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Niall Ferguson Video Lecture - "Empires On The Verge Of Chaos"
ForaTV, in conjunction with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, shares another terrific must watch presentation, this time by one of our favorite socioeconomic historians, Niall Ferguson, who in this lecture talks in depth, and with an objective perspective that only few can share, about empires on the verge of decline, emphasizing the precarious position the US has found itself in, now that China's ascendancy is undisputed, and only matched by the accelerating descent of the once great US nation. The fact that Ferguson is Paul Krugman's natural nemesis in all things only makes his insights all that more relevant (not to mention correct). And while the various chapters discuss such key concepts as the limits and implications of complexity theory, the ever increasing portion of US federal revenues attributed to interest payments (surpassing defense spending), China's military sustainability, the limits of Keynesian stimulus, investing in gold and hyperinflationary concerns, the primary highlight is Ferguson's discussion on what may be the primary topic of 2011: whether ot not debt will trigger the collapse of the US. To wit: "Sometime over the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service, than it is able to spend on defense...The Chinese have noticed what the rest of the world's investors pretend not to see: that the US is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course with no apparent political means of self-correcting. Ladies and gentlemen, military retreat from the mountains of the Hindu Kush, or the plains of Mesopotamia has long been the harbinger of imperial fall." Recommended viewing.
From the official presentation:
Throughout history the rise and fall of empires isn't slow or cyclical, as we like to think, but arrhythmic...it mostly happens very, very suddenly. America is a superpower on the edge of chaos, according to economic historian and author Niall Ferguson. U.S. debt levels, he says, and its unwillingness to address the problem, has put it in the same category as other great empires which have collapsed throughout the ages.
Ferguson argues the world is changing. There's the rise of authoritarian China as a super-power; a Keynesian president leading a weakened United States; the re-emergence of democratic India as a great power; the continued decline of Japan; and the probability of continued global economic instability ahead.
Is the rise and fall of empires cyclical or arrhythmic? How does economic profligacy -- whether the result of arrogance or naivety -- contribute to the downfall of civilizations? Not to be missed, the address will offer a timely review of primacy, leadership, and the complex factors behind the rise and fall of great powers and civilizations.
The introuction, which incidentally is the weakest part of the hour long presentation, is below, with an indexed link to each section provided below.
01. Introduction 09 min 09 sec
02. Niall Ferguson Opening Remarks 01 min 40 sec
03. Historical Cycles of Empire Decline 07 min 07 sec
04. Complexity Theory 08 min 20 sec
05. Implications for the United States 06 min 22 sec
06. Interest Payments as a Share of US Revenue 01 min 56 sec
07. Failure of Perception 02 min 43 sec
08. Debt Payment Overtaking Defense Spending 06 min 58 sec
09. Q1: Healthcare Reform 04 min 10 sec
10. Q2: China's Military Sustainability 02 min 38 sec
11. Q3: Gold Investing 01 min 24 sec
12. Q4: Political Stability of China 02 min 42 sec
13. Q5: Children Teaching You About Debt / Radical Islam 03 min 57 sec
14. Q6: Advice to Obama 02 min 40 sec
15. Q7: Limits of Keynesian Stimulus 03 min 46 sec
16. Q8: Better Leadership in the West 03 min 27 sec
17. Q9: Fear of Hyperinflation 05 min 09 sec
h/t asymptotix
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The Bernank can print money to buy the debt issued to service the debt too.
It's PFM.
In The Bernank We Trust.
"China's investment growth is too high, lending growth too fast, liquidity excessive and trade and international payments very imbalanced,'' Wen said at a press conference in Beijing today. Energy efficiency and environmental protection issues haven't been ``properly resolved,'' he said".
-- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, 3/16/2007
I feel better knowing the Chinese are there to backstop Bernanke's reckless ways.
/s
Deficits, bitchez!
"...the ever increasing portion of US federal revenues attributed to interest payments (surpassing defense spending),..."
Whoops...(followed by the sound of progressive memes shattering on the the floor like a stack of dropped plates in a restaurant).
Manager walks over to employee and says..."this is coming out of your meager pay check ya know...clean this mess up kid."
Fuck the manager overlords, OK?
OK.
