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Weekend Reading

Tyler Durden's picture




 
  • Russia economy to shrink 7.5% in 2009 according to President Medvedev (BBC)
  • Medvedev: Slump deeper than forecast (WSJ)
  • Andy Xie: Why one bubble burst deserves another (Caijing)
  • Paranoid theories can't take the shine off gold (FT)
  • US States face "unbelievable" revenue shortages (Reuters)
  • October surprise from bank earnings? (MarketWatch)
  • Employers have fewer jobs to offer (WSJ)
  • Central banking: a blight on humanity (FSU)
  • JPMorgan, others to pay $100 million settlement (AP, h/t deadhead)
  • Citigroup hires Mr. Inside (NYT)
  • Steep losses pose crisis for pensions (WaPo)
  • An American fail: the Eastman Kodak tragedy (The Reformed Broker)
  • The speculative bubble in equities and the case for deflation, staglation and implosion (Jesse)
  • Momentum strength emboldens the bulls (Pragmatic Capitalist)
  • The "Democratization of Credit is over" - now it's payback time (WSJ)
  • Currency depreciation and global imbalances (Michael Pettis)
  • Mourning rally (Cassandra Does Tokyo)
 

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Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:03 | 95787 bonddude
bonddude's picture

This all sounds quite deflationary. Russia has dumped oil and gold when broke before.

 

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 04:19 | 96257 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

It's not broke this time around and gold will be the last thing Russia is gonna dump, I would say - long after treasuries.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:05 | 95789 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

if obama can win the nobel, could this jerk possibly win ceo of the year? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14082498/

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:22 | 95794 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

is that jesus i see in the distance? carrying a saddle and a sword? rev. 19:11-16.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:42 | 96078 McGriffen
McGriffen's picture

cue a little John Cash fer us...

"when the man comes around"

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:24 | 95795 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

you're talking Letterman - right?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:18 | 95791 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

-

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:19 | 95792 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

The Bilderberg Group - Does it exist? Is there a Goldman connection?

James A. Johnson

Director Goldman Sachs, Chair Compensation Committee

Mr. Johnson is affiliated with certain non-profit organizations, including ... the American Friends of Bilderberg, the Council on Foreign Relations and The Trilateral Commission, and as an honorary trustee of The Brookings Institution.

and this is what
Muckety

has to say about Mr. Johnson including his connection to the Administration as a member of the VP search committee

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:20 | 95793 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

Its the Reuters story on State tax revenues that I've been following most closely.  Average revenue in Q2 2009 were 18% down on same quarter 2008 and that quarter was down from 2007.

So there's a total fall in state tax revenue of around a quarter since the peak.

 

This doesn't tally with a total 3.6% fall in consumer spending and a total decline in GDP of around 5%.

 

Personally, I believe the state revenue numbers before the numbers that have been through a model

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:14 | 95815 deadhead
deadhead's picture

+100

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:21 | 95855 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

State tax revenues are a great data point to follow as are county receipts.  I also like to watch industrial energy use (echo China) which is down nearly the same amount and of course, the raw rails & truck tonnage numbers.  The data sets provided by these are quite illuminating.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:52 | 95873 deadhead
deadhead's picture

well said miles.

do you have a good source for chinese energy usage?  thanks.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 16:28 | 95965 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I defer to China Trader I think is the avatar. I just surf the HK, Taiwan & mainland media & investment houses and associated regional commentary. I am still a relative neophyte on surfing those particular sets. Remember my previous professional life was focused in a totally different area.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:10 | 95923 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

post up the information or links to the data you follow please.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:19 | 95928 Bearish Spirits
Bearish Spirits's picture

Food stamp cards and programs such as WIC do not require the beneficiary to pay sales tax on anything purchased.  This, along with endlessly extended unemployment benefits, is part of the reason consumer spending hasn't completely collapsed.  An artificial floor is being constructed by the government.

