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We Must Remove BP from the Crime Scene and Let an International Team of Experts Fix This on BP's Dime
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BP was criminally negligent in drilling the well which blew out. See this,
this,
this,
this,
this,
this,
this,
this,
this,
this, this,
this,
this,
this,
this
and this.
It has bungled everything it has done since. Indeed - as discussed
below - it has made things worse.
And BP has tried to cover up its blunders by lowballing the spill
estimates, keeping
reporters out of areas hardest hit by the oil (and see this,
this
and this)
and threatening
to arrest them if they try to take pictures, hiding dead birds and
other sealife, telling cleanup workers they'll be fired if
they use respirators, and using dispersants to hide the amount of
spilled oil (the dispersants are only worsening
the damage caused by the spill).
Given the enormous stakes (don't forget that we are starting a
potentially "extremely
active" hurricane season), why are we letting BP continue to be in
charge of the containment operations?
Remember, there is probably damage
beneath the sea floor. A
misstep by BP could make
things much worse.
Drilling relief wells is extremely
difficult.
As I wrote
on June 5th:
Many technical experts have said
that the first attempts to complete the relief well in August could miss entirely on the first try,
as it is difficult to intersect the blown-out well at the precise
location and angle needed.As PBS notes:
Several
experts have compared [intersecting the leaking well with the relief
well] to hitting a target the size of a dinner plate two miles
underground.***
The ... challenge is to exactly intercept the original well
bore, which is only about a foot across. If they miss on the first
attempt, they'll need to back up slightly, plug the hole they just
made, and try again. Each attempt could take several days. [David
Rensink, the incoming president of the American Association of
Petroleum Geologists] says that the chances that they'll hit the well
bore correctly on the first try are "virtually nil."
"If
they're within 20 feet of it, that would be pretty good," he says.
However, each attempt will reduce the uncertainty and get them closer,
and Rensink says that he's "very certain" that the relief well will work
eventually.
"The reason is that they're going to keep at it
until they make it work," he says.If the current
relief wells fail, it could be until December
or early next year until a correctly-positioned relief well can be
completed.
Indeed, ABC News implies that even after the
relief well is completed, the Gulf oil may keep on flowing for months.
Specifically, ABC points
out:Past experience in the Gulf of Mexico has
been sobering. In 1979, a Mexican-owned rig called Ixtoc-1 suffered a
blowout and collapsed, and 140 million gallons of oil escaped into the
water. Pemex, the Mexican oil company, drilled two relief wells --
and even then oil kept escaping for
three months after the first one was finished.Similarly,
MSNBC writes:
If the [Ixtoc] disaster serves as a precedent, the BP
spill could continue even after the two relief wells are expected to be
finished in August.
And
Spiegel reports
today that there are many dangers with completing the relief wells:
Independent
experts warn that relief wells, like any well, are not without risk. "More oil could leak than before, because
the field is being drilled into again," says Fred Aminzadeh, a
geophysicist at the University of Southern California. Ira Leifer, a
geochemist at the University of California in Santa Barbara, voices
similar concerns: "In the worst case, we would suddenly be dealing with
two spills, and we'd have twice the problem."
***
Leifer
is a member of a team of experts deployed by US President Barack Obama
to estimate the volume of oil currently flowing in the Gulf of Mexico.
***
BP's most recent efforts to stop the flow of oil have only
made the situation worse, says Leifer. The engineers' attempt to seal
off the well from above, using a method known as "top kill," failed and
only enlarged the borehole, according to Leifer. Now, he adds, there
is almost nothing stopping the oil from flowing out of the well.
***
As straightforward as it sounds, this approach [i.e. killing a spill
by drilling relief wells] has not always been easy to implement in the
past. The disaster in the Timor Sea, for example, ended in a debacle.
It took engineer five tries to even find the borehole under the sea
floor. Shortly before the end, the West Atlas oilrig went up in
flames, after all.
Repeat of History?
