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War Of The R'n'R Pundits: The Rogers-Roubini Conflict Escalates; Will Gold Hit $2,000?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Earlier today Jim Rogers took a stab at Roubini saying that the NYU professor is wrong "about the threat of bubbles in gold and
emerging-market stocks." In addition to claiming that commodities are still down and the equity markets are firing on all cylinders, Rogers added that the price of gold will double to $2,000 an ounce in the next decade. As a reminder, lately Roubini has been warning about the threats of the biggest every carry trade being established: that of shorting the dollar. Rogers seems to disagree: “What bubble?” Rogers said, w,hen asked if he agreed with
Roubini’s view. “It’s clear Mr. Roubini hasn’t done his
homework, yet again.”

Never one to back down from a public confrontation Roubini retorted promptly at today's Inside Commodities Conference in New York. Roubini claimed Rogers' $2,000/ounce forecast is "utter nonsense." As Bloomberg reports:

There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold
prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities
Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass,
with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins,
“maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.

“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is
nonsense,” Roubini said. Gold rose to a record $1,096.20 today
on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division on
speculation that central banks and investors will purchase the
metal to hedge against a declining dollar.

Roubini shared some additional insights into what he believes are bubble markets:

In his New York speech, Roubini repeated his assertion that
asset prices have risen “too much, too soon, too fast.” He’s a
New York University professor and chairman of New York research
and advisory firm Roubini Global Economics.

 

“It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above
$80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand,”
Roubini said. Prices are “in part” a bubble, he said.

Position limits on oil trading, if they helped reduce
volatility, may be “beneficial” because the swings in oil
prices have been “destructive” to the global economy, Roubini
said.

Ah, the good old days, when pundits only quarreled about whether or not subprime was contained (with the consistent chiming in of the Soothsayers of the Fed that not only had they not created a housing or credit bubble, but that everything is under control - just consider the following absolutely moronic quote from the fossil that destroyed capitalism: "Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.... American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home." - Alan Greenspan, 2004). Now that the goldbug camp has such vocal and publicity eager (pr)opponents as Roubini, Rogers and Rosie, expect speculation on gold speculation to reach unprecedented levels.

 

 


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Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:46 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

How much money does Roubini manage?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Umm...ZERO dollars?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:49 | Link to Comment kaiserwongze
kaiserwongze's picture

Academia vs. A proven successful investor.  What a joke.  Is it even a real matchup?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:12 | Link to Comment perfectlyGoodWh...
perfectlyGoodWhiteBoy's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

 

Of course, that could easily apply to both of them.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment callistenes
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 18:53 | Link to Comment snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

Think for yourself

Question authority

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

gold will double to $2,000 an ounce in the next decade

More than that, in less than that.  JMVHO.  Short term?  Who knows.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:12 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I figure gold to 2000 an ounce by April, after Zimbabwe Ben announces his continued and unending support of Fannie/Freddie MBS.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Actually, it will reach $2k next year.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:06 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Easily.  On its way to $10,000.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 11/06/2009 - 01:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 11/06/2009 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Great trade idea, Anon:

Short reality, go long dreams...  Wait.  That trade is already on, and getting quite crowded, too.

Mon, 11/30/2009 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 12:54 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

One of the toughest things for an academic to digest is that things don't always operate according to models or smooth functions. Like many posters here, I think the big new bit of data is the potential for demand of physical metal over futures and paper gold. I tend to listen very closely to Roubini because I think he's very smart, but there is a potential black swan if delivery of physical gold is clogged up because some organizations actually have less gold than they say.

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 01:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:03 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Economists gamble with their reputation, speculators gamble with their money.

 

 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:15 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

You can always recover your money at a later date.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:30 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

While the reputation is like virginity - gone once and forever.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Actually, reputations AND virginities can be sold for a handsome sum by their respective owners.  Just look at Natalie Dylan...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/01/22/virginity.value/index.html

...OR, RNC Chairman Michael Steele, for that matter.

http://blog.reidreport.com/uploaded_images/steele-shock-j-746504.jpg

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:00 | Link to Comment snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

Funny.

