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Volume Recap: Same Low Volume, Different BTFD Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The chart below confirms what we have all grown to love and expect from the robotic algo stock trading bias, on days when volume does not exist. The trade here is obviously tomorrow's NFP, which is at a critical junction: should Bernanke wish to proceed with QE3 this may be his last opportunity to doctor the employment data to start a smooth transition toward further monetization expectation. Should NFP be a blow out, the next NFP report will be in April and it will have to be truly abysmal for anyone in Congress to buy that further monetary intervention is required just two months ahead of the end of QE2 in June. On the other hand, Bernanke wants stock prices to be as high as possible at the point when the transition to a QE-free environment occurs, assuming of course, anyone at the Fed believes the economy can ever exist without a daily dump of $5-7 billion.

And the chart for all the dollar fans:

 

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Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:33 | 1016262 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"Should NFP be a blow out, the next NFP report will be in April and it will have to be truly abysmal for anyone in Congress to buy that further monetary intervention is required just two months ahead of the end of QE2 in June"

As if Bernanke cares what congress says.  And besides, didn't B Frank ask Ben if he would print more money BECAUSE of higher oil???

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:41 | 1016285 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Any free-thinking human (i know they are a dying breed on this corrupt planet) can see that in no mathematical, logical or intuitive way can this end well.

Evil runs amuck on this planet, and always wins, always has, always will. Even when you think the good guys have won for a change, if you look behind the curtain, behind all the bull and propaganda, you will find the good guys weren't actually the good guys.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:48 | 1016318 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

the good guys always win...in the movies. in real life...not so much.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1016356 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

Good guys usually win by dying young and get to go to heaven earlier. I'd rather hang around till the last minute and be in hell later on, I want to enjoy my decadent life a little longer if you don't mind.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:50 | 1016321 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

No worries, mate. You should sleep well knowing our benevolent Ben has an exit strategy. It is a fact. It involves a gulfstream jet and a private island, but an exit strategy it is.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:16 | 1016620 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

 

LOL +1

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:17 | 1016423 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Say three Lloyd Blankenfeins and two Ben Bernankes so that your sins may be forgiven ...

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:43 | 1016300 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

BTFD = Biting the Fu*k!n& Dust

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:46 | 1016308 Racer
Racer's picture

or BTFIP(Iron Pyrite) or BTFFG

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:46 | 1016303 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Is this article suggesting that the inner party can't make 1+1 = 3 ?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:47 | 1016312 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

if you want to see a truly depressing USD chart...look at a chart starting in 2001 to today. Next stop.....Zimbabwe.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:51 | 1016329 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

why is there never a straightjacket and a white van handy when you really need one?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:53 | 1016336 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Bagdad Bob style statement or pee on my leg and tell me it is raining.

He must know how to read!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1016351 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yeah and Charlie Sheen said he isa warlock with tiger blood. Inclined to believe him over anything Geithner says.

In fact inclined to believe that Sheen should be the next treasury secretary.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:52 | 1016529 brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

BOOM!  WINNING!  Y'KNOW??

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:47 | 1016317 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Dammit JimThe Dollar is near death. What now Spock?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:50 | 1016328 Misean
Misean's picture

Dammit Jim! I'm a real Doctor, not a PHkD Economist!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:05 | 1016801 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Well captain, the rational procedure would be to cut QE and POMO and face reality. However, considering earthlings are not rational, especialy the ones in charge, I expect we should do the opposite, but still a most irrational move: create a panic, crash equities, drive up the dollar and bonds. Finally put it in hyperdrive, and as Bobby Orr use to say, lets get the puck out of here.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 19:18 | 1016847 Orly
Orly's picture

Three point four million Holodeck simulations have produced exactly four good outcomes, three of which require some sort of religious intervention, however.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:50 | 1016324 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

On the same theme check out this great article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/256287-who-s-propping-up-the-market

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:58 | 1016350 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

This dude from seaking alpha better watch out, he is asking too many questions

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:10 | 1016388 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

oh, please, we all know who is doing it and who has been doing it for months....

its JPM and GS funded with bennie boy's newly printed cash -- courtesy of the peasantry who will have to make good on all this funny money some day....

not that anyone cares....they'll be long gone...

oh, is that a jet out there on the tarmac warming up? did they get allthe gold loaded?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:52 | 1016335 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I know I can't exist without my daily dump.

I just wish I could blow dollars out my ass like good ole uncle Bennie.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:57 | 1016340 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Absolutely no chance of the market selling off whatsoever.

Zero.

Nada.

Zip.

As long as the USDX continues to collapse in a heap, and the CRB Index keeps grinding up.

 

But if TPTB pulls off a Don Coxe "Midnight Massacre", then all bets are off, and we can short huge for another waterfall collapse and vicious rally in the dollar.

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:00 | 1016361 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

That is exactly what I am thinking of, el dollar might give us a nice surprise, for a change, would be short lived and a one time(last time) event but...!