Another
case is also a warning sign for BP. In June 1979, engineers with the
Mexican oil company Pemex lost control of the Ixtox I, an
exploratory well in the Gulf of Mexico. Just as BP is now attempting to
do, engineers at the time drilled two relief wells.
***
Is
history repeating itself? The spill in the Macondo oil field could
also continue to gush uncontrollably well beyond BP's August deadline.
Pemex Director Carlos Morales, currently providing BP with technical
advice, expects the spill to continue for another "four to five months."
Leifer also believes that the disaster on the sea floor could drag on
"until late fall."
Although the BP engineers have already
completed two-thirds of the first relief well, it is extremely
difficult to find the out-of-control well in the middle of the bedrock,
says David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of
Petroleum Geologists.
"You're trying to intersect the well bore,
which is about a foot wide, with another well bore, which is about a
foot wide," Rensink said recently. Hitting it with the first attempt,
he adds, "would truly be like winning the lottery."
Instead, the
engineers will presumably have to repeatedly pull back the drill head
to adjust the direction, Rensink predicts. "If they get it on the first
three or four shots, they'd be very lucky."
More Caution
Rensink is
particularly concerned that BP, in
drilling the relief wells, will penetrate into precisely those rock
formations in which extreme pressure and temperature conditions
facilitated the April blowout in the first place. Gas bubbles and
gushing oil from the depths are real possibilities. "Any relief or kill
well needs to be drilled with more caution than the first well," Donal
Van Nieuwenhuise, a geologist at the University of Houston, told the
New Orleans daily Times-Picayune. "You don't want a repeat performance."
***
Indeed, the engineers aren't only facing a formidable technical
challenge. Weather will also play a significant role. Forecasters have
already predicted that this hurricane season, which began this month,
could be one of the most active on record. Drilling would have to be
ceased for the duration of each strong storm.
Government
spokesmen have said that BP's technical knowledge and equipment are
superior to the government's. But that is misleading.
The U.S. government might not have expertise, but many private companies
do. For example, Norway's Statoil is the largest
offshore operator in the world, with enormous experience in
deepwater drilling. Chevron, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell and other
companies also have substantial experience in such operations.
These companies are not without their own - although smaller - history
of spills. But BP's safety record is the worst. See this,
this, this
and this.
And because other companies don't have a huge, direct
legal
and financial interest in trying to underplay this
spill (BP could be fined between $1,100
and $4,300 per barrel of oil released, and oil industry expert Matt
Simmons believes
that BP will be driven into bankruptcy), they will likely be somewhat
more motivated to protect the Gulf and less motivated to try to cover
their backs by hiding the evidence and pretending everything is fine.
Moreover, group-think will likely be less if a diverse team drawn from
different companies is involved, instead of a bunch of guys within the
same company - BP.
Numerous countries have also offered to help. See this, this,
this
and this,
but BP and the U.S. government have rejected their offers.
And the offers from many private citizens - many with
relevant expertise - to help clean up the oil pollution have been
rejected by BP as well.
Indeed, it is no longer just the U.S.
threatened by this catastrophe, but also Mexico,
Cuba,
and possibly many other
countries as well.
The government shouldn't let the knuckleheads who caused the blowout and
have made everything worse drill the relief wells and control the
mitigation and cleanup efforts.
The
White House should, instead, remove BP from the scene of the crime and
appoint an international team of experts to drill relief wells, kill
the spill, and clean up this mess on BP's dime.
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The problem with you fucking trolls around here is that you have flare ups after posting nicely for a while. And then subsequent flare ups.
Fear mongering is what those in power do, not GeoWash.
for those quick to judge , i bet it takes a little effort to put this article together. Thank you George Washington for your ongoing effort to bring a well researched article on our scene, o hey thats right this is YOUR scene and We are visiting.
