Was Last Night's Launch Of A "Rogue" Missile A Warning To Asia?

Tyler Durden's picture

Many questions are swirling over last night's launch of a rogue rocket, which it appears was a submarine launched ICBM from the Pacific, 35 miles west of Los Angeles. So far pretty much everyone has denied any involvement, and as per the NYPost, "according to Fox News, NORAD and NORTHCOM would only say they were aware of the launch" even as "a navy spokesperson previously told KCBS that no navy activity was reported in the region." Yet the closest approximation for what the reason for the launch may have been comes from Robert Ellsworth, former defense secretary: "On viewing the footage, former deputy defense secretary Robert Ellsworth speculated on KCBS that the launch could be a show of military muscle. "It could be a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine ... to demonstrate, mainly to Asia, that we can do that," Ellsworth said." And China has not even sold and US bonds yet. So did China Dagong in turn retaliate earlier by downgrading the US? At this point we can only hope that the Chairman can confine his FX war to Forex terminals, without actually involving a few strategically placed mushroom clouds.

Update: Karl Denninger muses whether the missile was even an American one:

What if this wasn't one of ours?
Who else has this capability?  China?  Russia?  Is this some sort of warning to Obama and/or Bernanke? 

Where was it launched from?
Sea-launched,
as near as we can tell - but surface or submarine? Given the commercial
and recreational vessel traffic in that area, if this was ship-launched
someone should have seen the launching vessel.  Now, more than 12 hours later, there are no reports of anyone having it on radar. 
Note that private vessel radars are quite-capable of resolving a ship
large enough to launch something like this from the distance to the
horizon.  My ship's radar was quite-capable of resolving a vessel of
this size if low to the water in the 10-12 mile range (curvature of the
earth) and if the vessel had significant superstructure above the water,
even further.  If this thing was submarine launched then it gets even more interesting.

Why the silence?
I find it very
unlikely this was one of ours - unless it was a mistake.  An
intentional launch - even of a missile with a dummy "warhead" - this
close to LA?  No way.  A malfunction could have sent that thing right
into downtown before it could be destroyed, and even unarmed it would do
a hell of a lot of damage.  For this reason I do not believe this was an intentional US test.

Where were the NOTAMs if this was ours?
Missing, that's where.  Multiple reports now that there were NO
notices posted for aviators.  No way in hell our military intentionally
launches a missile without posting NOTAMs for the civilian air system
before it happens.  This means it either wasn't ours, or wasn't
intentionally launched.

Where are the people who heard the notices on VHF Marine Radios and others?
I
live less than 5 miles from Eglin AFB.  They run military exercises all
the time out in the gulf.  I boat in the gulf.  There are not only
NOTAMs posted all the time on their activity, but there are also notices
posted for mariners when they intend to do things out in the deep blue
sea.  The military comes up on VHF regularly and announces
their intentions - and if you get too close by accident they are rather
explicit in their warnings to you as well.
  I have heard these warnings and notices dozens of times.  The point is this: if
this was a military exercise there would be hundreds if not thousands
of mariners who would have heard about it, and it would have been
pointed out by now in the media
.

 



 

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CPL's picture

The tinfoil brigade was on about something on Saturday regarding the miscatelogued 50 nukes in the inventory and co-relating it to a russian blind woman issuing statemetns of doom.

Dolar in a vortex's picture

It was China saying, we have your paper and these cool new rockets!

All your base are belong to us!

Sabibaby's picture

It appears the terrorists have moved from their caves to submarines with ballistic missiles.

Azannoth's picture

Did some1 smuggle an ICBM in their underware ? Another epic fail from the TSA

mt paul's picture

fat finger 

missile launch...

RichardP's picture

My two cents.  I live in the San Fernando Valley, north side of LA.  I see contrails across our sky constantly.  I see launches from Vandenberg AFB occassionally.  I saw this about 7:30 a.m. pst the morning, from the middle of the SFV:

One contrail from NW to SE.  Way fatter than any contrail I've ever seen in the SFV sky, but could be the time elapsed and wind that spread it/fattened it.  Contrail is straight -  from NW, over the top of my head, and across LA proper to the SE.  But before it hits my horizon to the SE, it suddenly goes all squiggly and then ends.  Two other contrails go from the NW to the SE.  Both contrails at the NW are out on either side of the fat contrail.  But both contrails converge on the squiggly part of the fat contrail to the SW.  Neither contrail to the sides of the fat contrail are as fat as the middle contrail.