Also consider proposals such as ever-increasing taxes on soft drinks and candy.  Anyone shopping with food stamps will be unaffected, while people who are paying their own way will have to drastically cut back on those items(maybe not such a bad thing).  Hordes of welfare recipients will become the main customer base of Coca-Cola, Pepsico, etc., which will lead to continued health problems amongst the lower class and continuously dwindling tax receipts on those items.

Proposals such as the VAT will have the same effect.  The lower-middle class will be driven onto food stamps concurrent with a "necessary" increase to food stamp allowances, driving sales tax receipts even lower. 

All of this cannot be allowed if we want to retain our freedoms.

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:53 | 96048 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

That is more in line with how many jobs have been lost on a week to week basis in unemployment claims.  530K is bullish.  52x530 is an annual rate of 27.56 million filings a year.  These are eligible people filing.  I think the government says there have been about 1 million jobs lost since June.  I believe these figures point closer to 3 million or more.  State tax receipts are largely income tax and sale tax.  Clearly we are looking at deflation and a decline in GDP in the 10% range.  Nothing jibes with bull claim we have a recovery nor does the continual unemployment claims (revised upward several weeks straight so that the new figure is a larger decline) well in excess of the normal 310K weekly point to the economy getting better.  Bloomberg publishes a chart every week and nothing prior to December 2008 came close to 530K filings. 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 20:23 | 96100 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Good point. And not to mention that every major retail chains have reported year-on-year decline above 10%, some even above 20%. Of course there is always Walmart, but I am not sure I trust the numbers of a zillion-dollar monster who has since stopped reporting monthly sales. Surely Walmart is already part of Uncle Sugar's doctored numbers by now, since it clearly qualify as TBTF.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:26 | 95796 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Great article on Central Banking; I'm looking for gold to go to $1328 as more folks realize the CB'ers have no gold to deliver. The "boyz" are getting cornered now with these side deals for paper. With the China put under the market, their days are finite.  http://tinyurl.com/ylqf7bn

Equal & opposite will be their fate for suppressing the price for so long. Any test of that neckline is a buying op or add point. Long gold & adding. Do you smell the blood?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:45 | 95803 Zombie Investor
Zombie Investor's picture

Any idea of who the "well-heeled market participants" were and was making money their only goal, or did they also want to expose/embarrass JPM, Deutsche Bank, and the central banks?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:19 | 95819 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

just keep in mind, what may appear to be the certain trade, the powers that be will arrange it in such fashion that you will lose on it.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:22 | 95821 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

besides... at the moment they are on their knees drawing pentagrams and praying to satan for guidance. 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:10 | 95955 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

I often wondered what that was all about. ;)

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:15 | 95958 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

I thought that was the universal rocknroll sign.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:31 | 95964 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

MsCreant... i've liked you for some time now. to the sheep... eyes wide shut. these satanists don't even try to hide who they are anymore. http://vigilantcitizen.com/?p=2191

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:33 | 95828 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

You have no faith in the power of trapped, leveraged operators. When the market sniffs out there's nothing behind them, the corner will be played out. IAE, we will see the strength of the shorts on a retest. If they fail, or don't retest, their weakness is revealed. The bond vigilantes made a nice play on treasuries earlier; they were pacified, but they know they are bigger than the CB'ers and can pressure them whenever it is to their interest to do so. Such is the case here; first the test, then the bigger move. The opponents are feeling each other out.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:49 | 95833 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

point taken. i'll look for the trade if it breaks down.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:11 | 95848 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Here's the map; the chart doesn't lie when you analyze the supply/demand situation. Good luck!

http://tinyurl.com/yggv35x

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:22 | 95856 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

thank you for the chart.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:33 | 95904 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thank you for the chart, also.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:41 | 95865 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

That's exactly what they hope you are thinking.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 21:46 | 96136 nobita
nobita's picture

hey gekko, do you know how much money would be needed to buy all the gold in the world?

i am thinking as more people get fed up with paper money they will go into gold and overwhelm the market. peronally i just invest my own money and have about $30k in gold.