WW , right on . And there are folks in harms way as those already sickened can attest to. Yet no warnings , and in fact its ok to visit, hey eat the fish the pres says. Lies and coverups are going to get a lot of folks hurt on that bad air coast.
yeah, the government says it's okay to eat what's fished up from the gulf. . . same sociopaths that said it's great to eat high-fructose corn syrup made from GMO corn, puts flouride in the water supply, and sprays us with aluminium & barium, with a cocktail of germ warfare as a chaser. . .
good post merehuman, echoing your defense of George Washington, someone who has been tirelessly on this story from the beginning - your work is much appreciated sir! best wishes.
Flare ups as in herpes? Just asking so I can stay away.
I'm thinking hemorrhoids.
It is great that someone would recommend Statoil as the infallable operation.
Statoil airlifts crews off Snorre after gas leak
http://www.rovworld.com/article425.html
Statoil Shuts Gullfaks C Output as Well Destabilizes http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=azwDlvVH1.E0
PSA Investigates Gas Leak on Snorre A http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=18334
They already got a team of "experts," loads of professors and NASA types. A committee is a camel designed by a horse's ass. Sure, why not, bring on the whole world and turn into a total clusterfuck. That way you get a couple more nails in the coffin of American oil production.
And by the way, which one of you oil haters will be first to give up your Escalade or Sequoia? I recommend investing in bicycle factories.
And I suppose ole Georgie boy here thinks that government will surely do the job better than BP.
I suppose that people who dont have an Escalade or Sequoia, whether or not they hate oil, can easily give up on them.
Investing in bicylcle factories is a tough one since most aren't public. The likes of Gary Fisher, Trek, etc. certainly aren't. I believe Cannondale is publicly traded but has gone nowhere for years. Chine took over bicycle production for many companies years ago.
C-Dale is a subsidiary of Dorel so yeah, but there is other baggage for the socially conscientious.
Having worked in that industry for several years, I can say there are many small time manufacturers (Turner, Yeti, Salsa) made up of guys who start building their own frame. For a relatively small investment, one can make one's own bike manufacturer. From there it is a matter of getting the name out, and making dealsthe biggest expense...components.
A highly competitive industry with little product differentiation (except C-Dale), there may be room for simplicity in a sea of disposable technology with electronic shocks/drive train, power meters, heart rate monitors.
With some of the 2 billion people in India/China trading bikes in for cars, I think there may be a used bike bubble coming....so there is an opportunity to recycle. Works for Waste Management.
Who is going to build relatively cheap US-made aluminum cyclocross bikes when Cannondale leaves the US in the not so distant future?
Anyone heard anything about the soon to be former C'dale employees taking this over?
Your first statement in the post is simply false. The rest is a collection of scare stories. Were you impressed by Hale-Bop too?
The well control operation doing the work on the relief well has hit the target on the first try in the last eight jobs they have been on.
The Top Kill was worth a shot. It has worked on other wells, just not this one. While possible that it increased flow, the rate is going to increase as the obstructions in the well have eroded. Increased flow is somewhat inevitable, with or without Top Kill.
BP stated at the beginning that the only solution was the Bottom Kill with the relief well. They have the logs on the original well and know whaer the 65 ft. production zone is. They can come in higher than that and kill / plug the well.
Using your efforts to hyperventilate on the internet will not improve your reputation (see Matt Simmons).
"Your first statement in the post is simply false."
I agree. the word "criminal" implies intent. It's a stretch for be to believe BP caused this disaster on purpose.
As for "negligent," most certainly.
so glad you can be so calm - what's a few more months of spill anyway? Perhaps they will close it just in time to stop the last 5%. Nothing wrong here. Hell why not do all the wells this way and just open them up into the water and sort it out later
A relief well takes time to drill. If the first intercept attempt is a miss, it will maybe take a week to back up and go again. that is just the way it is.
Normal delivery time for a human baby is about 9 months. It can happen faster if you want an abortion.
Augustus
"Normal delivery time for a human baby is about 9 months."
That would be GESTATION. Which is very different from DELIVERY.
Jesus, if you intend to be snarky at least use the proper terminology.
had the same thought Gully, thanks for saying it in an "out loud" voice!
