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Wanna Lose Everything? Follow a 100% “Certain” Forecast From a Guy Who’s Been Wrong 100% of the Time

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

Anyone
doubting that the powers that be are getting desperate to maintain stock prices
should consider that announcements of Bailout Ben Bernkanke’s appearance on 60
Minutes and his proposed claim that he may increase QE 2 was enough to kick off
a 3+% ramp job in stocks last week.

 

Regardless
of this mindlessness, Bernanke’s appearance did offer us a glimpse into his
thinking or lack thereof. Many commentators have been stunned by his assertion
that he is “100% certain” he can control inflation. I wasn’t. After all,
Bernanke’s been nothing if not 100% certain of himself while being 100% wrong
for the last five years.

 

Why break
the streak?

 

For anyone
who still takes this man seriously, I strongly suggest watching the below video
chronicling his forecasts from 2005 onward. If it weren’t for the fact that his
predecessor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan, was also wrong about everything, the following
would make you want to run face first into a wall.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw

 

The most
important item I want to focus on is the fact that Bernanke didn’t see the 2008
Crisis coming, because it gives us an excellent understanding of how out of
touch Bernanke is (or pretends to be) when it comes to systemic risk in the
markets.

 

In this
context, his assertion that he is “100% certain” he can control inflation
should be a clear warning to investors that inflation is coming in a BIG way in
the future. Bernanke has been flat out 100% WRONG on everything, particularly
his own abilities, over the last five years. So be prepared to see inflation
explode soon.

 

In fact it
already has.

 

Both Oil and
Gold have roughly doubled in price per Dollars since Fed first started buying
Treasuries in March 2009:

 

 

Similarly,
agricultural commodities are up some 53% since the Fed announced QE 1.

 

 

Forget
Bernanke’s claim he can control inflation, the inflationary genie is already
out of the bottle. Seriously, the charts don’t like: guy’s talking about his
ability to control inflation and it’s already here.

 

So let’s add
an “inflationary storm” to the list of things Ben Bernanke has been 100% wrong
about over the last five years. This makes the official list:

 

1)   A
housing bubble in the US

2)   A
recession happening in the US

3)   The
subprime crisis being contained

4)   The
2008 Crisis happening

5)   US
housing bottoming

6)   A
recovery occurring in the US economy

7)   Inflation
hitting the US

 

Seriously,
HOW does this guy still have a job let alone any credibility?

 

Good Investing!

Graham Summers

 

PS. If you
believe, as I do, that Ben Bernanke hasn’t got a clue about the financial
system and that his policies will end in an unmitigated disaster, I highly
suggest you download my FREE Special Report regarding the coming Second Round of
the Financial Crisis.

 

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit.
And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection,
which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock
market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

 

Again, this
is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com
and click on FREE REPORTS.

 

 

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Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:43 | 786376 Crack Daddy
Crack Daddy's picture

United States businesses are reliant on the FED.  You can never end the FED. 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:43 | 786380 akak
akak's picture

You chose your name here well.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:41 | 786372 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

It is scary to think that way...he really is a shill. Fucking Heb gives the rest of us Heb's a bad name....

He is as wrong as my sense of direction.

I know for certain he knows he's lying...sure he will tell you he never has rubbed one off either!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:43 | 786377 akak
akak's picture

Suddenly, for some strange reason I have a hankering for some Double Mint gum.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:41 | 786370 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

It is scary to think that way...he really is a shill. Fucking Heb gives the rest of us Heb's a bad name....

He is as wrong as my sense of direction.

I know for certain he knows he's lying...sure he will tell you he never has rubbed one off either!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:38 | 786363 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

you want the truth?

YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:25 | 786314 Dr. Goose
Dr. Goose's picture

A significant foundation of Mr. Summers' argument is weakened by his use of soft commodities as proof that inflation has arrived.  While this may be true in the strict sense that prices of corn, wheat, sugar etc. have risen dramatically, the actions of Dr. Bernanke and his Fed cohorts have played a small role.  Soft commodity prices are global in nature and depend on things like crop yields, which are influenced in turn by weather, pestilence, fire and floods; as well as shifts in demand, such as we have seen from China in particular.  