but i don´t run a hedge fund. what happens in the guys that do go allin gold?

and thank you for posting, learn so much its not even funny, gonna need a bigger brain soon.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:41 | 95909 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

yea I do, the blood of gold bugs, who being on the cusp of coming through, get crushed by a dollar rally, engineered by the fed to knock gold down enough to come out from under their paper shorts held by JPM, GS. Maybe later down the road a renewed dollar decline. That would be too perfect, the bears having a chance to break even while gold comes down in price enough to start buying in hard.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:30 | 95797 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

obama inc. could learn a lot about transparency from the russians.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:31 | 95798 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703746604574460971679111660.html

 

Lloyd speaks:

He defends all that he considers exemplary about the firm: its disciplined risk taking; that 90% of its revenue and profits are generated in service to clients; that it's not just a giant hedge fund, as some critics say; that it plays a vital social role in matching those who have capital with those who need it; that its partners frequently retire young to devote themselves to philanthropy or public service.

Lloyd lies:

Mr. Blankfein placed some of the phone calls himself. "AIG was being beastly, difficult to deal with, not responding well to our calls for collateral. And I called them up and fought with them, and it was always because they were disagreeing with our 'marks.' They never said, and I never had reason to suspect, 'We're illiquid. We don't have the money.' It never occurred to me."

Lloyd bitch slaps the SEC (and kisses Feds ass):

Mr. Blankfein prefers to emphasize the role of Goldman's self-help initiatives. The firm sped up what he describes as a long-pending application before the Fed to become a bank holding company, allowing Goldman to get out from under its primary regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC's imprimatur, he says, had become worthless after the Bear Stearns and Lehman debacles. "What it looked like at the time was, the Fed had regulated its institutions well, and its validation was a good imprimatur. And the SEC had failed in its supervision, and its validation wasn't good."

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:23 | 95822 etrader
etrader's picture

Its becoming clear that Lloyd is the "architect" behind Hank/Timmy & Ben's bailout/

assistance plans. (Timmy's/Hank's phone records give interesting insights)

Buffet new the score when he jumped in with GS.

 

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:20 | 96317 John Self
John Self's picture

Just as we'll be lucky to have him as Treasury Secretary in 2016.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:15 | 95816 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Of course he would kiss the Fed's ass... they have money and the SEC has none... good article Lizzy... and yes Lloyd seemed to have saved the world... it goes to show how essential an top-notch public relations team can be.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:19 | 95818 deadhead
deadhead's picture

that was the weekend interview...i wrote a piece about it and submitted as a contributor piece but don't know if it will be published.

i understand the point about kissing Fed ass, but the SEC comments were most interesting, i.e. if I was blankfein, i would follow mom's old rule that if you don't have anything good to say about someone, shut the phuck up!

also, check out the "goldman is validated cuz of Buffett's bet". Gee, do you suppose Buffett had one of those phone calls from the fed, treasury complex about throwing in some coin and we'll backstop you? 

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:57 | 95839 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

I betcha Buffett had a few phone calls from everybody :-)

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:11 | 95850 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

I wonder if the SEC will ever charge him with Insider Trading???

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:16 | 95854 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

I think a new definition for insider trading needs to include that it's only insider trading if you are on the outside... otherwise for the shakers and movers on the inside please knock yourselves out and turn out the lights when you are done.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:24 | 95857 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

+!.  That's the ticket.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:37 | 95863 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Unless your bad boy Marky Cuban..

