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Volumeless Distribution Day; Market Efficiency Defined: Anadarko CDS 100 Wider As Stock Closes 5% Higher
This is how the market responds to a day fully replete with good news, and even more volume participation: three days worth of trading undone in one hour. The 20-day daily average cumulative volume in ES is 3.15 million. We closed 2.17 million, or 31% lower. Lesson for the day: when the machines are in "distribution" mode, you get out of the way. Especially with Obama about to announce 1 million newly employed people despite 450k+ consistent initial weekly claims. After all what good is the upcoming 0.5 million Birth-Death adjustment for if you can't use it to top off the 0.5 million new census hiring. And another indication of market efficiency: APC stock up 5%, even as its CDS closed +116 wider. Add imminent threat of bankruptcy to the list of upside stock drivers.
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So this is what it was like under Stalin? Funny. I expected it to be more somber. This is the happiest recession/depression that I've ever seen.
Well, I suppose there is a lot be concerned about.... Oh look, iPads!!!
You, Sir, just made me spill my coffee laughing. Thanks... I guess
no webcam.... USB?....
THE HORROR!!!
Propaganda and "reality" tv works wonders huh?
A lot of people I know- yea I'm in the gen y crowd, I'm mid 20s- are completely unaware of what's going on. Hell some of them didn't even know we had a crash and bailouts. They thought I was shitting them
when itold them about all this a few weeks ago. And the really bad thing was they didn't want to learn more about this. Their reply was " it's all just a load of shit that's why I don't worry about it or mess with it"
But every thing is a complete fucking joke now. I was thinking the other day about the same thing TD. How can any one take the jobs report seriously when initial jobless claims are still 450k+?
I wish this damn thig would just collapse and just get it over with.
I'm probably a couple of years older than you, and I tell you, it ain't different when they hit the big 3-0!
Youth are so brainwashed via apalling television content and a waste-of-time college education, most have no chance whatsoever.
So, they either have to live in "ignorance" mode, and absorb the junk stimuli that is so cleverly tossed their way just to numb themselves down, "give themselves something to do", or live in "fear" mode as they are at a crossroads: too inexperienced to gain decent employment, to old to suckle at the mother teat.
It's going to be an ugly generation.
Please, too depressing, a little hope. Wisdom, or at least alertness, arrives when:
a) Get a mortgage (this used to be how it worked).
b) Default on a mortgage (the gen-y version of a) ).
c) Can't borrow from the bank of Dad any more.
d) Marry.
e) Have a kid.
f) Divorce expensively.
Each of these is the arrival of some sort of responsibility. Something along the line will kick some brains into gear. Please dont be too pessimistic.
This roller coaster is getting pretty hairy.
I smell another flash crash around the corner. Only this time a black out of NYC, where all those co-located server farms reside, will be the only thing that saves man from himself. :>)
SSSsstt.. It's supposed to be a surprise! At least act surprised when it happens.
LOL. Nice, but only until The Squid was able to take advantage of the extremely low volume as a result and manipulate the open outcry market and work the tin can & string phones to sky the DOW another 10,000 points. Never count out their planing for every situation... scum bags.
I think a roller coaster is a good call we are gonna be trading sideways for awhile IMHO. I was on the verge of believing that the only way this market could head is down . But now I think it will trade in a range for a while only because that is the only "call" nobody is making right now .
Just another 200-point swing in the market, after a slew of them in May. Well, I guess today was just the top half of the swing.
Don't thing the swing set can hold the 500 lb., Fed-fed, Twinkie-stuffed "market" much longer.
You know CD, it's getting to the point where disingenuous has been bred with the bastard son of unbelievability and malfeasance, spawning complete and utter apathy.
I used to cringe at the people here who would cry, "just die already". Now I'm somewhere between right in there with them, and couldn't give a shit one way or the other.
Having any emotional investment in this is like actually giving a shit who wins a WWF match.
Cooper I'm ashamed to admit I will derive a great deal of satisfaction when the unwashed masses loose everything. At least I will feel vindicated. They will have no one to blame but themselves.
But, but Timmy still has a billion or so C shares to dump on some dipstick!! We wouldn't want him to get stuck with them, now would we ??? Just sayin, LOL.
I guess I have a little of that too. I was at a party the other night, sitting around the fire, pretty much shitfaced..... This couple of dumb bitches started talking about American Idol, some dude on Apprentice with hair plugs or some shit. I swear to God, I HATED them at that moment. I didn't just want to see them broken, I wanted them to stop wasting my oxygen.
