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Was Bill Dudley Given Today's NFP Number In Advance?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday when we speculated that Kocherlakota may have been leaked the NFP number based on his hawkish tone, we presented an attempt at refutation by Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw who claimed the following: "I've heard some stories that Kocherlakota has seen tomorrow's employment report and that explains his hawkishness comments.  However, there is no way this is true.  Only the Fed Chairman gets the report ahead of time (late in afternoon on the day prior to release) and he doesn't even share it with the other governors -- never mind the regional bank Presidents." Let's do a little math exercise. Today at 8:30 am the BLS came out with a step change in the unemployment rate which dropped from 8.9% to 8.8%. So far so good. Then at 10:00 am Dudley released his speech from embargo with the following disclosure: "unemployment rate has fallen sharply over the past four months, dropping to 8.8 percent from 9.8 percent in November." Obviously Dudley was aware of the NFP number at the time of writing the speech. So our question is: did Dudley write the speech in the 1:30 hours between the NFP release (presumably while in Puerto Rico)? Or did he simply leave the unemployment data blank until the last moment and just filled it in after the official number was released? Since an embargoed version of the speech was likely released to various news outlets in advance, that cuts the time he had to pencil in the correction. Or, of course, if the embargoed version went out before 8:30 am that confirms that Dudley was well aware of the NFP number ahead of time, and roundly refutes the "fact" that only Bernanke sees the jobs number before its public release. Which then brings the question: who else sees the NFP number in addition to Bernanke? And just how profitable is the industry of distributing forward looking economic data at time of embargo distribution, especially when it pertains to something as critical as the NFP number.

Alas we are rather confident these questions will remain within the domain of the rhetorical, where they belong.

h/t to Bruce Krasting who pointed out this peculiar discrepancy

 

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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:54 | 1125260 spartan117
spartan117's picture

So much for that dollar rally.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1125335 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

So the FED CHIEF does all of his own legwork?
He does all the number crunching himself?

LOLLLLLLLLLLL

It's called 'staff' and they tend to be mouthy and easily persuaded for a few worthless bucks.

I'm sure a 'fat' manila envelope hit the proverbial porch of the one who leaked it to those 'doing gods work'.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:53 | 1125261 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Does anymore seriously think these criminals play fair?

These are the biggest crooks, murders and thieves history has ever ever seen. They are more dangerous than standing armies, as we were warned.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:59 | 1125279 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

The current state of the US Spinconomy is a national security concern, and has been since the crash.  Are there any fools out there who really believe that BLS report info isn't known by TPTB well in advance of any public release?......hell folks....they created the reports!!!!

T.E.I.N. everyone!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1125312 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Get Gupta on the phone.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:07 | 1125318 redpill
redpill's picture

What do you want to bet they let their foreign central bank buddies know too?  How are these retards supposed to appear smarter than everyone else if they don't get to frontrun the info?

But rest assured, one thing we know for certain: Joe Taxpayer is always always ALWAYS the absolute LAST person to be told.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1125321 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Anyone see Larry Meyer between 8:30 and 10:00?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:56 | 1125265 Racer
Racer's picture

"All animals are equal but some are more equal than others"

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:57 | 1125268 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Obviously, the answer is that Dudley is clairvoyant.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:58 | 1125271 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Of course Dudley had the number. He called Ben and said "Yo, my brother I need the number for my speech tomorrow. Can you hook a brother up"?

 

"No problem, G. It's 8.8"

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:59 | 1125273 augie
augie's picture

While i agree wtih the suspission, I dont think this is enough evidence to make a case for criminal activity.

 

which is exactly why this is probably true.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125281 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

You'll still be saying that when you're living on the street pushing your kids around in a shopping kart, while spending your benefit dosh on $100 Macdonald meals.