It is NOT fucking "defense" spending!
Let's call it what it really is: spending on aggressive war, intimidation and military occupation.
While concentrate on the head of this pin...what should we be spending on the other pins?...interest payments...bureaucracy...entitlements...etc.?
The US is a story of entitlements. Since the very beginning.
Wanting entitlements is American.
They (we) will have to do with less...one way or another, either way will be hard. It never should have gotten to this stage.
I suggest everyone take the time to read a story about Rep. Davey Crockett;
"Certainly it is, and I thought that was the last vote which anybody in the world would have found fault with."
"Well, Colonel, where do you find in the Constitution any authority to give away the public money in charity?"
Here was another sockdolager; for, when I began to think about it, I could not remember a thing in the Constitution that authorized it. I found I must take another tack, so I said:
"Well, my friend; I may as well own up. You have got me there. But certainly nobody will complain that a great and rich country like ours should give the insignificant sum of $20,000 to relieve its suffering women and children, particularly with a full and overflowing Treasury, and I am sure, if you had been there, you would have done just as I did."
"It is not the amount, Colonel, that I complain of; it is the principle. In the first place, the government ought to have in the Treasury no more than enough for its legitimate purposes. But that has nothing to do with the question. The power of collecting and disbursing money at pleasure is the most dangerous power that can be entrusted to man, particularly under our system of collecting revenue by a tariff, which reaches every man in the country, no matter how poor he may be, and the poorer he is the more he pays in proportion to his means."
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig4/ellis1.html
Don't get your balls in a bunch about China. Sure its our fault to hand the industrial keys to the kingdom over to an idiot Juggernaut. The big plan is to break China up in to smaller states - that is the real contest for the next 20 years and for the first time China is now reacting domestically to protect itself. Think of this crisis as chemotherapy. Everything gets sick in order to get the cancer under control. Lets hope the Corporations that made their quarterly numbers from turn key manufacturing have enough sense to at least remember how to build machines that make other machines. Also, lets hope Russia doesn't become the escape value for China's domestic problems. If China winds up buying Russian oil at a discount for trade credits, well ... That recent ruble-yuan deal may be the iceberg tip.
"Also, lets hope Russia doesn't become the escape value for China's domestic problems. If China winds up buying Russian oil at a discount for trade credits, well ... That recent ruble-yuan deal may be the iceberg tip."
I'm sure you know, Russia has started the Oil Pipeline to China NOW.
Nabucco was also outflanked by direct pipelines to China and through Russia. The Caspian is within both their spheres of influence - this is the only reason we give a shit about Georgia; the little postage stamp is the only land to Europe from the E. Caspian that is not through Iran or Russia. If we knock off Iran, expect Georgia to go to the wolves. We would trade Russia that for go-along on Iran.
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I learn as much from the articles as the banter
cheers!
The fact that he is british is enough for me to assume that he is a disinfo agent, and is running point for the rothschilds.
His "secret" warnings and predictions are confirmation.
London is the asshole of the world and they took back the colonies via the "Fed" 100 years ago. It's been nothing but wars, and booms and busts ever since.
He's Scottish.
There's no such thing as a Scottish passport. Nor English, Welsh or Northern Irish. Only British.
I never implied that there was a Scottish passport. The Scots, the Irish, and the Welsh are all very different sub-cultures of the UK.
It's kind of like me--a midwesterner by birth vs. an LA Valley person or NYC elitist. So when you lay on a blanket term like that he's a Brit --you lump everyone into one group. I guess all Chinese are alike, all Americans are alike, and all Russians are alike too....gee, what a homogenized way of thinking. Grow up.
Damn, thats too bad, we need a few more countries with Passports.
So is Gordon Brown, the traitor who dumped half of britain's gold reserves into the rothschild's vaults at 250 usds an ounce before "ascending" to 10 Downing Street.
I can't get interested when there is strangeness in the very first sentence; namely, calling the US an empire. The United States is obviously not an empire, it is a nation. Ferguson must be aware of this, so he's either making a gratuitous slap or he's careless with his words, but either way, I'm not interested.
There are no empires in existence today. The last one to fall was the USSR, and everyone concerned is better off, including Russia.
I don't want to be rude but I just don't understand your point.