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:45 | 95944 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

 

The Executive branch in action.  Or business discussing congress critters.  Hurrumph.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-cje17OGnQ

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:00 | 95877 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Yeah, I bet nobody will be calling him in the very near future.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:21 | 95820 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

a most interesting article and quite a coup for Goldman's PR department - Mr. Jenkins has walked a fine line acknowledging the various innuendo directed towards Goldman, while at the same time serving as an apologist for both Lloyd and GS - Jenkins concludes:

"It's no use blaming Goldman for this. Only Washington can fix too big to fail by creating a credible liquidation regime to convince creditors that government won't just bail them out. Lenders then might lose their appetite for enabling the kinds of firms that cause regulators and policy makers to lie awake at night."

and while he points out early in the article that Washington is infested with Goldman Alumni, Jenkins fails to mention Goldman's political contributions. He deems those who would suggest that Goldman played more than a passive role in the crisis as people who subscribe to "conspiracy theories" and view the world through the lens of Hollywood.

 

My take away from this article is that Goldman was an (innocent) bystander who happened to be in the right place at the right time. 

 

 

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:16 | 95853 McGriffen
McGriffen's picture

interesting...not really.  There are no hard questions being asked...may as well be a Larry King interview.

Hardly innocent...don't believe me?  I've got aaa-rated MBS I can sell to you whilst I short the very same mbs without your knowledge.  And I'm shorting becuase i know them to be shite, but you can help yourself.

As for the AIG situation...LEH creditors have taken a significant hair-cut & rightly so.  But goldman & others (DB, for one) are made whole...the math don't fly.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:28 | 95859 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

That is what makes this interesting.  Often, more can be learned by who is doing or saying what, where and when than being concerned with the why. This piece by Blankfein himself with the WSJ playing t-ball with him at this particular juncture speaks volumes as to the nature of the environment from the GS perspective.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:17 | 95891 McGriffen
McGriffen's picture

er, id find it more compelling if he was interviewed by Huffpo or Taibbi at RS.  May as well had Kudlow asking those questions.

GS is good at making money...they aren't good for humanity in any Mother Teresa sense. Unless you owned a deli 2 blocks away.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:20 | 95930 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Most inquiring minds would.  The fact that can be discerned here is that Blankfein believes it as well which is why he and his firm and its backers chose this particular pathway, conveyance & message at this time.

Big time poker tell.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:02 | 95917 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

the interesting point is that they got to Holman Jenkins

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:22 | 95931 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed.  Even if the attempted message later is "equal time".

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:55 | 95836 Marley
Marley's picture

Mr. Blankfein, while reading your "true confessions" interview in the fox street journal, I get the impression your living the Snow White reality.  Bambi and the rabbits are giggling in the corner, hiding their eyes while you walk by petting the little birdies.  Thank Charleton Heston your alive and always putting our country's interests first.  I'll sleep better tonight.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:43 | 95801 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

More weekend reading: Mayor Bloomberg - I will confiscate your guns, raise your taxes, and give away $1 Billion to crack heads and other 'plaintiffs".

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/brooklyn/2009/10/11/2009-10-11_crack_thugs_sue_city_get_500g_lawyers_settle_copabuse_raps_same_dealers_score_ma.html

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:55 | 95837 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

That is unbelievable... it just goes to show that the system has grown so complex and the cracks so large that the system can be exploited to this extent:

  • Members of a brazen Brooklyn crack gang raked in more than $500,000 in taxpayer money by repeatedly suing the city for civil rights violations, records show.
  • Accused drug dealers from the East 21st St. Crew and associates sued the city more than 20 times - and the city settled every time, even though many of the same people sued again and again.

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:48 | 95862 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

MnN, that has been an sub set of the economy for years.  The feds will settle many suits for 10K or less each just to save on the trouble & costs.  Over time I have seen some folks who have a modicum of knowledge do quite well indeed.  Even to the point of effecting plea deals and potential superseding indictments since all of this impacts the all important per capita calculations of incarceration.

Anywhere there is a crossroads of commerce.....