Some time ago, a rocket was launched out over the Pacific Ocean from Vandenberg.  A missle was launched to intercept it.  The two contrails from that converged high in the sky.  But they appeared to go almost straight up from NW of me, although I know at least the Vandenberg missile was going up and to the SW.  The contrail from Vandenberg had squiggles in it at the top like I saw this morning. Unlike that sequence, this morning's contrails passed over my head.

If I had to guess, I would say a target was tossed into the sky across land and shot at with two missiles.  The squiggly part of the fat contrail could have been evasive maneuvers undertaken by the target.  Or maybe it shows where the missiles collided with the target.  And since this had happened hours earlier, maybe it did take place over the Pacific but had been blown over land by the time I saw it.

RichardENixon's picture

I think it was swamp gas. Or maybe a weather balloon.

RichardP's picture

The swamp gas normally sits lower down, over Balboa park.  There is man-made lake and a big marshy area there, both filled with reclaimed waste water.

Correction to my post above:  the two side contrails converge on the fat contrail at the squiggly area to the SE - not SW as I stated.

RichardENixon's picture

I can't help but notice that you fail to refute my assertion that it was a weather balloon.

RichardP's picture

That might explain the squiggly part of the contrail just before it stopped.  You know, like you blow up a balloon and then let the end go.  The balloon flies squigly all over the place.  Probably was a weather balloon that got punctured by a missle.  Went squigly all over.

Cistercian's picture

 You are wrong.It was the planet Venus.Venus is often mistaken for weather balloons or missiles.Don't make me show up in a brand new 1966 lincoln continental at your front door.

Problem Is's picture

It was swamp gas reflecting off of Venus... I put my laser pointer up to check for weather balloons...

The PolyCapitalist's picture

Any word yet on where it came down, or whether it did come down?

andy55's picture

I served and qualified fully as a junior officer aboard a 688i class sub from 2000 to 2003 out of San Diego.  We completed various missions, including ops in areas that sound like "mellow flea." 

The list of possibilities for this event is rather short based on the facts.  Let's just say the USN *may* know where every PRC sub is every instant in time based on ALL kinds of intel.  And when they don't, let's just say that may be a priority.  Beyond that, for a PRC sub to transit the pacific and launch only miles away from US territory would be like trying to drive a dump truck inside the lobby of a public library without anyone noticing.  There's only one set of non-US subs that would have a prayer to pull this off, and they've been rusting for 15+ years now.

So, this has to be an accident (basically impossible given the USN's procedures), or a US launch where the DOD for some reason is playing dumb.  When I was in, the USN tended to conduct a full FLBM (fleet-launch ballistic missile) test only every 1-2 years and it's a BIG deal when it happens.  The third possibility is that this isn't a FLBM and something even more unlikley or unusual. 

So take your pick. 

 

cougar_w's picture

There's only one set of non-US subs that would have a prayer to pull this off, and they've been rusting for 15+ years now.

Maybe one is missing now, having been sold. Stranger things have happened, ya know.

andy55's picture

Perhaps, but this would appear to be unlikely.  For this mission, you would need at least:

- a trained engineering crew to operate an ill-maintained soviet reactor and propulsion plant,

- an experienced foreward crew to transit the boat 6000+ nm (without being counterdetected)

- a tacitcal ops team to conduct the launch

- a plan of escape that would ensure you get away with the sub while dozens of US ships, subs, and satellites turn the SoCal waters inside out

Paul Bogdanich's picture

99% probability that it was one of our sub-orbital boost platforms being tested for a different payload configuration.  1% chance it was a Chinese submarine showing us that they had the capability but I highly doubt it. 

cougar_w's picture

And 47% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Cannot rule out the Chinese or the Russians at this point, though I'd wonder what the Russians would be trying to prove. I'd lump the N Koreans right in there with them. And I wouldn't put the Iranians out of it either though it seems a stretch.

Paul Bogdanich's picture

99% probability that it was one of our sub-orbital boost platforms being tested for a different payload configuration.  1% chance it was a Chinese submarine showing us that they had the capability but I highly doubt it. 