An empire can exists through influence and not just territorial control.
How can one argue that the U.S. has not influenced other nations to the extent that they imposed a noticeable degree of control over them? Even the USSR had an empire that expanded beyond the physical land often associated with it.
You should look up the word.
Your an EMPIRE when you can cause a cessation of life on the planet, broke or not.
You remain a MAJOR force to be reckoned with.
"Sometime over the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service, than it is able to spend on defense...
"In California, pension costs now crowd out spending for parks, public schools and state universities"
http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20110102/ZNYT02/101023006/1005/spo...
This state is totally screwed.(has been forever)
As if they had no more important things to contemplate, they add nearly 700 new laws in 2010.
Damn commies deserve all they get.Wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire.The UTTER definition of Insanity.
I cannot be out of money, I still have checks!
So, they're "commies" because of all the laws? Fascists don't make laws?
California, for all its problems, is still able to grow a lot of food. Given that food is one of the three primary fundamentals (air is a given), I wouldn't bet long against CA.
How does it grow all this food with no water.. Protecting inch long fish trumps agriculture in the central valley look up the water shut off..
All's well that ends with $2 trillion for failed colonial wars, $1 trillion annually for military-industrial boondoggles, and $14 trillion for failed bankster scams.
Now if you'll excuse me, I've got to go exchange this green confetti for the Three Rs (rubles, real and renminbi).
It's really time this guy actually produce something of substance. Identifying faults with Keynesian thought is becoming a litmus test for intelligence. And there are plenty of professors is much less prestigious universities writing much better stuff on the issue.
His views on gold are sophmoric at best.
He's an historian. What do you want him to produce? The future? Well, that's what he is trying to do here with complexity theory and US data. Jeez.
His comment on Gordon Brown was funny regarding gold--and spot (pun intended) on. And 10% of assets in the shiny metal isn't that out of line. Most of my family, including myself, are at the 10-15% mark because there's no such thing as a sure thing. But then again, most of the family assets are in very rich farmland also abundant in other natural resources and has been since 1976.
Actually, there is one sure thing: currency debasement, if not eventual collapse, particularly in the face of astronomically large, unpayable and exponentially-growing government debt.
strange that ferguson implies this strongly while at the same time saying that hyperinflation is hard to produce. chinese net seller of us gov debt - check, continually increasing deficitis and interest payments - check, likelyhood of a sudden change in sentiment, check. he still believes somebody may do the right thing in time. and all the while not commenting on the nature of the financial/banking system in general. we shall see.
He is a part of establishment, so he cannot publicly say we are "fucked" -- run for the exits as fast as you can.
Thanks for sharing this Tyler.
This is an old (nonetheless interesting) presentation from Niall. You're running late at ZH. I'll give a nod next time. ;)
Please no, it will only be worse..........if possible.
Read his book years ago - he is a brilliant historian BUT I agree with the link to the Rothschild's.
Insidious bastards...the Brits still rule the world just don't publicize it.
Rule Britannia...
Once I started watching Ferguson I was so riveted that I couldn't hit the escape button. Surely he's dead correct when he talks about financial crises striking like lightening. Whatever you may think of him, he's a compelling speaker and performer. It's certainly one of the best lectures I've ever heard, just in terms of theatre and content. Very glad ZH posted this.
Glass-Steagall can wipe much debt and in some segments totally wipe out the debt we hold. No that doesn't mean 0 national debt. But the reality is, if we play our cards right, we can have great projects underway as I've and others have described before, AND have about 1/2 our national debt as a rough guesstimate. Imagine that, real productive programs generating wealth, meanwhile on 1/2 the total debt or thereabouts.
Only a dream right?
Well as long as we live in bizarro monetary world run by the like of idiots such as; Paul Krugman, Ron Paul, Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Paul Volcker (as if his early 1980's solution was the right one...it wasn't..just worked better than the current, albeit with unneeded pain), Alan Greenspan, and any Keynes/Austrian monetarist school of scumbag non-thought....then yes, it would be a dream, but only because we allow the above fucktards to rule our roost.
The fight isn't over how to pay debt.
The fight is over the belief system that tells us we can only take out debt, from private banksters, and must pay it all back, including gov't bailouts, if we can't.
