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The War Over The $1,520 Gold Pin Tomorrow - Part 3 Of "Market Manipulation: A Recipe in Three Parts"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From FMX Connect, which continues its very educational and highly informative series about precious metals price manipulation and interference. Previously: Options Risk, Manipulation, And The May Silver $40 Calls: An FMX Connect Special - Parts 1 And 2

Summary: Right now there is a war in Gold options. It is between the May 1520 longs, who most likely are unhedged, and their short option counterparts, who most likely are hedged. One would think the longs intend to sell futures at some point, perhaps 1520, perhaps 1540 we do not know. It is also possible that they intend to take delivery, but that is unknowable for the moment. The shorts are probably delta hedgers and have no desire to see this market go above 1520, much less move at all.

Full report:

Overview

Price Manipulation and its cousin
“mismarked books” are as much a product of systemic dysfunction as they
are of unethical individual behavior. The 3 part series we have planned
is educational in nature and aims to outline those system-wide
imperfections at the highest level. For today we must focus on what is
shaping up to be a rare opportunity to watch a pitched battle between
major players in Gold. In short, we are interrupting your regularly
scheduled program.

Current Events: The Potential Pin in Gold Options Tommorow

Right
now there is a war in Gold options. It is between the May 1520 longs,
who most likely are unhedged, and their short option counterparts, who
most likely are hedged. One would think the longs intend to sell futures
at some point, perhaps 1520, perhaps 1540 we do not know. It is also
possible that they intend to take delivery, but that is unknowable for
the moment. The shorts are probably delta hedgers and have no desire to
see this market go above 1520, much less move at all.

The Players

  • The Longs-
    have accumulated over 5,000 lots in a two week period and we would
    assume they are bullish. They are patient dip buyers and seem to have
    little fear of the Bullion Banks that are often accused of manipulating
    PM prices lower or keeping prices range bound at expiration.

 

  • The Shorts-
    are Bullion Banks, market-making firms, locals and possibly some hedge
    funds. There is no collusion implied here. In fact, these firms are
    usually at odds with each other in terms of option open interest. The
    majority of the shorts trade options from a non-directional point of
    view. That is, they are professionals who, when short an option do not
    want the market to move either way. Conversely, when they are long an
    option, they want the market to move quickly through or away from the
    strike they own.

The Play
We
feel the Longs were betting that once the gravitational pull of the
$1500 strike was broken, that the market would move quite easily to the
strike with the next largest open interest, the $1520 strike. They may
be privy to large order flow in futures, they may have large futures
order flow, or they may simply be speculating with nothing other than
their wallets and the ability to read market behavior through price
action. They can spot a market that is lopsided in one direction when
they see it.

Snapshot: May Gold Open Interest

product

contract

type

strike

volume

open interest

OG

May-11

C

1480

598

2303

OG

May-11

P

1480

368

675

OG

May-11

P

1485

271

341

OG

May-11

C

1485

11

666

OG

May-11

C

1490

5

970

OG

May-11

P

1490

379

416

OG

May-11

P

1495

86

280

OG

May-11

C

1495

35

361

OG

May-11

C

1500

211

6762

OG

May-11

P

1500

445

522

OG

May-11

P

1505

17

333

OG

May-11

C

1505

76

306

OG

May-11

C

1510

507

1731

OG

May-11

P

1510

344

116

OG

May-11

C

1515

116

1374

OG

May-11

C

1520

580

5823

OG

May-11

C

1525

143

747

OG

May-11

C

1530

128

578

OG

May-11

C

1535

95

289

OG

May-11

C

1540

9

730

OG

May-11

C

1550

40

1570

OG

May-11

C

1600

26

1515


The Next 48 Hours
We have alerted the reader to this possibility for the past week. All that remains is this:

Today the LME is closed
This
deprives the market of a deep source of liquidity. While the LME
Players are surely watching and trading today, we suspect the “A’ teams
may not be, however, as holiday continues for many and trading at 9PM
London time is not very fun if you are an MD at a large Bank. Also
remember there was no LME fix today, which has an effect on balance
sheets for London firms. No London Fix, no Balance Sheet Axe, so to
speak.

Tomorrow Comex Options Expire

If
the Option Longs are right, then the market will be propelled through
the 1520 strike. Futures should receive additional support at some point
from the negative gamma hedging of those non-directional players who
MUST adjust their delta hedges.  The longs are playing for a longer time
line than the shorts in this instance.

