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Watching the Second Coming at the New York Hard Asset Conference
Attending the New York Hard Asset Investment Conference as a keynote speaker last week, I learned that the people who inhabit this world are different from you and I. They camp in remote, mosquito infested swamps, risking hepatitis or dysentery, or 100 degree below zero temperature in the frozen wastelands of the north. The mines in which they toil present dangerous and claustrophobic working conditions in unbearably hot deserts and stifling jungles.
They do this in the world’s most corrupt countries where they will happily expropriate your holdings and throw you in fetid, stinking jails if the required “consulting fees” go unpaid. They do all of this so when you shake their hardened, calloused hands with red dirt under their fingernails and you look into their darkly tanned faces they can tell you with the fervence of a religious zealot that the value of their metal, ore, mines, exploration rights, or stock price is about to take off like a rocket.
Perhaps it was appropriate that gold hit a new all time high during the conference, which explained why so many of the visitors seemed to be floating by on a cushion of air. These were the hard core faithful who suffered a 20 year bear market in hard assets, and even hung on during the dark days when gold plumbed the depths to $260/ounce in 1999, and were now witnessing the second coming.
The gold and silver coins dealers were there in force with their usual patter and free lotteries. There were a number of new Canadian mining companies raising money for an IPO or a secondary on the back of their latest findings in the field. The uranium and yellow cake producers were waxing eloquent about the nuclear power boom in China and the coming renaissance in the US (click here for my piece at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/December_21__2009.html ). The poster child for the conference had to be the rare earths and the reopening of the old Molycorp mine at Mountain Pass, California (click here for my earlier piece at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/May_3__2010.html ), despite the small $1.4 billion size of the global market.
After delivering my speech, where I put the long term bull market for all hard assets in a global context, I spent many hours manning the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s table at the Times Square Marriot conference, taking on all comers. What I heard was fascinating.
I have learned the hard way that telling everyone that I sold all of my real estate in 2005 and put the proceeds into gold is a great way to get conspicuously uninvited to future dinner parties. I never hear about anyone else doing the same. By the conference at least 30 others told me they made the same bet. I received no end of tips about better than expected assay result from exploratory core drillings in British Columbia, Chile, and Gambia.
All in all, it gave a great overview on many key commodities and precious metals that are in long term bull markets. There are few sure things in life, but one for me is that I will be attending the next Hard Asset Investment Conference in San Francisco November 21-22, 2010 (click here for the link at www.hardassetssf.com/), which is free for all comers.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on the “Today’s Radio Show” menu tab on the left on my home page.
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Can anyone tell what was the metal that James Dines predicted to be in a new super bull market during that conference?
Madhedgefundtrader - I sold all my equities in 2005 and put about 1/3 of my cash into gold at $535 - not as good a trade as yours dumping real estate, as I watched equities climb and climb for a few more years. I put about 1/2 my remaining cash into gold in 2007 about $750. Fortunately I told people about it and they mostly felt sorry for me missing all that stock market froth. Especially in 2008 when gold dipped again. But it has been pretty sweet since then.
I don't bring it up anymore, but people do ask if I'm still in. Still get dinner invitations, but probably lost some on my vehement anti-Bush/Cheney stance.
Thanks for the info on the Nov 2010 conference in San Francisco. I live nearby and will plan to be there.
Good stuff, MHFT. I attended that conference in NYC from '05-07 before I left the states, and met a lot of good people there.
I'm a long-time gold bug (and persuaded both parents to sell their houses and buy gold in '06 - I had none to sell so bought LEAPS puts on IYR), but I suspect that we've topped for at least several months. DSI bullishness has been running over 95% for 2-3 weeks and I can't find a bear anywhere. If this is the start of another big downdraft in risk appetite, I wouldn't be surprised to see $600 again. Of course, if gold is $600 the Dow should be 4000.
I'd rather be a commodity bull, since I've just launched a website with a database and screener with resource data on most of the world's mining companies, but the only things I'm bullish on now are cash and Treasuries.
-Speculator
http://miningalmanac.com
I don't know if I mentioned it before in another thread where you are promoting your site, but I really like the site. Thank you for creating it.
Thanks. Glad you like it.
"I sold all of my real estate in 2005 and put the proceeds into gold is a great way to get conspicuously uninvited to future dinner parties."
How ironic. My wife got a call from the hostess of a dinner party we were at a few weeks ago (in mid-April) to tell my wife that other attendees thought I was too much of a "downer" when their husbands asked me about my thoughts on "the markets."
