Waiting For A Nuclear Bomb
Markets are grinding around sideways, meanwhile most participants are waiting to see if a nuclear bomb is going to go off between now and the end of the year. As usual, money is fleeing back into dollars, bonds, and REITs, the typical safe havens during a brewing "crisis".
Most people have sold and "locked in gains' for the year. Others are waiting like vultures, ready to jump in prior to year end to get a head start over the rest of the pack.
Same old, same old waiting game.
Which way? Which way?
Just to show how scared people are to stay in stocks, just look at the near vertical launch in the dollar the last few weeks. The Forex Gridbot Megadroid players must be having a field day:
Otherwise, I couldn't find much of anything else happening, other than the Options Expiration short squeezes in Winnebago and Rite Aid..
And what's up with BAC?? A vote of no confidence on Moynihan?
And why can't the Vampire Squid get any attention today?
Just your usual chaos during light volume holiday trading during Options Expiration week, that's all.
I'll say I'm impressed with the market's resilience with handling the following:
1. Straight up move in the dollar
2. Blowout spreads in PIIG debt
3. Sky high unemployment getting worse
4. Fresh new lows in economic activity
Seems like the market should have cratered on this news, but so far, its holding up OK.
I guess that's what happens when you get ridiculously low interest rates, and our foreign debt enablers finance our speculations.
Thanks to the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" feedback loop discussed here many times....
(8 votes)
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on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:49
#167939
I remain convinced that if nuclear winter wiped out every city on earth but NYC and DC the market would be up because of "low rates for an even more extended period of time"
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:47
#168037
Very well said.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:50
#167941
Wha? No pics of bombs? Wha!!
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:54
#167949
Will you share a full-res blow-up size copy of your avatar pic when the nuke goes off?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:57
#167959
he did once.
it is due again.
as to the headline: Waiting For A Nuclear Bomb
for a second there Robo I thought you were doing an article on Iran or the Taliban/Al Q crew in Pakistan.
where's the meat?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:55
#167953
Will move up in small steps or the bottom will fall out. Incredible good risk/reward setup on otm / far otm put spreads with lowishvol. Do n.o.t. short the upside, just layer into putspreads and wait. No guarantees of course, I have lost the plot already 3 months ago, but amazing potential. This is their problem, don't make it yours.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:55
#167956
Forgot to look at the TLT and CECO... damn.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:57
#167960
Here's one that got "Nuclear Bombed"
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 15:59
#167963
Damn...
I love the 50 starting to fall off the cliff. Hilarious.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:29
#168011
Now we're cookin'!
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:07
#167979
My condolences go out to the holders of SRS. On a day like this you would think you would get more than a 1% gain. Been there done that. The most depressing ETF on the planet.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:16
#167992
Amen.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:39
#168029
Although 'holders' of any leveraged short ETF probably don't deserve any condolences per se, this has to hurt to look at for SRS:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF:SRS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p06326300734
But still, it could be worse. You could have picked one that bet on a commodity bubble:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMN&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p18036239605
Not bad enough? How about being a silver bear:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZSL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52510808521
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:22
#168448
ZSL has given me nuthin'.
neither has UUP.
despite well-timed entry.
i'd really like to know who's picking my pocket. whoever it is, apparently they hold a federal license to do so.
FAZ has been good for a quick scalp, but is ultimately the same devil spawn as the others so is not recommended.
agree with the other poster- puts are cheap here and gravity is on your side. i'm mostly cash still, with my meager positions in 50% pm calls (as of today) and 50% puts/FAZ & EDZ calls.
we'll see. the next crash will be slo-mo, not drastic and sharp like the last one. unfortunately there won't be a 60% or any tradeable rally at the end of it, just a terminal range.
