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War Council Convened In Damascus Past Friday To Prepare For Israeli Strike, Iran President Expects War "Between Spring And Summer"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Abu Dhabi Media website The National has disclosed some rather disturbing news about peace "prospects" in the middle east. It appears this past Friday saw a war council convene in Damascus, between Syrian president Bashar al Assad, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah to "devise counterattack plans and assign tasks in the event of an Israeli
offensive on one or all parties
, wrote Abdelbari Atwan, the
editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds al Arabi." And more troublingly, "the Iranian president said he expects war to break out somewhere
between spring and summer of this year
. Meanwhile, the Hizbollah chief
vowed to strike the Israeli capital, its airports and power stations if
Israel dared to attack Beirut’s critical infrastructure."Let's recall that Goldman's most recent 2010 and 2011 WTI estimates call for prices to rise to $90 and $110/bbl, respectively.

More from The National:

“The timing of the meeting, the way it was undertaken and the
ensuing press conference that was held at its conclusion, all point to
a strategic coalition being reinforced. This is the build-up of a new
front that will spearhead the confrontation with the US-Israeli
alliance and whichever Arab countries that may, expressly or
implicitly, be affiliated with it.”“Indeed, we are being exposed to a new discourse here, an unprecedented
sense of self-confidence and an unheard-of preparedness for
retaliation.”

What is more troubling for the US is that any potential effort to rekindle a relationship with Iran is now dead and burred, as the new axis seems to involve exclusively Syria.

For its part, the Syrian leadership appears to
have made up its mind to close off the US administration’s “trite and
cheap
” flirtation with Damascus and opted for bolstering its tactical
partnership with Tehran.

Surely this is now just another white swan in a sea of black, which has been duly factored in to various asset prices and what not.

 

 


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Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Flyingtrader
Flyingtrader's picture

WTF?! Are they checking their calendars?  Who schedules a war? 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Investment banks planning their quarterly profits, perhaps?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

Everybody.

The time tables for WWI were so precise that once the order to mobilize had gone out, there was absolutely no way to stop the war from taking place. The trains ran on time and that was that.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Rand Corporation.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 20:25 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

Few observations:

 

  • Jews started the WWII. They even did not dream the price they would pay for it.
  • Regardless how many nukes Israel has, it will take just 1-3 tactical nukes to wipe Israel for good.
  • The WWII got the USA out of the Great Depression. I would not count this time on the similar luck. There are no more 38 millions soviets to pay for it anymore.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 07:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 01:34 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

a somewhat naive comment.

wars are scheduled for all manner of reasons - waxing and waning political fortunes and election cycles (ie israel strongly considered provoking war prior to bush leaving office, unsure how much support obama would offer) - resources, UN deadlines, UN investigations, and the oldest of them all - weather and its effect on ground troops, mobility, effectiveness, supply lines

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

Wtf.... Gold 7k bitches

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Vacca
Vacca's picture

I guess the new "axis of evil" thinks Bernanke is agitating for another World War to get the US out of a depression.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:23 | Link to Comment wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

Remember, the US was energy self sufficient and a major supplier of crude to the allied nations in WW2...

A major disruption in oil supply at a time when much of the west is fighting tooth and nail against deflation will be devastating. Average Joe will likely mistake higher prices in goods and services as inflation, but higher energy prices are deflationary... 

Makes me wonder though because if I was Ahmadinejad, I would not allow this economic crisis to go to waste... There is no better time to kick someone in the guts than when they are down on their knees. Iran would be well aware that if not for this depression they would have been struck already so realistically, they would be stupid not to take advantage... 

This would also be advantageous to China for its future energy needs, every nation would be hurt but none more so than the United States. 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Zombie Investor
Zombie Investor's picture

The U.S. just needs to send Pelosi back over to Damascus and she'll resolve everything.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Have her stay there.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

+1

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Grifter
Grifter's picture

Wow, didn't take long for the Alex Jones crazies to show up...

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I think "AJ crazies" tend to support Israel.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

AJ supports no regime, except Ron Paul, and with a little too much vigor I might add. 