If
the Option Shorts win this battle then we will pin the strike.
Remember, a violent sell-off is not good for the shorts either. A pin
means the options go out worthless theoretically, and the future hedges
that longs carried against those shorts can be liquidated for a profit.

Let’s
assume next that the Options Shorts “win” this battle and through hope,
prayer, or their own attempts to keep the market in a range, the $1520
strike is Pinned or near-Pinned on the closing bell at 1:30 PM ET
tomorrow.

The Pin
If
a Pin occurs, the longs have another two and a half hours to decide if
they wish to abandon or exercise their calls. They own the optionality
at the strike. The option shorts can still lose a lot of money, even if
the option longs make none. A sell-off is very possible, wherein the
option longs abandon their calls, but the option shorts still have
hedges to unwind. The Shorts would be forced to use statistical methods
to determine if they will get exercised or not. More than likely this is
a digital event, and statistics do not matter when most of the
contracts are in the hands of a single player or a group of like minded
players, as may be the case here. We are likely looking at an
all-or-none exercise if we pin the strike. The shorts would be in the
dark.


Manipulation in the Commodities Market
A
multitude of individuals and firms have been accused of market
manipulation, over the years. Many individual traders have been brought
to task for their actions. The Hunt Brothers attempt to corner Silver,
Yasuo Hamanaka of Sumitomo for his copper manipulation in 1995, by,
various “rogue’ traders and brokers and most recently, the CFTCs
successfully prosecuted of a case involving Brian Hunter of Amaranth for
his actions in the natural gas market. Nonetheless, very few firms have
suffered commensurately.

Business as Usual
Firms
that have been successfully prosecuted continue to operate in the
markets they have manipulated, usually with monetary wrist slaps. To be
fair, major firms settle disputes all the time, but the fines are not
proportional to their balance sheets when compared to the individual
fines; nor are the firms’ abilities to go back to business-as-usual in
the market place affected.

It’s Baked in the System
We
believe manipulation is a product of many things, and attempt here to
boil them down to three broad categories. First, the U.S. Government’s
accounting and regulatory policies unintentionally enable these events
to occur. Second, the rights accorded corporations give them the ability
to mandate profits above all else, all the while getting the same
privileges an individual person does. Companies have no social contract
and their goal is to continue to exist, a combination easily misused.
Finally, market structure, especially in commodities lends itself to a
tail wags the dog situation wherein the transparent pricing mechanism
for settling contracts is not where most of those contracts actually
trade. This results in a disconnect between liquidity and price that can
lead towards “managed market” abuses.

We
intend over the next week or so to outline at the highest levels how
government policies, corporate mandates, and market structure contribute
to the moral hazards in derivative markets.


For today and tomorrow, we will just be watching the Precious Metals markets like we suspect many of you will. Good Luck.

Read full report below (PDF)

Market Manipulation Part 3

 

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Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:23 | 1203336 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Silver peaked, Bitchez.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:22 | 1203341 mikhail kalashnikov
mikhail kalashnikov's picture

in soviet russia, silver peaks YOU!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:28 | 1203368 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

I finally got the opportunity to close out my SLV position! Yes, i've had it for so long, i didn't even know how terrible an idea it was when i bought it. THAT long ago. The last months haven't even given me the ability to justify selling.

Anybody use SIVR? How is it's prospectus? I really don't want to buy PSLV b/c of the insane premium it runs. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:02 | 1203514 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

The premium is there for a reason... PSLV has it's silver. It's in one of the few stable countries that speak english too.  You can go with the swiss silver ETF, and the Franc looks fairly good, but can you drive there and pick it up?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:57 | 1204327 rocker
rocker's picture

Is this the same butt head who told Tyler he called the top last night?  LOL

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 00:59 | 1206696 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

You might have me confused with The Ponz. I certainly didn't insult Mr. Durden.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:06 | 1203530 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Swiss vaults. Should be "safer" than SLV.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:32 | 1203641 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

If you trust the mob d.b.a. "The Canadian government," CEF is a way to get exposure to both silver and gold.

For all I know though, it's full of tungsten and lead. Caveat Emptor!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:46 | 1203695 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

yeah. unfortunately we have to play "sight unseen" in 401ks or IRAs. i cant hold physical in these things so i have to take somebodys word for it. right now i am in CEF and thinking if i want to add more silver exposure then i may buy SIVR. for all i know theyre as shady as SLV, who knows. sucks to be an investor. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:52 | 1204317 Frein
Frein's picture

Yes, it does suck. Personally, I sold my PSLV because of the gargantuan premium and bought into SIVR. It seemed safe enough (though you can never be 100% sure) while the PSLV premium seems like a bomb just waiting to go off. Of course, after underperforming against SIVR for about a week, the PSLV premium then actually increased rapidly while PSLV outperformed the underlying metal many days in a row.