Now for a little question.
What is the thing that binds these two together.
You have one school of thought that says print money ala Keynesian to pay off debt.
You have another school of thought that says implement brutual deadly austerity if need be to allocate the money to pay of the debt.
But what is the like thought process both MONETARIST schools of thought would have you believe.
.................That the debt has to be paid off...........................that the debt was LEGITIMATE in the first place...................and somehow someway you must pay it off.
Either with one schools way of printing, or the other schools way of cutting to the bone, none of the schools actually addressees whether or not the debt itself was legitimate and necessary.
You are making the determination that the opportunity cost to whoever is left stranded in lieu of paying for bogus debts is not important. In fact, the current rage amongst the monetarist schools, the Austrian school of thought, makes it all too clear, paying debts off is more important than American lives. Talk about anti-american thought processes.
Plus when you invest, in capitalism, sometimes you lose.
But no, we have to save the 'debt'. That is the most important thing in a monetary system. Debt.
What is it in America, when Americans truly believe and act in a true American spirit? People.
Debt over people = monetarist scumbag anti-american
People over debt = American thinking
SO like Capital One asks.....what's in your wallet? (you might find it intellectually bare)
Well, yes...but how do we implement all this? All 3 branches are captured by the corporate powers, and I don't see that changing much right now. Granted, if the job situation deteriorates much further, anything is possible.
better late than never -
i like Niall the Great; with his sense of humor he made it easy for me to rewatch it again...thanks Tyler!
Ha Ha Ha - Australia the great outpost of western civilisation !
Ripping out ones regolith and feeding into Asian furnaces is not capital creation Niall my boy.
As for his sudden collapse idea - what tosh ,
I was under the impression that the assassination of JFK by the fathers of his friends was the beginning of the end for the US.
And if you want the Gold it is no longer in them there hills
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmbuSR-fOZM
I guess that was why the Rothschilds killed the space program - their Gold would become the new silver !
I've read and like Ferguson but this is evidence he's read & understood Ubiquity (http://www.amazon.com/Ubiquity-Catastrophes-Happen-Mark-Buchanan/dp/0609...) by Mark Buchanan.
First post after about a month of lurking:
I've read both volumes of Ferguson's Rothschild family biography.
Was drawn in by both the financial aspects of such a successful private bank, and also the Jewish traditions they adhered to when other bankers were converting to Christianity.
I haven't had a chance to watch Niall's presentation yet, work computers have no flash or soundcards.
Regarding his Rothschild treatment, I considered it honest and transparent. He even confronts a number of acknowledged suspicions, such as their working towards the outbreak of wars in Europe. In fact, as bond holders of multiple European governments, it was in their interest to preserve peace so as to safeguard their vulnerable capital.
I will admit the treatment after about 1910 trails off to nothing, as if somehow they suddenly lost all business acumen and had their fortune dwindle away.
I realize this is when the Federal reserve was being implemented.
well, the Family still lives pretty large; all those palaces didn't build themselves.
Thanks, I'll have to pick those up. I'm fascinated by the period of the US Civil War.
British, Spanish and French armies worked together to invade Mexico upon their default in 1861, but their secondary motive was strongly suspected to be an invasion from the south into the USA on the side of the Confederacy. The banks were in the middle of it all. Russia put their Navy ships in US harbors on both American coasts at Lincoln's request to warn them off.
Most of it is all scrubbed from the history books.
Take a look at the California Military Museum's website. There are some records that describe the AU / AG shipments from SF to NYC that were used to overcome the dwindling specie in the south. The confederacy had designs to prevent these shipments but as far as could be told, the closest they got was on a backhaul from NY that yielded zero.
CA for the most part was Union leaning but even in the goldfields and smaller settlements pockets of resistance and squirmishes occurred. California's gold and the Comstock's silver bullion contributions to the success of the Union forces cannot be over emphasized and is hardly ever mentioned. Shameful imho.
Could you provide some sources for this. I have read a lot of history and have not heard about any of this. I am not saying it is not true but I would like to read up on it.