He cited this article on prisonplanet.com

http://www.prisonplanet.com/war-council-convened-in-damascus-past-friday...

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 19:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 07:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

S&P 4000...here we come!

Wed, 03/03/2010 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Oso
Oso's picture

any views on how reliable "the National" is, or what biases they generally introduce...?  Why isnt this the first question anyone asks.... Iran calls for war on a near daily basis, it doesnt mean anything in and of itself.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Can't we a little more specific about the invasion date?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

"Abu Dhabi Media website "

 

I am very sceptical on the prospect of the war down there this year. IN addition the above media source will do everything and anything to switch any attention from their local affairs/looming debt.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:34 | Link to Comment illyia
illyia's picture

World Tribune **

Israel simulation prepares for two-front war with Hamas and Hizbullah

Sunday, February 28, 2010     TEL AVIV — Israel's military has been exercising for the prospect of a multi-front war.   

Officials said the Israel Army has been conducting exercises in preparation for a two-front war. They said the military envisions fighting along the southern Israeli frontier with the Gaza Strip as well as with Lebanon and Syria.

"The exercises enable us to prepare for possible scenarios, improve our readiness and implement lessons," Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said.

On Feb. 25, the military concluded a command exercise that simulated a two-front war with Hamas and Hizbullah. The exercise included a scenario of massive missile and rocket strikes on Israel from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

"Israel has no interest in seeing escalation in the region," Ashkenazi said. "Yet, we closely monitor developments and make sure to maintain a prepared, deterring, and motivated military."

Officials said the military was preparing each of its major elements for a regional war. In the latest exercise, the General Staff tested the response and decisions of senior commanders in such areas as combat, intelligence, logistics and media relations.

"During the exercise, forces were trained in the management of joint combat methods," the military said. "Inter-branch operability procedures amongst air, ground and naval forces were examined under various scenarios. Multi-arena combat management were also tested, with the support of logistics, intelligence, communications and home front coordination, as was communication between the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli government ."

Military intelligence has warned the government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu of the prospect of war in 2010. Officials said the intelligence assessment said Iran could order a war by Hamas and Hizbullah in an effort to divert Western attention from its campaign to halt Teheran's nuclear program.

"A wind of tension is blowing again in the north of the country," chief armored officer Brig. Gen. Agai Yehezkel said. "Despite the fact that the challenge might be more difficult than during Operation Cast Lead [Hamas war], we are prepared for it."

Officials said the next war would require a rapid Israeli ground advance into the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria. They said this would require the integration of air, infantry and armored forces, with support from the navy in coastal operations. Some of these goals were said to have been achieved in the 22-day war with Hamas in 2009.

"The work is comprehensive, systematic and deep, with the ability to see a general picture of headquarters operations, a necessary condition for effective force operations," Defense Minister Ehud Barak said.

** unfamiliar source requires more investigation.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Fritz
Fritz's picture

The U.S. military industrial machine must be giddy.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:51 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
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Israel must be planning on getting the Ark of the Covenant back from Goldman.  Time to short GS?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Too late.  Goldman already has it hooked up to Sigma X and is using it to front-run the Catholic Church.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:59 | Link to Comment hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

LOL.  Priceless.  I love a good conspiracy-laden punchline...

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Excellent!  We needed a good laugh, what with our country heading down the sh..., oh wait, I can say all that again later!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:56 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Did Goldman host the summit?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

gotta use up those weapons so they can buy some more!!! 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

If there is a war israel will pick the start date.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Oh, of course.  Never in world history have we seen 10% interest rates, stagflation, or war in the middle east.  And certainly never within just a couple years of each other.  All that nonsense is up there with the easter bunny in the realm of impossibility.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Going Down
Going Down's picture

 

Admiral Mullen In Israel

 

If a regional confrontation were to break out following a strike on Iran, the US military chief said bluntly, "It would be a big, big, big problem for all of us. I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike."

 

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LC02Ak02.html

 

An Israeli first strike would be an act of suicide. Even "Zionists" are not stupid.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Grifter
Grifter's picture

That's what I don't get.  For 2 years now all I've read is that Israel attack = Strait of Hormuz gets gangbanged by Sunburn missiles & we have $300/barrel oil. 