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:54 | 95912 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Agreed... we have a person who is trying to leverage us for a small settlement... a nuisance suit... it really is a big decision on whether to go down the litigation path when you know they have no basis for their claims or settle for small amount...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:30 | 95902 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

I think it's an excellent way to get your tax money back.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:34 | 95905 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

lol

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:37 | 95942 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Cost for cost.  Time for time.  Effort for effort.  Make 'em work for every copper cash GG and then make 'em work to keep it.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 10:57 | 95806 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Im posting this and hope ZH uses it for a new *Thread*...Keep in mind we bailed these TBTF...You will be outragged at the content!

http://www.scribd.com/doc/6674229/Citigroup-Mar-5-2006-Plutonomy-Report-Part-2

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:59 | 96084 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Pretty disgusting read. But I've gotten so jaded I didn't even puke a little into my mouth.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:00 | 95809 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

If the US makes it through the next two years, the realization of the combined implosion of social security, conventional pensions and 401(k) plans will finish us off around 2011.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the retiring boomers and younger elderly (65-80) turning violent.  I'm already seeing a lot more road rage of over-60 drivers (as compared to the ambling Q-tip driving that I previously saw in that group).

OMG, Celente is starting to sound realistic...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:11 | 95814 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Andy Xie is amazing to read... he really cuts to the chase... no truer words were ever spoken:

  • Trillions of dollars have been spent to buy today's stability.
  • The trick is to get the credulous masses to join the bubble game at high prices. When the bubble bursts, even though asset prices may be the same as they were at the beginning, most people lose money to the few. What's occurring now is another bubble that is again redistributing income from the masses to the few.

  • Indeed, a lot of the big shots who brought down the world are still out there running things. The lesson from the Lehman collapse seems to be, "Take whatever you can and, when it crashes, you get to keep it."

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:22 | 95823 deadhead
deadhead's picture

so much for straight shooters on Wall Street

judging from what I read out there and the growing fury, it may be possible that another form of straight shooters may be prowling cheat street

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:28 | 95826 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

as near as i can tell most of what would be considered Andy Xies peers on wall street shoot blanks.  which is why they remain on ws.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:02 | 95842 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

It must be hard to be Xie and Rosenberg... or Roach for that matter... swimming upstream when everyone is gliding by downstream is hard work...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:25 | 95825 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Yes, Andy Xie is one of my favorites. Always straightforward, sensible and a pleasure to read.

BTW, he believes China is the "mother of all bubbles" and when it pops, all hell will break loose.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:56 | 95838 bonddude
bonddude's picture

well, it's starting to slide. we'll see but the correlation to the s&p recently is spooky.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:07 | 95846 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Considering that the Chinese are the only ones buying anything anywhere (and btw, thanks for picking up the tab on Hummer), hell may be more preferable.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:33 | 95903 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

I don't know about China, but US Dollar is most definitely the "mother of all bubbles".

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:24 | 95927 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Funding the mother of all carry trades, as discussed previously.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:58 | 95950 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Miles,

Nice Layne Staley pic!  How did you like "Black Gives Way to Blue?"

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 17:38 | 96012 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Initial impression is fav.  Ask me again after the new year and it has set a bit.  BTW, I used to use "Layne" here.

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 17:28 | 96868 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Will do.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:25 | 95929 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

On the other hand, a Beijing collapse may be the only thing to help the dollar in the near and intermediate term.  But, the downside may be additional encouragement/justification for Obama to continue borrowing...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:15 | 95956 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

China might be bubbly, but they won't crash as big as the US, because at least they have some kind of support within their economy (savings, production, export).

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:25 | 95824 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I posted on a different thread but Robo's pal Rasputin (are they one and the same?) just posted over at WallStreetBear

The irrefutable case for "Inflate or Die".

http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=61917&post=206419

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:41 | 95830 Steak
Steak's picture

I am quite glad that ZH posted the Xie link but I have a quibble.  The Caijing link is almost 2 weeks old at this point.  There is little question that Caijing is one of the best sources for what is going on in China's economy.  Their reporters are truly fearless and it is a godsend that they publish an English verison of the magazine.

