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Volume Plummets As S&P Closes At 1,090.10, Nasdaq At 2,200.01
Gotta love those closing price targets, which were achieved to the penny. As for the market, the no volume meltups are once again back in vogue, as the ES and SPY both trade at two week low intraday cumulative volumes.
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How about the SEC finds out who did some insider trading off of ISM data Tuesday afternoon?
oh a comedian now are we?
Rhetorical, sarcastic, cynicism, and comedy all rolled up Chipotle style.
Can't. The Fed has full nondisclosure. Besides, gotta hold up the pension funds-even though they're out of equities and into super safe treasuries...
Hi!
lol robo's charts draw more attention to the SEC...
Do or Die...
My bet is that the jobs report will be bad, but not as bad as expected. Otherwise, we would not have seen so many PigMen front-running it today.
Probably take off like a scalded dog tomorrow after an initial selloff.
then put your money in long champ, let us know the results with a pretty picture tommorrow
too much hype is on the jobs data, trend is up...and real estimates (not economists) are low (for a good reason). Obviosly the market was able to ignore the inventory/sales ISM data - the only LEI piece of that pie. Obviosly those who know already have placed their bets...
I will be short when I hear from my bullish collegues....
Think trading range-like the 70's.. on steroids.
I'm long term bearish, but the B/D model will contribute this month compared to none last. This will help make a flat report a little better. I tend to agree that a non-disasteruous report will be viewed as an "all clear" by the bulls. Pretty light eco calendar next week. Might be a good time to continue the low volume ramps.
Gaps to fill at 1100-ish. I'm sure meltup volume will be eye watering...
so... basically all of the august sell off taken back in two days, and with more bad data ..... hmmm
Oh, you noticed that also?
Remember this "Poison Ivy" from 1999 - 2000?
Sycamore Networks
Was expecting Uma Thurman....
Yes and that last second, or faction of second move, was brilliant.
Novice tape painters need not apply. These guys are good.
Wait, that was a stupid comment.
1090.10 is what they type into the computer this morning, wasn't it.
The 25th, 27th, and 1st are all high volume up days no? Am I reading that correctly?
SPY selling for 20x normal earnings. What a f#cking bargain. The fair multiple on normal earnings for this flying pig-turd is about 11.5x
And how do I know this to the first decimal? G@d damn mathematics, that's how.
The cost of equity = Risk free + beta*(Rm - Rf). The risk free is 3.6% (30 yr treasury). The historic risk premium is 5.1%. Beta for the market is 1.0. So, Ke = 3.6% + 1.0*5.1% = 8.7%. P/E is just the inverse of Ke, so 1/0.087 = 11.5x
Oh, I know, "growth growth growth". That "growth mantra" is such horse crap to anybody that understands how to value cash flows and securities. Growth only adds value to a company if the incremental capital required to generate said growth is earning above the cost of capital. For the markets asa whole, that is not the case, so earnings "growth" adds near nothing to the present value, i.e. the reinvested capital is just worth book. In fact, growth of the HPQ-PAR type, for example, is highly destructive to NPV
These equity markets are a f$%ng joke, and have been since about 1995
Rant [OFF]
hmmm....risk free for 30yr....I don't think so.... look at 0,25%
Young,
The 30Y is yielding 3.6% (last time i looked). The duration of equities is infinity. If the UST sold a 100 year bond then Rf would be the 100Y, and if they sold an infinity bond then it would be the Rf, by definition. The 30Y is the best proxy for a long duration risk free rate.
you presume to think people in the market before a jobs report (or ISM for that matter)
1) dont know the report results ahead of a squeeze
or
2) dont give a flying fuck about valuations... (aka reality)
I like the "HISTORIC RISK PREMIUM" part in your calculation. Note : we live in the present !
I liked 'flying pig turd'...
GM used to have over 50% of the market share of autos in the US. Oh wait...bad example.
Would you like to argue that there should be a lower risk premium going forward?
Does solving for Risk Free and arriving at about zero or less work just as well?
maybe there's no volume because of the upcoming labor day weekend, last "summer" week vacations - I'm expecting the markets to get really exciting mid-sept.
Take-Two up 16% after hours...
There's job waiting for you at the street.com if all else fails Robo Troll.
Robot is an original on this site - definitely not a troll and one of the better contributors. You've got to stop taking losses personally.
well i miss your contributions, ROw BOat. how come no top bar left side articles? you and cheeks, kinda went to las vegas or something.
take2 double d's with fries.
"Robot is an original on this site"
Yes, original as in unique, different from the rest. Prone to post cartoons and charade how gold is down and stocks are up within the contents of a post that has a derogatory slant towards the market.
Original as in one of the first posters on this site. You disagree with him as I often do but it doesn't make him a troll.
Of course, Monday's 140-point drop came on the lowest volume day of the year. But we don't talk about that at Zero Hedge. Just like we don't talk about Zhou Xiaochuan anymore. Never happened.
Well, they sure scrubbed that loss clean and in short order. Nothing like proving an anomaly with even more of the same rigged out shit. What is the score now....158 to 1?
Monday was a Bank Holiday in the U.K which explains the lower volume...
They still have functioning banks in the UK?
Lol! Good point!