And, China & Russia probably wouldn't take kindly to watching their energy investments go up in smoke, so we get World War III or whatever. 

I agree with your statement 1000%, Mr./Mrs./Miss Down.  Pure suicide.  And pure lunacy on Israel's part if it's seriously being discussed.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:38 | Link to Comment hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

Israel considers Iran to be a mortal threat.  So Iran+nukes=certain death for Israel, from their perspective.

Israel does not view a first strike as suicide. Israel views a first strike as necessary for the survival of their nation. Thus, an Israeli first-strike is not only likely, it is inevitable.

Further, Israel has fared very well historically against multilateral arab forces. It will probably not be Israel that takes the worst of the fight... my guess would be that the most hostile arab nations will be hit first and hit hardest. Israel is much better equipped militarily than their arab neighbors. Iran's nukes are the equilizer, which is exactly why Israel will strike before this threat can be realized.

Another arab/israeli war is INEVITABLE.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:09 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Inevitable and getting closer, which means we have to stop talking about the "ifs" and prepare for the likely post-fact consequences.

On the other hand, I don't expect a "shock and awe" type of attack. That could be next, though localized, if commandos don't fully succeed in spreading internal (to the Arabs) mayhem first. They don't have to destroy the infrastructure, just enough to paralize with fear (shit, what next?) and entice internal dissent and the tradicional coups.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:18 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

I agree with much of your characterization, but Israel is smart enough to know that even extended strikes might not take out Iran's nuke research at this point.  Unless Iranians are truly incredibly stupid, their research is spread all over the country and buried as deep as they can manage.

What a strike means is Hizzbullah using whatever they have up their sleeves against Israel.  Could be not much, but who knows?

But the bigger problem is (more) direct Iranian involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan against US forces, a full-on seizure in the oil markets, likely blockades in the gulf, and the like.  That will fray our relationship with the Israelis, the Chinese and the Russians to say the least.

And Iran will be back on track with nukes within 10 years if not less.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

"Another arab/israeli war is INEVITABLE"

Also, Iranians aren't Arab.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:01 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Any Israeli strike will involve the U.S. Navy. So the Chinese navy will have to deal with the U.S. Navy.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 23:06 | Link to Comment wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

Yep, and just as going down commented about Admiral Mullens warning of "unintended cosequences", its fair to say that along with a global economic meltdown, China becoming involved is a guaranteed and very dangerous unintended consequence.

China would perceive (and in my opinion, correctly) that an attack upon Iran is a direct attack upon the national interests of China itself.

I think an international strike against Israel's illegal nuclear weopons would do much to ease middle east tensions and to promote non proliferation.

Oh, and lets not forget the often overlooked Pakistan too because lets face it, Iran is a much more stable nation but of course, not much oil to be won there.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

An Israeli first strike would be an act of suicide. Even "Zionists" are not stupid.

How so?  What can Syria, Iran, and Hamas really do?

Israel took out Syria's nuke plant a few years back; Syria couldn't do a thing about it.

Hamas can't do anything but fire rockets that usually miss.  Iran could lose a lot of its military and nuclear capabilities in a hurry with a well-planned Israeli air assault.  Israel's military tech is light years ahead of Iran, Syria, and Hamas.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:24 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

"We'll be in and out of Iraq in a month!  How could those backward-ass nomads possibly make things hard on the old US of A?  What's an 'unintended consequence'?"

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:51 | Link to Comment assembler
assembler's picture

A terrorist regime like Iran, with a nuke on Israel's border, is equally suicide for them. IF it really comes down to that binary choice, a first strike is the better choice. (Of course, the whole world is hoping that is not the endgame here). But consider what your response would be if Al-Qaeda were in control of the government of the country next to yours, and they had sworn to wipe you out, and they were building nuclear weapons...

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 20:36 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

<Even "Zionists" are not stupid.>

NO. Jews are stupid. This is why they are in trouble for the last 2,400 years. They still wonder why people do not like them.

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 07:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:04 | Link to Comment no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

Another war, won't fix our economy!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

True.  But I can't say I'd mind if Israel gave Hamas, Syria, and Iran what they've been asking for for so long.