Paul Bogdanich's picture

99% probability that it was one of our sub-orbital boost platforms being tested for a different payload configuration.  1% chance it was a Chinese submarine showing us that they had the capability but I highly doubt it. 

Paul Bogdanich's picture

99% probability that it was one of our sub-orbital boost platforms being tested for a different payload configuration.  1% chance it was a Chinese submarine showing us that they had the capability but I highly doubt it. 

espirit's picture

Probably aliens. Probably aliens. Probably aliens. Probably aliens.

sushi's picture

A pair of Chinese speaking Hizbollah operatives launching from a vinyl raft they picked up at Zellers. By definition they were also aliens but very very dedicated aliens.

curly's picture

Ha!  Who needs the tinfoil hat brigade.

Would be a beautiful thing if it *were* a Chinese missile guided by the tech that Loral's Bernie Schwartz sold them, and it landed on Bernie's SoCal compound...

 

HarryWanger's picture

"The mysterious California missile launch that wasn't"

http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/the-mysterious-...

People will believe anything the "news" reporters tell them - sad.

HarryWanger's picture

According to these experts, it was a jet contrail: http://contrailscience.com/a-problem-of-perspective-in-the-oc-new-years-...

Look at all the videos and stills and it becomes pretty obvious.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

According to these experts, it was a jet contrail.....

I always listen to the experts.

Always.

HarryWanger's picture

I know nothing about the science of contrails, these guys do so I would tend to listen to them before some moron SoCal "news" reporter. 

HarryWanger's picture

Just metals. A short via SDS opened on Friday. 

tmosley's picture

That didn't look like any contrail I've ever seen.

Eternal Student's picture

Agreed. And if you've actually ever seen a missle launch, it looks just like one.

Contrail, my butt. But it's par for the course from Harry.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I found the referrence.

O! say can you see by the dawn's early light,
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming,
Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming.
And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our contrails were still there;
O! say does that star-spangled banner yet wave,
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

aldousd's picture

Orwell would be proud. Can't argue with the facts.

BlackChicken's picture

Hey CD, thanks for the great laugh; very clever...

tmosley's picture

I also never saw a contrail coming from a bright orange-red light.  I guess the sub-launched civilian aircraft Harry is calling for must have been using afterburners.

For reference, this is what a REAL contrail looks like: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrail

Notice how the color of the "contrail" reported above is not white, ie is not the product of ice crystal formation?  Blow it out your ass Harry, you don't know what you are talking about.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Clearly swamp gas.

....of the third kind? Of the fourth or fifth kind?

Danger Will Robinson, Danger.

:>)

merehuman's picture

Harry, you are a funny guy. Contrails coming straight from the water. Airplanes launched from below the sea, o yeah! Nuts.

SheepDog-One's picture

You know nothing, but are happy to draw conclusions.

cougar_w's picture

They (whoever the hell they are) are sea-launching god-damned 2-stage ICBMs. Shut up.

And if it's the insane NKs playing with a new toy: What kind of drugs are you taking over there? Do you anal-obsessive militarist Fascist monkeys want to breathe enriched god-damned Plutonium for 5K years? Jeezuz Christ on a crutch.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Then there should be a flight plan identifying the craft.

HarryWanger's picture

Did you read and/or look at the site?? It's pretty obvious. Man, this feels like centuries ago nonsense. Hey, newsflash! The moon is not made out of cheese.

cougar_w's picture

MSM shill. Market goon. Goldman bag-man. Shut up.

SheepDog-One's picture

Swamp gas reflected off Yuranus.

centerline's picture

yup.  pretty obvious it is a missile.  no doubt.  can see the rocket engine flare - just like watching a space shuttle launch.

Coast Watcher's picture

Agree on the rocket flare. It can be seen plainly in the video. Oh wait, someone will say it's the sun's reflection off the plane's wings. Besides, NORAD and the Pentagon have already said they were "aware of the launch" after the fact, so that pretty much rules out an aircraft contrail.

Raymond K Hessel's picture

It's a jet contrail as opposed to a missile contrail?  Cass?  Cass?  Cass, is that you again?

cougar_w's picture

NORAD is saying it's a missile. Pentagon is saying they don't know if it's a threat or not.

Shut the fuck up. Fucking troll sleaze. God-damned fucking traitor. MSM shill. Moron. Douche. Market making Goldman pile of crap.

Die.