Here's what looks like a professional analysis of the mathematics of Relief Well drilling. One has a 15% chance of total failure. BP started drilling the 2nd one 2 weeks after the 1st on US goverment orders. Two relief wells have a 5% chance of total failure. A third relief well would push it to 98-99% success rate. Assuming eveything else standard.
A relief well costs $100 million to drill. The spill is causing $200-400 million damage PER DAY. BP's strategy is clearly to save money in every instance... even on the something as strategic as the Relief Wells, baby.
The OP may be a little over the top... but the CONCLUSION is correct. Any competent President would have removed BP from their "crime scene" within a week. But this has NEVER been about the spill... it's been about exploiting a crisis to ram thru some version of Cap & Trade from Day One. Shutting down the entire Gulf is designed to dramatically magnify the Crisis. It won't work, because in the end Obama is an amateur.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6573
IBM management used to figure that 9 women could make a baby in 1 month. This is how our world of armchair quarterbacks thinks..which is even more scarey, than some fuck-up by a small group of managers.
This looks worse every day. Refusing access, rejecting competent assistance, and now the $20 billion escrow that everyone has been screaming for.
The flow hasn't even been stopped yet and it's just the beginning of hurricane season. How could anyone possibly begin to place a dollar amount on the damage?
I'm getting the tremendously uncomfortable feeling that this situation is so much worse than we can possibly imagine.
HE! You haven't seen plan XZ902 yet! Why so negative!
I am not trying to mitigate this disaster but if 140 MILLION gallons were spilled in 1979 and the gulf was fine, why would be worried about this one? This sounds incredibly naive, but where were the effects of that 1979 spill? It had to affect something, no? How could something that enormous be covered up?
Your point is valid. The important ratio is the volumn oil/volumn of water assuming is its dispersed (that is why they are using surfacants/dispersants to prevent the oil from phase separating and ending up on the shore. The volumn of water in the GOM is many orders of magnitude larger than any amount of oil that will be released. In the oceans, it is true, the solution to pollution is dilution. Thus, if most of the oil can be prevented from reaching the surface and forming a phase separated film on the shore, the damage to sealife will indeed be unimportant. So, use of properly chosen surfactants to microscopically disperse the oil (just like when you clean your clothes of insoluble oil using tide) is the proper approach before its smaller density allows to to reach the surface as form a oil film.
The 79 spill was in 160 feet of water.Most of the oil reached the surface where it was burned.In this spill, most of the oil is still in the water.It is orders of magnitude worse because of this.
Covering up is rather easy when people do not want to know.
If you add the possibility that people, by turning a blind eye to the consequences can give themselves an opportunity to make a profit out of the negative consequences of a large scale pollution event, my question is more how can it not be covered up?
People are sensitive to what they want to be. Countless people can stroll in a poor country without noticing poor people around.
Observation requires training. It does not come naturally to most people.
A second point is that the situation has changed. The environment was less consumed thirty years ago.
I dont think it will change point one though. People who dont want to see the consequences of this oil spill wont see them. And the consequences wont be big enough they cant escape them. Other people around the world wont have this chance.
good post, sadly true.
it's hard to "see" what you have no point of reference for.
140MM gallons = 3.4MM barrels. we're running at about 80,000 - 100,000 a day, for 57 days, ah, call it 5MM barrels is already in the GOM and we're just getting started with this party. That spill was all in at 3.4MM, but granted, they probably lied silly about that one too.
Don't you know? That's how we get things fixed around here. Rescuers of the financial crisis were the same fools that caused it for example.
In this case it is Boots & Coots who are drilling these two relief wells and they are acknowledged as the best in the world. As the drill gets nearer the target an electric current is sent out (like a form of radar) and this "narrows down" where to go. Yes it's difficult but these guys have done it many times before.
The well plans will have been agreed by the regulators and have the benefit of knowing what happened during the drilling of the original well so it can be made stronger. You can be sure nobody is taking any short cuts.
BABEL 2010:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/06/deepwater-babel.html