They would not need the USA's help to take on all three.

It would certainly make the world a better place.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 20:40 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

+100

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:11 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Head fake.

They've got nothing.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:34 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

Agree, from Israel's perspective.  They just have more ineffective missile-lobbing from Lebanon. 

From the US perspective, Iran would have a lot of justification to get heavily involved in Iraq and Afghanistan (moreso than they already are), making us miserable.  And who knows what they would do with their oil supply and with traffic in the Gulf.  Of course, Israel would likely go after their oils operations so that might be a moot point.

As US military has pointed out again and again and again in recent years, a strike on Iran in no way helps us right now, and would not be a friendly gesture from our "friends" in Israel.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:41 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

You use....... too many......  ellipses.........

Natgas is great but it is not........  a silver bullet............

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:46 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It also doesn't meet the political agenda of the current administration.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

When was the last time the US government did the right thing?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:13 | Link to Comment J.B. Books
J.B. Books's picture

Just don't draft my boys.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:14 | Link to Comment truont
truont's picture

If I didn't know better, I'd say this whole Iran-Israel war was planned or something!

But, that would be silly to say...

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:24 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Iran is not stupid and they recently moved certain nuclear facility bits above ground instead of deep inside a mountain. The reasoning is that if they attack said facility the nuclear waste will then spread and contaminate not just Iran, but also other parts of the world including Israel depending on the airstream. This is not to condemn Iran for doing this as it is another factor of how to prepare for war. The Goldstone report tells quite a bit about Israel's tactics and their willingness to break international laws.

Then there are the Mossad terrorists and assassins, which has now lead to UAE not allowing any Israelis into their country or those who look Israeli. Due to Mossad's constant actions, the EU, Britain, Asia, Canada and the USA should put a ban on allowing Israelis from entering the country due to the high risk of spying and secret operations that could very easily lead to more killings.

The USA's House/Senate/Congress should reassess the qualifications of those members who also hold Israel passports. There are many members within the USA government who hold dual allegiance to the USA and Israel and it may make some wonder which side they will take when it matters most.

 

PS: The USA invasion of Iraq began March 20th, which was an interesting day for reasons i'd prefer not to disclose. Could be an interesting time line give or take a week just as some believe in the Mercury retrograde or other things.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Ironically, burying your nuclear facility deep in a mountain makes it EASIER to attack without harming others.  Ever heard of underground nuclear testing?  You detonate a nuke underground and it creates a nice glassy spherical cavern that is pretty well sealed.  Even if you attack the facility with a big conventional bomb, most if not all of the radioactive contamination (UFl6, etc.) would stay buried or at worst be released fairly slowly.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

You mean to say a usa senator or representative can have dual citizenship?

Conflict of interest isnt it? I am surprised that this is legal. Its insane from my point of view.

Do Russians and Chinese have same option or is it just one special country?

America is incredible!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Certain countries consider citizenship as an inalienable right. Even if the US forces you to denounce that citizenship in exchange of becoming an American, the  validity of your earlier citizenship is still intact.

Otherwise, the US has to declare that Dutch, Israeli's, Greeks, Peruvians and many others can never become US citizens. (Unconstitutional) The US even allows you to vote in your ex country's elections. something you could not do 20 years ago.  

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:53 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Well, many senators and others in high ranking US Gov were not born in Israel and do not have Israeli parents yet yes, many of them hold Israel passports/dual citizenship.

If you are in doubt, do some research as it will be very eye opening to many just who holds dual passports and how they tend to vote on certain issues. Also look at how few have dual citizenship to Asia, Canada or other countries by comparison. This is a very serious issue that should be addressed.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

Iran Moves Enriched Uranium Back Underground

The fuel in question is once again underground.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

I think Iran is genuinely concerned about an attack and if I were them I would be too. So they are playing head games on the world stage to attempt to preempt any attack by going on the offensive in the world opinion stage.

That's ridiculous.  If you don't want to get attacked, you keep your head down and avoid attention.  Iran is acting idiotic on the world stage for a very simple reason: the Iranian regime is genuinely stupid.  Any answer beyond that is over-thinking the problem.