I check it every few days and used to send relevant links to the tip line to no avail.  That in itself is whatever but I'd hope that someone at ZH and readers who want to stay up on China check Caijing more often.  They've broken many important stories (reneging on derivative contracts anyone) and the magazine is definitely worth all our time.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:46 | 95832 deadhead
deadhead's picture

b'berg has a story about the Russian economy as a headline now....a snippet:

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s economy may contract by a “very serious” 7.5 percent this year as dependence on energy exports left the country more vulnerable to the global financial crisis than expected, President Dmitry Medvedev said.

“I must admit that we sunk below our lowest expectations,” Medvedev said in an interview to be broadcast today at 9 p.m. Moscow time on state television. “The real damage to our economy was far greater than anything predicted by ourselves, the World Bank, and other expert organizations.”

This helps to confirm suspicion in some quarters that the russians are on board with the israeli plan to have a flyover of iran...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:49 | 95834 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Explain the last sentence Deadhead... I am not drawing the connection...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:09 | 95847 deadhead
deadhead's picture

i think the eastern europe missile defense giveback to the ruskies, which they are thrilled about, was a quid pro quo for russia staying away from iran, keeping their mouths (relatively) shut, not shipping the air defense missiles to Iran.  not that the russians needed to be reminded, but if israel finally goes after iran, the russian oil registers would be ringing up big time.  russia's economic situation, even in the best of times in my view, is still structurally deficient and a constant accident waiting to happen.  the russian admission that it is getting worse is just another confirmation from my point of view.

the sabre rattling between israel and iran is reaching new levels....i'm still not convinced an attack is imminent as some others are, only because the u.s.a. is a master at kicking the can down the road.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:12 | 95851 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

That was interesting... thanks for taking the time to put that together :-)

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:06 | 95884 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

trust me, russia gave up on geopolitics a long time ago...just not that good at it. too much strategy and not enough drinking.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:26 | 95898 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Iran 's most disruptive option, should they be attacked would be to mine the  Strait of Hormuz. Therefore pre-empting that option would be the top priority by Israel and the US. Iran would be aware of this.  To that end it may well be that if feeling sufficiently threatened, Iran will likely initiate the conflict beginning with a mining operation including assaults on tankers from bases on  the islands they occupy in the Strait (Greater and Lesser Tunb).  They will no doubt be informed by the experience of Sadam's regime, which likely did not think the US would actually go through with an invasion and/or misjudged their own ability to respond (or for those who dwell in conspiracy corner, Sadam tried but was denied).  Colonel Gaddafi’s Libyan regime, which conceded to the West (the US) in late 2003 was likely motivated by the fear of a Tripoli version of Shock and Awe with no meaningful way to respond. 

Unlike Libya, the Iranian regime is in a much stronger position, and in addition to having the capability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz it would also be able to launch medium range missiles towards Israel and call on its surrogates in Gaza and Lebanon. A regional conflict in the Mid-East would severely disrupt US and NATO efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The clerics and Ahmadinejad understand that they cannot allow Israel and the US  the opportunity for a first strike, the US also understands that. Meanwhile Israel continues with its sabre rattling.   There will be a conflict sooner rather than later.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:39 | 95943 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I watched Hillary's announcement on Iran needing to deal on Nukes. She is definitelyshow pony status now. The look on her face was one of resignation as to how the world works and her status in it.  Looks like she recently received a verbal beat down...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:29 | 95962 PenGun
PenGun's picture

 If attacked Iran has promised to destroy the reactor at Dimona. It is likly they can and the resultent radioactive plume could easily reach Jerusalam.

 

 Since that threat the Israelis have sounded more reasonable.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 11:58 | 95840 bonddude
bonddude's picture

If it is bad enough oil and gold sales will follow.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:03 | 95843 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Actually, a Russian go ahead will pre-empt any attack because Iran will know they are cooked.

No attack is my bet. Obama already made a deal w/ the Russians (missile shield).

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:11 | 95849 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Obama already made a deal w/ the Russians (missile shield).