And there is also(still) oglio di Lybia, eh!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:02 | 1016365 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

The market did well in Zimbabwe also.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:12 | 1016397 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Exactly.  Who wants to be a Zimbabwean Millionaire anyway?  The public is so trained into thinnking of price in nominal terms of dollars as a unit of price.  Price these equity markets in silver or gold and show how those nominal dollar rises in the markets is really making them richer or not. 

Oh well, fuck the public.  They will reap what they so. 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 02:57 | 1017769 Unbeliever
Unbeliever's picture

You honestly think this mess is of the public's creation?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:22 | 1016435 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Yay... soon we'll all be billionaires!!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:02 | 1016369 Orly
Orly's picture

Speaking of Robo: I was just about to say...

This is the blow-off top.  The turn-down shouldn't be vicious but quite deliberate and pains-takingly slow and on increasing volume.  The next three months should be a bit easier for 4X traders the world over.  Hopefully, we can rid the world of this inane volatility (in 4X...) since we don't have to hear Trichet assure the world that he can raise rates...and he just might do it!

Don't make me count to three, Jean-Claude.

SPX to 1044.

Rejoice!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:51 | 1017186 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Amen to that Orly , because the first 2 months certainly haven't been easy for us FX traders .

 Jean Claude Trichet has ruined more trades of mine with his cheerleading and " inflation concern " comments than I care to recall . With one sentence today ( that the ECB may increase rates as soon as April ) he's effectively ruined the prospects for a prolonged and sustained drop in the Euro . I mean just look at those Pound frontrunners . They've been piling into Sterling days before BOE rate decisions  and Mervyn King has never alluded to a rate hike at the subsequent meeting . Imagine how many speculators will be jumping on board the EUR long bandwagon in the run up to the April ECB meeting after being told that an increase is possible next month . 

To Robo I'd say the Dollar is right at an inflection point and it's unlikely that it will continue to descend smoothly from here . DXY is currently testing a very solid rising 3 year trendline and moreover articles like this are starting to appear in the MSM . A true hallmark of market turns .

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110301-714544.html

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:07 | 1017233 Orly
Orly's picture

Looks like they're going to flat-line everything going into the NFP tomorrow.  It's all about the USDJPY and the UST 10-year note.

If it's bad, money should move out of stocks, into bonds, pushing the yield down.  As the yield goes, the USDJPY goes, as goes the EURJPY.

Best of luck trading, Ferg!

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:26 | 1017274 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

I'm not so sure . Things are just ... zany at the moment . The AUD/USD-SPX correlation has gone to hell , USD can't bounce whether yields rise , data is positive or equities decline and speculators are showing no signs of ending their ongoing threesome with the Euro and Jean Claude Trichet .

 To hell with it though , until things revert to normal I'm just going to continue to play the role of a nimble , plain vanilla , price action intraday scalper  .

Best of luck Orly !

If you decide to brave the bloated spreads and adrenline pumping volatility of NFP Friday then do let me know how you get on :)

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 22:47 | 1017306 Orly
Orly's picture

Well, my sense is that the market is timing in some bad news.  Of course, in retrospect, they can make any market move sound almost believable...except today, what with Chavez going to broker a deal with Lybia and oil went down thirty-four cents.  What rubbish!

If anything, the Euro was in blow-off mode (which was what I was speaking about earlier, as I don't really care about stocks one iota...) and is due for a come-down.  About five minutes before the announcement, take a small position in USDJPY and EURJPY short and the EURUSD long.  That way, at least you have some sort of hedge and your winner can run while you kill the hedge.

Best thing to do is just watch it, though, then play the retracements, depending on how "bad" the data are, of course.  But, I don't know.  The AUDUSD and the GBPUSD pairs are trying to sneak out under the radar to the downside.  Those are probably your better bets tomorrow.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 20:03 | 1020860 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

To be honest I would have thought that a wildcard like Chavez entering the diplomatic mix would have had an adverse effect on markets !

Euro is getting frothy but that ECB press conference was a game changer . No way it'll tank with the possibility of a rate hike in April .  I think there'll be a minor correction next week but I've lost faith that we'll see a major drop against USD ( at least for the next month or so ) , unless of course things really start spiking , in which case some onerous , Euro negative comments will start to conveniently appear . EUR/JPY is another matter though .

I actually never enter prior to NFP ,  usually like to fade the initial reaction . Made a quick scalp on GBP/USD and EUR/USD but I'm beating my head against a wall for not shorting GBP/JPY up around 135.00 . I'd been keeping an eye on it all week , patiently waiting for a spike up into that area and I missed the entry . Maddening !

Pretty disappointing NFP Friday to be honest . Very small daily ranges and no signs of a DXY rally .

 

 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:03 | 1016569 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

+1 Robotrader

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1016352 pendragon
pendragon's picture

so since the close on 1st wti is up nearly 2bucks, the monkeys at the ecb are hardcoding an april rate hike and the s&p is up 30 handles....shurely shome mishtake

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:04 | 1016374 Orly
Orly's picture

The darkest hour is just before dawn.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:12 | 1016399 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black.

 

http://www.despair.com/despair.html

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:22 | 1017146 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

dang-I was in the food store tonight, saw the "motivational" posters and thought: "what if I printed out a bunch of 'despair.com' posters and taped them up ;-)

- Ned

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:01 | 1016358 Lapri
Lapri's picture

JPMorgue, Gaddafi's banker, says it's in the stars. Saw it at Market Watch.