Did you do em?
psst... most of the colo's are in new jersey......
I'm expecting Klaatu and Gort to fly in any day now and do the job!
I'll sacrifice my electricity for a while just to get this on with....
I give up. What is ES?
Tyler, seen a lot of "what is ES" lately, you may want to explain for people - by the way species, its the s&p 500 e-mini futures as far as I know....
Yeah, Tyler people do not seem to know about the glossary link at the top. Perhaps it could be embeded in the article.
Hurmph, not to critizise, but it could use some updating. I volunteer Harry W. with that task.
its the reuters and bloomberg code for e mini s&p futures ... (also known as spoos)
Oh, so ES means "spoos" -- why didn't they just say that
wait until they all find out that BO was just re-reading a campaign speech since that didnt have another one ready this afternoon..
LOL! They gotta have something for the teleprompter, so Plan B is always the Scranton speech.
Alright, if on average, the Algos account for >65% of trades, and trading was down 31%, do we conclude <5% of trades involved human decision making? Thus, this could be a watershed moment, wherein Skynet is at its penultimate point of power, perhaps but days away from achieving final sentience.
Shall we play a game?
so the game is to give a sense of false security in each of our 401k accounts and then at some point (probably as early as July) pull the rug out on the market, giving wall street their fat profits, create another panic sell off and get it to the point where we basically beg for inflation (thrown in with some relinquishing of some civil liberties) and off we go again from S&P 600 back to 1300, rinse repeat until the dollar is devalued to the point where we revive our export/manufacturing economy. All the while we get to throw out whichever politician is in office every 2, 4, 6, etc. years but it doesn't matter anyway since they're all pretty much the same (rape the middle class & maintain the power structure). upshoot for us folks is perhaps gold 5k (eta: 2020)
You may very well be right in your preditiction. Too bad that if your wash, rinse, repeat continues, gold 5000 will simply be a reflection of inflation, rather than a shift in monetary system.
ES = Eat shit
I say ADP job number tomorrow is zero and we are down 215pts on the DJIA.
Let the roller coaster continue....weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On FM tonight, they seemed to mention that both Biden and Obama made very positive comments about the job number for Friday. I would guess they have seen it, and think it's good.
ES = eviscerates shorts
Damn, maybe the world isn't ending and you should be buying those dips! :)
Maybe you're right, and you should. But maybe you should also be selling the shit out of the rallies too.
One possibility does not eliminate the other Leo.
Depends on the type of probability.
Yes, I am SMARTASS
Leo, but why are all of the ups on lousy vol? How do reconcile that? I find this stage of the rally to be unconvincing abd would like to get your view.
This whole low volume argument is pure nonsense. Market volume is way overplayed here. I have seen the market rally for months on low vol.
I don't think so. More volume would suggest more people getting back into the market. Does supply and demand not apply to stocks?
The only time volume doesn't matter as much is when you have monopoly or price collusion, right?
I'll agree with you here.
IMO, a rally on low volume is bullish, as insiders are able to move the market up without excessive outsider participation.
I still don't see how that makes sense. Unless if by "bullish" you mean "easily manipulated".
Insiders are going to need someone to sell to. I don't think the masses, mostly baby boomers, are going to come back to stock market like the ways of the past.
Mutual fund flows continue to show people pulling money out of US equities.
Technically I agree it can rally for months. But what happened then, at the end of the months-long rally?
I'm thinking of the market behaviour in 2010, for example. Or the overall behaviour since 2000. Both negative.
For me, long is wrong overall. It just feels very stetched and low volume rallies are a symptom of that.
Leo, your posts are getting worse than the most moronic trolls on here. Eeeer......wait........never mind.
Weren't you the moron who thought the Bank of Canada wouldn't raise rates? Keep buying the dips, and get your teeth fixed..LOL!
Leo, a tepid 0.25 increase in the face of 6.1% GDP growth and "don't count on more" statement is not exactly buying the dips material.
For the record, I have no fucking idea HOW you are buying these dips, Leo, you never sell anything. Or, has Uncle Ben install a portable version of one of his Heidelbergs in your basement and you haven't posted about it?
Keep cutting and pasting pension articles, Leo, it's the only thing you are good at.
I have said that for 6 months now. Leo is a fucking liar, first he said long time ago he trades for a living, and when I questioned how he keeps buying dips and never selling, he then said he consults on the side.
He is worse than Harrywagner. HE IS A FUCKING LIAR.