Let's face it. One way or another the US is going to find a boogeyman who's people it's going to slaughter. It's the logical next step. We need an enemy to distract us from our domestic misery.

That's ridiculous.  What makes you think Israel needs the USA's help to deal with Iran?  Have you been following Israel's advances in military technology?

If not Iran, then I think it'll be Russia. Just watch.

That's ridiculous.  Russia's nuclear weapons, substantial military, and inability to seriously threaten the US hegemony each individually precludes the idea that the US would ever attack Russia.  Put together, they rule it out entirely.

Seriously.  We didn't get into a fight with Russia during the Cold War.  But you're trying to tell me that now, decades later, with the countries on friendly terms, suddenly NOW a war is going to break out with Russia?

You're just trolling, aren't you?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Seriously.  We didn't get into a fight with Russia during the Cold War.  But you're trying to tell me that now, decades later, with the countries on friendly terms, suddenly NOW a war is going to break out with Russia?

You think that the US and Russia are currently on friendly terms?  I would hate to see what you think hostile terms look like.

Wars happen for two reasons: (1) dumb ones, and (2) greed of special interests who stand to profit.  Arguably the latter is a subset of the former.

Bear in mind that Russia is a rapidly dying country demographically, much like Japan.  It wants to be a superpower but its weapons are rusty and its resources running short.  It may see one last chance for glory, at least the chance to go out with a bang.  The US, in turn, is a massively overstretched "accidental empire" (depending on your POV), which could easily take on one more battle and find that battle to be the straw that breaks its back.  Economic stress + dying empires longing for past glory is a common factor in big bad wars.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

You think that the US and Russia are currently on friendly terms?  I would hate to see what you think hostile terms look like.

Are you kidding?  Putin visited Bush at his ranch back in the day.  Then we let them invade Georgia with a wink and a nod when that country was supposedly our ally.

Yes, there's occasional bluster from Moscow about our missile defense systems, but that's all hot air.

It wants to be a superpower but its weapons are rusty and its resources running short.  It may see one last chance for glory, at least the chance to go out with a bang.

Sheer lunacy.  Absolute, complete, and total lunatic folly.

The Russians aren't like the Iranians.  They're way too smart for that and they don't make desperate gambles with the odds stacked far against them.  If they did, they'd have done it during the Cold War.

Russia has powerful and growing China on its doorstep and nuclear-armed USA across the pond.  It's going to do what it can to economically develop and defend itself but it's not going to pick a fight with any country bigger than Poland.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:56 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+128

No way we will go to war with Russia.  They are getting weak.  But, they are smart too.

+ some more about your comment on Russia's "China Problem".  I do not know why the Russians are not interested in warming up their relations with us, as their obvious threat is losing their Asian holdings to China.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

"If you don't want to get attacked, you keep your head down and avoid attention.  Iran is acting idiotic on the world stage for a very simple reason: the Iranian regime is genuinely stupid."

On the contrary, both Iran and North Korea have been acting very rationally.  In early 2002, the POTUS very publicly put them in an "Axis of Evil" with Iraq.  And within a year, the US attacked the first of the three.  The other two members of the named "Axis" began blustering about their nuclear capabilities immediately.  That was and is aimed at us, and perfectly explainable behavior if you look at the sequence of events.

The greatest fallacy in foreign relations is assuming that your enemy is "stupid" or "crazy" and you can't possibly understand their motivations and actions. There all just humans and you can't understand their movitivations just fine as long as you're not the stupid one.

"Have you been following Israel's advances in military technology?"

Yeah, that would be OUR advances in military technology.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:31 | Link to Comment junkyard dog
junkyard dog's picture

I am not buying any country standing behind Iran during an attack on that country. Syria may be placating Iran and Hizbolla has as much sense as democrats. The attack on Iran will come from the US only; when the US is ready, not when Israel is ready. If Syria would like to loose it's infrastructure all it will need to do is flinch on that fateful moonless night. But I think everyone in Syria will be asleep when Iran burns.

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

It will be interesting to see how US public opinion/support for Israel unfolds after a "preemptive" first-strike...