I just don't understand this market any more. It's all weird and perils are everywhere. The mining and streaming stocks take a beating day after day while the metals they deal in skyrocket in price, too. I'm completely confused.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:43 | 1204620 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Not sure how much different SIVR really is from SLV.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-dBQd16cvg&feature=channel_video_title

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:59 | 1204701 Frein
Frein's picture

SIVR uses allocated vaults, so it's not quite the same as SLV.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:38 | 1204582 reTARD
reTARD's picture

The problem with SIVR is that it is under the custodian and trustee of HSBC and Bank of New York Mellon. FYI, the vault location is in London.

And just like SGOL which is under the custodian and trustee of JPMorgue and Bank of New York Mellon. This vault is actually in Zurich.

I do not trust this banking cartel of JPMorgue/HSBC.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:15 | 1204067 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

i for one don't trust the Canada mob...thoughts on the KeystoneXL pipeline and importing more tar oil sands from those bastards?

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 16:10 | 1205004 Smu the Wonderhorse
Smu the Wonderhorse's picture

I use SIVR and AGQ for trading in addition to physical possession.  I am not going to pay any premium for PSLV, I'll just keep the silver at home, thank you very much.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:33 | 1203386 Temporis
Temporis's picture

No silver is going on sale.

Thank god.

I wanted to buy a shit load more before it jumped like it did.

 

SILVER FOR LIFE BITCH

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35 | 1203395 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You'll have a dip buying opportunity for the next six weeks as this pig gets roasted.

Where are Aka and Tmosely?  The idiots who kept pumping this thing and said I was stupid for buying puts?  I'm up over 10% against my cost basis.  What have the idiots got to say now?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:48 | 1203461 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

funny old thing, someone else telling me to sell what's going up...

Better to sell your shorts than lose your shirt...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:48 | 1203463 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

We're barely below where we closed on Thursday.  I wouldn't go counting your chickens quite yet.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:40 | 1203666 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Unfotunately this recent move to 49.87 on my spot ticker was driven by illiquidity. Just goes to Shows you even the safest of investments is subject to market manipulation.

Ag bounced off support at 45.61. But I watched the action on the way up at 45.61 it's tenuous support at best. Longs have about 48 hours to get out if your a paper trader and well the guns and ammo silver holders you will never get out until you you have used your last bullet to stave off the angry mob that is coming for your silver so they can pay their Netflix bill.

48 hours until the man you hate so much kicks you all in the nuts.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:44 | 1203681 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

but it's going up again now...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:28 | 1203821 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Yes it is and it's hovering right around 47.50 an options  strike price. This holiday has been a feast for the options players with the illiquidity they can drive the market one way or the other with a small amount of money and profit on the options.

The real action will come Wed.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:13 | 1204043 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Let's just put a timestamp on that one.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:53 | 1203483 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

You are truly pathetic.  Go back to your momma's basement.  Recess is over

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:01 | 1203491 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I'm up 300%

 

and I'm pretty sure you or your other alias was telling us to sell silver at $30

 

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:56 | 1203496 Creed
Creed's picture

silver spiked $2.54 last I checked 7 hours ago

 

now it's down .60 cents

 

Dangertime you're starting to sound like a hysterical troll & you're going to lose any support you may have had here from fair minded individuals like myself

One of the hallmarks of a hysterical troll is popping in as soon as pm's take a small hit and yelling FIRE!

Most people on this site are well aware of silvers volatile history and have no need of your bullshit warnings.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:09 | 1203759 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Silver isn't down. It's at 47,72$

Oké it whobbled a bit because "somebody" tried to manipulate it down today and it didn't work again, but that's no reason to sweat.

I bet they hoped to bring it down 20% and they failed. They just made sure more speculators where able to buy it below opening price. A JPM donation to the people so to speak.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:10 | 1203765 55 men
55 men's picture

Damn straight!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:10 | 1203546 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I declared last week i had bought some puts as well (May and Julys) and, despite it being more of a hedge than anything, since i closed out any silver longs i had im now just hoping for a drop.

If it doesnt come thats fine, but the frothy action overnight was too stupid to justify sustained $48+ levels.

Would not be surprised to see a correction to high $30s.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:39 | 1203756 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

And I wouldn`t be surprised to see you type the same thing over and over again at every retracement. Go long ZSl if you`re so sure. Saxxon might have some sage warnings which you might be wise to heed on that one though.