I informed the others that a Euro plunge was coming and that I had gone long with some gold and silver bullion as a partial hedge.
My wife then squawked at me for unnerving the other husbands who told their wives and got the wives worried about their personal investments. My wife also said to me, "No more capital markets talk at these parties, or we may be taken off the guest lists."
My response was, "They asked, and so I told them the truth. (but they could "not handle the truth!")
Every time I get in the car, I'm simply dumbfounded at the things other drivers would rather do than just step on the gas and get where the f--- they're going.
Likewise, it's amazing the things people would rather do than just listen to the truth and make money. I feel good when I make money. Other people apparently feel good when they lose it...
I was asked a long time ago not to discuss 'these things' with others because they thought I was crazy.
Then I noticed that some people had stopped talking to me. Now the same people ask me where I get my information from... what sites I visit.... why don't "these things" appear on TV. :)
My wife is happy because now I let her buy gold jewelery. no diamonds though.
Damn Carl, stop with doom and gloom already. You are missing desperate housewives and the Donald Trump show.
Welcome to the club Carl. You will learn to keep your mouth shut!
One has to question the collective wisdom, and sanity, of any society in which the general opinion is that the truth is considered to be "gloom and doom".
The truth is NEVER the enemy of the good!
Veritas odit moras - Truth hates delay
"Truth fears nothing so much as concealment, and desires nothing so much as clearly to be laid open to the view of all. When it is most unadorned, it is most lovely and powerful." - Richard Sibbes 1577-1635
Very, very true.
What I learned that day and previously took for granted, is that Ivy-league educated individuals in our society become ostrich-like or child-like in their behaviors, when one discusses that their wealth may be taken away from them!
In many ways, it is the same reaction as the protestors in Greece. Pull the entitlement rug out from under their expectation, and all hell breaks loose.
tsk tsk applying mental atomic wedgie is not permitted.
p.s. don't go back they have bad "energy" LOL!
by the way, guys, that's 10K oz, that is gonna be taken away and never darken your little doors again....
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh just got 1K oz of silver FOR DELIVERY at 17.99....
thanks Comex. thanks.
And the current manipulation is pointless, it is beyond the point of no return, what is going to happen will happen at some stage. Pushing down silver and gold just helps us all load up at cheap prices. Thanks.
I think it should be obvious to all by now that the function of the CTFC has been to ensure that the manipulation can happen free from interfrerance, so they remain entirely inactive, except when it suits to give the impression of paying attention.
It is impossible for them to be ignorant for such a long time and remain inactive.
The CTFC will do nothing to intefere with the current corruption of gold and silver, even though it is obvious. They are part of the corruption.
The only time they will leap into action when it is obvious all is lost and they need to be seen on the job, to protect themselves.
The CTFC is of course a disgrace. Like most of the regulatory bodies now.
Just so we all know, it looks like JPM is working the market toward the 1180 mark on gold for the Monday Comex expiry.....
Here's the breakdown of Call options on Gold due to expire on 25th:
Price #Calls
1100 7,105
1150 4,976
1200 18,103
1250 4,781
1300 5,306
1400 6,227
1800 5,814
Not that anyone at the CTFC is going to do anything about this, but...
whatever, the buys at that point should be beyond breathtaking.
Interesting, where do you get that information? Thanks!
I think the cats out of the bag worldwide on them and people are going to buy and take there gold and go home no matter what the markets say, same with silver. They are now working against themselves by reducing the pricing.
could not agree with you more. adding to my gold and silver stockpiles at every 10 bucks down in gold, and every ten cents down in silver. question is, how long are there going to be supplies? one dealer i work with is already out.....
but that aside, the sheer, staggering breathtaking corruption of our markets! and that the CTFC is sitting there quietly is just appalling.....what do those guys do all day? watch porn like the SEC? clearly they are all angling for desks with 10M annual bonuses attached at JPM.
its mindboggling that we've come to this, or that anyone would think of trading at the Comex.
Trading paper gold is one thing, owning the physical is another. The premiums are there for good reason on the physical, promises are cheap.
My humble five cents (adjusted for today's CPI). It is fine to gamble at the COMEX, just do not invest there. For the basic purpose of gambling any casino is fine.
these guys should know how corrupt our metals markets are....today the manipulation has been way beyond breathtaking.....
but the CTFC...on the JOB!!! yes indeedy. wonder if they have a super duper high speed connection for their porn over there?