Well, the low volume meltup has occurred with a whole heck of a lot more frequency than the melt down, that's for sure. I don't think anyone on this site saw August 31 as a sign of the impending apocalypse, but if you look at aug 31 and then sept 1, look at the news flow, you will be certain that the only certainty is that something don't smell right. we're locked in this Dow 9990 to Dow 10400 range and that's all she wrote, Prof. It's all bs up or down.
Dam*it, I hedged ES at 1050 and long ESU9. Must have been Skynet developing some sort of life of ITS own. "Freaky"....
Time to make some seriouus cash.
(1) Buy ES immediately after any news that is market neutral, or slightly beats expectations, or is only marginally worse than expectations. Close positions only if and when expectations miss by largish margin.
(2) Never ever sell ES ever, unless closing a position.
(3) Double up on the long side, on a daily basis using rule 1, by using a Martingale betting strategy =
(4) As the ES has NEVER had 4 consecutive failures of rule 1 above in the last 180 days, sit back and become a millionaire quickly.
(5) Rinse and Repeat.
(6) Buy wheat.
I don't trade, and am as n00by as they come, but to your (1): looks to me like as soon as there is a vaguely greenish datapoint (which will later be revised red so the next one can beat it), someone gets the news in advance. (I realise there's an element of tinfoil in that statement!)
So (genuine question): is it still possible to be carbon-based & quick enough to win?
Good advice but I'm a little confused by #2.
If ES is up and you have a feeling the econ data is gonna be worse than expected wouldn't that be prime time to sell them short? And if you're wrong, cover quickly?
Just curious if you had a solid basis for this suggestion. Past experience, whatever the case may be.
can someone tell me what the ESU0 is?
Us noobs need to stick together:
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/ESU0
You're welcome
Noobs, bitchez!
The cartoonish young lady in the RT post above has nice noobs.
gigantic......ous, like H U G E.
Boobs, nitchez! OK, I'm just confusing myself now. Did have to visit 5 diff. cashpoints (4 diff. banks) before I found one willing to dispense paper earlier. What with that Barclays 'computer issue' recently, I do wonder if they are testing us out for the inevitable...
Disclosure - long: tinfoil; beer.
S&P 500 futures. ESU0 is the current contract. U for September close and 0 for 2010. Sept 2011 is ESU1.
HTH
e-mini future for the S&P.
Fact : ZH crowd has been getting killed for more than a year(other than Gold).
Now is not the time to be short. It looks like they are going to ramp till elections.
Junk Counter going to crank up, ready steady 1, 2, 3
Game is far from over, friend. No junking. I agree, being short is foolish. Almost as foolish as being long.
Agreed. Take your ball and go home.
Playing 3-card Monty is not a viable long term occupation.
"The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!"
But the market is using really expensive conditioner. Who can resist it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L72uh4u5WCw
It's sort of like a bird fighting gravity. The pump boys (the bird) can easily lift off the ground by flapping its wings, but if the dumb money (gravity) keeps selling then the bird is going to get tired and fall towards the earth the moment it stops flapping its wings.
"Fact : ZH crowd has been getting killed for more than a year(other than Gold)."
Let's deconstruct that statement shall we:
You say it is a FACT that the ZH crowd has been getting killed for more than a year(other than gold). You see, fact, that "other than gold" exclusion makes you look a little... shall we say.... confused. Why, you may wonder? Here is the answer:
Below we present a chart of SPY vs GOLD for one year:
And here is the same chart YTD:
Please define how a long gold-short stocks strategy may have been the equivalent of "getting killed"
Furthermore, you like every other person who seems to take offense with our less than Kool Aidy take on markets, always seems to assume that we recommend stock trades? Well, please point out one instance of that...
...we can wait...
...still waiting...
Oh, and if by recommending trades you refer to occasional aberrations in the market which we highliht which are nothing less than a glitch in the matrix, and which end up being almost exclusively profitable, then yes, you are correct that we "provide advice." The problem is that those who follow it are now up about 48%. Not exactly getting killed.
As for gold, which we do have a soft spot for, well... the charts above speak for themselves.
tyler, your a gladiator. you go, defend til the death. you got F I G H T !
good solid cult traits in you, sir. the people's leader. well, i am including myself under the ZH crowd umbrella, and i certainly don't consider myself getting killed this last year. quite the opposite, been reborn, more to life than making profits/money or portfolio envy, doo doo. your worth more than the S&P, DOW and g o l d, babe, your beyond platinum.
Intra-day convergence arb, bitchez!
The price action can't be denied, but there's no foundation (volume) holding up the house (market). Which is why the current bout of melt-up nonsense won't continue for long.
A house of cards it is... There's a 16 point unfilled gap on the ES from this past Wednesday just waiting to be filled. Gaps usually fill (full or half) within a fairly short period of time. Either way, this market has been shooting up two days in a row with zero retracement... This is not normal and cannot be sustained.
Bonds appear to be on the verge of a nice spike up as well.
And I agree, CNBC sucks. Lol!
My vix calls are gettin hammered.
Looking at the VIX is interesting... If you look at a daily chart, the Bollinger Bands have closed within the Keltner Channel creating a "squeeze". This is obviously a period of quietness. There will be a breakout which will result in a big move in the stock indices. If the VIX drops below the lows of 8/9, lookout! But if the market continues in it's big picture trend we could see the VIX breakout to the upside big time. Stay nimble as always...
didja thimk that volume is down 'cuz wedgies have no incentive to trade a trendless market?
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