@Dangertime: Whoops. Ag 47.79 US bitz and bytes

Bonne Chance!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:52 | 1204295 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Might very well be wrong, have no problem admitting this. Learn from mistakes, you know. Speaking of retracements, there have literally been none on the daily silver chart for the past 2 weeks, which is why going short here is potentially less risky than long. But, a bull market is a bull market.

ZSL is shit in it's declining trend, keep it overnight you'd lose on the daily re-balancing. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:04 | 1206328 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Highlights in yellow? Pick on me!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:06 | 1206332 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey blind eye? Draw me a trendline on an hourly usd/jpy chart! You know the news > RIGHT!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:06 | 1208439 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Apr.26,2011

Headfake.

Too many dykes, not enough thumbs (and I mean that in a purely non homophobic kinda way). There I was thinking these guys were 'all thumbs' too. Ah well, live and learn.

Op-Ex mantra for me and mine: C-U-Next-Tuesday, 'what a cunning stunning stunt`, or Op portunity Ex travaganza.

Update Apr.27,2011

This is where you say,
"I gotta hand it to you Goin'..."

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:33 | 1203840 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you want to know what the idiots have to say, I would suggest you record your own voice and play it back.

I call BS on your being up over 10%.  We're still above where we were on Friday's close.  Only went down to $46.

Face it, moron, you are a loser, and any gains you had have evaporated like a fart in the wind.  I, on the other hand, am up hundreds of percent.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:14 | 1204057 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I bought physical at $16.80, I'm up over 200% over my costs. If this is being an idiot then idiocy is bliss. Incidentally I may sell some because I think we are going to have a correction with the FED's little meeting on Wednesday. I don't think it will be anything earth shaking, just enough to shake out somw weak hands. Then I'll be right there to BTFD.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:51 | 1203471 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Only Chuck Norris can peak silver.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:59 | 1203506 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

+10

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:35 | 1204201 Michael
Michael's picture

There's no more physical silver on the store shelves to buy at any price.

Do your best to get your hands on physical silver at whatever price you can.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 17:52 | 1205425 Banjo
Banjo's picture

If people buying real physical silver believe the silver story. My suggestion is NOT to play the markets but continue to accumulate real physical silver just more slowly eg. buy 10-20oz per month instead of 40 or 60.

If silver takes a big hit say back to mid 30's Im going to take a big "physical"  bite of physical courtesy of some interest free credit card somewhere and pay that back over time.

Good luck everyone.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:26 | 1204530 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Silver, bitchez.

I'm fucked because I'm the Ben Bernank and the SLA is kicking my arse.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:29 | 1204532 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Silver, bitchez.

I'm fucked because I'm the Ben Bernank and the SLA is kicking my arse.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:48 | 1204648 eisley79
eisley79's picture

new report from Dangertime's mom's basement.

 

pizza inventory at all time low... imaginary losses mounting... need for new alias rising

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:25 | 1203344 DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

Silver - This is just a retail shake out.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:31 | 1203379 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

ya got that one right. waiting till the dust settles and going to load my little boat with GPL and FVITF.....as well as some silver futures.....bite me blythe.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:46 | 1203448 CH1
CH1's picture

Cue the Pure Prarie League:

Jamie, whatcha gonna do,

I think Blythe can stay with you,

for a while or at least for one more move...

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:59 | 1203507 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

GPL needs a swift kick in the ass...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:34 | 1203640 MonkeySmoke
MonkeySmoke's picture

sold out of GPL and replaced with FVGCF; which received a swift kick from Sprott.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:25 | 1203349 trav7777
trav7777's picture

let them fight over it with the paper...shit goes up, shit goes down, whatever

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:37 | 1203409 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

deep

thanks for the insight

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:04 | 1205930 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Guido Fawkes?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:23 | 1203351 Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Didn't peak Dangertime.  The Morgue covered in asia like crazy to bid it up and then fresh shorted to make a gap in the technicals to scare the quants.  That's a desperation move that will blow up in their faces.  They have created a perfect buying opportunity that they will live to regret.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35 | 1203384 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Forgiven, the peak is in for this run.  We will see $50 again but not likely for another year.  You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:48 | 1203450 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I think you better go back to Yahoo. The crowd here is a little more economically savy than your used to posting with.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:51 | 1203470 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I would have thought the Beano more suitable for this kind of advice...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:51 | 1203473 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

In six weeks your post will look like such a noob call.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:55 | 1203490 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

You seem a little too desperate to get people out of silver. What gives?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:21 | 1203804 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

