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Week 16 Data Of Treasury Tax Withholdings Is In
We promised we would update the US Treasury individual tax withholdings comparison between 2009 and 2010 by 4 week bucket. Week 16 data is now out and the result is below. It speaks for itself. As for withheld corporate tax, we would discuss that too... if there was anything to discuss.
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oh don't worry, almost nobody has income tax witheld from their unemployment check, so you will see a big uptick next april.
"Everything is gonna be just fine."
- Barry "I'm a Wall Streeter who blogs" Ritholtz
And MJ Perry at Carpe Diem: "Everything's comin' up roses!"
+2
Hate to discuss the undiscussable - but is the trend (yoy) upward or improving from 1st 4 wk period of the year to latest? Don't hate mail me or mistake this as "things are getting better" but seems the rate of deteroriation in revenue and chance for improvement (from very low yoy comps) is there? What does this look like over a longer period (is this truly turning or a false positive?).
Well, keep in mind that March-April of last year was when it looked like the world was coming to an end. The comps for the latest 4 week period should have been easy to beat if "things are getting better, full steam ahead". Even the fact that they are flat or slightly down is (in my opinion) bad news.
ham, facts are facts, we can't ignore em. but yeah, these should be way up b/c year ago was the freakin apocalypse and everyday we hear how great everything is; the chart shows otherwise.
Well what explains the uptick for weeks 9-12?
Stimulus package?
The ARRA is very interesting in what or what it does not do. It looks like pure pork, tax breaks, and state entitlement aid went first and quickly in CY2009. Which is realtively easy in who to send the money.
But, the remaining money, the more difficult, where do we invest to stimulate the economy question. Produced a lot of head scratching from Washington. The result is, they do not know what to do. Or they are being told not to spend.
See:
http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx
Either way it is very interesting how ARRA is progressing. It really looks like entitlements are the primary focus and not jobs. It makes sense that the entitlement piece is completely spent before the other two catagories budge much. It is simple, the states need this money and need it now.
The real question is why don't they just open the flood gates to increase employment? Something else is going on here and it is probably due to the Treasury needing to watch outflows.
Something is definitely strange about the progress of ARRA.
Mark Beck
Without going back to verify the dates - the withholding tables were monkeyed with in 2009 - I believe going live in weeks 9-12 of 2009 as part of the Making Work Pay credit - as tax returns got done this year, retirees with pensions and those with multiple jobs found out that the 09 changes left them owing taxes on their '09 1040s instead of having their usual refunds - I had several clients who changed their w4's and w4p's in early '10 - would explain an uptick - but withholdings are just one part of the revenue equation - quarterly estimated payments are another big chunk - didn't have 1 client in 10 who was paying more this year than last - 9 of 10 were paying less or not having to do them at all this year. NOL refunds for carrybacks will be off the charts this year as well - most of those were no doubt extended past 4/15 as tax practitioners have done those in years - in 15 years, have never done one - I have 4 on my desk - they will collectively represent a few million dollars in refunds.
When you hear of states having problems issuing refunds, the first thing you should do is make sure you are not one of the chumps going forward. That would explain a lot of the W4 adjustment away from the Gov's favor. Folks who ignored the admonition not to use the tax system as an interest free savings account (is there any other these days?) are now seeing an additional downside that has gotten their attention. So that would counterbalance the retirees I would guess.
Recovery FTMFW!!!!!
Don't you just smell the 3% 5yr notes , and the 3.6% 7 yr notes coming for auction this week? Bond market going to force Helicpter Ben's hand to raise rates.
Blame it on "Spring Break 2010"
was the surge because of 2009 bonuses?
Most bonuses get paid in weeks 1 thru 4 at major corps - would most likely be the key to '10 being so far off from 09 - as bad as 08 was, overall tax burdens were amazingly worse in 09 - as measured by the 1040s done in early 10. My perspective is perhaps largely colored by my client base - overwhelmingly retirees - their portfolios did recover value in 09 from the 1/01/09 measurement date - but income as measured by the 1040 was in many cases half of 08 levels, which in most cases were 30 to 40% less than 07. Low interest rates are killing them softly.
"The faster you fall behind, the more time you have to catch-up."
- Glen Celentano -
All this recovery talk is making me hungry. Or is that feel like I live in Hungary? Or Greece? Hell, I'm not sure any more. Pass the Dave's Insanity Sauce please.
Cut the access to the Discount Window and how long can the party continue to rage? The equity culture is dying.. you can't change demographics.
well to hear the pom-pom pollyanna press tell it, the government should be wallowing in so much money it doesn't know what to do with it....
robust recovery, green shoots so verdant that they are growing out of obama's ass, massive stock market gains, huge 2d derivative improvements, blah blah blah....who could forget the euphoria about growth and pe ratios flying to venus because it was a foreward looking indicator?
after all of that prescient forecasting all we have to show for it is a yoy decline in tax withholdings??....what fucktards....
Hey wait a minute. Where are all the "green shoots" I was promised? This doesn't look like green shoots, this looks like crap. But it can't be crap because that would mean our messiah BHO was lying. But if he lies then he can't be the messiah. Wait a minute....I know, the chart's just upside down or something. Yeah, that must be it. Okay, all better now. Time for my meds. I'm soooooo glad we got this little misunderstanding all figured out! BHO not the Messiah, can't fool me!
Hey, isnt that a clearly strong up trend? I can see it! we are in a strong recovery!
On deck and waiting for take-off, the double Dip.......