overall i'm not expecting too much excitement beyond the occasional bankrupcy of those ragged unfortunates turned away from the gov money teat, it'll just be the slow grind of wealth destruction as suckers enter hoping for another miracle rally. hopefully commodities and pm's will prove a pleasant diversion, but no matter what options seem the safest bet as volatility will rule, i believe, and cash quite possibly will remain king.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:08
#167981
I dunno- closed at LOD, haven't seen that in a while, and the exit doors seemed awfully crowded there at the end.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:09
#167984
Robo- if the boys want an eyeful, give them my avatar full size- I assume you can gain access.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:21
#168002
Nice avatar but better be careful chasing the kitty kat. Causes even powerful men problems i.e. Tiger and Mister Cohen. GS soooo weak since mid-October. What's going on? IAG very nice short today for a few hours when it broke $16, and I love gold but if it's going down so am I.
I'd love to be invited to the beach with these two;
http://www.hawaiibusiness.com/images/2008/May2008/NOW/0508_now_jetsetpic.jpg
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:31
#167996
No nuclear bomb but LDK Solar (LDK) got whacked today, down 15%:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LDK
Huge volume. Seen this before...big hedgies are scooping it up at these levels. Watch it going forward.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:37
#168023
I remember Jimmy Carter saying this as he sat in the oval office with that cardigan sweater......
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:29
#168088
Leo I assume you have seen this
(pdf warning)
http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/backgrounder_122.pdf
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 19:58
#168253
Yes, thank you.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:20
#167999
Who is buying Dollars?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:36
#168022
Every time there´s a scheduled appearance of the helicopter of the year in the news, you get to read from the newswires that "Brazil buys bucks" along with the dollar. Been going on for months now. Also PM´s getting spanked at these moments.
Has FED ever involved in manipulating the markets?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 18:34
#168172
Short the dollar, long "stuff" is a HUGE trade, plenty of pain left there for those that are wrong side. Dollar looks like its just getting warmed up.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73288021752
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:20
#168000
RIMM going wild after the bell, up $6
Wow, what a bounce...
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:36
#168018
Hehehehe...not just any bounce... up $7.50 in AH now..RIMM will soar from these levels...
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 18:46
#168185
RIMM and stock markets worldwide will roll over from these levels. Broadening tops and heavy distribution for weeks and weeks, the bandits made it to the bonus round. The party is over.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 16:38
#168027
Damn, that looks too much like the girlfriend's boobs.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:25
#168084
Guys,
Have you noticed that for good boobs the boob frequency is exactly the double of the the step frequency?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 20:07
#168267
There is a downward shock on the boobs as each foot hits the earth, centaur ladies with big boobs would have four times the step boob shake frequency.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:28
#168455
i swear i used to know a gal who had to wear a back brace.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:06
#168063
XOM buying XTO may flag nukes causing a Persian Gulf disruption, real soon.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:27
#168087
One of those DX charts looks to be from 2001...
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:51
#168119
great post. I am glad someone is thinking along my lines.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 17:53
#168125
I'm sorry - are you kidding? REITS as a "safehaven"? You just threw that in there to fuck with us right? They are just trying to burn all the Dec. IYR put that are out there. They won't succeed with the Jan puts.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 18:16
#168156
it ain't the foreigners enabling speculation that keeps the farce bid
IT'S SATAN GEITHNER BERNANKE LP
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 06:54
#168575
Satan resigned from that venture a long time ago, citing 'ethical concerns'. Didn't you get the memo?
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 19:58
#168254
Since when were REITS considered a "safe haven" in a deep recession? IYR is WAAAAY overbought. A 10% haircut would be a nice trim for the end of the year. Of course I think it looks better bald!
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 21:57
#168355
Momo greater fool REIT plays,
SRS targeting zero.
Wait until investment bank credit dries up
and FDIC credit line broke.
Then the game is over, tilt, and cash in
pocket will be the ultimate carry trade.
Not one man in a million understands deflation.
This time gold and bonds go broke...