He's just desperate for an ego stroke... nothing to contribute, and a complete waste... and I guarantee he's playing with nickels and dimes.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:28 | 1203829 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

or more likely he's playing with something in his 'shorts'...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:57 | 1203497 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Next year?  Hahaha, what a boob.  I will be here in a week when we break through 50.  Where will you be?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:46 | 1203455 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I would start gloating danger till wednesday or even the end of the week. We are just right back to where we were on the US close on Friday. Besides that with China aunouncing the dumping of US assets we will see $50 dollars by the end of this summer.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:19 | 1203592 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Caution : China has just launched a significant monetary balloon. Doesn't mean it will send the Balloon herd all up at once. It wants no QE...not the USD's immediate death!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:54 | 1203480 Mr. Q
Mr. Q's picture

totally agree.

 

the very fact that people here are going agressive about any top indications is sign enough.

matter of fact the market does not care too much about fundamentals or what your perceiption of them is.

it just moves in and out of equillibrium; right now it is pretty much far away from anything sustainable.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:36 | 1203853 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Will you commit ritual suicide for us on web cam when it's back over $50 before May 6th?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:30 | 1204155 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Wait til the bubble really bursts......this is just the opening salvo.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:49 | 1204278 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm quakin' in my boots.

As if we haven't heard such bravado from the gold and silver trolls a hundred times before.

Face it, you're a knife catching fool who is about to go bankrupt.  I say that with the full force of my accumulated credibility from constantly being right on pretty much everything for YEARS.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:00 | 1206313 eisley79
eisley79's picture

why do you even acknowledge the kid by pretending he has anything but is e-pein invested in silver?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:39 | 1203868 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

"that will blow up in their faces"

Speaking about the Morgue, sure, but what about Blythe and her minions?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk#

BTW price action today and that video close to 100%. nice #Oracle

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:30 | 1203364 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks to me like a massive rotation out of commodity ETF's and into bank stocks and tech stocks.  My previous employer CVBF is up 4%, SNDK gapped down this morning went straight up off the open even though the SPY is getting the beat down.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:31 | 1203378 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Gold probably topped. Now we need a retracement
RobotTrader - Wed, Apr 20, 2011 - 01:14 PM

Howling over at Zero Hedge reached hysteria levels, rivaling Madison Square Garden during the NBA playoffs.

I fear many of those guys are going to get decimated.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:02 | 1203477 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

have you been drinking?...

Sounds like complete bollocks to me...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:32 | 1203374 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Where are Aka and Tmosely?

Oh the pain they must be feeling.  My puts are mightily green today!  Woot!  Wait til this pig breaks below $40.....

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:33 | 1203385 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Sitting back and waiting for the Asians to buy the fucking dip.   Considering most of our buy points were well before 35 .... it's got room to drop. 

In the meantime has the United States solved the root causes of the issues facing our economy?   No.  

TPTB are still engaged in a controlled demolition of the American economy.   So BTFD; Asia will.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:39 | 1203408 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

If Asia buys this dip they are morons.....and it will not prop up this pig.

Silver to low $30's over the next six weeks.  The real pain is still yet to come!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:48 | 1203462 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

it must be terrible to be short when the market is going against you.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:54 | 1203485 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

How can you be short 'money'?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:38 | 1203659 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

By being long anthing it buys.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:45 | 1203700 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so what's going up in terms of gold and silver?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:29 | 1203631 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

for all those who have a few spare dohlars I hope you are right because it will be reload time.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:44 | 1206437 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Did you buy the fucking dip, man?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:38 | 1203417 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Ummm if I remember right your still in the red. 37,40 Here is a Knife. Please put a trashbag on the floor first.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:44 | 1203445 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Not even close bud.  I've been scaling in and got some more on the gap up this morning.  Now it's nothing but a green ride to the 30's.

But of course, now you will not believe me even tho I've said I've been doubling down every day for the last five business days.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:51 | 1203465 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

wow, you're going to get blow torched my friend.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:39 | 1203869 tmosley
tmosley's picture

GOING to?  He already has been.  He's being forced to double or triple down on every spike in order to stay in the black.  But the black keeps turning red.  Meanwhile, tmosley is considering changing his name to tmoney.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:52 | 1204281 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Aren't you the deceptive one?

I have doubled down only because of the inevitable turn that has already started.  You should change your name to tbroke, because all of your money is being transferred to me.

I am currently 4k in the green, which is unfortunate because it was 20k this morning.  But oh well, the puts will go back up as the next several weeks progress.