One takes advantage of desperation. The other is desperation.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

That is IF you subscribe to the notion of a window dressing world.  Humans, by our very nature fuck up.  It is in how we deal with both success and failure that makes or breaks a reputation in my book

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 18:16 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

You're right. I wasn't serious though, just forgot to put some nasty smile in the end.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:04 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Roubini's a gatekeeper. If he truly lived up to his MSM moniker "Dr Doom" he wouldn't be allowed on teevee. At least not on the General Electric Channel.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:58 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Don't know about that. Seems like they bring him on so they can point at the geeky professor and say "explain to us again how you missed teh Rally!" and laugh behind their hands. It's class warfare, except that he's right and he's just trying to save the financial world for future generations, and they're just trying to make monthly ratings.

They'll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes.

cougar

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 04:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:06 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

“It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above $80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand,” Roubini said. Prices are “in part” a bubble, he said.

Ok, but then it should be almost impossible to justify why it went down from $147 to $30 a bbl in less than a year (just by looking at fundamentals of supply and demand). One of the two: either it is not about the fundamentals, or the fundamentals that professor is looking at are not the same as those affecting the oil market.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Green Sharts
Green Sharts's picture

The price of oil dropped from $147 to $30 during a period when the global economy collapsed and oil supplies went from very tight to a glut.  The increase from $30 to $80 has occurred with global economies remaining weak and without any tightening of oil supplies.

Of course, oil didn't trade very long at either of those extremes, which were almost certainly a result of momentum and leverage.

If the major oil companies thought $80 oil was justified by the fundamentals they would be ramping up their exploration and production budgets, which they're not doing.

 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:51 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Ok, fair enough. Oil producers are not increasing their budgets and expecting that price of oil price is not going to sustain current level and will have to go down.

However, what if the opposite is true and they do not expand oil production because current price of $80 is lower than what is perceived as a justified level? Why would you increase output at a level of $80 a bbl if you can do so at a level, say $100? If price of oil went up from $30 to more than $75 before any economic recovery, then how much higher it can go if there is a recovery. And remember - recession is over, Roubini said so.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:13 | Link to Comment brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

Anyone think there's a possibility the Administration has been working on the Fed and Treasury to let the dollar sag to crisis levels, only to be miraculously firmed up in early 2010?  It would certainly boost the credibility of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi hydra if, after Labor Day and heading into the final mid-term election sprint, that three-headed monstrosity could croak out self-congratulatory fluff about having "pulled the dollar back from the brink."

And if something like that were to happen, where do commodities go?

 

All speculation, I know.  But you know this crowd is going to do something to pump the financial picture going into the fall - I've just been trying to figure out what it is.

 

 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Edna R. Rider
Edna R. Rider's picture

Oil at $100 will warrant a response.  So would gold over $1200.  But it will be a tepid "planned" response and likely serve to just stall the dollar.  My view is the administration, especially Timmy's crowd, are all like computer network engineers, tweaking things every day to keep things going at about the same (lousy) level, when in fact throwing away a bunch of machines and starting over is the smarter approach.  There is no throwing away in this administration.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:05 | Link to Comment snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

From what I have read, he purposely created large sections of his "fedspeak" statements to sound complicated but mean absolutely nothing. And he thinks it was funny.

Its easy to be funny when you know exactly when the house is going to collapse.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Rogers is an idiot on this one. His implication that there is no bubble because a commodity like oil hasn't risen to the previous high of 145 is utter nonsense and shows economic stupidity.  Maybe, just maybe the previous high was a bubble also....what an idiot.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:48 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There are a few people who comment here who I can tell understand complex systems and emergent properties. It's not a subject gamblers would find interesting, and most day-traders are gamblers. Not trying to pick a fight, just making a useful generalization.

I promise you, Roubini absolutely gets it. Rogers I suspect doesn't get it. It doesn't matter, it won't change anything in the end, it ain't a beauty contest. It's just a good idea to know who's looking at it from which angle.

Things are not as they appear; we are no longer the masters ,assuming we ever were. I get the feeling that the financial system as now wired up is set to kill us. It wouldn't have done that before, this is a new thing, something we created ourselves. It's like some animal made entirely out of blades that nobody can manage now and we created Her and there is no escape, She is on her way. Those "financial weapons of mass destruction" are only part of the problem. The dollar carry trade is becoming another. The flight to risky assets with borrowed money, yet another. Paying debt with debt, even worse. Monetary policy see-saws and exit strategy dithering will become the blunt tools that cut the chains and liberate the beast. And when the bitch finds herself free everything within a very large radius is going to be turned instantly into sausage.

Good luck trading around that one, sirs.

cougar

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Thank god that you're here to clarify things for us Cougar...