Everyone complains about the interest on the debt, even me. Then one day I woke up and realized that I was collecting some on that gravy train too. It isn't just foreigners who rake it in. buy bonds and stop whining. heh heh [/troll]
The above presentation, ch 2 to 9.. is golden. Most of the historical economic data on the Empires of the past, show exactly the data that draws similar conclusions. And a number of books on complexity by people who study it illustrate the exact behavior in terms of life cycle that NF highlights. While there are often patterns that may seem that a complex system follows a certain order, the changes are almost always absolutely chaotic , asymmetric and unexpected.
Sent a link to everyone I knew, thank you TYLER.
"Empires on the Verge of Chaos" -- Niall Ferguson. A phraseology riff equal to Keith Richards on quitar.
Well at least he didn't say that history is like a computer program or that it is fractal. Seems like whatever the current rage is dictates how one thinks about everything else. However, this complex systems business is an example of how something that is really interesting when applied in a rigorous scientific context turns into a collection of buzz words and fuzzy thinking when extended wholesale to non-quantifialble domains such as history. He was probably borrowing ideas from Prof Tainter, unless my chronology is wrong.
There are two mathematians who come immediately to mind who are perhaps the most qualified to judge whether such a translation of domains is plausible: Vladimir Arnold and John Casti. Sadly, Arnold recently died. John Casti is associated with the Santa Fe Institute as well as the Technische Hochschule of Vienna. He wrote a majesterial work on mathematical modeling called Reality Rules, which incorporates Catastrophe Theory, Cellular Automata, and Dynamical Systems. He does have a lot of illustrations taken from many different domains including speculative problems such as accounting mathematically for the fall of the Roman Empire or for financial collapses. However, these are treated as highly speculative and non-rigorous Gendankenfrage. They are fun to think about but that's about all. They are the frosting on the cake after you have really done the analytical work on real physical applications.
i think the fantasy quotient in physics is getting out of hand a bit maybe, but, inter alia, history is fractal, if not necessarily a deliberate algorithm per se....lmao.... i can only say that here and at the gay bar down the street and sort of getaway w it.
Ferguson is not an economist, good, and almost too much of a historian in correlation of predicting the future based on pasted events, not so good. He really should be identifying what is different this time around for the US. He will not find clarity looking in a history book, or reviewing CBO data.
I would submit that Japan is not a good benchmark. Mainly in, for now, its currency is not part of the world reserve and the debt dynamics are very different.
However, I do like to listen to Ferguson. But, more from an inside perspective of the academic world, and how this world influences politics. Which, based on his statements about real reform, are completely disjointed. Meaning those who govern do not care about the health of the nation, and are unable to act on behalf of the people. The politicians are either ignorant or complacent. Either way they will not act until crisis.
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As we have discussed many times before, the word inflation is not explained in sufficient manner in order to understand the statement in relation to price or monetary inflation. A handy gray area used to great extent by the FED minutes. Also, many of the concepts surrounding inflation are now out of date. The past cause and affect rely on a foundation that no longer exists. Especially when we atrificially manipulate growth through stimulus at the expense of present and future real investment. Why invest in america when the government policy is one of growth through debasement.
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Many talk about the US as if it is not made up of separate states. The states are the US, not the central government. The states, and the citizens within these states, are responsible for the debts of the nation. But without the means, for now, to monetize debt. The states can ask for loans, but cannot directly debase the currency.
Will the FED openly buy state debt (bonds) when faced with a potential state default? and what are the implications of this to outside investors in Treasuries? if not the FED then another ARRA, but with the same pressure on eventual debt service. The evidence shows that the taxpayer does not benefit from paying tax. The tax is used to pay interest either real or masked by debasement. The bill will come due, and it is one of negative real growth.
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The FED MBS purchase and Treasury loans to the GSEs and FHA and AIG, and ..., is investment to purchase bad debt with taxpayer backed loans. This money should have gone towards improving the nation, especially when the money was borrowed. To waste the money on defaulting debt is beyond reason. I think Ferguson needs to include the real US debt burden in his presentations.
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Without going into too much detail, Ferguson fails to recognize the overall ability, Central and State's, to service debt. It is now a fight for limited resources as tax on labor. With any tax reform, increasing taxes to the point of significance relative to the debt, will not produce the anticipated increase in net revenue.