Normacy bias.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:31 | 1125422 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

Augie, if there were enough evidence to make a case for criminal activity, the article would have been entitled something like 'Evidence that Bill Dudley knew the NFP number early and that David Greenlaw lies or pretends to know stuff he doesn't," but worded more cleverly. It would make a lot of ZH readers very happy to see a follow up article with that evidence.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:00 | 1125276 99er
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125293 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Your charts are utter junk son, stop wasting your life drawing those stupid lines that mean nothing.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1125301 augie
augie's picture

I Think someone needs a hug.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:04 | 1125308 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Yes, i would love a hug.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:16 | 1125365 augie
augie's picture

I think we all would at this point.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1125306 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Any chart today is only useful as a graph of manipulation. Why anyone even looks at these things anymore with any interest is laughable.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:59 | 1125277 Racer
Racer's picture

They have no fear of retribution so their lies are getting more and more transparent

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125278 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

oops... 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:00 | 1125282 pendragon
pendragon's picture

bernanke gave it to his best buddy dudley. dudley has definitely turned up the dovish volume to counter some of the hawkish rhetoric of past 24hrs

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:02 | 1125283 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"Only the Fed Chairman gets the report ahead of time (late in afternoon on the day prior to release) and he doesn't even share it with the other governors -- never mind the regional bank Presidents..."

bwahahahhahahhahahahhhhaaaahhahhahaaa!!! like that means a shit...that's the rules but the rules are only for the little people and public consumption......

and how would this chicken shit greenlaw know what really happens???? besides there are more channels to the information than via this report....

parse, dice, and slice the non-committal denials....what a hack...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:00 | 1125285 Chasecran
Chasecran's picture

Don't sell stocks when the sap is running up the trees.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125292 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

calling them all sheisters, would be an insult to sheisters everywhere

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:03 | 1125296 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture
"Foreign Banks Tapped Fed's Lifeline Most as Bernanke Kept Borrowers Secret" bloomberg news..

remember the fed is working for the American people..sure it is..international banking elite sucking the fed dry. where's Ron Paul??

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:29 | 1125419 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Better yet, the rebel Libyan bank!

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-01/libya-owned-bank-got-73-loan...

Can you say Benocide?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:38 | 1125451 redpill
redpill's picture

Ron Paul: 

critics immediately lambasted the central bank’s activities. Long-time Fed foe Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), for example, the chairman of the House subcommittee that deals with the central bank, blasted the new revelations in a TV interview.

“The American people are going to be outraged when they understand what has been going on,”charged Rep. Paul, a fierce critic of the bailouts, the secrecy, and even the Fed itself, which he hopes to abolish eventually. “What in the world are we doing thinking we can pass out tens of billions of dollars to banks that are overseas? We have problems here at home with people not being able to pay their mortgages, and they’re losing their homes.”

http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/6946-documents-fed-showered-money-on-foreign-banks

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:03 | 1125299 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH right, the ChairSatan is so honest, therefore proof he would never leak info to anyone. WTF.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:03 | 1125300 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

News embargoes are very, very suspect.

If some mega-millionaire is willing to risk the appearance of impropriety to bank a couple more million by front running his boss, you can reasonably assume that lowly reporters are leaking embargoed news for profit.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1125302 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

If Alpha Flash is worth its salt, shouldn't they see it ahead of time so that the algos can see it ahead of time, so that ... oh what's the use.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:04 | 1125305 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Every friend of the FED sees the number...that's why the market has been moving up all week....relentlessly.  It’s all corruption for the benefit of the financial sector at the expense of the taxpayer and main street.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1125307 pendragon
pendragon's picture

in dudley's speech he mentions higher oil prices cutting ito household spending. what do you think caused the higher oil prices....oh yes your policies?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1125311 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Chavez wants his drug kingpin extradited from Columbia ahead of the DEA

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1125315 magpie
magpie's picture

In Soviet America, Number knows You !