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:07 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Wasn't meant for you. The lecture you need to attend is a little later.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:33 | Link to Comment snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

I think this is very well put. Things are certainly not as they appear at all.

When the whole thing obliterates there will be many saying: "what just happened???"

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:09 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I agree, Rogers is not all that much smarter than Roubini.  A good trader, perhaps, and lucky for the most part, but he doesn't seem to see the macro picture very clearly sometimes.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:10 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

And I don't trust guys who wear bowties.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

The US Dollar is the bubble.

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 00:55 | Link to Comment slick
slick's picture

Your on the mark Gordon!

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Pillow fight! Yayyyy. I just love pillow fights

-Michael Jackson

I don't know about you but I love it when economists and money managers disagree. One of these days someone is going to get hurt.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

"Economists" today are nothing but charlatans. Turds literally.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:40 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

I agree, I find it pathetic that his facebook has died and filled with his geezer parties.

Six months ago, he would post something and the discussion was brilliant, but sadly today, same ho's wish  him a safe flight and kisses.

Really sad...

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:16 | Link to Comment tradertim
tradertim's picture

“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said.

for gold to rise to $1500 from $1100, it has to go up about 36%. from its low in january of this year, gold rose 36% to its present price. why does roubini think that a rise of another 36% to $1500 is "nonsense" given the fact our nation is bankrupt? at least jim rogers is giving a decade to reach $2000. (maybe roubini has a subscription to 'the elliott wave' theory)

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:06 | Link to Comment hayesy316
hayesy316's picture

"why does roubini think that a rise of another 36% to $1500 is "nonsense" given the fact our nation is bankrupt?"

Why do you think one thing has to do with the other? Like Denninger says, if US debt truly defaults, you're better off buying lead than gold.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:20 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Rogers talking his book!

 

Another "pundit" I can't wait to watch fail.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Dewd, Rogers is NOT a pundit. He's a professional trader and a professor at Columbia University. If you don't agree with him that's fine but do you have anything to back up your position?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:29 | Link to Comment hank_rearden
hank_rearden's picture

regarding gold...to quote kevorn zaxor, ambassador to new planet testing:

"space cash is only worth what you as a planet decided it was worth."

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

+1 for the sweet South Park reference.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:31 | Link to Comment HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

I'll have to agree with Roubini on this one.  Rogers sure changed his tune in a week. 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

If the future were easy to predict, everyone would do it.  Eventually time will tell and then everyone can point fingers at the "loser", call him names, and perhaps make him cry.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:04 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Actually certain kinds of things are really easy to predict, within defined bounds of uncertainty. The problem is that people don't believe it in part because if they did then they would have to behave differently.

Cuts into profits, that sort of thing, don't you know.

cougar

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:08 | Link to Comment hayesy316
hayesy316's picture

"I'll take ALL bets (small and large) for those that want to wager."

That's why you're posting as Anonymous.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:41 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I pretty much agree with what you're saying, but the exception is your thoughts on gold.  Gold is going to and will surpass $3,000/ozt for reasons that are lost upon those who've spent their entire careers on Wall Street.  That sort of mindset only knows consistent and fairly predictable markets, predictable within a certain range of "normal", that "normal" no longer existing.  Wall Street dinosaurs will go extinct unless they adapt.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 04:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 13:49 | Link to Comment TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Weird comments by Rogers

Sort of the opposite of what he has said in the past, i.e. Dow could go to 40,000 if US wants to print its way to "Prosperity"

It's ok to call it a bubble and still profit from it.  Unfortunately its destroying the real economy ... but hey the country is run for the speculator class and debtors.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

I read the entire BBG article w/ Rogers, and I don't see anywhere that he contradicts what he has been saying.

I think people here talking garbage about Rogers in this thread either: 1) didn't read the link and what assets he is referring to, or 2) haven't listened to what he has been saying previously

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 00:58 | Link to Comment slick
slick's picture

Read your history of the last GREAT Gold Bull Market

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:03 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Well, Roubini finally and inequivocally established himself as a complete moron.  His status as a go-to economic guy was an apparent fluke.  The guy is as clueless as Bernanke.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:05 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Cougar said

There are a few people who comment here who I can tell understand complex systems and emergent properties. It's not a subject gamblers would find interesting, and most day-traders are gamblers. Not trying to pick a fight, just making a useful generalization.