OH YA KEEP CUTTING AND PASTING
Deep, and I invited you to Montreal to tell this to my face. I will show you my trades, ya big moron!
Leo,
Do you think CSIQ tanking to the tune of 15% on such a strong day is a good sign?
CSIQ opened up -20% and finished -15%. In a year, it will be back over $30 a share, if not much higher. And you can mark this post.
I hear the Fed's called in James Cameron, director of "Titanic" to help with the oil spill.
OK, marked. It would seem to be a big FX call, Leo...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=CSIQ%3AUS&sid=a1z...
I love it when a CFO says they dont have currency hedges, it makes life easy. It means they are either clueless morons, or gamblers. I dont want to invest in either! Get a new CFO who isnt betting his company on the severity of general strikes in europe over the summer.
Oooh and an SEC subpoena too. Admittedly this may be temporary, maybe this is why you are bullish.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=CSIQ%3AUS&sid=aR8...
But when a company actually goes to zero, isnt this how it starts? If I was long, I'd own the $5 puts too.
Um..did you really go there with your argument??
Well hey past few days futures opened the market down 100 then we rallied 200 into the close. GOOD NEWS!
And hey, BP opened down 12% but ended the day only 10% down!
Your love for anything and everything solar is irrational at the very least.
for fuck sake Leo, the point is even buying the dips we keep ending up in the same place. Big deal. Up 200 down 200 up 1000 down 1000.
Perhaps Leo read this:
http://www.amazon.com/Jim-Cramers-Getting-Back-Even/dp/1439158010/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1275514585&sr=8-1
So um.. you're assuming you know where the dip is..
Sorry - but to say you know where the dip is (or anyone for that matter) automatically puts you at BS status.. esp. that Skynet is buying up crap on low volume days.
I like those green arrows. I never knew what a dip was - I thought it was something made with guacamole.
By the same logic, I should probably sell right at the various peaks, before the dips, right?
Basically, I should just buy low and sell high.
I'm gonna be a fucking trillionaire. Thanks for the fantastic advise, Leo!
LOL THAT WAS FUNNY
+5. Then -1. Then +6. Then -1. Then +8. See you're already up to +17. Leo is onto something.
You don't want to go here, Leo:
The Future of Business
What stories will dominate the financial world in 2008? Our Wall Street guru makes his predictions.
By James J. Cramer Published Dec 30, 2007
1. Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction—an inevitability. In fact, it’s only January, and I think it’s already come true.
Leo
If someone skates on thin ice and happens not to fall through, would you advise everyone to get on the ice and give it a try?
Personally, I'd tell everyone to go inside and wait for better days.
Get on the ice and play the game!
It does not matter what Leo says I agree with him.
Wouldn't a big jobs number mean Fed raises rates sooner. I know that isn't reality, but that will be the excuse for the freefall in stocks on Friday.
The only way to end the ponzi scam, is to stop buying anything, stop paying for anything, horde cash, buy metals with it. Then and only then will Benny be seriously in deep deep trouble not only in the US but worldwide. Everyone worldwide, spread the word, stop paying. Stop shopping except for necessities. Quit playing the ponzi game. Pull your money completely out of this stock market scam, before you get burned again.
When a market like this get to the point where it makes absolutely no sense, and we are well beyond that point, it makes no sense to gamble in the casino. The casino being everything. It is all being manipulated, no market is free anymore. The more you play, the more you make crooks like GS and JPM richer, while you become poorer.
YEEHAW! Guns, ammo, canned food! It's a jungle out there. Don't fight the system, pal, you'll go nuts.
ES = exuberant speculator
Look, let us increase the mediocre returns of your investment account through employing the well hidden house (Wall Street) secret - the leverage.
And it's gone !
What?
Well, it's gone. Next!
Hot blonde alert on Fox Business.
Get her name so we can post up a pic!
Sandra Smith
http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/jwAiiguQrpS/Fox+Business+Network+Launch+Party/fhFBWvuuuku/Sandra+Smith
I am reminded of a golf ball bouncing down a steep flight of stairs, every bounce seems higher as it falls further down....
great fucking analogy!
Go back to sucking that golf ball through that garden hose!
Please, no family pictures
Hmmmmmm, that's some goooood hopium ya got there!!
Ponzi masters are pumping up the market again to get the suckers back in so they can sell....same old play book.
Friday's employment figures will be totally bogus but who is going to call their bluff???
Real economy different story, watch the layoffs continue...
BTW - the bong picture depicts how the government looks at the population - high with a stupid grin, new unemployment numbers 5.5%!