The real problem with Ferguson's line of thought, is that he has not considered the pressure on the state's or the threat of a currency crisis (funding debt) relative to the interest magnitude. Perhaps we will experince bi-flation, that is, delayed monetary and stimlulus effects (a recognized deflation) combined with commoditiy price inflation.
Ferguson talks about falling off a cliff, but then presents the politically correct and smooth behavior as presented by the CBO. These are inconsistent.
Mark Beck
well i read quite a few of the more negative comments before the lecture and it was rather good indeed. almost didn't watch it so all the more glad i gave it a spin.
whatever ferguson's underlying agenda or motivations, the information and conclusion's presented were very accurate and well reasoned.
only element not covered was the whole parasitic banking/corruption element to the whole mess. kind of important, but still plenty of good stuff to be said without going there.
"The Chinese have noticed ... that the US is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course
with no apparent political means of self-correcting." Niall Ferguson.
"It's a DISASTA'!" Barbra Streisand, (July 8, 2010 Aspen, CO after hearing Niall Ferguson explain Obama's economic path)
Well, it's a disaster but I don't think it's even a political fix that's needed, it's monetary fiat flaw in the world's reserve currency. We were never going to pay the debt, just try to outgrown it forever and hope nobody noticed the king had no clothes.
Interesting point on China slowly unloading US denominated debt instruments. Do they know something? Is this why Tiny Timm keeps making trips to Beijing begging them to stop selling and keep buying more paper? Could this be the reason the QE 2, 3, 4 , ad nauseaum won't stop as China ain't playing the game any longer?
Ferguson makes good points and even if he is someones "bag boy" he keeps it well hidden.
Though it might be more or less the same thing behind it, what I believe is happening is that the percent of total Treasury debt owned by the Chinese is declining. Some of this is due to not rolling over maturing paper, and some due to the fact that new issues are being absorbed by Bernanke. Thus the total debt outstanding is larger, but with Ben doing all the buying (often taking a whole week to let a new issue ripen), just sitting on their hands makes China's percent of total ownership fall.
Good points, thanks. I still think that the Chinese see what Bernanke is doing which makes them a little nervous on the future value of US Treasuries.
Agreed.
Fergusen's contention that the MIC will fall before other programs is incorrect, though his contention that the current course is unsustainable is not so much mistaken.
In effect, the plutocrats have killed the goose with the golden eggs. They have pillaged the environment, robbed the treasury, and built a war machine of destruction instead of a peace machine of production.
For example, the nation's physical infrastructure has been sacrificed to pay for war and financial plunder. The roads, rails, electrical grid, sewage systems, dams, levees, water pipelines, and bridges have not been maintained, repaired, or replaced as needed. According to professional engineers, trillions of dollars are needed just to bring the systems up to minimal standards. Trillions and trillions more to upgrade to world-class.
The mal-investment in militarism and financial scheming has ruined the economy, the society, and the political system.
The MIC has too much clout. Over a trillion dollars yearly of the economy is DIRECTLY tied to the MIC. They will not just "fade away".
On top of that there is indirect economic backing; the MIC is a crucial enforcement tool for the oil and finance syndicate (think petrodollar & pipelines).
The elite are not going to peacefully trust the retention of their exorbitant wealth and power to the will of the ruled (aka "mob" in their eyes).
good points. when he talked about the scaling down of the MIC it raised a bit of an eyebrow. i think this is unlikely to happen without a fight, quite literally. additionally, unemployment would grow even more if that area of the gov was to scale back operations. think of all the otherwise unemployable people enrolled in the military.
infrastructure is another crucial element that you mentioned. ferguson talks as if austerity alone, without focused policy on elements of the physical economy, is enough to solve most of amercia's problems. it is not. it just means all the wealth remains concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. all the more troubling if china continue to buy up raw material producing assets. meanwhile, US gov spends the rest of their funny money propping up a parasitic financial system.
To be fair, historically there is some correctness to what Ferguson says about money being a source of growth.
But this doesn't forgive the evils enacted by lenders throughout the ages.
It is *completely* true (although unpopular here) that societies who engaged in fractional reserve banking grew much faster than those who did not. (Seriously -- if you want to argue that, please take off your tie-dye and put down the joint). But that's not the issue, really. The issue is that leverage historically cut both ways. Take big gambles with leverage and you could make millions. But you could also lose millions.