I mentioned my quid pro quo above....is there another angle on it that I am missing?  in other words, what did the USA get out of making the Russians so happy in re the missile shield pullback?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:44 | 95864 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Perhaps there has been discussion on oil flows through Georgia.  The Russians would love for the US to get bogged down in the "'stans", do the heavy lifting, then sweep in and sweep up with the Chinese when once again the US loses at home. The tried and true.  All the while backstopping Russian goals for dominating pipeline flows into Western Europe while putting the crimp on the Ukraine.

Just an observation.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:21 | 95893 deadhead
deadhead's picture

"....Russian goals for dominating pipeline flows into Western Europe...."

oh yes, the russians want the pipelines, no doubt about that!

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:13 | 95914 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And to have us help the 'stans back into their arms...

BTW, first total miss.  I suppose the FDIC is really broke now.  Cannot even afford to clear a 60m local.

Cheers.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 16:47 | 96000 deadhead
deadhead's picture

very, very telling indeed Miles.

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:22 | 95894 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

discussion there has been

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Caspian_Gas_Pipeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Afghanistan_Pipeline

the whole caspian area, big trouble is. russia pipelines go through russia want, but america like cheaper stuff with big initial investment funded with inflation money. stay and do something stupid they will.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 17:40 | 96013 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If I'm not mistaken the timing of the rumor about switching out of dollars for oil came after the news of the U.S. pulling the missile shield plan. Some might suggest the pulling of the missile plan marks the beginning of the decline in U.S. military supremacy to the oil producing countries who are now scrambling for another medium of exchange before things get much worse.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:04 | 95844 deadhead
deadhead's picture

thought of John from Structured Logic when I say this b'berg article this a.m.

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. probably fell in September as auto showrooms sat empty after the “cash for clunkers” program expired, economists said before a report this week.

Purchases dropped 2.1 percent, the biggest decrease this year, after rising 2.7 percent in August, according to the median forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures due Oct. 14. Other reports may show inflation and factory production cooled last month.

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:25 | 95858 etrader
etrader's picture

[i]The second leak occurred in the British paper The Sunday Times, which reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The second revelation was directly tied to the first. There were many, including STRATFOR, who felt that Iran did not have the non-nuclear disciplines needed for rapid progress toward a nuclear device. Putting the two pieces together, the presence of Russian personnel in Iran would mean that the Iranians had obtained the needed expertise from the Russians. It would also mean that the Russians were not merely a factor in whether there would be effective sanctions but also in whether and when the Iranians would obtain a nuclear weapon.[/i]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091005_two_leaks_and_deepening_iran_crisis

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:46 | 95866 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Further sauce for the goose of Russia and its desires to supplant the US as the guarantor of security for the western Gulf, enabling them to infulence both sides of the Gulf.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:04 | 95881 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Russia has no grand intentions. Russia just wants to be left alone, minding its vodka in the tropical paradise known as st petersburg.... Nothing to see here. Just leave the ruskies alone.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:57 | 95875 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Son, "Russian don't take a dump without a plan."  Hunt for Red October...

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:03 | 95879 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Full force Fred Thompson.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:23 | 95895 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

One Ping, and one Ping only Mr. Vasily!!! x

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:57 | 95913 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Our old "adversary", the US Navy.  Or we could do Mel Gibson's parody on the pronunciation from WWW while we let them hear singing.  Either way, one ping only is classic Sunday.  Thanx

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:38 | 95906 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

et - thanks for the link (I am surprised that Stratfor would offer that type of article without a subscription

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:51 | 95872 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2009/10/09/title_troubles...

At issue is proof of ownership at the time of a foreclosure sale. During the housing boom, millions of mortgages were bundled into bonds and sold to investors, a process that resulted in lengthy and twisted paper trails that can obscure ownership. Many lenders believed they could complete foreclosure transactions and later produce formal proof they held the mortgage.