"I promise you, Roubini absolutely gets it"

Roubini called this thing--then--

He completly lost sight of it--

If you think like he does,that we've avoided a depression--

Then can you explain,what you see as an economic driver,that will pull us out of this?

 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

"It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above $80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand"

Well, actually Mr. Roubini the opposite is the case -  it is (was) very hard to justify oil dropping from $80 to $30 considering the fundamentals. The WTIC contract was rigged by Wall Street in cahoots with the US Govt - which is why the Saudis are now rejecting the bloody thing. Good riddance.

"Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense"

Mr. Roubini is completely 100% WRONG on Gold. He is the one spouting utter nonsense. Looks like somebody missed the Gold train and/or was short Gold.

If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.

Well, I guess John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones, Andrew Hall, George Soros - not to mention Jim Rogers - are all "hiding in log cabins". This guy is funny - and also a total and complete IDIOT.

"Position limits on oil trading, if they helped reduce volatility, may be “beneficial”

Well, it's clear that this guy is nothing but a SCHILL for the establishment. Let's see - position limits on oil would be "beneficial" (so investors can't protect themselves from pillaging by the  Fed by buying oil and we all know how important cheap oil is to the US Govt. so it can keep running it's Ponzi Schemes). And how about extending this "benefit" of position limits to the precious metals market? But of course we know it will NEVER be extended to THAT market where the bullion banks are short so much metal that they don't have a prayer of delivering - EVER.

Mr. Roubini is a total and complete DISGRACE.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Humble Gentleman
Humble Gentleman's picture

"Mr. Roubini is a total and complete DISGRACE."

That may be a little harsh, because he is successful at what he does. But I'm with you on him being wrong.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Notorious
Notorious's picture

In Aussie dollars too?

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 01:41 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Over one year, relatively flat result, from about $1100/oz to about $1200/oz.

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_1_year_o_aud.png

But also very volatile progress: spikes to about $1250, $1450, $1550 in early 2009. Looks to be on a slow gradual flat-to-uptrend, depending on how responsible the RBA is with rates and how well the Aus economy actually DOES. (I am very skeptical on this last point considering how heavily Aus relies on a continuing Chinese 'boom' and that we have the highest level of private debt in the world.) Since the recent 'economy has recovered' propaganda, gold in AUD is flat to slow-rising.

Over 5 years, rose to $1200 from about $590/oz.

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_5_year_o_aud.png

Over 10 years, rose to $1200 from about $490/oz.

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_10_year_o_aud.png

Long term, gently rising trend in AUD. This year, a lot of volatility, and I would call this recent flat pattern very much a wait-and-see period, regarding how well (or badly) the economy does.

From here on the ground, I don't hold out much hope for the economy continuing well.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Oil went from about $60-70 p/bb in late '06 early'07 to $145 p/bb over corrected in '08 to $41 p/bb and is not about where it was in the summer of '07.  The ramp from June '07 to June '08 was a bubble pure and simple.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

The crash from $147 to $30 was the real bubble (an inverse bubble, if you will).

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:28 | Link to Comment HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

Why do you get so upset all the time gold lover?  How much of that stuff are you holding?  I understand your investment thesis.  

What you don't understand is that all of that money that's been printed by the Fed is not being lent out but being used by the banks to bid up the markets and other assets such as gold?  There's no acceleration of money currently occurring so there is no inflation much less hyper-inflation.

The banks essentially were given a bunch of moeny to go out and buy up cheap assets and claim profitability when those assets rose.  Now it will all fall back down again.

Believe me if anyone is a shill its Rogers.  One week ago he was saying on Bloomberg expect the anti-dollar trade to end and a bubble in treasuries.  A week later he's saying gold will hit $2000 and there's no bubbles in equities.  A more reasonable explanation is Rogers is blowing smoke and dumping positions into the bubble. 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:39 | Link to Comment lookma
lookma's picture

Its great when people talk about the banks not lending meaning there can be no inflation and/or hyperinflation because then you can be confident they have no idea what they are talking about and are just ranting out of fear against that which they do not understand.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:45 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

If the banks are buying up assets with TARP funds then the money is getting out into circulation, hence inflation, soon to be followed by hyperinflation.  Or, we may just skip the inflation entirely and proceed directly to hyperinflation, a crisis of confidence in a condemned currency.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:49 | Link to Comment snorkeler
snorkeler's picture

I disagree. I do Agree with HEHEHE.  The banks are not lending this huge chunk of liquidity (TARP, FED loans etc.) out. They are using it to build up their balance sheets which if accounted for properly, would show severe insolvency.