“All the stars seem to be aligned for a stronger number,” said Anthony Chan, chief economist for J.P. Morgan Chase’s Private Wealth Management group.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:04 | 1016373 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

"No need for Congress to buy anything when we can buy Congress."

- Floyd Bankenstein

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:05 | 1016376 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Tyler ur Bloomberg data is clearly not right - CMBS and Bloomberg news says rally wif heavy volume

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:06 | 1016380 Cdad
Cdad's picture

On a day when the predicate for the rally was Hugo Chavez brokering peace in Libya causing oil to fall [a grand total of $.34 cents per barrel] bringing relief to shoppers.

We are really scraping the bottom of the barrel for rallies these days.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:13 | 1016400 Orly
Orly's picture

My point exactly, Da-daddio.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:54 | 1017193 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Isn't wonderful how the MSM always have to have an explanation for intraday market moves ?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:20 | 1016429 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

If QE stops(or POMO) then the market flash crashes.

Bernanke is at the whim of the primaries now and has to feed them infinitie money or they will show him who Daddy is.

We basically are running on cruise control. The market is on lifesupport. If the market was allowed to find true price discovery it would be about 8000DOW.

There is just no way the FED will stop QE3-4 etc-they need to boil the frog slowly, make sure the people have no clue how the system is transitioning underneath them. The slowness of this crash also allows the alpha class to hoard and protect their assets before the flood comes in.

The US is in a multidecade carwreck unfolding before our eyes. We can thank generations of bad politicians who allowed the corporate banking system to heist everything.

Ask not what your country can do for you, but what your country can DO TO you.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:23 | 1016436 Wascally Wabbit
Wascally Wabbit's picture

What I don't understand is why the Fed is pushing up stocks. Ok, Joe blow wants to see his portfolio up but it kills the bond market. Wouldn't you expect the Bernanke to dump stocks and get people to transfer into the treasury bubble? 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:30 | 1016458 Orly
Orly's picture

I think that the idea that Dr. Bernanke wishes to have everyone feel the "wealth effect" is actually blue smoke and mirrors.  What they are really trying to do is cause inflation, forcing businesses and people to spend higher and higher sums just to stay in place.

A nice side-effect is that we can ramp commodities, which absolutely cause inflation, despite the public line given by the government.  As commodities rise, we can rid ourselves of some over-paid dictators and install fresh punks who are not so accustomed to the trappings of power.  Commodity inflation makes for a nice cattle-prod on poor people.  Oh well.

As long as They can blow bubbles, They believe, They can re-inflate the global economy.  They haven't counted on people falling off the grid or playing in the black markets- or just not buying their bullshit any more.

But it's not about stocks at all.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:59 | 1016558 Wascally Wabbit
Wascally Wabbit's picture

Agreed, it's not totally about stocks but we can't completely dismiss the wealth feeling effect since Obama faces reelection and Bernanke will face reappointment. 

The Fed can still create inflation with open market operations through treasury purchases and commodities will still increase. 

I'm wondering why the sustained overemphasis on equities since it comes at the expense of higher treasury rates. Why would the Fed allow higher interest rates to creep in, even at the tail? If they increase stock volatility, people will move into Treasuries despite it being a bubble and lower rates.  I'm just trying to figure out where we go next. 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:28 | 1016448 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Nothing.

Absolutely nothing seems to stop the teens from buying $125 jeans at Abercrombie.

Of course, none of them drive cars yet....

LOL.....

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:44 | 1016512 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

and all those "new" jeans my teen girls buy have holes in them....on purpose.  SHit, I get hole in my jeans and my wife throws them away.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 17:48 | 1016523 Orly
Orly's picture

Watch ASX close in the red, then it's on like Donkey Kong.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:11 | 1016599 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

/ES was up 14 by 6AM, way before the market opened. This was no coincident the market ramped on the job data.

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:36 | 1016644 Orly
Orly's picture

That's because European stocks were up over one percent in the overnight.  Notice, though, that as the day went on, the DAX had a major sell-off and was only buoyed by the jobs report.

Tomorrow, they may not be so lucky.  Watch the Sydney exchange in the overnight, too.  My bet is they cannot get a good grip and begin to slip, which will lead to profit-taking in Europe, particularly in the DAX.

After the jobs report, and the idea that the numbers just don't add up to a sustainable recovery, QE II may prove to be politically unpalatable and some profit-taking will commence on the SPX as well.

It should prove to be an interesting night.

:D

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:25 | 1016650 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

If the jobs are up - it is an anomaly, there is no driver for rapid jobs growth. 

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 18:42 | 1016705 atlee
atlee's picture

Took a small long position in spxu at 16 on the close. Am I nuts? Early?

Thu, 03/03/2011 - 21:25 | 1017151 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Am I nuts?"

How the flock are we supposed to know?  Zero correlation with your trade, though. ;-)

- Ned

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:43 | 1028091 lsjcma
lsjcma's picture

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