The sad thing is that you do not even know that the tide has turned against you.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:51 | 1204308 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You keep saying that, but it isn't true.  My cost average is just shy of $16.

Just because something doesn't go up every day (which it has been doing), doesn't mean it is "turning".

Christ, you are like a tower of incompetence.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:56 | 1203495 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

If the martingale strategy worked there would be no casinos.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:59 | 1203505 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

wow, genius. Problem is no way to prove it other than what you say, which could be anything...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:00 | 1204339 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Dupe post.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:56 | 1204342 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You are right, no way to prove anything.  All we have to go on is my call when silver was about $40 that it was forming a top and I was scaling into my puts.

Since then I've been buying them pretty much every day.  But if people can't see reality after SLV hits the 30's, then what do I care.  The haters can deny it and attack me, but they will know the truth of who was right.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:26 | 1204511 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Indeud we will; which may not be as glorious for you as you seem to think.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:37 | 1204588 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'but they will know the truth of who was right'

and how will we know that?

Your claimed results are no more reliable than Bernie Madoff...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:06 | 1206329 eisley79
eisley79's picture

sure there is, i already challenged you on the other thread.  Take a picture, with the object of my choosing, "a red pen", showing whatever  computer screen or paper proof you have of your so called investments, and then spray paint out the personal info if any is showing.  Upload to any one of a billion free picture hosts, and send the link.

 

you talk a lot of shat from your mom's basement, back it up son

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:07 | 1203531 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I don't believe you either. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:32 | 1203636 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

you won't be the first here to disappear in shame

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:45 | 1203702 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

DangerT....

 

all i can say is...FUCKTARD!!!

 

you can sign your porsche over to me when you go broke. i'll buy it for 3 pieces of silver... haha

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:19 | 1203794 nmewn
nmewn's picture

LOL...covering so soon?...what happened to the "green ride to the 30's?"

"I've been scaling in and got some more on the gap up this morning."

Got some more of what...exactly? ;-)

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:53 | 1204323 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

No way am I covering yet.....

Got some more puts at the open, 33, 37's and 40's for October.

It will still be a green ride to the 30's.  This is just the first green....

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:21 | 1203800 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Your name is apt.  Good luck.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:35 | 1203859 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What the fuck are you talking about?  You are a god damned idiot, you know that?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:32 | 1203375 6 String
6 String's picture

Total manipulation. Think about it: all the PD's and trading desks went on vacation Friday. What happens? No manipulation in the silver markets....so silver skies.

Sunday night: ditto.

Monday, Primary Dealers come back to tradings desks and poof: silver gets slammed and margin hikes on desperation phone calls from Blythe and Jamie.

This is so fucking corrupt that it is laughable now. These scumbags are fighting for the Ponzi tooth and nail...

All as can be expected.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:39 | 1203399 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Play alongside the Morgue when it is necessary. They have the secret phone lines to the CTFC and you do not.  They have unlimited fiat, and you do not.  There are two sides to the silver coin.  Trade the paper, do not hold onto it.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:42 | 1203429 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

And based on the Western banking systems' manipulations, freezes and outright thefts of wealth from those who are not the darlings of the US Government (aka Qaddafi, Mubarak, etc), I will continue operate on ONE rule.

If you don't HOLD it, you don't OWN it.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:23 | 1203615 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You can hold it and it can belong to others...happens all the time in the back rooms and in the parks at night. Such a sad sight, I never jog at night anymore.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:30 | 1203376 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

yesterday? today? tomorrow? next-48 hours?

For cryin' out loud, put a fucking date in the document.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:01 | 1203736 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

For all you investment noobs out their the move up and down from after the NY spot close on Thursday probably through NY close today is driven by no liquidity in the market because first NY and LME were out on Friday when the Asians jacked it up and brought right back down. Today London is out again - no liquidity.

Tomorrow is options expiration day and it looks like the action will be around either the 47.50 or 45 strike price. Its looking like 47.50 right now.

The real action down starts after your buddy the Chairsatan kicks you all in the nuts on Wed. 

All technical indicators point to a major inflection point in the risk assets is at hand. It's funny how the technical indicators predict the events I have been investing for 30 years and it still it amazaes me when it happens. The MSM will come up with a reason why but it's the technicals my friends and the amount of money in the monetray base which is about to be reduced.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:12 | 1203781 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It opened at 47.90. It's at 47.80 right now.

