where it ended up??"
So apparently the sheep have been conditioned to think we will always bounce back (never mind the fact we were still down 3.5% on the day).
When this thing unravels I think it's possible to lose 40% over a week's time.
Like boiling a frog...just like it.
You shouldn't boil the frogs. They taste better if you skin them, roll them in flower and bake them in olive oil with a lot of garlic.
Looks like Hal went to Binary McSorley's early. Too many sellers
This demands an investigation on how such a thing could possibly happen...
(blame it on Greece, queue the riot videos, repeat that the market is right back to pre-crash levels, and most certainly do not mention that the USD broke out again earlier today)
Hearing rumors of a bomb going off in Greece, anyone able to confirm or deny?
Only breaking news I've found of any consequence is:
Venezuela gas rig sinks in Caribbean, no leaks
I would laugh my ass off if another "freak market accident" happened just like last Thursday. How the heck would they explain this one in the MSM?????
All is hanging by a thread, ain't going to take much to push this Ponzi right over the precipice.
Well, given that they couldn't explain the first...
My bet would be that Washington and the 'financial/entertainment media' would demand that markets be halted until they can figure out how to prevent any selloffs in the future.
Let's make it a re-occuring event. Every Thursday we have a market sell off.
Sure, then on friday we can pretend it never happened.
The Fed now needs a reason to take big, unchartered actions over the weekend on a Weekly basis...
Everything lately is an excuse to give more powers to the masters (to save the universe).
All together now....HEAVE!
I can't wait for the Cheeky Charts later this evening!
I can't wait to see what happens in the last 5 minutes today. Right now feels like everybody's edging to the door, pretending that they're just checking out the wallpaper so as not to arouse suspicion...
Nice visual. And, they're glibly complimenting the hostess on her choice of evening wear, while trying to push her out of the way so they don't trip over her lard ass when the lights start to flicker just before it goes completely black.
Exactly!
I'm acting like I'm fixing the door hinges with the door open and one foot out.
LOL whistling past the graveyard
I thought it was against the law for the market to go down.
AH pump coming soon.
Usually have to wait until an hour before London market opens. Then the giant sucking sound (risk up) on no volume begins for the day.
I wished it would all crumble soon. Someone needs to pull the triger already.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWi2hl8hFHg
Shorts are getting in all over the market. Let see what the weekend brings.
BP officials said Thursday they would thread a small tube into a jagged pipe on the seafloor to suck oil to the surface before it can spew into the Gulf and add to a disaster apparently set in motion by a long list of equipment failures.
Man I said this crap 3 weeks ago, that why didn't they just stick a smaller pipe down in the hole and vacuum up, yea there will be some that gets out, but not like has been leaking for the past month almost and they wasted all that time building some stupid contraption that wasn't going to work.
Why didn't they just stuff a big wad of bennie bucks in the hole just like they did the banks' balance sheets. Hell, they might even find some green sharts sprouting up around the area shortly after
It won't work. Did you watch the movie? the leak is like half methane gas that comes out in a not so orderly fashion. And tampering with the pipe don't sound to good to me to.
Also, they are working to far from the source. They should address the main leak at the bp.
Also, that drilling thing they are doing? They are drilling from how many miles away to hit a 21 inch pipe to tap it off? I'd like to see that work out... even tunnel workers above sealevel can't to that.
I wonder how long it will take before they create more leaks.
I doubt it will work, this disaster in the Gulf could make it a Dead Zone for generations, all the rig operators have been running a 1-min test on the BOP instead of 5min, and not @ 5K psi, to save time because the unmaned vehicles cost $4mil/day. To thread in a 6-in pipe into the 20in one is threading a needle, and methenol/hot water needs to be injected to reduce freezing point, and bot tophats sik into muddy sea floor and move around and the rig sunk with 770,000 gals of deisel too, folks, this is WAY UNDER-COVERED as economical disaster.
Or how long until they blow another attempt sky high -- not sure capping methane gas or capturing it in a container sounds so good.
Game theory. They wanted to try a solution with a 25% chance of catching 100% of the oil before they would try something with a 100% chance of getting 25% of the oil. Because the PR that comes with a big win, however remote the actual chance of success, is vastly more important than some incremental fix that actually reduces the pollution by some amount.
This, because they do not care about the actual damages caused by the spill.
This, because they have no intention of ever spending a single dime on the cleanup.
Sorry Cougar, you're wrong.
They need to clean it all up. They need to fix it. Why?
Because BP is in a niche so to speak. Almost all their drills are offshore an they are specialised in deep sea drilling.
They already have the most costly drilling site there are out there. If they won't clean it up, they will need to insure themselves in the future even more. And for now: BP only has a 10% profit margin on their oil. BP is self insured because otherwise it would evaporate their profits. Stock would plummet if they would have to pay more on insurance.
If they costs ever reach 10 billion, whatever the market cap, BP stock will sink below 20$. To be honest, you must be nuts if you buy that stock or hold on to it.