Nowadays, the problem is that those who make millions on the way up, also tend to make enough political connections to force the losses onto the non-bankers on the way down. Which is exactly what has happened here.
If the TBTF banks, had well, "F'd" -- then I think we'd all be raising our glasses to the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. But what we got was heads we win, tails you lose. And that's where Ferguson is disingenuous.
I would take issue with that statement, and even if true, the (dubiously beneficial) ends do not justify the (fraudulent) means. Multiple and mutually exclusive claims to the same asset ARE and always will be fraud, pure and simple. I am amazed at the ferocity of those who vehemently (and vainly) try to argue otherwise --- but given the vast financial benefits flowing to those who thereby continue to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest of society, perhaps I should not be amazed at all.
Have you ever asked yourself WHY we repeatedly have had banking runs and panics for the last couple of centuries, but never have "grocery store panics", or "shoe store panics", or "new car panics", or "home builder panics", or "airline ticket panics", or "medical care panics"? Because none of those services and businesses, unlike fractional reserve banks, issue claims to their underlying assets in excess of those assets! This fundamental and highly inconvenient truth is routinely ignored by the partisans of financial chicanery in the guise of fractional reserve banking.
PS: I hate tie-dye anything, and never smoke pot.
Straw man alert.
Straw man alert.
You're setting me up to be the moral proponent of a historical fact.
I never argued for the moral correctness of fractional reserve banking. I pointed out an inarguable historical fact (as did Ferguson).
You wrote: "I would take issue with that statement, even if true". (that sentence alone forms the setup for a straw man argument, as you have admitted the possible veracity of my statement, but are now proceeding to change the subject of what is being argued, because you have a moral platform -- which I actually share)
What is being discussed: Societies who historically engaged in fractional reserve banking saw faster economic growth than those who did not. This isn't a moral issue, but a point of history.
Another apologist for the nightmare who is the American empire, which must be saved at all costs. If not we lose the real apple pie, and the freedom for worldwide exploitation and domination: "Iran is a satinist plot against your children, Churchhill was a great man, the US only wants the best for our tribe."
"Sometime over the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service, than it is able to spend on defense..
tell me something i don't know!!!
http://theopeningrange.blogspot.com/
it's deflationary even though bernanke tries to pop it up. it will remain so until the RMB appreciates.
http://peterschiffchannel.blogspot.com/2010/12/peter-schiff-how-to-understand-us.html
Ferguson says its harder to gernerate inflation than it may seem because of a deflationary sentiment. John Williams says its harder to generate deflation than it may seem because the banks, in the case of a home that is already built, can't extract that money back out of the money supply. For me this pushes the "Biflation" argument to the top in my thoughts, and points to only Gold and Silver as a store of wealth.
Ferguson the academic then states that we we will not have a Hyperinflation because there is more to the "Western World" than the currency, there is the rule of law and property rights. This guy is a Harvnerd prof and he wants to talk about the rule of law is the USA and property rights?? The biggest fraud in the history of the world goes down and no one goes to jail as property right are pissed on, and this asshat points to these as what will hold us up. Quite the contrary, if there is no confidence in the "rule of law" an unbacked currency becomes all the more fragile.
I watched the entire video. I suggest that everyone do it and reserve their comments until they have. I also suggest that many of the above comments were made without doing so.
I have also read The Ascent of Money from beginning to end. Ferguson is no apologist for central bankers, the Bilderbergers, or the Rothschilds. He is warning of the very real likelihood of economic collapse if we continue on the same fiscally irresponsible path that we are on now. That is one of the central themes that we explore relentlessly on this website. I have heard Ferguson speak various times, including numerous appearances on television. He is clearly a fiscal conservative and is warning us of making the mistakes of history that have always lead to disasters in the past.
Ferguson gives us some things to look for as we move forward to recognize when that collapse may be imminent, based upon other empires that have collapsed.
I am glad -- even grateful -- for what Ferguson has said in this speech, and I will continue to listen to what he says in the future.
Enjoyed... Thanks ZH
He appears to point to a reliance on the status quo that he also warns against.