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:08 | 1125316 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Quinnipiac Obama approval 41%. And the tickertape so fills the air you cant see your own hand in front of your face.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1125331 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

That ramp on the Russell 2000 in the last half hour yesterday sure looked suspicious-especially when all the other indexes stayed flat or dropped off.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:14 | 1125344 G-R-U-N-T
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125357 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The report was already pre-released to a “few selected ones” no later than on Monday (a few releases back, Biden knew the unemployment rate number on Tuesdays – if Biden knew it, it means all his aides also knew it).
These government connected frontrunners will be selling later this afternoon.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125378 alexwest
alexwest's picture

hey tyler ,
you got it backward..

you think some Phds at BLS calculate unemlp rate,
and then secretly telegraph to FED..

you're smarter than that

ITS THE FED WHO SAYS TO BLS WHAT KIND OF FIGURE
THEY WANT TO GET ... got it ?

of course nobody talks from FED directly to researches in BLS, no.. that would be too unprofessional.

just once in while some big shot from FED talk to senior guys at BLS and whisper disired figure in next 2,3 months

wise up
alx

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:23 | 1125391 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

Gosh yes, i can see why you are all so up in arms about this:  Jun 10yrs moved a whopping 5 price points ie almost 3bp from asian timezone levels, prior to the release of the data.  Truely, incontrovertible evidence that the Goldman/Fed/Military Industrial Complex are just there to provide a black market in economic data.  obviously the 8 price point fall after the release was just the few guys who hadnt seen er paid for, the data before hand, selling out.  wow, the guys who paid for the data are no doubt really peeved now that Dudley went and sent prices way higher with his comments afterward, eh?  so much for that business.

seriously, Zerohedge is a really interesting site with great information that is not replicated anywhere else i know of, but the diarrhea smeared all over the comments section, masquerading as human intelligence, is just tragic.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:24 | 1125396 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

They're all at it, how else are they supposed to retire...you think they are happy with the paltry sums the tax paying public provides? He caught a wiff of the dirty frilly pants and he's in the process of sniffing the shit out of them untill he has a massive heart attack. ahhhh breathe in Dudley, breathe out, you little rat. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:37 | 1125444 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

yep, more of the diarrhea to which i referred.

while we are on the subject, who frigging cares if Dudley saw the data prior to? we are talking about aggregated national data and i am guessing that quite a few people see them in the process, as if you couldnt figure that out.  obviously noone here realises this, but all the news agencies see embargoed copies of the data before hand anyway. or do you all think that the tables and commentaries which come out within minutes of the release, were just knocked together by very fast typists?  so why would it matter if the same people saw Dudley's speech with one of the numbers written into it?  answer: it doesnt.  this  whole post is just a complete no-story, and in the meantime, there is no proper comment on the fact that Dudley, one of 2 Fed governors whose words anyone needs to listen to, has just made it abundantly clear that there will be no early retirement of QE2, and no rate hikes anytime soon. honestly..

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:49 | 1125474 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Is i a Federal offense if a FED member is getting these numbers upfront?  Or with other words: can we get rid off Mr. Dudley on the board of directors of the FED? Can he be imprisoned? Shall Mr. Cuomo be involved? Questions over questions. And no ansers from federal prosecutors...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:14 | 1125556 g3h
g3h's picture

Obviously he had it.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:59 | 1125768 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Do you understand "embargoed"?, as in "embargoed" copies of speeches, announcements, stories, etc?

Do you understand "insider" trading and related activities done to benefit from privileged, non-public data?

Do you understand that "embargoed" copies are seen by lots of humanoids who promise[?] to keep quiet until the appointed time?

Do you understand that humanoids are tempted by easy money?... especially when immune from any effective justice system?

"Embargoed" ...like ToothFairy? SantaClaus? EricHolder's integrity? Mark2Market?

Sat, 04/02/2011 - 05:49 | 1127603 Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

10am? well that's the time the USD started its plunge - well done dud! more ipads for those on risk-on trade

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