You just don't get it. They are going to just keep coming and coming. They are going to get in. And nobodies going to stay frosty. There will be terror. There will be explosive loss of faith. You just don't betray people and expect them to fucking take it.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:22 | 1203807 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Well, not forever anyway.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:06 | 1206340 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You are 1/2 of the Oxymoron!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:07 | 1208487 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Heh, I'm not greedy, and you have earned the lion's share of that one; the last 5/8's.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 22:09 | 1206341 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You are 1/2 of the Oxymoron!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:30 | 1203835 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Hey NY centric retard silver trades around the globe 23 hours and 45 minutes a day go to Kitco.com and join the restof the world that trades silver. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:57 | 1204330 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hilarious how the moron who has been around for all of 5 weeks has the balls to call everyone else "noobs".

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:33 | 1203377 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Wow, now this is a fucking RAID; 48.37 - 46.12 in 3 hours. .   If that's not evidence of blatant manipulation I don't know what is.  

I can deal with 4 steps forward and 2 steps back advancement. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:41 | 1203420 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I feel reassured by the drop. This is what always happens, it flies, then gets monkey hammered. Isn't options expirations Tuesday?

I am in a crisis situation right now, so I need my cash, but man if I could, I'd BTFD.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:01 | 1203512 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Yes. As long as gold and silver are capable of dropping the game continues.

When it no longer drops is when the game is over and things are settled violently.

Don't feel too reassured. I don't think there's too much gas in the tank. Hope you and your husband find a safe place to stay pretty soon.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:22 | 1203612 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I posted a little about my situation in the "new housing" comments section. I really do feel exposed. There is no where to put your "things." Can't buy something I see on sale for the bunker, there is no bunker. Hotel living sucks. Waiting for the adjuster to tell us "what is what" is running up a lot of bills. No one will give me a lease if I don't know how long I need it for. Sucks but we are safe and healthy and that is what matters. Nice to see you round the threads this morning. Normal things are reassuring, like PMs dropping before options expiry.  ;-)

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:54 | 1203722 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

My house got smashed by a tornado in NC a week ago.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:25 | 1203817 55 men
55 men's picture

Sorry to hear that, hope everything works out. That can't be easy.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:17 | 1204059 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hope you were not in it when it happened. Very sorry for you, I know fairly exactly what you are and will be going through. Keep us posted. I am waiting for the adjuster, and waiting....

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:24 | 1203609 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Sorry to hear that Ms.C I'm sure the situation is nothing you can't handle, but good luck anyway.

Regards

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:25 | 1203614 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Thanks! ;-)

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:27 | 1203626 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Ever tried buying/renting a mobile home? Could get some good bargains awaiting resolution.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 20:14 | 1205977 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Tornado magnet.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:43 | 1203887 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

just back from "new housing" thread.

i understand some of the discomforts you must be feeling, and i sure hope the insurance works out well, pretty soon!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:24 | 1203809 55 men
55 men's picture

Me too... I wanted to buy that dip but need to hold on to my cash right now. I have felt that 43.50 was where it was headed before another upswing. But not sure anymore, 46.12 might have been the low.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:56 | 1203493 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Gold and Silver have exactly the same price action pattern today.


Manipulation bitchez

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:36 | 1203388 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Looks like the shorts--the banks--have more fire power to win this bloody battle.  Would not want to be holding those calls till close today.  

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:52 | 1203396 squexx
squexx's picture

Fucking crooked bastards! Kill every cocksucker on Wall St!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:37 | 1203651 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Then all the cocks would go hungry living... on self inflicted hand-jobs...! What a situation for pinstriped melons strutting to work in their Bentleys! Soon it'll be green stamps rations...and we'll be WS aka 1929...Shut all those windows!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:36 | 1203405 bobby02
bobby02's picture

Interesting analysis. Until the author got "baked" at the end of page 3.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:40 | 1203665 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

now that you mention it. lol

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:36 | 1203407 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Physical price from my supplier 50 per oz for bars. Ebay eagle price $57 Paper price 45and change. LOL 5-12 dollar spreads from reality. Ill bet every bank in Hong Kong and Australia can't wait until tonight. Our Mkts are such a complete farce, Roll over your little Option till next month maggots then Open the window and Jump scum. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:23 | 1203805 KinorSensase
KinorSensase's picture

fer real.

as SilverRhino said, if you don't hold it you don't own it.  so much manipulation in the paper market...holding physical is a hedge against an entire system built on fraud.  i could give less than a fuck about all this short-term talk of fake paper wealth, subject to the whims of sociopathic bankers and inside players.

oil is peaked, the bubble of the thieving, worthless fiat era is ending, and our economies are reverting to some new sort of balance between 300 years endless growth economics and the more realistic models of logistic growth that actually govern organic systems (including economies).

it's so obvious that it boggles the mind that so many still buy into the illusion of the current economic paradigms.  then again, they're called Sheeple for a reason.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:41 | 1203416 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

A question for the technicians: At what point on the DXY does the dollar become a route?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:06 | 1203535 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

June 2001

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:54 | 1203419 fuu
fuu's picture

London was closed today right? No one buying/selling through the London exchanges?