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 00:28
#168498
Ain't the FDIC kinda broke already? Please enlighten us further.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 22:03
#168364
Be careful what you ask for. In Israel, the five new Dolphin submarines and the two existing Gal submarines are now outfitted with nuclear cruise missiles. Israel has a massive fleet of unmanned robotic patrol boats, which could easily start a conflict. Iran's new solid state missile can be fired in an instant, from one of its many new silos...a nuclear conflict is almost inevitable. Dust off your copies of Hermann Kahn's On Thermonuclear War cause we will be livin it.
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 00:09
#168486
Three of the "new" Dolphins entered service in 1999 and 2000.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/germany-may-sell-2-more-dolphin-subs-to-israel-for-117b-01528/
While not old, and certainly formidable if handled well, they don't really qualify as new.
The Gal subs have been retired. One is in a museum:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/134558
Whether any of their submarines actually carry nukes is open to question. The Popeye II cruise missile supposedly has the capability, but it hasn't been independently verified. Sometimes the rumor is just as good as the purported fact (and much, much cheaper).
As to the "massive fleet" of robotic patrol boats, how many are we talking? The boats themselves are quite small, which would imply limited range.
http://www.israelnewsagency.com/navyterrorismisraelidfweapons481020.html
Good for coastal defense, but that's about it. Once over the horizon (about 20 miles at sea), they would be difficult, if not impossible to navigate. The claim of 50km range for the gun in the article above is certainly a mistake. That's 30 miles. There is no naval gun on the planet that shoots that far. 5km is more likely, but certainly not with "laser" accuracy.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 22:46
#168420
ATG,
I've been thinking lately that gold would tank, but I couldn't quite put my finger on why. What say you here at ZH to this possibility: As the stock market swans downward, as the CRE and RRE overhangs stop hanging around, as unemployment goes up, I would expect people to cash in their gold (and silver) just to cover the grocery bill.
I just can't see this many people continuing to afford the luxury of gold holdings for the next round of squeeze.
Plus, I think India was totally suckered into buying all that IMF gold at the top.
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 00:26
#168496
What are you guys talking about? How many people actually own gold? There are millions of people already dependant on the government, hardly anyone owns gold.. You talk like everyone has a stash of PM's in their basement. They are going to inflate their way out of this, no doubt.
Yes, if our politicians and bankers had the balls to let deflation run its course it would be a different story, but they dont and they will print our way out period.
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 00:29
#168499
wildebeast
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 07:55
#168592
India has been playing the gold game for a lot longer than the Rothschilds.
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 22:48
#168422
USD uptrend continues, but overbought atm
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
on Thu, 12/17/2009 - 23:20
#168445
GS is down big the past few weeks...and again today. So RB, does that mean its a vote of no confidence of Blankfein?
In case anyone cares, GS is getting their ass handed to them by JPM and BAC...2 stocks i would load up on here and if they pull back even more..back up the truck
http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1719894520091218?rpc=44
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 03:34
#168547
Maybe not, for those below the "top 30" who got cash bonuses instead of restricted stock, they can use their cash (with leverage courtesy of you and me of course) to buy GS shares at these bargain prices. Come January, GS or their mates' prop desks would chase it up to $200, they can double their bonuses non?
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 06:41
#168573
some thing wicked
this way comes ...
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 06:58
#168577
Kind of wondered if the fellas at GS were shorting their own stock to lock in the current price until they can cover with their locked up bonus stock? Been wondering that a couple months.
Remember the strange case of UUP and the trading halt and the excess demand for stock BEFORE the current run up in the dollar. Even I KNEW that was clue the dollar was going to spike. I'd guess insiders knew about the PIIG downgrades.
Notice how well oil is behaving and how badly gold is behaving. I think the fast money crowd is blowing out gold and sneaking into oil for the New Year.
on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 07:14
#168581
Perhaps it is that when the chips are all down, the U.S. plans to go it alone. It will seize all the countries that it has military bases in, and voila! everyone's goose is cooked but ours. That is one way to cancel the debt, no?