No you think I'm wrong. They haven't paid a dime yet, and have not committed to their first dime, and are saying instead it's not their problem really, and even then they'll pay for legitimate claims only whatever that means
We'll see in a year if I'm wrong. At the moment they are 100% true to form and angling for 100% off the hook.
As for their insurance; if they don't have to pay a dime then they don't make a claim and their insurance does not change. So they've got even more incentive to skip.
And as for their drilling rights, they're still drilling all over the place and will be back drilling in the Gulf 6 months after the dust settles, because there is no way that oil is staying in the mud. No way.
But sure I might be wrong. I really hope I am.
"It was all transocean's fault"
"No, it was Halliburton's fault"
"Ah shit, let's declare bankruptcy and create a new company so we don't have to pay"
"Start handing out golden parachutes"
There is NO WAY BP does not SUSPEND DIVIDENDS, take that to the bank.
Did you also already notice that the costs are rising a bit faster lately?
100 million extra in 3 days. Also the fact that they are working on a dozen other plans tells me that they don't believe in it themselves.
What also puzzels me is why other oil companies are so silent. It's also in their best interest to seal it, and not 1 has offered services to plug it. If they had anything, they would have done so already.
I'm a sceptic.
Ok.. getting back to what I was saying earlier.. assigning a number to "Value of Perfect Information.. yesterday I posted Mortie's prediction for today.. the top two bars had us reversing between 1174 and 1180 on ES.. we reversed at 1175 today...no one can pick a top consistently every day.. that came close today and you would have banked some serious coin..
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/05/12/morties-eod-analysis-12may2010-es-waiting-for-the-fat-lady-3/
Tyler mentions VWAP
Once you understand the game, it is like taking candy from a baby.
A few of the VWAP rules I use.
1. Only look for short if below VWAP.
2. Only look for longs if above VWAP.
3. Always scale ahead of VWAP when in counter trend trade.
4. Forget VWAP rules #1 and #2 if it comes to a major resistance or support line.
Only 10% make money in the futures trading game. Indicators are for the amateurs; talk to a pro and they don’t use them. VWAP is actually a good value and there are a couple of other volume indicators of worth. Fibos do work, but only because they are used by so many traders. The problem is that when they don’t work, you are left confused and broke. It seems to me that they don’t work when it matters most.
The one thing that the big players don’t want you to have access to is the one thing that matters when it comes to price – volume. If you knew when the big boys were buying or selling in real time (not COT reports, etc that are lagging), you can make a killing. Understand volume in the context of the key levels. Remember support occurs where there was the heaviest buying and resistance occurs where there was the heavies selling. Who can create that kind of selling or buying, if not the biggest players? It is as close as you will get until you become a market maker.
..and what is VWAP...volume weighted average price.. or the ratio of the value traded to total volume traded for a time horizon, ie. a day
Or you could use the SPX 50MA, like the other 99.9% of traders were looking for as the top all week.
During the engineered "crash" the big IBs were able to scoop up crap on the cheap while the retails got sheared.
Now they will sell those stocks in little waves to scare everyone into going short.
They will still jam the market back up in a day or two. Its just now they can use the implied threat of the fat finger to keep everyone on the wrong side of the trade while they go for another perfect quarter.
As always, as our esteemed TD pointed out, volume is the key, the big banks (who all just happened to have a perfect quarter with no collusion) can just toss a hand grenade in the form of a big sell block, into the pile of powder kegs which is the nervous market.
They get a lot of secondary effect and pocket a quick buck when they cover at the lower level.
Gods work sure pays good, even if the crowd wants to nail you to a cross every now and then.
I think the overhead supply from before the big sell off last week is selling as the market starts to ramp. Also the short crowd isn't as involved except the committed ones- without placed stops. This prevents the big momentum moves up from short covering
Good point, The PDs scooped it all up after engineering an "absence of liquidity" so now the prop it up early and sell to the Fat Finger Sheeple Believers, slow distribution until the close today.
The city of Los Angeles has announced it will boycott the market as long as it fails to pump up its pension funds.
Big volume? It was smaller than the previous 7 selloffs & less than the avg vol according to google finance.
The DJIA dropped -1% on the day. Including the -1,000 day, it is down -2% for the last month. Big whoop.
If that's what you're jerking off to, please have Robo hook you up with some pics so you can have a *real* reason.
Oh, BTW, gold (GLD) was down -0.71% today on vol that was +27% above avg.
Try looking at something other than the daily volume bar on Google Finance... The screenshot shows the INTRAday volume - might want to glance at that before spouting off.
And you're seriously measuring the price x volume of the price of gold - by looking at the daily bar of GLD? You really shouldn't be trying to talk back in this forum, or any relating to market technicals.
If your in a barn full of powder kegs(hedgie with millions under management, one fat finger from ruin) scalping away at those teenines and Lloyd Blankfein walks by and tosses a an old school m-80 thru the door, it might not set off anything but tell me you wouldnt close out some posistions and run out of that barn for a while.
Vwap Shmewap.