If all of this excess liquidity began to be lent out quickly, hyperinflation would be the most likely outcome. Ask around. Banks are not lending.

lookma, please tell us what we are fearful of and do not understand.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 22:45 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Banks are not lending yet because the need to shore up their balance sheets for further unknown deterioration from failed loans.  If and when conditions improve with rising real estate prices (the goal of QE) and improvement in default rates, the cash on the balance sheets will come roaring back into the market.  Just like last time, banks will compete to be first to "put cash to work", so this capital will return fast and furiously.  MBS or other asset bundles have not been made illegal and requirements to retain risk in house (skin in the game) hasn't happened.  So leverage will be applied again by bundling up packages of joy.  They may not be mortgages in the bundles next time, but the result will be the same.

The fed has a poor track recored for recognizing these turns, so they will be late to act again. 

When we reach this tipping point, cheap cash will flood the market with the usual inflationary effects on asset prices.  The next bubble likely will form somewhere else instead of revisiting real estate.  It's hard to say where, but gold is money, so gold will go along for the ride.

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:12 | Link to Comment hayesy316
hayesy316's picture

"Mr. Roubini is completely 100% WRONG on Gold."

You can only be 100% wrong about something in retrospect. Deflate the ego a bit and quit confusing your opinion with facts.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:46 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

:)

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Humble Gentleman
Humble Gentleman's picture

Mr. Rogers is a successful investor, and Mr. Roubini is a successful academic. Hm, I think I'll be pragmatic and give a lot more credence to what Mr. Rogers has to say when putting my own money to work.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:47 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

TOTALLY!!! That dude is like an utter total genious or somesuch shit.  I would suckle his cock if only he would tell me more great secrets of the financial universe.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:59 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

I don't know about suckling  his cock, somewhat extreme even on a sure bet, but I was calling this shit hole back in 2005 walking around Harmony Florida asking the builders if they where nuts? and I don't remember him..

 

Rubini the academic,,, all the white shoe boys from the ivy league that storm trouped us into this shit should all be in Cuba shucking sugar..

Sat, 11/07/2009 - 00:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

If any of you think Gold is in a bubble you're an idiot. Let's look at the facts shall we?

1) Double of the money supply in late 2008

2) The US needs to reduce its debt by at least half by 2014 (another 50% drop in purchasing power needs to occur through the printing press)

3) Where are all the people telling you to buy gold? Most people I talk to don't even understand what the value of something is or how to determine it. Hell, in another post some idiot said Gold had no intrinsic value, if that isn't any indication of just how stupid people are I don't know what else is.

Gold is not in a bubble, the dollar is just being devalued and demand is picking up. Until you hear everyone tell you to go out and buy gold because it is a good investment (i.e. not hedge or store of wealth) then you know.

I am sorry but things do not look good for the dollar. Unless Ben or Timmy increase interest rates to 20% like Paul Volker did Gold will just keep going up. Having said that, because of the financial situation we are in, raising interest rates won't happen. Gold is going to be higher than 2000 an ounce a decade from now. You will be lucky if you can even purchase gold with dollars a decade from now.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Hey, news for you.....the $$ has been declining since the 1950's.  After WWII the US was great...why...because we blew apart most of the worlds productive capabilities.  As countries have invested capital to produce goods and services the US has naturally lost the unreal competative advantage it had immediately after the war.  As long as the pie as a whole continues to grow everyone is happy but when the pie shrinks we have problems.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 15:52 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Why must we necessarily evaluate Gold in Dollar terms?

Because that's the currency in which most commodities trade.

But certainly, feel free to valuate it in any currency or commodity you prefer.  We'll try to follow along.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 21:02 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

I have gold, and I'm walking bare ass through tall cotton...

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 21:07 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

Rubini was one of us until he became noteworthy, and then they got to him, and now he's one of THEM NWO Bilderberg Group, Council on Foreign Relations MUHAHAHAHAHAH... Puppet post...

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 16:16 | Link to Comment PeterB
PeterB's picture

Looks like we're only minutes away from gold trading at $1100usd even gold in AUD is creeping up to recent highs.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Did Rogers drive up in a Lamborghini double clutch tractor?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:43 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

It was Yellow

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:50 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

Your attempt at provoking trouble, is LIMP.. Next destination for you, Huffington Post,, now move along.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

Oil was a bubble at $147.  Even OPEC was screaming that the world was "Awash in oil" and the price didn't make any sense.  The Fed and speculators have the markets so screwed up that noone knows what anything is worth.  Want to get a fair price on oil?  Shut down the hyperinflation speculators and make anyone who buys oil futures take physical delivery.