If the hikes in commodity prices were due to the debasement of the dollar, we might have expected an equally dramatic downward shift in the US Dollar Index.  While such  a downward shift has occurred to an extent, it explains only a part of the commodity price movement.

I have not followed enough of Dr. Bernanke's career to know whether his "miss rate" is indeed 100%, but on this one, it appears that Mr. Summers' shot has gone somewhat off-goal.

http://www.limericksecon.com

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:41 | 786283 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I wish this were as innocent as incompetence. Benny has been promised a tidy retirement seat in the global framework that has been erected to catch this mess when it finally comes down. It doesn't hurt that meanwhile he can feed his power lust the same way rock feeds a crack addict.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:55 | 786189 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

"Never underestimate the replacement power of equities in an inflationary Zimbabwe-like, police-state, crony-capitalist spiral."

Gold and Silver should crash now that Assange is in jail. The looters are taking control.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:44 | 786137 Robslob
Robslob's picture

AND everybody knows that happens by 12-21-12 or was it 12-12-12...crap...can't keep any numbers straight in my head anymore...because they are just numbers.

Like employment, the deficit, paper currency, budgets, earnings and just about everything else...

Just going to start counting grams and ounces from now on...

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:11 | 786005 tempo
tempo's picture

I am 100% certain $WTIC will reach $150/bbl effectively a tax on the poorest souls.

I am 100% certain that there will be civil unrest when student loans/grants are cut.

I am 100% certain housing prices will continue to decline for many years.

I am 100% certain the rich will become richer and are planning to relocate to other safe havens when the poop hits the fan.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:42 | 785881 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

The bigger the lie, the more sheeple will believe it. I'm out of the stock market. Gold/Silver tell a different story. One that I can believe in. Fuck You Bernanke, Geithner, Masters,,,,you get my point.

 

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:25 | 785798 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Right,

Finally what I have YEARNED for may take place, time to drive a stake thru the heart of this corrupt FU we call the Peoples Gv't.

Bring it on.

http://www.slate.com/id/2276463/pagenum/2

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:23 | 785783 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

So here we sit, Americans all....well some of us.

What the hell are we gonna do about it?

Nothing.

We got the man we deserve in office and we got the man we deserve running the Fed.

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:17 | 785747 WSP
WSP's picture

I do not recall every reading commentary from Phoenix Research Capital or this author in the past, but I can say with absolute certainty that this commentary is spot on; but not for the reasons the author is giving (which are dead 100% also).

The reason why I know in no uncertain terms that this author is right in his assertions is most likely Bernanke gets his economic research from Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International, a research company that like Bernanke (and Greenspan before him) is ALWAYS 100% WRONG.

So, for what is worth to those willing to listen, you can be sure that not only does Phoenix Capital Research have it dead own based on their own, independent research, but we can easily confirm this simply by taking comfort in the fact that Bernanke gets his economic research from Robert Prechter and the entire lunatic fringe at Elliott Wave International; a research company that never gets it right about anything.

FWIW!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:16 | 785745 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

bernankula is a total out and out incompetent fraud carrying water for the bankster plutocrat elites....fuck him, fuck the fed and fuck the cia and hillary whore

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:10 | 785705 SparkySC
SparkySC's picture

He should be Tried for Treason. PERIOD. 

 

He has basically dry humped the American people and is now adding sand to the mix.

 

Americans need to take this country back from the Bankers and the FED.

I feel for the brave men and women who have fought hard and died for this country and now this country has turned into a giant ShitSandwich because of these punk Financial 'wizards' / OUTRIGHT THIEVES!!!!!

 

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:09 | 785695 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Interesting, but no cigar.  Commodities are a poor surrogate or measure of inflation.  Remember $147 oil?  Remember $30 oil?  So what?  The Bernanke put and flood of funds is creating instability and wild price swings.  Beyond that, not much can be concluded, yet.

Structural inflation comes from things like exploding health care costs, increases in state and local taxes, and the madness of tuition increases.  These things are very sticky and often work as one way rachets up.  That's inflation.