 

Then I guess i will take my dip, get some more loaded up, and wait for the first 24 hours of fully open markets tomorrow.

 

Thanks for the sale guys, nothing like 10% off!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:39 | 1203423 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Upside speculation is rising. We are going from one greater fool trend to the other. When everyone follows moving averages, and other indicators to the n-th degree, and follow similar trend analysis - watch out. Downside will be so quick and fierce that it will take your breath away. Remember the freak 1000 point down afternoon some months back? And that was a fake, so they say. Wait until it is in earnest.

Life is fun. Make money, and enjoy the good sport.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:08 | 1203548 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and are you trying to convince us that you make money?

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:49 | 1203443 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:54 | 1203451 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Some of us advised that you need to be cautious. The pumpers want you all in, the dumpers want you all out.

You were advised to understand your tolerances for risk. Some of you spent the weekend partying instead of doing your charts.

Some of you saw stars this morning and bought the rise.

Some of you are crying right now. Learn to get your emotions out of the trade people. I sold my paper PM's Friday.My physical is never sold. (Well not until gold/silver hits a $ target I have, then I'll sell the rise until all I have is my core position) Yes I even have tradeable precious. You would be well advised to the same becuase at some point this BULL WILL DIE!

1500 needs to be tested and it will be as well as 44-45 for silver. Whatver that magic number is - it will be tested. Learn the heartbeats of the Precious and you'll see how the machine world trades them. Yes the MATRIX is alive and well.

There's a wonderful saying we use in my family.

"A failure to plan is a plan to fail" - 200 years and counting

Be prepared people or you'll be the jumper or food for the machineworld

Peace

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:04 | 1203528 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Thank You Rothschild Family Member

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:11 | 1203550 Temporis
Temporis's picture

You know, I was just thinking the same thing.

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:39 | 1203653 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

No actually I'm from a landowner family in Canada, while your parents were working at Walmart we were building shit so people could work. I hear Walmart is hiring, when you sell your 3 ounces of silver both of you, maybe you'll have enough money to catch a bus to the hiring centre

Next.........

BTW

anyone interested in Bob Moriority's at 321gold.com's latest silver comment,

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html

Dis all you want but when I was buying silver at 7 bucks where were you? Oh yeah right, you had a million shares of pets.com. You can choose to listen or you can be a fish, I could care less. Besides, I need someone on the other side of my trade.

 

You fit the bill nicely, have a nice leap

 

right.....

 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:41 | 1203671 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"Dis all you want but when I was buying silver at 7 bucks where were you? Oh yeah right, you had a million shares of pets.com."

Oops. Somebody dropped a tell.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:35 | 1203849 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

+ 49.87 the top.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 16:52 | 1205209 Robslob
Robslob's picture

while my parents were working at Walmart...

 

There...fixed it for you...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:38 | 1203656 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh you played us like fools. You are such a master. There's like this big trader thing going  on where people are trading and there's like trader winners and trader losers.

We got our fucking gold and silver and we are not letting it go. Capice fuckcunt sociopath.

What you did was sell more naked shorts to drive the price down.

You have to replace your smaller promises with bigger promises. And you're credibility problem is getting bigger and bigger and meaner and bigger wider. And you're little information technology revolution has created more distrust and nasty little poking around people.

And even worse. 67 percent of your computers fail security audits. Your dollar is a unsecured untrusted piece of shit. And you're rolling out technology that you think is safe but isn't. It will start randomly causing problems and exposing everything.

I was once given advice- Find good people and use them.

My return advice- Find bad people and make them really really really not want to be around you.

Oh and you're plan. It's not working.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:19 | 1204034 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

actually, Heph, mogul rider isn't letting his (?) PMs go, either.  and, his "outline of trading" is standard commodity/commersh trader strategy to sell into rallies and BTFD's, as i understand. selling into this last two weeks, perhaps we can understand why he's flown the coop, here, a bit, too!

i get your drift.  if we imagine him with 14,000 acres of wheat, dotted with oil wells, paul bunyan is just an eyeroll away.

 

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