That changed in March when Justice Keith C. Long of Massachusetts Land Court found that two foreclosures in Springfield were invalid because ownership of the mortgages was not clear at the time of the foreclosures.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:15 | 95890 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Great article... but the most comical part was:

Kathleen Engel, professor of law at Suffolk University, said the federal government should step in to help states deal with “toxic titles’’ that are clogging up the system from California to Florida.

I'm sure the federal government will fix everything right up... I wonder how much that will cost us.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:25 | 95896 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

yea this guy is way ahead of curve here...the feds stepping in is just brilliant why havent we tried it yet?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:26 | 95897 deadhead
deadhead's picture

all State courts have procedures for "quiet title" issues....of course, the foreclosing banks (those that are foreclosing, lol!) don't want to go this route as it is time consuming, expensive.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:35 | 95941 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

DH - Heck, the banks didn't even want to pay the fee to properly transfer title in the first place.  Fools.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:33 | 95937 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

The costs of rolling over these defaulted loans without the PMI payout into a FHA guaranteed loan with the old or new tax break being the down payment will be ours to bear all in the name of providing stability.  I am sure there will serious consideration to extending the max limit to a nationwide standard and rolling in 2d's & 3rd's.  What a friggin' sick waste. Let's find a natural bottom already and let firms do what they are supposed to or fail in the effort. I suppose free enterprise is just too much to ask of American business, finance or politicians.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:56 | 95874 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Well, at least I found out one thing by reading the FT article - John Dizard is a complete idiot. 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 12:58 | 95876 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

GG: define complete idiot?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:19 | 95892 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

John Dizard.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:27 | 95899 deadhead
deadhead's picture

classic GG! 

coffee up my nostrils.....

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:01 | 95916 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

A person of profound mental retardation having a mental age below three years and generally being unable to learn connected speech or guard against common dangers. The term belongs to a classification system no longer in use and is now considered offensive.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:33 | 95939 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

GG, that fool did us all a big service tho.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:41 | 95910 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

FT is a bilderberg publication. Consider it as that when reading it; more propaganda. Doesn't surprise me a bit.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:08 | 95885 Anonymous
Sun, 10/11/2009 - 22:23 | 96154 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Eau d'pain, d'pain.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:10 | 95920 AN0NYM0US
Sun, 10/11/2009 - 14:10 | 95924 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

When will CNBC start waking up? They are soooooooooooo stupid! Green shoots lol

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:41 | 95969 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

My God this Dizard!

That was quite a poor article, I must say. Quite convenient of them not to talk to any one from GATA.

He admits that the US is debasing its currency. But he fails to mention that a rising gold price also represesents humanity losing faith in fiat currencies, and in that respect, the price must be suppressed, lest the jig be found out.

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 16:15 | 95986 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Test, for dead head!

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 16:48 | 96002 deadhead
deadhead's picture

????

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:03 | 96057 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

I have been posting the Andy Xie article for about 10 days, as I think the date is 9/29 from memory.  Anyone that hasn't read it, Xie has called a top in the US market, a top in the Chinese market and is bearish.  I found a link to an article of his about 3 months ago and I anxiously await the next one.  I think people are going to be shocked when China comes unglued.  Their entire economy is unsustainable.  Xie had an article where he went into the pace of housing construction in China, with 2 billion square meters under construction (22 billion square ft and enough for about 22% of those that have yet to move to the cities) and an annual start pace of 1.5 billion. For those not too good in math, that is the equivalent of 10 million homes of 2200 feet each, a building pace of 5 times what the US peaked at in the middle of this decade.  Xie contends that China needs 8.4 billion square meters to house the entire 300 million people that remain to move to the cities at the average of 28 square meters per capita.  At the end of a little over 5 years at this pace, there would be no need for any additional housing.  This is an end of the line collapse. 

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 12:47 | 96579 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

62 Million current mortgages have been run through MERS... look at the August 28, 2009 decision in Kansas. And the older ones in NV, FL, Arkansas. Lack of clear titles is going to kill all the banks.

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