On other side we have a free fall in real estate and real wages, massive debt destruction, and a surprisingly resilient dollar.  Baldy Ben has done his worst, but the dollar is still the least ugly girl in the bar at closing time.  Go figure.

I think we are sinking rapidly into a depression, but the sure bet is that without massive cuts in government at all levels, the middle class and small business are dead.  Happy Holidays.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:22 | 786303 Desperado
Desperado's picture

"Structural inflation comes from things like exploding health care costs, increases in state and local taxes, and the madness of tuition increases.  These things are very sticky and often work as one way rachets up.  That's inflation."

Be that as it may, isn't hyper-inflation the rise in prices due to the debasement of a currency (deliberate) in order to inflate away an unbearable debt? 

And isn't that the situation we face? 

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:44 | 786383 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I'm a recovering adacemic, and yes, in a closed society (or self contained currency) that's what you would expect, but after 10 years of artificially low rates, it hasn't happened.

This is not all of the answer, but I think the surprise was how many of our problems can be forced onto our trading partners when the dollar is the reserve currency.  Other countries have suffered the contagion of inflation and asset bubbles, moderating what we've seen here.  Add that to the implosion of the Euro and sick demographics in Japan, and that is still only half of an answer, but it begins to explain what we're seeing and how dangerous this course is.  The whole world economy is at risk.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:48 | 785687 StockWorldNews
StockWorldNews's picture

[Censored by Plunge Protection Team]

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:54 | 785617 StockWorldNews
StockWorldNews's picture

I've heard Bernanke is a black belt in jiu jitsu and "taps out" anybody who walks up to him on the street and offers criticism.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:02 | 785660 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Yeah that tremulous voice and quivering lip are a dead giveaway.

 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:42 | 785885 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

It's what going on under his pants that is terrifying. There's a swollen, pendulous member awaiting to find your nearest orifice.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:23 | 786309 akak
akak's picture

Well, he's going to have to at LEAST buy me dinner first --- and throwing me a handful of food stamps is NOT going to cut it!

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:44 | 785567 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I agree that Bernanke has been wrong on multiple fronts before, during, and after the financial crisis.  Many commentators use oil and agricultural commodities as signs that there is inflation.  There is some truth to that thesis yet oil would be expected to bounce from the lows after falling about 75%.  Furthermore prices of agricultural commodities can be adversely influenced by variables such as weather.  For these reasons I believe gold to be a better barometer of inflation or fear of inflation.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 12:23 | 785782 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

A barometer of fear, in general, I think.  But also, gold is benefitting from a complete lack of alternatives.  Do you want to buy bonds, Citi, Chipotle, or emerging markets that somehow never quite emerge?  Lots of cash chasing few sane alternatives.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:38 | 786111 jakethesnake76
jakethesnake76's picture

So what stops a bunch of money from going into gold and hitting a bubble it seems like theres lack of good places to invest which send all this money chasing something new and safe why is that ?is this just a never ending bubble creation  economy ? 

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:30 | 786327 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes it is, until Bernanke is stopped.  Traitor Ben is not feeding investment or innovation.  He's creating hot money.  He's feeding hedge funds, mo-mo day traders, and young investment bankers who've never seen a really nasty bear market.  This will end badly.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 11:37 | 785531 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Bernank (still) has a job because his employers are not the American people. The FED is a private institution serving private interests. Period

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 14:21 | 786289 akak
akak's picture

"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth."

 

-Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Chairman

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:37 | 786108 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Agree 100%.  Bernanke does not care about the American people.  He is a tool of the banksters and corporate oligarchs, and heads up the organization that controls the world's reserve currency for private interests.  He is a traitor for debasing that currency.  If you see his lips move, then he is lying.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:08 | 785995 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Exactly, and when has a central banker ever had to tell the truth?

NEVER -- END THE FED.

Tue, 12/07/2010 - 13:08 | 785993 covert
covert's picture

being wrong is just as good as being right all the time, just speculate against being wrong to profit.

http://covert2.wordpress.com

 

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