If Israel fights the battle themselves, with minimal US involvement, then I believe public support for Israel would remain high here in the US.

But if the US military engages and costs+body count become newsworthy, then I believe public support for Israel will plummet here in the US, and the continued involvement of US forces would become a serious political problem.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Israel recently announced the Heron UAV, which can reach the Persian Gulf from Israel.

http://defense-update.com/products/e/eitan-UAV.htm

Pro tip: If a war breaks out in the Middle East involving Israel, don't bet against Israel.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Say good night to whatever prospects the US economy has if oil goes to $90 or higher. 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:49 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Didn't the word used to be that $80/bbl was the point at which long-term damage started to accumulate?  Seeing as it's been sitting around $80/bbl and I at least see long-term damage accumulating, well, I'm not sayin.'  Just sayin.'

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Oil is going past $100; this by the beginning of summer.  Electric cars can't get here soon enough!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Going Down
Going Down's picture

 

Mas Loco: Las Malvinas

 

South Atlantic: Britain May Provoke New Conflict With Argentina

 

http://www.voltairenet.org/article164222.html

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:21 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

 The attack on Iran will begin before the airstrikes.

 You'll know when Iran's fiber goes black

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

Let the Israelis defend themselves. If they wait for the UN and the Europeans to actually put pressure on Iran it will be too late and they know it.

 

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:47 | Link to Comment congoapd
congoapd's picture

This is super annoying if this happens. I'll be in Israel spring through summer. Wish me luck surviving. 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 19:40 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

The world has seen how N. Korea has been left alone since they got their nukes.  Iran's dictators want to stay in power too.  Therefore, Iran has a nuclear weapons program because it would be irrational for them NOT to have one. 

Now that that's settled, what to do about Iran?  Iran definitely uses terrorist orgs as their proxy armies.  Iran definitely threatens their neighbors, and Iran definitely has long-range missles.  This all makes them 100x the threat Iraq ever was.  It's just a matter of time before an Iranian nuke ends up in a shipping container via some smuggling operation.

It would be stupid for the US and/or Israel NOT to attack Iran.  Israel has the capability of doing it themselves, even with all those allies lined up against them.  It would be better if we do it because an in/out commando raid would be quick and easy.  (I'm not talking about a long term occupation like Iraq).

As for the timing... who knows?  This kind of "imminent" war talk has been going on for years.  As for Iran's allies attacking at once -- notice none of them supported hezbollah in any of the recent wars.  They all know Israel can swat them easily, so they won't follow through on their bluster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:44 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

History likes to repeat itself.

"It would be stupid for the US and/or Israel NOT to attack Iran.  Israel has the capability of doing it themselves, even with all those allies lined up against them.  It would be better if we do it because an in/out commando raid would be quick and easy.  (I'm not talking about a long term occupation like Iraq)." WOW. 

Just look at American "successes" in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc., Yes, but let us see as the USA smashed Iraqi army. Well.

Let us have a history tour. Late in June of 1941, Nazi invaded the USSR. In just 2.5 months, Soviet professional army disappeared. More than 4.5 millions Soviet soldiers were either killed or surrendered. By late Sep. 1941, Nazi thought, it was all over for Stalin and his Red army.

On Dec. 5, 1941, Soviet started the huge Moscow counteroffensive. The Blitzkrieg was over. Nazi barely were able to survive but lost its strategic initiative. So, what miracle did happen in just 2 months that changed the world? The answer was very simple but nobody, even today, like to talk about. Well,

- The Red Army was not very good to begin with but, most important, it did not want fight for the Stalin State and his Jewish commissars

- On Nov.7, 1941, Stalin changed the tune: It is not anymore war for the Soviet State. No. It is a war for "Mother Russia". In his famous speech, Stalin said: " Brothers and Sisters, the Great Russian people. Our Motherland is in a grave danger..."

- From this moment on, it became a "total war" with "no step back". It has ended in Berlin.

The bottom line. Dear fellow American, please be careful and do not underestimate your enemies!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 21:50 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

QW

Tue, 03/02/2010 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 02:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 04:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 04:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 08:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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