 

And Roubini has been much more accurate than Rogers the last few years.  Rogers called a bottom to the Chinese stock market at 3400 before it collapsed to 1600.  All markets are being inflated right now.  Will it last?  How determined is Bernanke to turn the dollar to dust?  Noone knows but him.

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

I hate to be a nag, but...trading gold may make you some money (maybe even a lot of money).  I make a bunch in PM's a few years back myself.  However, it is not a long term store of wealth for the simple reason that if (when?) things get bad our masters are going to confiscate the gold (and pay you a small fraction of what it is worth internationally).  They did it 75 years ago and they will do it again.  You may be able to "save" it by hiding it somewhere but you will not be able to buy things for your family with it (which is my definition of what money is).  What we should be arguing about is how to perserve the Republic and the rule of law, not the price of gold. Just MVHO.

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Humble Gentleman
Humble Gentleman's picture

I'm not so sure about your remark vis-a-vis confiscating gold, because the circumstances are much different now. People are fed up with our 'representatives', so the reps are in a tenuous position. Insurrection would occur overnight if they announced such an absurd change of course. Eh?

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Howard Katz has an interesting article arguing that gold confiscation is unnecessary by governments and therefore won't be done (unless/until there is a return to a gold standard for currency).

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article14699.html

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture
Nouriel Roubini is off tonite to London and Dublin for buzzzzinessss...back to NYC on Friday night...let me know what is cooking Friday night back home for fun... his facebook post....He will soon be the pitch man for Viagra/Cialis...along with old fart Soros...to be followed by Summers pitching narcolepsy drugs.
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 21:29 | Link to Comment time123
time123's picture

It all depends on the value of the dollar. If it falls further, gold prices will rise. But when it becomes clear that the US economy is growing strong, the US dollar will rise, and gold prices will be capped.

 

time123

admin: http://invetrics.com

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/04/2009 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

USD bullish divergence continues . . .

What happens to Gold when the USD rallies ?

Daily charts in key equity indices are still giving bearish warnings.

MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

 

Wed, 11/04/2009 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:43 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 06:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/05/2009 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Jim B
Jim B's picture

Roubini is a pretty smart man, but I don't see the spending/deficit situation having a happy ending for the dollar.  He seems to be ignoring this.........

Thu, 11/05/2009 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 11/07/2009 - 01:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 11/09/2009 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 11/09/2009 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/11/2009 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/11/2009 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/12/2009 - 04:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 11/30/2009 - 19:22 | Link to Comment FreddyInBangkok
FreddyInBangkok's picture

who would you think is the better investor, Jimmy or the other one? never trust an intellectual ... or anyone who worked for Soros for that matter.

 

by Bob Chapman http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16313 Global Research, November 28, 2009 The International Forecaster

The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance. The Fed has to do one of two things: They either have to pull $1.5 trillion out of the system by June, which would collapse the economy, or face hyperinflation. This is why the Fed has instructed banks to inform them when and how much of the TARP funds they can return. At best they can expect $300 to $400 billion plus the $200 billion the Fed already has in hand. We believe the Fed will opt for letting the system run into hyperinflation. All signs tell us they cannot risk allowing the undertow of deflation to take over the economy. The system cannot stand such a withdrawal of funds. They also must depend on assistance from Congress in supplying a second stimulus plan. That would probably be $400 to $800 billion. A lack of such funding would send the economy and the stock market into a tailspin. Even with such funding the economy cannot expect any growth to speak of and at best a sideways movement for perhaps a year. We have been told that the FDIC not only is $8.2 billion in the hole, but they have secretly borrowed an additional $80 billion from the Treasury. We have also been told that the FDIC is lying about the banks in trouble.

The number in eminent danger are not 552, but a massive 2,035. The cost of bailing these banks out would be $800 billion to $1 trillion. That means 2,500 could be closed in 2010. Now get this, the FDIC is going to be collapsed before the end of 2010, which means no more deposit insurance. This follows the 9/18/09 end of government guarantees on money market funds. Both will force deposits into US government bonds and agency bonds in an attempt to save the system. This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses. Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year. We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar.

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