Was The Disappointing Paris Air Show A Harbinger Of Another Durable Goods Disaster And More Economic Weakness?

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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:04 | 1466077 oogs66
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must have been the weather, or japan, can't be anything like weak demand

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:12 | 1466091 idea_hamster
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So much for the hockeystick economic growth in the second half of 2011.

Oh, but we are going to get "hockeystick growth" in 2H11 -- just that it will be the Marty McSorely version, and we'll feel it much like Donald Brashear did....


Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:28 | 1466164 trav7777
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everybody already ordered a 787, which was supposed to be out by now, but the executive-enriching "globally sourced" idiocy of Boeing has prevented that.

There is a glut of planes.  Too many models, and a lot of competition, exist in every size class.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 13:26 | 1474349 BinAround
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Within 2 days of Tylers doomy observation, we see a very large order for Boeing/Airbus in the news.  600 jets is large.

Tyler does great editing, but perspective and balance could be something to work on.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:06 | 1466084 francis_sawyer
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Phil LeBeau to give you the "Lazlo Biriyni" spin on it in 5...4...3...2...

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:09 | 1466097 francis_sawyer
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immediately followed by LIESman telling you how the 'Fed' will len a helping hand in all of it...

... followed by Santelli telling you how much you just really got dinked for...


& the chorus girls say "if you stare at my tits long enough, they'll actually start looking big & juicy"...


Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:11 | 1466085 Master Chef
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They need a "cash for clunkers" program.

Or a good auction... Boeing, Boeing, Gone.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:08 | 1466093 kito
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its all ok because our banks are doing well.


Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:10 | 1466095 Iam_Silverman
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It is interesting to see the results from the air show, but they seem to be only reporting sales from one vendor.  Were orders weak across the board?  It is also important to note that the lack of deliveries in the Dreamliner model may have an impact on orders - who wants to buy a product that has yet to be delivered anywhere near its scheduled date?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:15 | 1466379 karzai_luver
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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:12 | 1466104 Atomizer
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Won't be long before TSA goes on strike.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:15 | 1466113 francis_sawyer
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OT... But (in the "it was bound to happen sooner or later" category)... I just got a BLUE STAR AIRLINES ad pop-up...

Bud Fox & Goron Gekko must have something up their sleeve!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:16 | 1466117 francis_sawyer
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Goin' to Pluto bitchez!

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:17 | 1466123 Conrad Murray
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Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:31 | 1466176 trav7777
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what is, "sucks"?  Aviation for 400, Alex

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:20 | 1466138 mess nonster
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The ownership and financing of aircraft is one of the most tortuous and convoluted chains of interlocking shell companies, financing, and leasing outfits that can possibly imagined, rivalled only by Rupert Murdoch's "oragnization" and  CIA- sponsored Islamic terrorist-slash- drug smuggling networks. Perhaps a drop in orders is representative of something akin to recent SHIBOR credit seize-ups? 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1466204 Oh regional Indian
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Aircraft Boneyards http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_boneyard


India's aviation industry is flying on fumes and bail-outs.

Bailing out an airline sounds extremely oxymoronish, does it not?



Mon, 07/18/2011 - 10:43 | 1466223 drswhaley
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There is little risk to Egan in his call here.  He is using timing of his Barron's article, appearance on CNBC, and word of the downgrade, to bolster his firm's standing.  He is an alternative credit rating agency not paid by the issuer.  He sees the issuer conflicted rating agency crisis as a way to capitalize on his business model.  It is known that competition is needed.  Best of luck to him. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:11 | 1466303 litoralkey
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EDIT: The information in this original post is in disagreement over total sales/options compared to every other media outlet I've read.




I did my graduate MBA thesis on the airline industry in 1999-2001.  It helped that my good friend was the market segment junior analyst for the aircraft manufacturing industry at JPMorgan at the time.

The lack of orders at the Paris Airshow is not really a indicator of the airline industry as a whole, and hasn't been since the first Gulf War back in 1991.

Most of the carriers in the emerging (growth) markets are bypassing the airshows system and working directly with Airbus/Boeing/Bombadier/Embraer and shell corporations and leaseback holding groups.

Look at the new model options at Paris airshow this year... very little innovation as the innovations of the last decade are still being delivered on long term contracts.  New seat configurations and incremental improvements in materials and components isn't going to close sales/leases.

Selling McDonald's HappyMeals to Africans is one thing, selling 747s to African kleptocracies is another story.

General Electric Commercial Aviation Services (GECAS) and International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) and Bank of China Aircraft leasing units do not send purchasing people to Paris to be sold a bill of goods, they send them to go enjoy French cuisine, wine, women and comped recreational services.  Boeing/Airbus etc send their people to the leasing corps at the beck and call of the leasing corp's executives.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 11:05 | 1466311 litoralkey
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EDIT: Dupe

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